https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-wednesday-edition-1.5246796/snc-lavalin-report-vindicates-jody-wilson-raybould-says-political-scientist-1.5246798
SNC-Lavalin report vindicates Jody Wilson-Raybould, says political scientist
David Moscrop says nobody comes off as 'deeply nefarious' in the ethics commissioner's report
The ethics commissioner's report completely vindicates former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould, says a political science professor — but it still doesn't give us any clear heroes and villains in the SNC-Lavalin affair.
In a report released on Wednesday, Mario Dion found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act in 2018 when he tried to pressure then-justice minister Wilson-Raybould to overrule a federal prosecutor's decision to send Quebec-based engineering firm SNC-Lavalin to trial on corruption charges.
Trudeau told reporters that while he accepts the report and takes full responsibility for what happened, he disagrees with some of Dion's conclusions.
David Moscrop, a political scientist and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Ottawa, says Dion makes a strong case against Trudeau, but there's still no "smoking gun."
Here is part of his conversation with As It Happens guest host Nil Köksal.
We've all been poring through the 63 pages of the ethics commissioner's report. But in a nutshell for our listeners, break down the key points.
There's a couple of things that stand out as new and remarkable, and one of them is that in the course of his investigation the ethics commissioner, Mr. Dion, had a hard time getting access to all of the documents that he needed to carry out the investigation.
That's a significant problem. I think that's an indictment of the system to some extent.
But the broader, more interesting takeaway is that this is the first time the entire affair has been laid out in one place in comprehensive detail. And it is ultimately a narrative that backs up Jody Wilson-Raybould's story, that she was pressured consistently and inappropriately to intervene.
Politics News
Trudeau says "the buck stops with the Prime Minister"
She's just released a statement on her Facebook page using the word "vindication." It's a word that some other analysts have used as we waited for her response. What do you make of what she said in response?
Please see the statement from the Hon. Jody Wilson-Raybould, M.P. for Vancouver Granville on the release of the Trudeau II Report of the Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner.
It's a word I have been using all day. It's a word that kept rolling across my mind as I read through the report earlier today. It reads like a vindication of everything that she has said publicly after February [and] everything that she had been concerned about in the events that led up to February.
He makes the distinction, Dion does, that just trying to influence the decision of another person — speaking to the attorney general — doesn't violate the Code, this Section 9. But that trying to promote the interests, private interests of another person, that's the key here.
He lays out three instances ... in which there was undue or inappropriate pressure placed on Jody Wilson-Raybould as attorney general. To me, that is not quite, I think, what you call a smoking gun, but certainly a persuasive case made that there had been a contravention of Section 9.
Take us through those points.
The first was Michael Wernick, who was then head of the Privy Council, bringing up SNC-Lavalin's impending board meeting and mentioning economic consequences.
And of course then the others were [Trudeau] mentioning the federal election and mentioning the Quebec election.
Ethics commissioner Mario Dion released a report Wednesday concluding that Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act in the SNC-Lavalin Affair. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)
That was a line from the Liberals repeatedly — there are 9,000 jobs to be protected in Quebec, that those would be lost if SNC-Lavalin faced a corruption trial. We heard the prime minister hint at that again. He is sticking to that argument.I think one of the interesting challenges in this whole affair is that we want a caricature of people. Observers like when it's black and white or when there's a villain and a hero.
I think the truth is, reading through this report, looking back on the committee testimony, reading reports that were released in stories in February and March, what you see as human beings in the middle of a political system who are acting for a whole bunch of different reasons — some of them you would say were perfectly consistent with their roles and with the Conflict of Interest Act, and some that weren't. And what Mr. Dion has highlighted in this report are the ones that weren't.
At the end of the day. we'd like for things to be clean and direct and simple, but I don't think anyone is deeply nefarious in any of this. Misguided, definitely. Part of a toxic political culture, no doubt. But it certainly comes off as slightly more complicated than you might think.
Politics News
Singh says Trudeau cannot be Prime Minister
But Canadians are trying to make up their minds, right? Ten weeks before an election. So the timing of all this is critical. It could work for or against Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals. What do you make of the timing?
My working hypothesis is that this was deemed as a priority and something that was in the public interest to release sooner rather than later.
Although I can't imagine that the thought hadn't crossed someone's mind in the ethics office that after a certain point, as we approach the election, it gets politically pretty dicey to release it.
We don't want a Comey letter in Canada, right? So if this came out in October, it would have been a massive problem.
Could this sway or decide the election in your view?
My sense is that it's certainly going to do the Liberals no favours. It's going to make what was already a very difficult task getting re-elected even more difficult. It's going to confirm a lot of what people already believe.
