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The six, or nine, or 14 ridings that may determine the election

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The six, or nine, or 14 ridings that may determine the election

Every race is important but these key contests may decide which party governs New Brunswick

In a close election, every vote counts and every riding is important.

But when party campaign strategists look at a map of New Brunswick's 49 constituencies, they focus on some more than others.

For the Progressive Conservatives, under Blaine Higgs, to hold on to power — or for Susan Holt's Liberals to succeed in ousting them — a handful of key races are must-wins, many of them in the three largest cities.

The Green Party's clout in the next legislature is also in play.

WATCH | Key ridings in this election explained:
 

New Brunswick votes: Key ridings explained

Want to watch the election like a true analyst? Here’s a look at the six ridings that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

The uncertainty in those pivotal ridings was evident among voters late last week in Rockwood Park in Saint John, a city with at least two pivotal ridings.

"I'm not entirely decided," Paddy Huizinga said.

"It used to be there wasn't that big of difference between one party and the other, and now there is." 

Madison Kelson said her riding of Saint John Harbour seemed "pretty close." 

Robert Collette said one candidate at his door "seemed like a nice fella, but because of the party leader, I told the gentlemen, 'If it wasn't for the party leader, I'd probably vote for you.'"

A party needs to win 25 seats to have a majority government.

Heading into the campaign, the PCs held — thanks to departures and defections — 25 seats, compared to 16 for the Liberals and three for the Greens. There was one independent MLA and four seats were vacant.

Here are six key ridings that, if they all go Liberal, could deprive the PCs of that majority.

Fredericton South-Silverwood

This new riding includes part of the former Fredericton South, which Green Leader David Coon won in 2020, and part of Fredericton West-Hanwell, where there is a strong PC voting history.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt is on the ballot here and is not a shoe-in. Holt lost badly to Coon in Fredericton South in 2018, and in 2020 the PCs had more votes within the contours of the new riding.

Saint John Harbour 

This constituency in the Port City's urban core has swung between PCs and Liberals recently, sometimes by narrow margins.

Arlene Dunn won it comfortably for the PCs in 2020, but the race was decided by just 10 votes in 2018, 71 votes in 2014 and seven votes in 2010.

If Liberal candidate David Hickey, a city councillor, can't win, it doesn't bode well for his party provincially.

Saint John Portland-Simonds 

The area was represented for 25 years by PC MLA Trevor Holder, one of six elected members who rebelled against Blaine Higgs last year over Policy 713 and his leadership style.

Holder opted not to run again.

Whether the turmoil costs Higgs this seat — or others — is up to voters.

The Liberal candidate also has a history with Higgs: Dr. John Dornan was fired by the premier from his position as Horizon Health CEO. He later won a wrongful dismissal lawsuit against the province.

Moncton East 

Moncton is another make-or-break area for the election.

Moncton East has been redrawn since the last election, when PC candidate Daniel Allain won it and became the only francophone member of Higgs's caucus for two years.

Without Allain on the ballot, the Liberals see an opportunity to flip a riding from the PCs.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac 

The Liberals won here easily in 2020, but Réjean Savoie picked it up for the PCs in a 2022 byelection and became the second francophone PC MLA and cabinet minister in the Higgs government.

The Liberals hope to win it back.

Champdoré-Irishtown

This is a new riding carved out of parts of the old Moncton East riding and some areas that were previously in Kent South.

There is a Liberal voting history here so the party sees this as a potential gain.

Other ridings that may be pivotal

The PCs would be reduced to 24 seats if the Liberals sweep all six of those constituencies — one short of a majority.

But the Liberals would rather have a majority and not rely on the Green Party to pass budgets and legislation.

In Fredericton North and Miramichi East, they believe there's a chance they can defeat PC candidates Jill Green and Michelle Conroy.

And they are hoping that former federal PC MP John Herron, running as a Liberal, will defeat PC candidate Faytene Grasseschi in Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins.

Many longtime PCs who opposed Grasseschi's candidacy are backing Herron.

Winning those three additional seats would give the Liberals a 25-seat majority — assuming nothing else changes.

PC pickup possibilities

The Progressive Conservatives are generally playing defence in this election, but there are some races where they hope to upset seemingly solid Liberal incumbents.

In Bathurst, in a seat that has been Liberal for almost a century, Mayor Kim Chamberlain is running for the PCs.

She may be their best shot of gaining a seat in the predominantly francophone north, though Liberal René Legacy's high profile — and likely cabinet role — make it a tough climb.

And in Moncton Centre, Liberal incumbent Rob McKee is confronting newly redrawn riding boundaries.

It now takes in parts of the former Moncton Southwest riding that were solidly PC in 2020.

Greens under pressure

The election isn't a cakewalk for the three Green candidates running for re-election, either.

Two in particular are facing new challenges.

Coon's Fredericton South riding was cut in two by the electoral boundary redistricting.

He is running in Fredericton Lincoln, a fusion of parts of his old riding, where he won handily last time, and new areas which have voted strongly PC in recent elections.

