Threats of Alberta separation go back decades, and have reached new heights since the April election of Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

The separatist Alberta Prosperity Project is gunning for 600,000 signatures on a petition that would force a provincial referendum on the issue, while the Republican Party of Alberta — led by longtime conservative operative Cameron Davies — is ramping up its separation push.

"What we're looking at is the broken and dysfunctional system that has been in place since Alberta joined Confederation," Davies, who recently resigned from membership in the governing United Conservative Party, told CBC News.

He says the system was designed to consolidate power in the East, and the West was "viewed as nothing more than a resource colony" for Ottawa.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has also focused much of her recent public messaging on sovereignty and opposition to Ottawa, making nods to the separatist movement but not outright supporting separation.

So, why do some Albertans feel they're being treated so unfairly?

Here's breakdown of a few key issues. 

Cameron Davies, leader of the Republican Party of Alberta, says it's time for Alberta to leave Canada. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Equalization payments

Equalization payments are a longstanding grievance for some Albertans.

The federal program sees a portion of federal tax dollars distributed to poorer, or "have-not," provinces so all can maintain reasonably similar levels of public services.

While Alberta was once a have-not, it's been a "have" province since the mid-1960s, meaning that it contributes to those payments, but receives none.  

Some argue this is unfair, and the money should stay in Alberta. 

Davies says the federal government only cares that the taxes keep coming from Alberta "so that they can redistribute it to Quebec and the Maritimes." 

People gather in support of Alberta becoming a 51st state during a rally at the legislature in Edmonton, on May 3. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

When Alberta's then-premier Jason Kenney held a referendum on equalization in 2021, about 62 per cent of voters said they would choose to remove the principle of equalization payments from the constitution. 

The current equalization formula was created by Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government, in which Kenney served as a cabinet minister. 

Andrew Leach, an environmental and energy economist at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, says because of Alberta's "enviable" fiscal position, there is "no system of equalization that would mathematically lead" to the province receiving payments. 

Quebec received the largest equalization payment in the 2025-26 fiscal year ($13.6 billion), followed by Manitoba ($4.7 billion).

Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal Unversity in Calgary, says some of the anger around equalization comes from a misunderstanding among many Albertans of how the system works. 

"They think that the treasurer of Alberta writes a cheque to Quebec for $12 billion every year," he said. 

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently lowered the threshold for referendums, seen by some as a move to allow a referendum on separation. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

Bratt feels the issue has been deliberately misrepresented to stoke anger, and says it's not clear whether Alberta would be better off without equalization payments. 

"If Alberta seceded... they would save all that tax revenue, but then they would have to pay for all the things that the federal government currently pays for, and that would become very complicated about whether they would benefit or not," he said. 

Underrepresentation in Ottawa

Davies and others argue Alberta is underrepresented in the House of Commons and the Senate.

Alberta gained three seats in the 2022 federal electoral redistribution and now has 37 of the 343 seats in the House, or about 10.8 per cent, while accounting for about 11.6 per cent of the country's population.

If fairness is being judged by percentages, that's slightly higher than Ontario's per-capita representation, based on the same 2021 Statistics Canada figures used by Elections Canada.

The numbers are slightly more skewed toward the smaller Atlantic provinces. For example, New Brunswick has 10 seats — just under three per cent — and about two per cent of the country's population. 

 

Poilievre says ‘we need to unite this country,’ but Albertans ‘have a right to be frustrated’

 

When asked if he would denounce the Alberta separatist movement, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre said Albertans have ‘legitimate grievances’ about industry but he is ‘against separation.’

In the Senate, however, Alberta is clearly underrepresented — with six of the 105 senators, or less than six per cent. B.C., Saskatchewan and Manitoba also have six senators each, while Nova Scotia and New Brunswick each have 10.

"Maybe it would be nice to have an equal Senate, but right now the Senate doesn't have a whole lot of power," Bratt said. 

Dennis Pilon, a political science professor at York University in Toronto, says the formulas that led to these numbers are part of a long process of constitutional and court revision.

He says one could argue that there should be a constitutional convention where such issues could be addressed.

However, he says if changes were to be made, other issues should also be considered, such as the overrepresentation of rural ridings.

"There are a lot of other problems that actually speak to a much higher level of unfairness, which I don't hear the Alberta separatists talking about," Pilon said. 

Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney held a referendum on equalization in 2021. (Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press)

Federal regulations

Davies has a list of complaints about federal regulations, from the long-gun registry to the recently turfed carbon tax — policies he says fit well with Toronto and Montreal audiences but are "tone deaf" to Albertans. 

"Albertans generally just want to be left alone," he said. 

Such complaints usually boil down to the oil and gas industry, and perceived damage done by Liberal environmental policies.