I don't know how many minds are going to get changed because of this. I suspect most people sort of made up their mind about SNC back in the spring and early summer, and I don't imagine much is going to change.
But it's going to distract quite a bit. So there's going to be things that the Liberals want to talk about that they no longer get to talk about, or get to talk about far less.
It's also going to motivate opponents. We've already seen the energy coming from Jagmeet Singh and Andrew Scheer already today. It's going to motivate them going forward.
Written by Sheena Goodyear with files from John Paul Tasker and The Canadian Press. Interview produced by Jeanne Armstrong. Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.
135 Comments
David R. Amos
Methinks David Moscrop does not know the whole story but CBC certainly does N'esy Pas?
https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @alllibertynews and 49 others
Methinks posting a comment on this news item would go unnoticed just like a fart in a blizzard N'esy Pas?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-snc-ethics-commissioner-violated-code-1.5246551
'I take responsibility,' Trudeau says in wake of damning report on SNC-Lavalin ethics violation
Ethics commissioner Mario Dion says Trudeau inappropriately tried to influence Jody Wilson-Raybould
· CBC News· Posted: Aug 14, 2019 11:15 AM ET
17913 Comments
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @alllibertynews and 49 others
Methinks the obvious answer is YUP N'esy Pas?
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2019/08/a-prime-ministers-office-drunk-on-its.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-snclavalin-polls-1.5247244
Is Trudeau in for another hit in the polls because of the SNC-Lavalin ethics report?
3435 Comments
Jerry Kleiner
Its quite amusing that when the ethics commission comes out in its report, our PM is saying "I made mistakes" When the issue was actually playing itself out, he claimed that he did nothing wrong and didnt know about the phone call.
Frankly and unfortunately, Trudeau has not been a good PM in so many areas and he really has a very hard time telling the truth.
Basically, we have a choice to try Scheer or go with a proven failure. I am going with Scheer this time and truly regret voting for Mr. Trudeau last time
David R. Amos
Reply to @jerry kleiner: Methinks you should ask Mr Scheer why I sued the Queen when he was the Speaker N'esy Pas?
David Mccaig
Reply to @jerry kleiner:
IF Andrew Scheer and the cons are as attactive to the Canadian voter as they claim, they should be ROCKETING AHEAD AT THE POLLS, but they're not, because Andrew Scheer is about as inspiring as and UNDERTAKER, which is what Canada would need if the cons ran the economy
David R. Amos
Reply to @david mccaig: Methinks the question is "Is Trudeau in for another hit in the polls because of the SNC-Lavalin ethics report?"
The obvious answer is YUP N'esy Pas?
The obvious answer is YUP N'esy Pas?
George Jefferson
When I got home from work yesterday and read the Ethics story I instantly flipped to the BBC and it was the 2nd top story. If we vote this clown in we will be the laughing stock of the world and rightly so.
David R. Amos
Reply to @George Jefferson: Welcome to the Circus
Stephen David
Trudeau's sunny ways are over in October.....yesterday sealed the deal.
David Kirby
It really does not matter. This latest twist simply confirms what we know about Trudeau and how he will be remembered
David R. Amos
Reply to @david kirby: Methinks its not over until the Fat Lady sings two months from now N'esy Pas?
Rob Preston
I must say the picture says it all. Trudeau,s minions will back anything he does. But the rest of Canadians are sick of the arrogant lack of respect. Good bye and Good riddance.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Rob Preston: Methinks if they elect Harper 2.0 they will have similar regrets in short order N'esy Pas? (Perhaps folks should read my lawsuit before they disagree)
Peter Ray
Reply to @David R. Amos:
Does it contain words with more than two syllables?
Does it contain words with more than two syllables?
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Ray: YUP Federal Court File No T-1557-15
Jaysen Blake
Not if CBC and other Trudeau funded media companies have anything to do with it.
Lloyd Jones
Reply to @Jaysen Blake:
Every government and their supporters (especially Conservative ones) likes to whine about the CBC because it tells the truth about them when they screw up or are caught doing the wrong thing. Harper had his time with the Duffy affair. Right now it's Trudeau's turn. I don't see the CBC painting lipstick on the SNC-Lavalin pig.
Every government and their supporters (especially Conservative ones) likes to whine about the CBC because it tells the truth about them when they screw up or are caught doing the wrong thing. Harper had his time with the Duffy affair. Right now it's Trudeau's turn. I don't see the CBC painting lipstick on the SNC-Lavalin pig.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Lloyd Jones: Yea Right
Claire Hope
Sounds more serious than the 2 years of calling the conservative names over 1 glass of orange juice
Rowan Carster
Reply to @Claire Hope: Now that and if Harper ate or pocketed a wafer in wafergate are scandals and important issues, according to Libs this is not important.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Rowan Carster: Methinks everybody knows Harper pocketed the wafer N'esy Pas?
