Close elections like this one are rare — and hard to predict
Conservatives, Liberals neck-and-neck in polls with 2 weeks to go, and that's unusual
Éric Grenier· CBC News· Posted: Oct 05, 2019 4:00 AM ET
Since modern political polling in Canada began around the Second World War, there have been only three examples of prolonged toss-ups: 1979, 2004 and 2015. The last one resulted in Justin Trudeau's Liberals coming to power.
We're nearly four weeks into this campaign and the polls haven't budged — meaning the Conservatives and Liberals remain neck-and-neck in national voting intentions just two weeks out from the Oct. 21 vote.
It might seem unusual that this election has remained deadlocked for so long — and it is. Only a handful of previous federal elections saw the leading parties polling this close to each other for this long.
And each of those previous elections offers some guidance as to what Canadians can expect this time.
Since modern political polling in Canada began around the Second World War, there have been only three examples of prolonged toss-ups: 1979, 2004 and 2015. While the last one resulted in Justin Trudeau's Liberals coming to power, the other two ended in short-lived minority governments.
Those three cases show what could happen between now and election day: an unpredictable outcome, a surprise result that defies the polls or a volatile final two weeks in which the electoral landscape shifts.
After 11 years in office and facing skyrocketing inflation and high unemployment, Pierre Trudeau's Liberals were facing headwinds as they headed into the 1979 federal election. The Progressive Conservatives surged in the polls after choosing Joe Clark as their leader in 1976, but by the end of 1978 the PCs and Liberals were neck-and-neck in the polls.
That close race held straight through to the May election. With roughly two weeks to go before the vote, Gallup put the Liberals and PCs within one point of each other. The final polls of the campaign put the two parties in a literal tie — the final Gallup survey showed 37.5 per cent for both parties.
The 1979 leaders' debate featured Ed Broadbent of the NDP, left, Pierre Trudeau of the Liberals, centre, and Joe Clark of the Progressive Conservatives. (Peter Bregg/The Canadian Press)
The polls were not far off the result on election night. The Liberals captured 40 per cent of the vote, and the PCs came in with 36 per cent. But the Liberal vote was inefficient — Trudeau's party captured 62 per cent of the vote in Quebec and 67 of the province's 75 seats, but was beaten in Ontario and elected only three MPs in Western Canada.
Despite losing the popular vote, Clark's PCs won more seats: 136 to the Liberals' 114. His wobbly minority government survived less than a year. Trudeau's Liberals returned with a majority in 1980.
That is one scenario that could play out in 2019. The polls might continue to show a neck-and-neck race through to election day, and the result could be counterintuitive. The Poll Tracker consistently has shown the Conservatives leading (if narrowly) in national voting intentions but trailing the Liberals in the seat projection.
Alberta and Saskatchewan could play the role for Andrew Scheer's Conservatives that Quebec played for Pierre Trudeau's Liberals in 1979 — giving him lots of extra votes that pump up his national numbers but do not help him win extra seats in the rest of the country.
2004: Liberals lose their majority, defy the polls
Jean Chrétien was no longer prime minister, but the Liberals had been in power for over a decade when Paul Martin sent the country to the polls in 2004. Once seen as unstoppable, Martin's Liberals had been hobbled by the sponsorship scandal and were no longer facing a divided opposition after the PCs and Canadian Alliance merged to form the Conservative Party at the end of 2003.
The polls suggested it was going to be close when Canadians voted in June. While a few polls suggested the Liberals had the edge over Stephen Harper's Conservatives, on average the gap between the two parties in the final weeks of the campaign was less than a percentage point.
Paul Martin led his Liberals to victory in 2004, but was reduced to a minority government. (Christinne Muschi/Reuters)
Ipsos-Reid, polling for CTV and the Globe and Mail, gave the Liberals just a one-point advantage over the Conservatives, but estimated that Harper had the best chance of winning more seats. The Canadian Press called it "too close to call". Three days before the election, the Globe and Mail ran a banner headline: "DEAD HEAT."
In the end, it wasn't. The Liberals beat the Conservatives by seven percentage points nationwide and won 135 seats to the Conservatives' 99. That limited Martin to a minority government — Martin would be defeated 18 months later — but it was still a clear Liberal victory.
That could happen again in 2019. By Oct. 21, the polls could still be showing a close race. Polling error, last-minute voter decisions or significant turnout effects could produce a result very different from what the polls are showing. This is why the Poll Tracker shows a wide range of potential outcomes — when it's this close, even small differences between the polls and the results can have big consequences.
2015: Neck and neck (and neck), until it wasn't
The last campaign is remembered for its volatility. The New Democrats started as the front-runners, only to be overtaken by the Liberals, who were swept to a surprising majority government. What few people remember now is that the biggest shifts happened in the last weeks of the campaign.
Throughout September, the election was a three-way toss-up — something unique in Canadian federal election history. At the beginning of that month, only three percentage points separated first place (Tom Mulcair's NDP) from third place (Justin Trudeau's Liberals). By the end of the month, the gap was just five points, though the NDP had fallen to third and the Conservatives had moved into first.
When Stephen Harper, left, Trudeau, centre, and Tom Mulcair faced off in a debate at the end of September 2015, their three parties were neck-and-neck-and-neck in the polls. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)
It was still only marginal movement. It took two months for the Liberals to gain four points nationwide. But that movement accelerated in the last few weeks, with the Liberals averaging an increase of about three to four points in each of the last two weeks of the campaign. Polls done over the final days suggested the Liberals were approaching majority territory, but only a few surveys suggested they had crossed that threshold.
This is the final scenario that could play out over the next two weeks — and there is significant potential for it. Unlike in 2015, when the final debate was held 17 days before the election, there will be two debates held in the coming week before the long Thanksgiving weekend. That could shift the numbers in a big way — enough to produce a Liberal majority, a Conservative majority or anything in between.