Alberta leaders across parties frequently put oil and gas at the centre of their campaigns, as the industry contributes billions to provincial coffers each year.

But Leach, at the U of A, says it's not so clear that Ottawa has been detrimental to the industry's ambitions. 

Yes, the federal government has various environmental rules, he says. But it also, for example, has the jurisdiction to force pipeline construction to the coast through B.C.

"The Alberta oil and gas industry, left to its own devices, would probably find pipelines extremely expensive to build without federal government legislation. Because it means that any landowner can hold that pipeline up for as much money as they want to try to extract." 

In recent years, fights over pipelines led to the federal government rejecting the Northern Gateway pipeline in 2016, Trans Canada pulling out of Energy East in 2017 and Keystone XL to the U.S. being killed in 2021.

But the Trudeau Liberals also pushed through the Trans Mountain pipeline, despite regulatory and legal hurdles, buying it in 2018.

Meanwhile, the industry has continued to grow, raking in record profits and hitting record highs of oil production in the last three years.

Leach finds it curious that Liberal governments in particular have been painted by some as being strictly bad for oil and gas, and says most liquid natural gas projects, and many oil sands projects, that had permits in hand during the Harper era never moved ahead. 

"There's sort of this mythology that the conservatives have created about themselves, or that they expect of themselves, that they were fighting tooth-and-nail to get all of these projects built," he said.

An Alberta separatist group released on Monday a referendum question on independence from Canada that it will petition to get in front of provincial voters — but only once it has garnered support from 600,000 Albertans.

That's more than triple the number of signatures the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP) would need under a new United Conservative Party government bill that makes it much easier to force a referendum on the ballot.

The group also said it would push Premier Danielle Smith to allow a separation referendum later in 2025, instead of next year as she's suggested. They said a critical mass of separatist UCP members can persuade the premier to fast-track the referendum.

At a news conference, APP lawyer Jeffrey Rath pulled a blue provincial flag off an easel to reveal the independence referendum question: "Do you agree that the province shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?"

He touted this ballot question as far clearer than the one Quebec put forth in its 1995 secession referendum.

"This is as serious as a heart attack," Rath said. "And this is what Albertans expect."

Rath and his fellow separatists depicted an independent Alberta with no regulations from Ottawa or eastern Canadian interests, lower provincial taxes plus no federal taxes. 

They suggested oil and gas development would double within five years, multiple new pipelines would extend into the United States, and residents of a breakaway Alberta republic would still keep their Canadian passports and Canada Pension Plan entitlements.

The group said it wouldn't launch a citizens' initiative petition until it had 600,000 registered supporters, instead of the 177,000 soon to be legally required. They said this would bring their movement closer to the much higher number of votes they'd need to win on a secession referendum.

According to an Angus Reid Institute poll released last week, 19 per cent of Albertans would definitely vote to leave Canada, while another 17 per cent say they lean in that direction. More than half of respondents said they would definitely vote to stay in Canada.

Smith declined to discuss APP's strategy when asked about it Monday at an unrelated news conference, insisting it's premature to say what will come out of a petition drive.

"Having people sign up on a website saying that they will ultimately sign a petition is one thing," Smith said. "Getting the physical signatures signed up is another. That's why we have to wait for the process to play out."

The premier reiterated that she supports Alberta staying in Canada.

"It's my job to see if we can get a new deal with Ottawa so that I can convince more Albertans to feel the same," the premier told reporters.

She has made several demands of Prime Minister Mark Carney to give Alberta a better deal in confederation — to drop many federal energy and climate policies, and overhaul the federal transfer system to give more money to her province within the next six months.

On Monday, she announced plans to unilaterally freeze Alberta's industrial carbon tax at this year's level of $100 per tonne, rather than raising it gradually to $170 per tonne by 2030 that Ottawa and the provincial government had long agreed to.

Rath said his separatist movement won't be swayed by "whatever little box of chocolates" Carney brings to the negotiation table.

Interest in Alberta independence appears to have swelled since Carney's Liberals were re-elected to a fourth straight term last month, while voters in the province overwhelmingly chose the Conservatives once again.

Smith has said she understands separatists' mindset after a decade of Liberal climate policies that she argues target Alberta's wealth-producing oil and sector. She's said if separatists force a referendum, she'll schedule it for 2026.

But the APP leaders expressed confidence they can reach 600,000 registered supporters on their website by the end of June — they're at 240,000 now, they say — and want to put their question to voters this October or November. They noted that the Angus Reid poll showed that 65 per cent of UCP supporters would definitely vote to secede, or lean that way.

"Perhaps when Danielle wakes up and realizes that her base is almost unanimous behind the idea of Alberta independence, she might have to get a different idea on the timing," Rath said at his group's update.

Row after row of Canadian flags fly high atop tall poles over manicured lawns in a southern Alberta town that's also home to the province's premier, her husband and their dog.