John Chester
If people can't see this PM is the biggest lair in government today and needs to be removed then there is no hope for these people or Canada.
Nicolas Krinis
Reply to @John Chester: There is no hope for Canada. The most divisive, ethically challenged PM in our history.
James Holden
Reply to @Nicolas Krinis:
No. Harper still holds that title by a wide margin. Mulroney is second.
David R. Amos
Reply to @James Holden: Methinks many would agree that Sir John A. Macdonald is the all time champ in that regard N'esy Pas?
Garry Walton
All ethical Canadians want a Prime Minister that tells the truth.
Larry LeBlanc
Reply to @Garry Walton: Name one that ever has....
David R. Amos
Reply to @Larry LeBlanc: R.B. Bennett
Peter Vanderkellin
The BIG hit at the polls comes in October - when selfie goes back to teaching drama part time.
Patrick Morris
Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin: At least he had a real job. Look at Scheer's, Ford's and Kenney's resumés: nothing but political pork.
David R. Amos
Reply to @patrick morris: True
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @alllibertynews and 49 others
Jody Wilson-Raybould thinks she is above the law Trudeau and his lawyers cannot deny that Bill Pentney's fellow judges used Rule 55 against me illegally in October of 2017 after JWR appointed her Deputy Minister to the Federal Court EH?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/ethics-report-1.5247595
A Prime Minister's Office drunk on its own arrogance: Robyn Urback
3069 Comments
Rob Burr
Why is it Trudeau will apologize tor things that happened in the past, even events before Confederation which he had nothing to do with but he can't apologize for things he does? He is the most arrogant PM ever, confirming he thinks he is above the law.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Rob Burr: Methinks Jody Wilson-Raybould thinks she is above the law as well. Mr Prime Minister Trudeau The Younger and his lawyers cannot deny that Bill Pentney's fellow judges used Rule 55 against me illegally in October of 2017 after JWR had appointed her Deputy Minister to the Bench In Federal Court N'esy Pas?
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos:Mr. N'esy Pas is out of his mom's basement again.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: Methinks... I just pmsl :)
David R. Amos
Reply to @Louren Organzo Methinks the old Sook missed one N'esy Pas?
Terry Mann
The mans arrogance has no bounds. Doesn't deserve to represent the people of Canada.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Terry Mann: Nor do any of the party leaders
Ra Shawn-Ell
Reply to @David R. Amos: Voting has always been about holding your nose and picking the least terrible one
Rod Begin
Trudeau has no ethics and has stated falsehoods numerous times, good article Robin!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Rod Begin: Methinks the real question is does Robin have an understanding of ethics N'esy Pas?
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos: That's number two, N'esy Pas.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: You are killin' me !!!
Louren Organzo
Reply to @Fred Sook: Okay Fred but you are in danger of being muted for the same reason DRA was muted months ago ... its annoying no matter who does it.
Fred Sook
Reply to @Louren Organzo: N'esy Pas?
Louren Organzo
Reply to @Fred Sook: Okay, you win, mute it is
Steve Saunders
this is the first honest article from the cbc since this all began.
Cameron David
Reply to @Steve Saunders: Robyn must feel very isolated at the CBC... every other journalist wearing red shirts on casual friday.
Rich Reist
Reply to @Steve Saunders: this is an opinion piece, not a news article.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Steve Saunders: Methinks CBC still needs to learn how to tell the whole truth N'esy Pas?
Steve Saunders
Reply to @Rich Reist: it's the first honest opinion then.
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos: Number three, N'esy Pas.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: Bravo !!
David R. Amos
Reply to @Fred Sook: Methinks I should have no doubt that you are kin to the latest Lt Gov on the Rock N'esy Pas?
Jake Devries
Reply to @Fred Sook: It is annoying, n'est pas?? lol
Kent Worthy
I woke up this morning fully expecting to see a headline that said PM Trudeau resigns.
Apparently, he doesn't understand doing right from wrong.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Kent Worthy: Surely you jest
Alexei Jovi
Reply to @David R. Amos: Surely you need to stop being a LEECH from the maritimes
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alexei Jovi: Methinks you should come on down and run against me and tell me off during the debates N'esy Pas?
Roger Walliams
and the very sad thing is that his disciples will still vote for him in october. sad
David R. Amos
Reply to @roger walliams: Methinks that par for the course N'esy Pas?
