It remains unclear whether Premier Blaine Higgs will allow the legislature to go the distance or go the polls.

Normally MLAs would spend weeks debating legislation this fall and vote on a new budget next March, then continue sitting through to an adjournment next June.

Higgs may instead opt to load today's Speech from the Throne with good-news announcements and then dissolve the legislature within days for the early election he's been hinting about, says Opposition Liberal Leader Susan Holt.

Asked when he'll decide on an election call, Premier Blaine Higgs said Monday it 'depends how things go in caucus. I guess that would be the answer to that. But so far, so good.' (CBC)

Another rumour she said she has heard is he'd inject something into the throne speech that six rebellious Progressive Conservative MLAs would feel obligated to vote against — triggering an election that he could blame on them.

Higgs told CBC News in Ottawa on Monday night that the new session will open as scheduled but he wouldn't commit to much more than that, saying it would hinge on his MLAs.

"We're delivering the throne speech, so we're looking forward to that. I expect all of them, everyone, to be present," he said.

Asked when he'll decide on an election call, he said it "depends how things go in caucus. I guess that would be the answer to that. But so far, so good." 

New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt says Higgs has to make a decision one way or the other about an election. (Ed Hunter/CBC)

Holt said Monday that Higgs needs to make up his mind. 

"We're spending a lot of time spinning our wheels wondering whether the premier's going to call an election, when we could be actually providing people with affordable housing or putting civil servants to work trying to deliver health care to New Brunswickers," she said.

"Some of us are really tired of this and want him to decide, make it clear and get on with it." 

Green Leader David Coon also considers those two scenarios to be the most likely.

"I don't think we'll be there very long because this premier wants to call an election and he's looking for the first opportunity to do so," Coon said.

Green Party Leader David Coon said he doesn't think the new session of the legislature will last long. (Shane Fowler/CBC)

Six PC MLAs voted with Holt's Liberals in June on their motion calling on the government to hold more consultations with the child and youth advocate on Policy 713, which sets out guidelines for creating safe spaces for LGBTQ students in provincial schools.

Higgs sidelined those MLAs for the summer, refusing to meet them as a group. Two resigned from his cabinet and two others, who were ministers, were shuffled out.

The premier announced Sept. 15 he'll lead the PC party into the next election, which is officially scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024.

But he said the day of that announcement that the recalcitrance of the six MLAs — who would hold the balance of power in the legislature if they voted as a bloc — remained "a big concern."

From top left to right, Andrea Anderson-Mason, Trevor Holder, Dorothy Shephard, Daniel Allain, Ross Wetmore and Jeff Carr. The six PC MLAs broke ranks with Higgs in June over changes to Policy 713, the gender-identity policy for schools, and were not at Tuesday's meeting. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

Those six MLAs have since committed, to varying degrees, to support him on confidence votes and on legislation in order to avoid forcing New Brunswickers to the polls.

But Higgs said earlier this month that the very fact those MLAs signed a collective pledge to that effect in August shows they're operating as "an independent group" that could break ranks with him.

"A government cannot function in this manner," he said.

The six MLAs turned down or did not not respond to interview requests from CBC News on Monday.

Holt said she expects the session to be as dramatic and chaotic as the final week of sitting days in June.

That saw the vote by the six MLAs, followed by the withdrawal of a government bill that would have taken away decision-making powers from anglophone district education councils.

"I haven't seen any change from the premier, and this is a drama of his own causing," Holt said.

"He is focused on what he thinks is best and is not prepared to listened to his own team members or anyone else." 

The Liberals and Greens offered similar lists of issues they plan to focus on in the new session, including the cost of living, health care, housing and the environment.

The Speech from the Throne, delivered Tuesday, urges New Brunswickers to reject "misinformation that stokes fear, distrust and division."

It also avoids any provocative new statements or promises about Policy 713, which sets out standards for LGBTQ-positive classrooms in provincial schools.

Changes to that policy in the spring sparked a revolt in the Progressive Conservative caucus, leading Premier Blaine Higgs to threaten a snap election this fall to end the instability in his government.

Opponents of the review of Policy 713 demonstrated outside the New Brunswick legislature in June. (Radio-Canada)

Higgs mused during the summer about invoking the Constitution's notwithstanding clause to shield his changes from a legal challenge.

Those changes, which require parents give consent if their children want to change their names or pronouns, are now the subject of a court action.

Tuesday's speech does not commit the government to using the clause and simply restates Higgs's earlier comments in generic language.

"As we work together, your government is committed to creating a safe and welcoming learning environment for all students, while still respecting the role of parents," said the speech drafted by the government and read by Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy.

Misinformation warning

In another section, the speech notes that the New Brunswick Human Rights Commission has warned of misinformation fuelling polarization.

"We must never condone violence, intimidation or intolerance in any form. In order to move forward, it is important that we keep communicating in a respectful way and that we show acceptance of one another." 

Six PC MLAs voted with the Liberal and Green opposition in June to pass a motion calling for further consultations on Policy 713 by New Brunswick's child and youth advocate — who later issued a scathing report calling the changes a human rights violation.

From top left to right, Andrea Anderson-Mason, Trevor Holder, Dorothy Shephard, Daniel Allain, Ross Wetmore and Jeff Carr. The six PC MLAs broke ranks with Higgs in June over changes to Policy 713, the gender-identity policy for schools. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

The Canadian Civil Liberties Association has launched a legal challenge to the move, and any talk of short-circuiting that case might lead some of those six MLAs to break ranks again in a vote on the throne speech Oct. 27.

A defeat on the throne speech vote would trigger an election.

Instead there were signs Tuesday that both Higgs and one of the six breakaway MLAs were trying to patch up the feud.

Higgs told CBC News that a Monday caucus meeting that included the six MLAs "went fine," and one of those MLAs, Daniel Allain, called it "very positive."

"I want to work with the government. That's why I'm here today," Allain told reporters.

"We had a good discussion. Not everything gets sorted out in one day. But I hope, I'm convinced we'll have a good Throne Speech today," said Allain, who represents Moncton East.

"At the end of the day we're part of one party. It's called the Progressive Conservative party. It's important for me to be that progressive part and we're going to have a great throne speech today." 

Asked if he was still a member of the group of six MLAs who rebelled in June, Allain said, "There's no 'member of the six.' I'm part of the Progressive Conservative caucus." 

The next election is officially scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024, but nothing prevents Higgs from calling one early. 

In either scenario, Tuesday's throne speech is the last one of the government's mandate and it mostly recaps initiatives the Tories have already launched.

There are two nods to new moves to address the high cost of living.

The speech promises a new legislated "spike protection mechanism" to cap property tax increases at 10 per cent in 2025. The housing strategy released earlier this year included a promise to "explore" making it permanent.

And the speech says the government "will consider additional improvements" to income tax and property tax legislation to ensure the province "remains attractive and competitive."

Finance Minister Ernie Steeves promised on Sept. 27 to deliver new measures "fairly soon" to provide relief from high inflation and said his preference was tax cuts.