Kathleen Sokvitne has lived on the street in High River, Alta., about 60 kilometres south of Calgary, for 30 years.

She says those flags show that not all Albertans agree with renewed efforts to secede from the country.

"Suggestions that the number of people wanting to separate is growing worries me," said Sokvitne, standing on her driveway.

Sokvitne said statements by Premier Danielle Smith, as well as her government's introduction of a bill making it easier for citizens to trigger referendums, enable separatists. Smith has said those wanting to separate are frustrated with Ottawa and "are not fringe voices."

"She is manipulating the people of this province into believing that we should seriously look at separating," Sokvitne said. "It is just ludicrous. Not all of us think like that. I absolutely disagree."

After speaking to a number of residents across Alberta — from High River in the south to Edmonton in the north — opinions on separatism are just as diverse as the province itself.

Muhammad Iqbal, owner of We Fix Phones, says people should have more appreciation for Canada because its given opportunity to generations of immigrants. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Some Albertans are frustrated with Ottawa, and a small margin wants to secede. Others argue that separation would be reckless.

Just a few blocks away from Sokvitne's home, musician Richard Engler sips coffee with his friends outside a local diner, as he said he agreed with Smith.

The premier has said she doesn't support separating from Canada, but that Albertans have genuine grievances with the federal government.

"Deep down, though, we're Canadians," said Engler, 76.

Engler said the frustration stems from historical and current grievances some people, including his own family, have against Ottawa.

"Western Canadians have been penalized for living out here," he said. "We need our jobs…we need the infrastructure and we need the energy corridors to be able to do all that."

North of High River in downtown Okotoks, a bedroom community of Calgary, the owner of a cellphone repair shop says those grievances can be resolved through conversations.

"I love to live in Canada and I don't want to separate," said Muhammad Iqbal, owner of We Fix Phones.

Iqbal, 39, said he immigrated to Ontario from Pakistan in 2001 before moving to Calgary in 2008. He said Canada should be more appreciated by Canadians because it has allowed generations of immigrants like him to prosper.

"This whole separatism thing…I don't know why it's happening and on what grounds."

Cameron Davies, leader of the Republican Party of Alberta, says Alberta's relationship with the rest of Canada is toxic. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Further north in Didsbury, business owner Jim Penner said separating would be reckless.

"Grievances should be negotiated and worked through rather than going to the extreme of threatening to leave," he said from inside his business, Didsbury Computers.

"There's absolutely no benefit that I could see from [separating] financially or politically."

Penner, 60, said his family has lived in Didsbury since his grandfather moved there.

His father, who was a farmer and a vocal separatist, didn't agree with the way the government controlled him and his livelihood, so Penner said he understands where frustrations might be coming from.

"Alberta and the West have been ostracized in many ways. I can understand. I'm not happy with the way the federal government has done things," he said. "But let's work on it as reasonable adults and not throw a temper tantrum."

But in an interview at a Tim Hortons in Gasoline Alley, a popular transportation corridor north of Didsbury, Republican Party of Alberta leader Cameron Davies said separatists aren't throwing one.

His party is calling for a referendum on whether Alberta should separate. Davies, 35, said separation would give Alberta the chance to renew its relationship with Canada and the rest of the world on its own terms.

"It's no different than being in an abusive, toxic relationship," he said. "We have to leave that relationship, and we can re-establish relationships or not with boundaries."

Davies said his party's membership has doubled to 20,000 members since the federal election that saw Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government re-elected.

He said most members are between 25 and 45 years old and feel that previous Liberal governments have made life difficult.

He said they feel like the system is working against them.

"Young people are increasingly finding it more and more challenging to buy their first home, to afford day-to-day living," he said. "Hockey and nostalgia don't pay the bills and it's not going to keep Canada together."

  Jim Penner, owner of a computer repair shop, thinks separating from Canada would be reckless. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Jesse Allen, 22, a pastor in Lloydminster, a town straddling the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary and incorporated by both provinces, said while sitting a few tables away from Davies at the cafe that he agreed.

"Albertans have no say, no voice at the table and that needs to change," he said.

He said, however, he would only vote "Yes" in a referendum to separate if the rest of Western Canada, including B.C. and Saskatchewan, also joined Alberta.

In Red Deer, Alta., Anita Ewan, 34, a professor at Capilano University and mother of seven children, questioned why Alberta's government was engaging with the separatist cause in the first place.

Ewan, 34, said she also works with marginalized people and seniors. She wonders what would happen to them if Alberta separated from Canada.

"Separation would reinforce that gap that already exists," she said. "Marginalized people will be further marginalized."

In a hamlet east of Edmonton, Sherwood Park resident Karen McClain said she wants Albertans to work with Ottawa instead of threatening to leave.