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos: Number four, N'esy Pas.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: :)
Mark Axworthy
Trudeau has lost the moral authority to govern.George Perry
Reply to @Mark Axworthy: One can not lose something one has never had.
David R. Amos
Reply to @George Perry: Oh So True
Rob Burr
I hope the RCMP really take a deep look into this and not just sluff it off as nothing happened.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Rob Burr: Dream on
Alexei Jovi
Reply to @David R. Amos: Awww an angry Maritimer that wants FREE MONEY and only wants IRVING and government to be the only employer
David R. Amos
Reply to @Alexei Jovi: Methinks it blatantly obvious to all that you don't know who I am N'esy Pas?
Dave
Yet the Liberal panel decided there was nothing to investigate?
Come on Canada. Wake up.
David R. Amos
Come on Canada. Wake up.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Dave: Methinks the awful truth is nobody cares N'esy Pas?
Peter Vanderkellin
I know we can't say the "L" word here - but its quite obvious that selfie was "L"ing six months ago.
He's no leader, and deserves to be tossed to the curb come October.
He's no leader, and deserves to be tossed to the curb come October.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin: Methinks many would agree that nobody is telling the truth N'esy Pas?
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos: Number five, N'esy Pas.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: :*
Daniel Leroux
Comes from a station in society where money trumps morals and ethics.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Daniel Leroux: Methinks Mr Prime Minister Trudeau The Younger and all his political foes know the Golden Rule is "He With the Gold Makes the Rules" N'esy Pas?
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos: Number six, N'esy Pas.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: LMAO
Fred Sook
Reply to @Douglas Westover: Yes. He is. N'esy Pas?
Peter Vanderkellin
The headline says: "He L'd" (we aren't allowed to use the "L" word here, no matter HOW true it is)
He L'd, not just once, but over and over and over again.
Selfie deserves to be cast to the curb come october.
David R. Amos
Reply to @Peter Vanderkellin: Methinks all the party leaders need to fess up before October N'esy Pas?
Fred Sook
Reply to @David R. Amos: Number seven, N'esy Pas.
Douglas Westover
Reply to @Fred Sook: Thank you. You just made my week :)
Fred Sook
Reply to @Douglas Westover: You are most welcome. N'esy Pas?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-snclavalin-polls-1.5247244
Is Trudeau in for another hit in the polls because of the SNC-Lavalin ethics report?
Liberal support dropped 7 points after controversy broke, and has yet to fully recover
With little more than two months to go before Canadians head to the polls, the Liberals might have thought the SNC-Lavalin affair was behind them.
So much for that.
When the story initially broke in February, the impact on the Liberals' electoral fortunes was significant — an impact the party hadn't quite recovered from even before Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion published his damning findings yesterday.
Dion found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act by trying to influence then-justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould and get her to overrule a decision to not grant a deferred prosecution agreement to the large Quebec-based engineering firm.
It's an open question whether the Liberals will take another hit in the polls now that the SNC-Lavalin affair has made its way back into the news. It's also an open question whether they could survive another blow like that one.
In early February, before polls started registering the impact of the story first reported by the Globe and Mail, the Liberals enjoyed a four-point lead over the Conservatives. The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker estimated that the Liberals were still in a good position to win another majority government, even if reduced in size, and that they had a four-in-five chance of winning the most seats.
About three months later — after the fallout from the story, including the expulsion from caucus of former cabinet ministers Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, had largely settled — support for the Liberals had cratered by seven to eight points. The Conservatives moved ahead with a six- to seven-point lead in the polls nationwide, enough to have them knocking on the door of a majority government of their own.
Similarly, approval ratings polls at the end of 2018 and in early 2019 put Trudeau's numbers somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s. By the end of the spring, those scores had fallen to around 30 per cent, with twice as many Canadians saying they disapproved of the prime minister as those who said they approved of him.
The comeback has been slow — but it appeared to have hit a tipping point over the last few weeks.
On Aug. 12, the Poll Tracker put the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at just a single point. Leads of about six points in Ontario and 11 points in Quebec helped propel the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in the seat projection for the first time since February.
Approval ratings had returned to the mid-30s, and a series of polls put Trudeau ahead of Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer as the person more Canadians want to see as prime minister.
The corner, it seemed, had finally been turned for the Liberals.
But will it be turned again?
But it's also possible the report will chip away at the benefit of the doubt some of Trudeau's supporters have been willing to give him, particularly those who have returned to the Liberals over the last few months.
