The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters on Thursday increased the likelihood of an above-normal season to 60 per cent, which is up from a 30 per cent chance in the outlook the agency issued in May.

The earlier projection of 12 to 17 named storms has now increased to 14 to 21 storms.

Of those storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes. Of those, two to five may become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.

NOAA is now projecting a 60 per cent chance of an above-normal hurricane season. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

It's important to remember that these outlooks are for overall season activity, not storms that make landfall.

Heading into the season, it was thought that a developing El Niño could limit tropical storms and hurricane activity. When a cooler-water El Niño event is underway in the Pacific, stronger wind shear occurs over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This wind shear can suppress the development and growth of tropical storms and hurricanes.

While El Niño has developed, its impacts on the tropical region are now looking less likely to counterbalance the other major factor of this season — warm ocean temperatures.

While temperatures in the North Atlantic were expected to be above average, the record warmth in the basin has been making headlines over the past few months. 

Sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic have been setting records for much of 2023. (Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine)

Warmer-than-average temperatures in the main tropical development region are expected to be a key factor for the remainder of the hurricane season. (Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine)

While the largest sea-surface temperature anomalies are currently around Atlantic Canada and Greenland, the tropical Atlantic and main storm development region is also running well above average.

The warmer ocean temperatures in the tropics will be key, with the West African monsoon season expected to be near-to-above average.

Large areas of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa are the seeds for tropical systems, especially when they roll into ocean water that is running warmer than normal.

    El Niño is looking less likely to counter the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

While we can't ultimately tell where and when these storms will occur, we do know that the month of September is historically the most active.

Hurricane season peaks in September in the Atlantic Ocean. (NOAA)

With damage from post-tropical storms Fiona in 2022 and Dorian in 2019 fresh on the minds of Atlantic Canadians, we really don't need a reminder of how destructive these storms can be.

The updated outlook is a good reminder that the time to be ready and prepared is almost here.

It was supposed to begin at 6 a.m. Wednesday, said Luc LeBlanc, fisheries adviser with the Maritime Fishermen's Union. 

But he said weather conditions — including high winds and relatively high waves — made it impossible to start putting out traps.

"Our problem right now is the system that's going into northern New Brunswick, it still has an effect on the Northumberland Strait," he said.

Luc LeBlanc, fisheries adviser with the Maritime Fishermen's Union, said Saturday looks so-so in terms of weather, but when it comes to setting day, he said it is better to 'err on the side of caution.' (Jeorge Sadi/CBC)

The union and Fisheries and Oceans Canada met Wednesday afternoon to discuss whether the season could begin on Friday, but LeBlanc said it was determined to be unsafe. They'll meet again on Thursday at 10 a.m. to see if Saturday would be a better day.

"We need at least a good 48 hours in advance to load the boats and to make sure the fish plants are ready to greet all this lobster."

He said it is important to have optimal weather conditions for the first day of the season, also known as "setting day." This is because on that first day, the vessels will have an unusually large load on board, including around 250 traps as well as ropes and buoys.

It's important to have extremely stable weather conditions to account for the destabilization of the boats on that day, said LeBlanc, unlike during the rest of the season when the boats won't be carrying as much gear.

LeBlanc said every day not spent on the water, especially at the beginning of the season, will cost fishermen money because they won't have any lobster on board. (Radio-Canada)

LeBlanc said Saturday looks so-so in terms of weather, but when it comes to setting day, he said it is better to "err on the side of caution."

Delay means lost revenue

So far, Sunday is looking like the first good window, but because fishermen don't usually fish on Sundays, he said it's possible that the first day might have to wait until Monday.

Every day not spent on the water is a day that the fishermen won't have landings, meaning lobster on board, costing them money, LeBlanc said. 

"We're looking at, you know, pretty impressive revenue losses from every single lost day, especially at the beginning of the year, because that's when landings will be at their highest," he said.

Even with an extension at the end of the season, LeBlanc said that still won't make up for the landings lost during the first couple of weeks. 

LeBlanc said it is frustrating for the fishermen to have to stay ashore for weather, but it is also "part of the job."

"These guys know that you know, taking undue risks is not a safe thing to do in this industry. So people are … taking the pain in stride, but it is painful to not be able to go fish," he said.

"We're going to go day-by-day until we get a window that's safe."