"The squeaky wheel gets the grease," she said.

"The more noise you make, the more that message gets out and it sounds like everybody wants [separatism], when it's a small number of people."

When Premier Danielle Smith speaks, she's still placing the Canadian flags behind her in among the Alberta provincial flags.

As much as critics insist she's either a separatist herself or is opening the door wide to the Alberta secessionist movement by easing the rules to have a referendum next year, the premier herself maintains that she wants Alberta to stay within the country.

"Acknowledging something exists is not the same as fanning it," Smith told the Alberta podcast Real Talk with Ryan Jespersen on Thursday. "My job is to make sure it doesn't get higher. My job is to make sure it gets lower."

But if the premier is determined to sway pro-separatists and keep the Ottawa-wary in the Canadian camp, did she help that cause with this week's array of demands for Prime Minister Mark Carney to fulfil in the next six months? 

She's calling for easy access to extend new oil and gas pipelines to all three ocean coasts, a surge in new financial transfers and the erasure of many (if not most) of the Liberal government's climate policies

"There's simply no way the federal government will be able to [do that] — it doesn't have the power to do some of the things she's asking for," said Feo Snagovsky, a University of Alberta political scientist who researches western alienation.

"In that sense, almost from the outset, the federal government is doomed to fail."

Snagovsky wondered if by setting "maximalist demands," Smith might be able to declare victory by reaching middle points with Ottawa in negotiations toward what she's calling the "Alberta accord."

However, before the election she wasn't discussing compromise. After her first meeting with Carney in March, she set out similar demands and warned of an "unprecedented national unity crisis" if her demands weren't met.

One may wonder if we're already in or on the verge of national unity crisis mode, given the strong likelihood of an Alberta referendum to break up Canada that Smith said she'd schedule in 2026 if enough petitioners request it — a threshold her government has newly lowered.

     A social media post from the separatist group that's committed to gathering the necessary 177,000 signatures on a petition to force Alberta to hold a secession vote. The premier has said she'd hold it in 2026. (Instagram/albertaprosperityproject)

David Cameron may want a word

The parallels to 2016's Brexit referendum seem clear to Snagovsky: U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron scheduled a vote on leaving the European Union that he publicly opposed and didn't believe would succeed. Until it did, and he resigned in disgrace.

Smith cannot assume the opposition against an Alberta exit holds, Snagovsky said.

"It's equally likely that lowering this threshold for the number of minimum votes [to get a referendum] might increase this kind of sentiment, because campaigns have a mobilizing effect," he said.

While Smith has firmly positioned herself and her party as federalist, it remains unclear from her statements this week whether she'd actively campaign on the "no" side of a referendum.

Findings in a new Angus Reid poll suggest it could be in her political interests to leave the campaigning to others.

It showed that 36 per cent of Albertans would definitely vote or lean toward voting to leave Canada in a secession referendum, but that number leaps to 65 per cent among supporters of her United Conservatives.

"As separation rises in Alberta, the idea is bound to be even more popular within the UCP membership," said Peter McCaffrey, who has been active with the UCP since its founding in 2017, and now leads a libertarian think tank.

He believes the party will have a "healthy debate" on sovereignty within its ranks. 

"The lesson Alberta conservatives learned from the Progressive Conservative/Wildrose split was that if you try to shut down debates on controversial ideas, the debates don't go away, they just migrate into a new party," McCaffrey said. (The Republican Party of Alberta has been vocal in the federal election's aftermath and is wooing disaffected UCPers, but it's unclear how much momentum they have.)

It's entirely possible some UCP activists try to get the party to formally adopt separatist policies or principles — after all, in recent years Smith's party grassroots have pushed her to adopt new rules for transgender youth, an expanded Human Rights Act and a ban on vote-counting machines, and she's acted on them.

Smith's appointment of Alberta Speaker Nathan Cooper as Washington envoy opens up a provincial byelection in a rural seat that an avowed separatist could win. It happened once before. ( Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

Separatism's rise and an upcoming byelection in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills could also pose problems within Smith's political base.

Insiders believe party members could nominate a separatist UCP candidate in that riding — or the premier could head off that threat and appoint a candidate, but that could stir dissent among her grassroots and give energy to a Republican Party candidate in that area.

And there's a historical echo. In a 1982 byelection, the Olds-Didsbury riding rejected the governing Tories and voted in Gordon Kesler, with the Western Canada Concept, an openly separatist party.

Unlike the retired politician Kenney named to his Fair Deal Panel, Smith named herself to head this road-tripping summer panel. That could heighten the publicity and importance around it.

Smith went on a listening road show last year to UCP town halls, where she fielded sometimes unorthodox questions about vaccine safety and chemtrails.