As the spring turned into summer, voters' minds had turned away from the SNC-Lavalin affair. In March, the Angus Reid Institute found 15 per cent of Canadians listing "ethics and accountability" as one of their top two issues facing Canada. The polling firm's latest sounding put that share down to just eight per cent.
Of course, both scores put the issue well behind others like the economy, taxes, health care and the environment — issues that are more likely to be voters' focus when they finally cast their ballots two months from now.
In the coming weeks, the polls will reveal if the Liberals will once again have some catching up to do. Even if the blow is as bad as it was in the spring, they might have enough time to absorb it. The campaign has yet to begin and, yes, campaigns actually do matter.
But instead of launching that campaign with a little optimism and a bit of momentum after a tough six months, the Liberals might now find themselves back just where they started.
So much for that.
When the story initially broke in February, the impact on the Liberals' electoral fortunes was significant — an impact the party hadn't quite recovered from even before Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion published his damning findings yesterday.
Dion found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act by trying to influence then-justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould and get her to overrule a decision to not grant a deferred prosecution agreement to the large Quebec-based engineering firm.
It's an open question whether the Liberals will take another hit in the polls now that the SNC-Lavalin affair has made its way back into the news. It's also an open question whether they could survive another blow like that one.
In early February, before polls started registering the impact of the story first reported by the Globe and Mail, the Liberals enjoyed a four-point lead over the Conservatives. The CBC's Canada Poll Tracker estimated that the Liberals were still in a good position to win another majority government, even if reduced in size, and that they had a four-in-five chance of winning the most seats.
About three months later — after the fallout from the story, including the expulsion from caucus of former cabinet ministers Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, had largely settled — support for the Liberals had cratered by seven to eight points. The Conservatives moved ahead with a six- to seven-point lead in the polls nationwide, enough to have them knocking on the door of a majority government of their own.
Trudeau might have suffered more of a blow than the Liberal Party itself. Polls by Abacus Data found that 44 per cent of Canadians had a positive impression of the prime minister at the end of 2018. By April, that had plummeted by 12 points to just 32 per cent.
Similarly, approval ratings polls at the end of 2018 and in early 2019 put Trudeau's numbers somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s. By the end of the spring, those scores had fallen to around 30 per cent, with twice as many Canadians saying they disapproved of the prime minister as those who said they approved of him.
Liberal numbers have been trending up
The comeback has been slow — but it appeared to have hit a tipping point over the last few weeks.
On Aug. 12, the Poll Tracker put the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at just a single point. Leads of about six points in Ontario and 11 points in Quebec helped propel the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in the seat projection for the first time since February.
Approval ratings had returned to the mid-30s, and a series of polls put Trudeau ahead of Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer as the person more Canadians want to see as prime minister.
The corner, it seemed, had finally been turned for the Liberals.
But will it be turned again?
Trudeau walks in Niagara-on-the-Lake Wednesday. His Liberals fell seven points behind the Conservatives in national polls in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair but after six months had narrowed the gap to just one point, according to the CBC's Canada Poll Tracker. (Peter Power/The Canadian Press)
It's possible that Canadians' views of the SNC-Lavalin affair are already formed and that the conclusions of the ethics commissioner won't change anything — on the one hand, confirming the opinions of those who had long ago decided Trudeau had done wrong and, on the other, failing to shift the views of those who feel the prime minister acted appropriately in the face of potential job losses.But it's also possible the report will chip away at the benefit of the doubt some of Trudeau's supporters have been willing to give him, particularly those who have returned to the Liberals over the last few months.
SNC-Lavalin affair's resonance faded
As the spring turned into summer, voters' minds had turned away from the SNC-Lavalin affair. In March, the Angus Reid Institute found 15 per cent of Canadians listing "ethics and accountability" as one of their top two issues facing Canada. The polling firm's latest sounding put that share down to just eight per cent.
Of course, both scores put the issue well behind others like the economy, taxes, health care and the environment — issues that are more likely to be voters' focus when they finally cast their ballots two months from now.
It did take the Liberals some six months to regain about half of the support they lost in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair, but election campaigns have a way of shortening the time required to shift public opinion.
In the coming weeks, the polls will reveal if the Liberals will once again have some catching up to do. Even if the blow is as bad as it was in the spring, they might have enough time to absorb it. The campaign has yet to begin and, yes, campaigns actually do matter.
But instead of launching that campaign with a little optimism and a bit of momentum after a tough six months, the Liberals might now find themselves back just where they started.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/ethics-report-1.5247595
An incompetent Justice Minister was raised to godlike status by a sustained Con attack. She really did need to seek advice on the matter of a company losing the employment of thousands for the common act of bribing officials in Lybia.