Double trouble in Fredericton as 2 party leaders face side-by-side races
Liberal and Green leaders are contesting neighbouring ridings, both with strong PC voting histories
New Brunswick's new election map has two major party leaders facing uncertainty in their own races to return to the legislature as MLAs.
An imaginary line that runs down Regent Street is the boundary between two Fredericton ridings where Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Leader David Coon are on the ballot.
Both leaders have faced the dilemma of weighing how much time to spend campaigning at home when the demands of province-wide campaigns require them to be on the road.
"It's always a bit of debate internally," said federal Green Leader Elizabeth May, who campaigned with Coon at St. Thomas University this week.
Federal
Green Leader Elizabeth May campaigned with provincial Green Leader
David Coon at St. Thomas University in Fredericton this week. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
May said during federal elections she tries to spend at least half the campaign in her British Columbia riding.
"It's always a strategic call, a judgment call. You can get it wrong," she said.
Coon and Holt have both devoted some time to local campaigning, but not as much as non-leaders can.
At Holt's riding headquarters, a squad of volunteers, mostly women, have been working phones and mapping their door-knocking routes while she's been touring the province.
"She trusts us to be her representatives," said Jackie Durnford, Holt's campaign manager in Fredericton South-Silverwood.
The spectacle of two party leaders contesting local races side-by-side was created by the redrawn electoral map.
Provincial law requires it be updated every 10 years to ensure each of the 49 ridings are roughly equal in population.
At
Holt’s riding headquarters, volunteers like Susan Fortune have been
working phones and mapping their door-knocking routes while she’s been
touring the province. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
In Fredericton, the independent commission overseeing the process split the former Fredericton South riding that Coon had represented since 2014. He won big majorities there in 2018 and 2020.
Now that strong Green voting base is split in two — and could be diluted in the two new ridings on the new map.
Coon is running in Fredericton-Lincoln, which, based on results from 2020 polling stations, would have gone PC in that election.
On the other hand, the Green leader wasn't on the ballot in many of those polling stations, and his high profile could help him.
"I've known about at least one of the candidates for some time, and we're now in that riding, so I made up my mind pretty quickly based on the individual I wanted to vote for," said voter Brent Wilson, after a stop at a grocery store on the Lincoln Road.
Wilson wouldn't say who he was voting for but it was clear from his description that he was referring to Coon.
"It was an easy choice for me," he said.
Brent Wilson says it was an easy choice deciding who to vote for. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
Anissa Lavigne, a former teacher who now homeschools her children, wouldn't disclose who she was voting for either, but her comments sound sympathetic to the PC party's position on education and parental rights.
"I have a lot of concerns about the education system, I would say," she said. "But also just in general, values, and where people stand on moral issues."
Coon's PC opponent Daniel Chippin didn't respond to an interview request.
But PC candidate Nicolle Carlin, who is running against Holt in Fredericton South-Silverwood, said taking on a party leader is an "extra element" for a candidate.
"They have a higher profile and they're in the news a lot more," she said.
Carlin says as a former television journalist and spokesperson for Premier Blaine Higgs for six years, she hasn't been a complete unknown.
"I didn't start from scratch."
Anissa
Lavigne, a former teacher who now homeschools her children, wouldn’t
disclose who she was voting for, but her comments sounded sympathetic to
the PC party’s position on education and parental rights. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
Fredericton South-Silverwood has some of the same confounding calculations as Fredericton-Lincoln.
The PC vote there would also have been enough to win it in 2020 had the current boundaries existed
The Greens would have been a close second and the Liberals a distant third in 2020.
But that was with Coon — and without Holt — on the ballot in the parts of the riding that were in Fredericton South.
"There was a lot of loyalty to David Coon, and David Coon is not in this riding this time," Durnford said.
There are "ins and outs" to the local candidate also being a party leader, she added.
PC
candidate Nicolle Carlin, who is running against Holt in Fredericton
South-Silverwood, says taking on a party leader is an 'extra element'
for a candidate. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
"Yes, Holt is elsewhere for a lot of the campaign, but "our local candidate has a lot of media presence," Durnford said.
"It's not like we're trying to introduce her name and people go, 'Susan Holt, I haven't heard that name before.'"
The side-by-side contests, neither a sure thing for the two leaders, make Fredericton a key battleground on Monday that could reshape the political landscape.
The future of the Greens would be very different without their highly popular leader.
If the Liberals were to win the election but Holt were to lose her seat, she'd still be sworn in as premier, but it would be a blow.
She'd probably look for a Liberal MLA to step aside soon for a byelection so she could get into the legislature.
Jackie
Durnford, Susan Holt’s campaign manager in Fredericton
South-Silverwood, says Holt trusts her team to be her representatives
while she tours the province. (Shane Fowler/CBC)
In the meantime, some voters are still sorting out in which riding they find themselves.
The Liberals are paying special attention to the Silverwood area running along the St. John River to the Fredericton city limit.
"Those are all new areas for her so we want to introduce her, so people can understand what she's about and why she's the best choice," Durnford said.
Wilson said he and some of his Lincoln-area neighbours were surprised at first to see their list of candidates, including Coon.
"It took me a while to figure that out, why I was suddenly voting for these people. It didn't click that there'd been a change," he said.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Comment by Daniel Franklin.
23 min ago
I wonder how long before Higgie starts talking about chem trails like his buddy Smith in Alberta? Gotta keep the PC supporters stocked up on alcan.