So the 2019 campaign is unusual but not unique. History gives us no clear picture of what to expect. We'll have to wait another two weeks for history to be made again.
Éric Grenier is a senior writer and the CBC's polls analyst. He was the founder of ThreeHundredEight.com and has written for The Globe and Mail, Huffington Post Canada, The Hill Times, Le Devoir, and L’actualité.
Éric Grenier Polls Analyst Some thoughts on the two leaders I was tasked to keep an eye on:
Bernier wasn't particularly present during the latter two-thirds of the debate, but he was front-and-centre at the outset when more people might have been tuning in. Whether or not they liked what he had to say, this was probably the biggest audience Bernier has ever had. We'll see if that manages to get his party off the floor in terms of support, but there was no particular moment that stands out for me as a catalyst for a significant bump."
David Raymond Amos Out the gate Trudeau didn't answer the question and Sheer blew it Bernier answered the question and now he is responding to the media's attack very well
David Raymond Amos Methinks Bernier may steal the show at the Circus ce soir even if it is in English N'esy Pas?
Glenn Foster The gap is much bigger than the leftist media is predicting. They know it and I expect many more negative Conservative stories in the coming weeks.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @Glenn Foster: Methinks the one thing the pollsters all know for certain and that is the fat lady ain't sung yet and she does so the only after the last poll has been tallied on election night N'esy Pas?
Dayton Funk Reply to @Glenn Foster: Harbouring a fugitive is against the law and the MSM has been doing similar for the past 4 + years. Trudeau has a story to tell but now he's in a position to block it out with injunctions and other court challenges. He even paid MSM to protect him to keep it low so he can squander and pillage another 4. We can't let him lead another term. He's destroying Canada for personal monetary gain.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Dayton Funk: Methinks he is about to win another mandate clearly much to your chagrin N'esy Pas?
Kevan Cleverbridge Realizing that the Trudeau Liberals are one and done,Eric has decided to spin the minority game with his polling numbers. Canadians cannot afford another 4 years of Justin.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @Kevan Cleverbridge: At the risk of being redundant you know as well as i that the Fat lady ain't sung yet no matter what the Eric dude tries to predict Correct?
Charles Waggon Reply to @david mccaig: Whether provincially in Canada, or states elsewhere around the world, leftist governments have almost always been bad for their jurisdictions. Many can remember Rae days, and the Wynne failures. The liberals have gone from being progressive, to a leftist party with decision making power centred at the very top, and woe betide any member who doesn't toe the party line. Not my idea of democracy
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Charles Waggon: Methinks with any luck at all Bernier may cause a stampede this evening with his chuck wagon full of hard right wing rhetoric and delivered up in English no less. If he does I bet that will make your day all next week N'esy Pas?
Mayna Rose Rose Westcott let’s stop Justin Trudeau and his team October 21
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Mayna Rose Rose Westcott: Better yet Lets stop all the teams and don't vote incumbents and vote for as many Independents as possible
David Mccaig Reply to @Mayna Rose Rose Westcott: "let’s stop Justin Trudeau and his team October 21 " that's NOT going to happen, UNLIKE Stephen Harper , Trudeau's not disliked enough.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @david mccaig: Methinks Trudeau the Younger is not very popular in Fundy Royal and you can trust that I will do my best to make it worse for all the political parties not just the liberals N'esy Pas?
Bort Smith This election is strange. It seems issues that we find important like cost of living and climate policy repeatedly are side lined and givien little attention by the press in favor of other nonsense that we moved passed decades ago or just don't care about. I.e. The endless abortion articles and "alphabet" articles.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @Bort Smith: Welcome to the Circus I love playing my part in Fundy Royal again much to the chagrin of all the political parties
Bort Smith Reply to @david mccaig: Being so patriotic I'm sure that you appreciate that Scheer has also sworn allegiance to our Queen. Have you done that? I did in my old job.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Bort Smith: Methinks you must be upset that I sued your boss while running against Harper and all the rest in 2015 Its probably the reason your ignored N'esy Pas?
Gary McCollom The choice is clear, support the middle class and ethical government or another 4 years of liberal drama and unethical behavior.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @Gary McCollom: Where have I heard that before?
Fundy Royal campaign targets middle class with focus on jobs Fundy Royal voters have elected Conservatives all but 1 time in 28 elections over 101 years CBC News · Posted: Oct 17, 2015
Gary McCollom Reply to @David Raymond Amos: How many times have our public service unions endorsed a conservative goverment?.....crickets...
Tim Klassen
Reply to @Sandy Gillis: How "funny" you were responding to a post criticing partisan cheerleading, and then you go ahead and do exactly that. You misrepresent and extrapolate negatively almost all of Scheer's positions. Fair and balanced you are not, just another liberal partisan.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Gary McCollom: Methinks they always support the NDP and everybody knows Mulcair blew their only chance to ever win a federal mandate and now they are toast and even Notley won't vote for them correct? I bet you will hear more crickets N'esy Pas?
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Tim Klassen: BINGO
John Towler Two planes tell a big story of who the liberals really are
David Raymond Amos Reply to @John Towler: Nobody cares
Bob Rogers You know even branded liberals on here are like, what did he do now? How much more spinning can I do for this guy, I'm tired.
David Raymond Amos
Reply to @Bob Rogers: Me Too But I am still enjoying the circus far more than Mr Butts is Of that I have no doubt.
Joseph Cluster The parties are "SO" focused on their past, little on what's in Canada's best interest. This is what they're up to now, airing the dirty laundry list, showing little interest in our future.
David Raymond Amos Reply to @Joseph Cluster: Methinks thats par for the course when it comes to the wicked game I call hard ball politicking N'esy Pas?