But this year's panel would be public, and not a party-only affair, leading to the possibility that Albertans both inside her camp and opposed to her show up and speak out on other provincial grievances.

Meanwhile, in Alberta

After all, while the separation issue consumes much oxygen — as nationally existential questions are wont to do — there's much else going on worth scrutinizing in this province.

Lower oil prices will threaten the economy and widen Alberta's budget deficit.

RCMP and auditor investigations into Alberta Health Services procurement and the firing of its CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos continue to hang over this government's record — and its massive experiment in health system restructuring is unfolding in the meantime.

   As the rise of separatism draws national headlines, so much else is swirling around Alberta politics, from the oil price plunge to investigations into Alberta Health Services and the termination of Athana Mentzelopoulos, right, its former CEO. (Maxime Lamache/CBC)

A measles outbreak has been raging since February, and only this week did the government announce a big vaccination awareness campaign.

There's a growing risk of potential strikes by teachers provincewide and unionized provincial employees.

And the U.S. tariff threats and harm by those already imposed haven't vanished, though that's what premiers other than Smith are more likely to talk about.

Alberta's leader told Postmedia this week that many disaffected Albertans see the threat coming from the east, like other Canadians perceive the threat from the south.

"As scared as these people are of what Donald Trump is going to do to their economy, that's how scared Albertans are of what the Liberals are going to do to the Alberta economy," Smith said.

And just as heightened anti-American feelings have risen broadly — including in Alberta— the separatist movement is aiming to transform the long-brewing anti-Ottawa sentiment into an anti-Canada sentiment.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she's willing to risk a separation referendum in part to avert the emergence of a political rival.

Smith says she doesn't support separating her province from Canada, but says Albertans have genuine grievances with the federal government, and she wants concessions from Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Speaking Wednesday to CTV News Channel, Smith was asked if it wasn't easier to quell separatism by taking it off the table.

Smith responded, "If there isn't an outlet, it creates a new party."

Smith cited the high popularity of the sovereigntist Parti Québécois in Quebec, saying she doesn't want to see that happen in her home province.

"We've got 30 to 40 per cent of Albertans polled saying that they are dissatisfied with the country to the point where they would consider [separation]," she said. "My job is to try to bring those numbers down."

Her United Conservative Party is the amalgamation of two right-wing parties that joined in 2017 to win power from then-New Democrat premier Rachel Notley in 2019.

Last week, after Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney's election win, Smith's government introduced a bill that would sharply lower the bar for citizens seeking to trigger provincewide referendums.

That sparked renewed grassroots efforts in Alberta to gather support for seceding from the country.

Smith has said she wants to enable direct democracy on a wide range of Albertans' concerns and, should there be enough signatures, has promised to initiate a separation referendum next year.

NDP health critic Sarah Hoffman said Thursday unleashing talk of separatism is not good for the country, for Alberta, or for investment.

Of Smith's Wednesday comments, Hoffman said, "That is selfish and it is dangerous."

First Nations Chiefs from across Alberta have also condemned Smith's legislation as well as any suggestion of Alberta separation, warning their treaties with the Crown predate the province and Alberta doesn't have the authority to challenge those agreements.

Smith has said her aim is to compel the Liberals to bring an end to federal policies that have long irritated her province, including by demanding guaranteed oil and gas pipeline access to tidewater.

Her approach includes sending a negotiating team to Ottawa, while at the same time hosting town halls to gather feedback from Albertans on how to get a better deal.

After meeting with Carney and her provincial counterparts, Smith said in a statement Wednesday there's an emerging consensus among premiers that federal regulations need to be cleared away to allow for "nation-building projects" and investment.

"I expect to see meaningful action from Prime Minister Mark Carney and the federal government to remove the restrictive policies and barriers that have landlocked our resources and hampered our economy for the past decade," she said.

It's becoming a Canadian tradition: the Liberals win a federal election, and calls for western secession emerge from the sea of blue prairie voters.

Feelings of western alienation are nothing new, but polls suggest the recent desire for separation has persisted in Alberta and Saskatchewan since Justin Trudeau's second election win in 2019.

This week, the day after Mark Carney was elected prime minister, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith introduced legislation that made it easier to trigger a referendum, lowering the number of required signatures by hundreds of thousands. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a group that was planning a sovereignty referendum petition, says it now has enough people registered online to meet the new threshold. 

First Nations chiefs accused Smith of "attempting to manufacture a national unity crisis" with the move.

At the core of the pro-secession argument is the idea that the West is a key economic engine for the rest of the country and is contributing more to the rest of Canada than it receives in return. Smith and other Alberta leaders also say Liberals' climate goals are bad for business in the oilpatch. 

Separatists claim the western provinces would be better off on their own.

