The Liberals could be crushed in the next election. Why would anyone want to lead them?
Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark all possible candidates
Back in 2012, when Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty announced he would resign, Kathleen Wynne says many people were asking the same questions: Who would run for leadership of the provincial Liberal party and — more importantly, given its grim prospects at the time — why would anyone want to?
"I made a decision to run for the leadership in that context, fully expecting that I wouldn't win, but also that we were on a path to lose [the next election]," Wynne — who succeeded McGuinty as both leader and premier — told CBC News.
So she has a little insight into why anyone would want to lead the federal Liberals following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation, even though polls suggest the party could suffer a massive defeat in the next election.
(Although Wynne was elected in 2014, she also knows what it's like to be politically decimated, having been crushed in the 2018 vote, and being left as one of only seven Liberals elected to the legislature.)
"If you expect to lose, then you are prepared to rebuild. You're prepared to ferret out what's wrong and try to try to solve those problems because you believe in the project that you believe in the people," Wynne said.
"There has to be a fire in your belly to take that on."
Former
Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne speaks as she is honoured at the
provincial Liberal Party leadership convention in Mississauga, Ont., on
March 6, 2020. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
That fire, in the case of the next Liberal leader, may need to last for a long time — and in the political wilderness. CBC's Poll Tracker shows the Conservatives would secure a landslide majority government if an election were held today, with the Liberals in danger of falling into third, behind the Bloc Québécois, or perhaps even fourth, behind the NDP in the seat count.
Other polls suggest the situation is so dire, the Liberals could end up losing official party status, unable to secure the 12 seats needed in the House of Commons.
The next Liberal leader might see the job as playing a long game, says Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in London, Ont.
"You think about it as 'I'm going to come in now and I'm going to start staking my claim and I'm going to propose rebuilding … I'm not expecting to win this [election], but I'm hoping to win the next one.'''
"It depends on how committed are they to public service and what are their long-term goals."
There does not appear to be a shortage of potential candidates, including former finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, economic adviser Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and government House Leader Karina Gould.
Here are some potential candidates who could replace Trudeau | Power & PoliticsLori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, says despite the prospect of losing big in the next election, many have been waiting for Trudeau to step aside.
"The party's fortunes are much worse than they would have been had he left two years ago. But that doesn't mean they don't want to try," she said.
"Because the other thing is, if you don't do it, then what? You're going to wait six years for your turn?"
Turnbull says she can see why someone like Gould — who, at 37, has lots of "time and runway"— might take on the leadership, with the understanding it may be "freaking awful" but that she'd be willing to do the work to rebuild.
"I could see something like that … because that's still a worthwhile project. It's still the Liberal Party."
See Trudeau's full speech announcing he's stepping down as Liberal leaderBut she says the decision to run really depends on where a potential candidate is in their life, which is why she questions why someone like Carney would be interested.
The former governor of both the Bank of Canada and, more recently, the Bank of England is "a big mover and shaker globally. Really, you're going to be the leader of a third-place party? Why would you do that?"
She says similar questions could be asked of Freeland, who has held high-profile roles in the government.
And yet, Turbull says people who aspire to political leadership often have a very strong sense of personal efficacy.
"They believe they can turn the tide and beat the odds. So there might be some people who don't accept the predictions that many have made for the Liberal Party."
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Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc not seeking Liberal Party leadership
Liberal MPs gather for first time since Trudeau announced his resignation
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, whose name has been circulating as a potential Liberal leadership contender, says he will not be seeking the party's top job.
In a statement, the New Brunswick MP said he is touched by support he received but said Canada is at "a critical juncture in its relationship" with the U.S., and said he believes he can better serve the country by working to stop president-elect Donald Trump from imposing steep tariffs on Canadian goods.
"The threat these tariffs pose to our nation's economic well-being and to the livelihood of a countless number of Canadian families cannot be understated — and as such, it requires nothing less than my full attention," the minister said.
LeBlanc touched by support to run for Liberal leadership, but will not runTrump has ratcheted up his rhetoric, threatening Tuesday to use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
LeBlanc's decision comes as Liberal MPs gather in Ottawa with the daunting task of choosing a new leader — quickly.
After a cascade of calls to resign, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday he'll step down as soon as his party chooses a successor.
The Governor General has also agreed to his request to prorogue Parliament until March 24. That gives the Liberals just over two months to mount a leadership campaign and ready for an all-but-certain spring election.
Whoever takes over the Liberal leadership would become Canada's next prime minister, although it could be a very short tenure.
Trudeau's Liberals have been trailing the Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives by more than 20 points in the polls for more than a year. The opposition parties have been clear they plan to vote non-confidence in the government at their first opportunity, triggering an election.
The national caucus meeting, which was on the calendar before Trudeau's announcement earlier this week, is set to take place on Parliament Hill and last about six hours.
Some names for leadership consideration are already coming out of the woodwork.
Trudeau says he’ll step down. What happens next? Cabinet colleagues Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson have told CBC they're considering a bid. On Tuesday Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she's reflecting on a leadership run.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has also said he is mulling a campaign.
Sources said former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, whose abrupt resignation last month likely hastened Trudeau's decision, has been making calls.
Some Liberals already naming preferred candidates
While no one has officially launched a campaign, some MPs are already lining up behind candidates at least informally.
Toronto—Danforth MP Julie Dabrusin said she thinks Freeland "would be an amazing candidate."
"I think that she's shown that she has experience in negotiating with the United States in tough times; she's been really good with working with our provinces," she said before the Ontario caucus meeting Tuesday night.
Joly says she is considering run for Liberal leadershipOttawa-area MP Anita Vandenbeld said she'd be interested in an outside candidate like Christy Clark. The former premier of British Columbia has expressed an interest in wanting "to be part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal Party."
"I think we need someone who can really bring new people in," she said.
How and when the party will choose that person isn't yet clear. Neither the rules governing the leadership process nor a date have been announced.
Liberal party executives say they are also gathering this week to figure out a way forward.
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