Comment by Daniel Franklin.
24 min ago
The PC supporters look awfully nervous for a group that says it will be another Higgs majority.
Comment by David Amos.
31 min ago
Quispamsis has 2 party leaders running against each other but we all know why nobody wants to talk about it Correct?
Comment by valmond landry.
56 min ago
from what i gather higgs is going to get at least two votes whow!
Reply by David Amos.
30 min ago
Whereas I can't vote how many will I get?
Comment by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
Beating Holt in the riding is simply a matter of letting her talk.
Reply by valmond landry.
1 hr ago
HOLT is a very smart lady well qualified to do the job and a lot of experience compare to this my way or no way government .
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
Give her 5 minutes and she'll call locals un-educated regressives.
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
You'd think with all the experience she has, she wouldn't slap such unflattering labels on the people of Bathurst.
Reply by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
If tax, spend, and scandals is what you are looking for to do the job, she certainly is the person.
Reply by valmond landry.
1 hr ago
which scandal ?
Reply by Geordan Mann.
59 min ago
You know, the NB government tax revenue in 2022 was $8.45 billion (StatsCan) and the provincial debt in 2022 was about $12.4 billion (PNB). You keep bragging about Higgs financial record but it is really not very considering Federal $ including pandemic contributions constituted most of the surplus he claims all the time.
Reply by David Amos.
25 min ago
Check out June 6th IMHO Carlin deserves to defeat Holt
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/susan-holt-bathurst-education-comments-1.7346310
""I'm in urban Fredericton," Holt said. "It's really progressive people here, highly educated. My riding of Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore is a totally different makeup.""
Reply by Ralph Skavinsky.
59 min ago
Holt sounds like the north is dog patch while Ftn is snob hill..not too bright in doing such a comparison
Reply by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
Well I was going to list the property tax fiasco, but we will just call that a major screwup. That gov't was hiding millions for a certain games, read up on it if you like.
Comment by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
If the Liberals did get in, but Holt did not, it could work for NBers if they appoint a leader who is not a Gallant clone. Someone not controlled by the Society, someone that understands fiscal management. This person would not be as good as Higgs but they could certainly help out NB by picking a better leader.
Reply by David Amos.
23 min ago
Dream on and keep spinning
Comment by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
If govt's should not worry about debt since it does not give us anything, why should we bother paying our mortgages, I know after I pay mine, I don't have anything more to show for it. While I'm at it, I'll stop paying off my credit card too, I mean, what could go wrong.
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
Why pay your bills when they'll just send you more next month.
Not paying your bills is a victimless crime, like punching someone in the dark.
Reply by Robert Brannen.
1 hr ago
For many people, if not for the majority of people, debt has given them the houses in which they live.
Reply by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
We all incur debt, but we do so within our means. There is a reason banks do homework on who they lend money to, because it needs to be paid back.
Reply by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
We can bump up our payments, we can make lump sum payments, why would people do that? It is no advantage to the bank.
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
Not the same thing.
The equivalent would be buying a house, then every year maxing out your credit cards then paying them off by adding that debt on top of your mortgage for decades until you owe $11.6 Billion dollars on a Bungalow.
Reply by David Amos.
9 min ago
I suspect that there are a lot of old folks like me who are not in the same boat as you. We pay property taxes, the power bill and the GST on it yet we have no mortgage or credit card nor do we pay income tax. However many vote
Comment by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
Higgs, as he often is, was bang on when he said financial literacy should be mandatory in high school. One only has to spend a short time on these boards to see the repercussions of not having that skill. Many of the left think debt is not actually a real thing. Are the debt payments we make not real? When our debt goes up along with those payments, are those not real? When we currently pay more federally to service our debt than our healthcare, is that not real?
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
Schools teach our children important things like how everyone is a winner, you don't have to try to succeed, and ignore the man in the women's bathroom.
When would they have time to teach financial literacy?
Reply by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
Reading, writing/typing, math, and financial literacy. If you come out of school with those skills intact one will do well.
Reply by valmond landry.
1 hr ago
remember one thing debt is real however theirs is a lot of people buying things that they know they can't afford just to show off one example how much money was spent my this government just to pay lawyers in order to have things his way ?
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
"how much money was spent by this government just to pay lawyers in order to have things his way"
Much less than the $2.3 billion they paid on our debt.
Reply by Ronald Miller.
1 hr ago
Gov't lawyers are paid a salary regardless what they are doing, including protecting the taxpayers of NB from those looking to take down our province.
Reply by valmond landry.
1 hr ago
most of that from the federal.
Reply by Jack Bell.
1 hr ago
...and what did every other province having the same issues as us do with the funds they received instead of paying down $2.3 billion in debt?
Reply by valmond landry.
1 hr ago
time for a coffee have a good day
Reply by David Amos.
2 min ago
I had to battle Higgy et al tooth and nail to finally get a Health Care Card but what about my dispute with Higgy back in 2013 about the pension plans? If folks had listened to me then we would have been debt free over 10 years ago.
I repeated my idea during debates and on TV when I ran in 2015 and 2018 and 2019 and now I am doing so again. Correct?
Reply by David Amos.
1 min ago
Deja Vu Anyone???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZqArRNshSM&t=437s
2018 New Brunswick Provincial Election Saint John Region Candidate Messages