One proposed scenario is Alberta leaving to become an independent country. Another scenario adds Saskatchewan — both provinces voted overwhelmingly Conservative in Monday's election — and still another includes rural northern B.C. 

Some have suggested joining the U.S. as the 51st state.

First Nations chiefs have accused Alberta Premier Danielle Smith of 'attempting to manufacture a national unity crisis by enabling a referendum on separatism.' (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

The process of leaving Canada would be long, complicated and expensive and would require consent from the federal government as well as extensive negotiations with First Nations, several of which on Thursday said emphatically that they would fight back against any such proposal.

In short, it's a highly implausible scenario. 

But in a world where the West managed to peacefully negotiate its way to independence, could its economy thrive once freed from obligations to the rest of Canada?

People, companies would likely flee: economist

Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economics professor, says as far as Alberta goes, it would be naive to look at the province's finances and assume things would stay the same if it separated.

In reality, he says, serious talk of separation would see people — and more significantly, companies and capital — leave the province in big numbers.

"The tax base would shrink, companies would leave Alberta, as we've seen with Quebec [following threats of separation]. That would really change the fiscal landscape," Tombe said. 

"Any time there's risk of separatism increasing, a lot of those corporations might shift their headquarters elsewhere, so we may see the corporate tax base leave Alberta to Toronto or Vancouver, just as we saw happen to Montreal."

In the early 1960s, he says, the federal government raised more money in revenue from Quebec than it spent in the province, as is the case with Alberta today. But when profitable companies, financial institutions and others left the province amid separation talk, that changed. 

Combined with the massive administrative cost of taking over federally run programs, he says this exodus would necessitate raising taxes, thus negating the "tax advantage" some separatists tout as one of Alberta's biggest selling points.

He cites Brexit — the United Kingdom's 2020 exit from the European Union — as a somewhat comparable situation, which saw the U.K. incur heavy financial costs, including having to renegotiate its trade agreements. 

Alberta's situation would be more challenging because it's landlocked, and those countries tend to have lower productivity, Tombe said, and higher trade costs because they lack access to trading ports.

"[The EU] made it very difficult for the U.K., potentially to set an example for others who might think about leaving the union," he said. "And one might expect that kind of dynamic would be the same if Alberta were to leave Canada."

Ottawa could levy additional fees on the shipment of oil across the country, for example. 

"Canada would be stupid not to do that," he said. "It could charge quite a bit, and that would mean the oil is less valuable to Alberta."

Tombe says a separated West could also be blocked from joining trade agreements of which Canada is currently part. 

He says it's hard to say what the economic or financial situation might ultimately look like in such a "wildly speculative" scenario, but says it's clear that market access and pipeline construction would become much more difficult. 

Reliance on oil and gas could hinder economy

Saeed Moshiri, economics professor at the University of Saskatchewan, says residents of an independent West could likely expect a lower standard of living than they have now. 

Moshiri says the biggest problems for Alberta and Saskatchewan would be their economic reliance on the oil and gas and mining sectors — which are prone to fluctuation — and the fact that they haven't used that money to build up significant reserve funds like, say, Norway. 

"When times are good, the rest of the country benefited from Alberta and Saskatchewan. But on the other hand, when times have been bad, Alberta and Saskatchewan benefited from them," he said.

"So the net effect on Canada has been positive, and it's been a win-win situation for both."

He says the new western nation would also have to develop its own currency and monetary policy, a "remarkable" cost for the relatively small size of its economy.

While some concerns could potentially be eased if the independent nation convinced northern B.C. to join, or if it became part of the U.S., Moshiri says that doesn't solve the fundamental problem of reliance on oil and gas. 

"Diversification, of course, is possible, but it's going to take a long time. It's going to require a lot of capital, and investment in human capital."

 

Carney calls Manning's comments about Western secession 'unhelpful'

 

Asked at a campaign stop in Montreal about comments by ex-Reform leader Preston Manning that a Liberal election win will fuel Western secession, Liberal Leader Mark Carney said if elected prime minister he will govern for all of Canada.

'What is the upside of separation?'

Ross Hickey, associate economics professor at the University of British Columbia's Okanagan campus in Kelowna, points out the provinces would also have to buy all the federal infrastructure within their borders if they were to separate, assuming that could be agreed upon.

Hickey says the new nation would lose out on the risk-sharing that comes with being part of a large and diverse federation, which also means higher interest rates.

Separation would certainly hurt the rest of Canada, as well, he said. But at the same time, he says separatists are  overestimating the western provinces' economic weight. 

"Alberta and Saskatchewan, even if they took B.C. with them, it's still not Quebec or Ontario," he said. 

While Hickey says it's possible an independent West could develop more efficient ways of running things over time, there would still be a "giant startup cost hurdle" to develop systems currently run by the feds, like tracking people's income for unemployment insurance.

He says the rest of Canada  would still "undoubtedly" have to be the new country's main trading partners.

While he agrees with Moshiri that joining the U.S. could solve some market access problems, he says the separated West would be in a "very poor bargaining situation" and might only end up being accepted as a territory, "like another Puerto Rico." 

And with U.S. tariffs and an ongoing trade war with Canada, Hickey says it's ironic for western provinces to be proposing more barriers on the free flow of goods, services, people and capital within this country. 

"You've got to ask, what is the upside of separation? Aside from the upside that a baby gets when it cries really loud in its crib: getting the attention of its parents," he said. 

Hickey says Quebec separation is more realistic, because it has access to the St. Lawrence River and has its own income tax system, as well as special agreements on immigration with Ottawa.

Still, he says, even Quebec does not have a strong economic case for leaving. It's "hard to see what the added value would be" for any province trying to separate, he said.

"There's always been this independent streak in Alberta, which is not a bad thing," Hickey said. 

"But let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater."

Many First Nations in Alberta are denouncing Bill 54, the Election Statutes Amendment Act tabled in the provincial legislature Tuesday, saying it disregards treaty rights.

If passed, it will change how referendums can be introduced in the province by lowering the signature threshold required.

In a letter, Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation Chief Sheldon Sunshine and Mikisew Cree First Nation Chief Billy-Joe Tuccaro accused Premier Danielle Smith of "attempting to manufacture a national unity crisis by enabling a referendum on separatism."

"Alberta did not exist when our ancestors agreed to share the land with the Crown. The province has no authority to supersede or interfere with our treaties, even indirectly by passing the buck to a 'citizen' referendum," the letter continued.

Tuccaro told CBC News the bill continues the work the province started when they introduced the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act in 2022. 

"If treaty rights were broken … it would allow Alberta to do anything they would see fit in regards to our traditional territories," he said. 

"If the treaties are broken then that leaves us as First Nations with absolutely nothing in regards to holding the British Crown responsible for their fiduciary responsibility, and that is to uphold the treaty that we signed in 1899." 

He described the relationship between the province and First Nations as "very tense" and said if the bill is passed, "There will be a rise up from the treaty people."

In a news release, the Blackfoot Confederacy said the proposed legislation "threatens the constitutional and legal order by disregarding the Nation-to-Crown agreements that define our relationship to the state."

It reminded the province their treaty "was not a land surrender," but rather "a framework for peaceful coexistence and shared use of territory." 

"We will aggressively protect our historic treaty rights and our inherent rights," said Piikani Nation Chief Troy Knowlton in a statement. 

"We will require that the Crown's obligations to First Nations be honoured and fulfilled." 

'Enabling direct democracy'

At a news conference on Thursday, Smith said she respects "all of the treaty rights that are enshrined in the Constitution."

She described referendums as "enabling direct democracy," and she encouraged all Albertans — including Indigenous people — to embrace it. 

"The purpose of a referendum is to let every single Albertan have a say on matters of important public policy," said Smith. 

When pushed on her personal views on Alberta separatism, the premier said she believes in "Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada."

She accused the federal government of meddling in provincial issues. 

"When the federal government goes out of their way to interfere with our exclusive jurisdiction, we are going to meet them with every step that we can in order to preserve our ability to manage our own affairs," she said. 

Rethinking sovereignty 

One expert says some Albertans are feeling disenchanted by the political process following the federal election, with some wanting the province to break from Canada. 

"It's impossible for Alberta to think it can claim the land without involving Indigenous peoples," said Matthew Wildcat, director of Indigenous governance at the University of Alberta, and a member of Ermineskin Cree Nation. 

"We can't think about our Canadian sovereignty being broken apart unless treaties [and] Indigenous peoples are part of that reordering of sovereignty."

Matthew Wildcat says Indigenous people must be included in talks on Alberta separatism. (John Ulan/Ulan Photography)

Smith said at the news conference she doesn't want to judge the types of petitions Albertans want to put forth and that interest in separatism might not be widespread, referring to a recent Angus Reid survey that suggested one in four Albertans would vote to separate from Canada. 

"It seems to me that the majority of people are not in favour of that, and so I guess we'll see whether or not they're able to put together a petition, gather enough signatures and put it to the people," she said.

The premier mentioned examples where Albertans had a say in important issues, including the 1997 referendum on allowing VLTs in the province.

Elections Alberta has fined the conservative activist group Take Back Alberta and founder David Parker more $120,000 for political financing violations.

The fines, disclosed on the election agency's website Tuesday, are for more than a dozen violations of Alberta's election finance law, including circumventing spending limits, accepting contributions from outside Alberta and Canada, and knowingly making false statements in a financial report to the chief electoral officer.

The agency does not release the reasons for its penalties, or comment on them.

But Parker told CBC News that investigators disagreed with his insistence that his group's meetings and his speeches about the United Conservative Party (UCP) and NDP throughout Alberta didn't amount to political advertising.

"If I can't express my dislike for a political figure at my own meetings from my own group, that is word-of-mouth advertised, then we don't live in a democracy anymore," Parker said Tuesday in an interview.

The group and its founder have 30 days to pay the fines, or they have the option of appealing in court. Parker said he'll fight the penalties but hasn't yet decided how he'll do that.

TBA has emerged in recent years as a potent activist movement within the UCP. 

Parker, a former federal and provincial party organizer, helped encourage disaffected Albertans to push then-premier Jason Kenney out of the UCP leadership in 2022. He then rallied party members to elect like-minded activists to the UCP board of directors so TBA could have "control" over the governing party.

Parker has been politically and personally close with Premier Danielle Smith, who was a guest at his 2023 wedding. But she had cut ties after some of his inflammatory social media remarks, and he campaigned against her UCP leadership review last fall, where she won resounding support. 

TBA is registered as a political and election third-party advertiser, a designation that allows it to promote and oppose provincial parties and candidates, but also requires it to report its donations and donor names for all such activities. 

The group and Parker, its chief financial officer, had not submitted financial reports in 2023 or 2024, according to the Elections Alberta financial portal, despite Parker's many speaking events and advocacy efforts within the UCP.

 "My claim is we did no political advertising. Their claim is the town halls were political advertising," Parker said Tuesday.

"Nobody who gave money to Take Back Alberta was donating to political advertising. They were under the assumption they were donating to operations."

Elections Alberta found that Parker knowingly contributed over the $30,000 annual limit to his own third-party advertiser.

His organization landed in court last year, as Parker had resisted disclosing documents Elections Alberta had demanded as part of an investigation into financial irregularities. 

The Edmonton Journal reported that he was fined $5,000 plus legal costs in August after failing to meet a deadline to disclose donor names to the agency.

In a letter to TBA supporters last summer, Parker said the group had $680,000 in revenues in 2023 and $688,225 in 2022 — although that year the group reported only $22,309 in contributions. 

In July, Parker called the Elections Alberta investigation a "witch hunt by unelected bureaucrats" in a social media post.

Parker was personally fined $7,500, while the group Take Back Alberta was fined $112,500. Jonathan Heidebrecht, the group's former chief financial officer, was fined $500 for a false statement in a quarterly financial report.

Residents in the central Alberta oil and gas town of Drayton Valley hope to send Ottawa a distress signal over the oil price crisis and pending layoffs at a rally Tuesday afternoon.

Rally organizers say they want to draw Ottawa's attention to the impact of plunging oil prices, which have wreaked havoc on the community of just over 7,000 people, where businesses are fighting to stay afloat as residents struggle to hold on to homes and feed families.

Last week, 50 local business owners penned a letter inviting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to sit down with them for an informal chat to look for solutions.

Lifelong Drayton Valley resident and rally organizer Tim Cameron said a key message the town hopes to send the federal government is that new pipelines urgently need to get built to get Alberta oil to international markets. The level of concern in town can't be overstated, he said.

"The business community as a whole is in panic," said Cameron. "I'm reticent about floating those big verbs and those big adjectives because it sounds like another typical media sound bite — 'Oh it's devastation, it's collapse of a community'— but it really is."

'Dozens of guys like me'

Cameron once worked as a project manager on the civil construction and environmental side of the energy industry where he managed up to 50 workers four years ago. Now he's scrambling to find work.

"And there's dozens of guys like me in Drayton Valley so that starts to put it in perspective," said Cameron.

On Sunday Premier Rachel Notley announced an 8.7 per cent oil production cut, in an effort to address a glut and boost the sagging price of Western Canadian Select oil, which sells at a huge discount compared to comparable U.S. oil.

She urged Ottawa to "toss the half-hearted statements away" and "step up and help us bring an end to this crisis" by getting Alberta crude to the west coast with additional pipeline capacity.

Planning for Tuesday's rally evolved out of a speaking event already planned in the evening involving Vivian Krause, a Vancouver-based researcher who has extensively investigated foreign financial backing in Canada's environmental movement. That dinner and speech was organized by the council of Brazeau County, which surrounds Drayton Valley. 

• Campaign against Alberta oilsands not helping environment, argues researcher

"We wanted to show our business community that there's outside forces out there that are working against Brazeau County. They're working against this province and they're working against this country," said county reeve Bart Guyon.

'We're not partisan'

Dealerships, banks, retail outlets and oil companies plan to close early for the 4:30 p.m. rally. 

"We're not partisan," Cameron stressed. "There have been a variety of parties that have put us in this situation. And it's up to everybody now to get involved."