Kevin Arseneau, another Green MLA in the last legislature, is facing a challenge in Kent North from Pat Finnigan, a well-liked former two-term federal Liberal MP.

A win by Finnigan wouldn't change the overall math for the PCs but it could be the difference between a Liberal majority or minority. 

The same goes for Tracadie, which the Greens hope to grab from the Liberals.

Green candidate Serge Brideau, the well-known lead singer for the Acadian rock group Les Hôtesses d'Hilaire, won 35.4 per cent of the vote in the 2023 byelection in Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-St. Isidore, which Holt won.

This time he is running in Tracadie against two-term Liberal Keith Chiasson.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Jacques Poitras

Provincial Affairs reporter

Jacques Poitras has been CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick since 2000. He grew up in Moncton and covered Parliament in Ottawa for the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal. He has reported on every New Brunswick election since 1995 and won awards from the Radio Television Digital News Association, the National Newspaper Awards and Amnesty International. He is also the author of five non-fiction books about New Brunswick politics and history.

 
 
 
313 Comments
 


David Amos
Methinks the all knowing political scientists have decided that I don't have a prayer in Quispamsis against Higgy et al N'esy Pas?

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
David itmight t be best to go with a known party then try to make what you feel are the necessary adjustments to better rep your constituency

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky  
I would never belong to any party that would have me for a member

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Either that or go with the new Consensus Party..now there I feel is the better thought.

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky  
Surely you jest

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Then you are just spinning your wheels David with no progress on the horizon..too bad really.

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky  
Are you sure about that?

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Give me a hint to which you speak,please kind sir.

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
How can a Consensus Party have a leader?

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Read how it's done in the NWT for one jurisdiction. It's all straight forward David..Google it!

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Why did Higgy's minions invite me to sue the government again then blink and finally give me a Health Care Card?

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
I talked to the dudes in NWT 20 years ago that is why I did not sue them in 2015

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
It seems you have an ongoing axe to grind. I of course am not privy to your problem with the government. But apparently the " card" issue must have been rectified so it should be all good.

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
Sorry David...I can't follow your argument(s )..have a good day!

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Perhaps you should Google me and the ERRE Committee and listen to what I said about the NWT when they visited Fat Fred City just before Thanksgiving in 2016

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
They have yet to give me my money back

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
I have errands to do right now.. will try to fathom my way thru it all later.

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
You are the one who picked this fight

Ralph Skavinsky
Reply to David Amos
I picked a fight..lol..nope. Just trying to help to understand your problem(s) ...the last thing I do is pick a fight...lol..you really don't know me and that's probably good...later gotta run

David Wilson
Reply to David Amos
What's with the "Methinks" and "N'esy Pas" ?

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
I am very busy too because this is the last day for submissions to the public inquiry into foreign interference

David Amos
Reply to David Wilson
As your friends and my opponents I have explained a bunch of times over the years

David Amos
Reply to Ralph Skavinsky
Who said I wanted to know you? Is that even your real name?

James Risdon
Reply to David Wilson
Good question.

David Amos
Reply to James Risdon
Why not ask your former Party Leader?

David Amos
Reply to David Amos
Well I got the submission in on time and their Senior Communications Advisor affirmed it



William Murdoch
The Liberals apparently made a major mistake going with the Leader they chose.

https://338canada.com/nb/

David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Yup

Jay Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
    These are as of Oct 4 (today’s date is Oct 16) - There should be polling numbers as of Oct 11 - but 338Canada has not posted them because the Libs will form the next Majority Government



Hugh MacDonald
Many people today are taking comedians seriously and politicians as jokes.

David Amos
Reply to Hugh MacDonald
Welcome to the circus



William Murdoch
338 latest projection

Susan Holt will lose her seat.

Probable Progressive Conservative Majority.

Liberals to win the popular vote - as if the popular vote has ever mattered before.

Jay Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
There should be polling numbers as of Oct 11 - but 338Canada has not posted them because the Libs will form the next Majority Government

David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
I concur



William Murdoch
During his next Majority (coming right up) I encourage Premier Higgs to start the machinations needed to shutter Duality across the board.

David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Methinks many agree that he will win a minority and then the Greens and the leaderless Red Coats will try to take control of the mandate N'esy Pas?



Ronald Miller
Content Deactivated
This left biased writer just posted an article about how the Liberals can dethrone the PCs. He focuses on the ridings they can flip but spends little time on ridings that could flip the other way. I know Lib supporters blindly support their party more than vice versa but this is once again very poor, and left biased reporting. He even goes so far as endorsing the Lib candidate in Bathurst, calling him high profile and a likely cabinet minister, really, where did he get that information? We have to remember, this is the same writer who attempted to take an infrastructure project and turn it negative and people may vote against the gov't because they have to take an alternate route during the construction.

William Murdoch
Reply to Ronald Miller
Fortunately few read opinion disguised as reporting at this site. Otherwise the call for The Mother Corp to fold would be overwhelming.

Ronald Miller
Reply to William Murdoch
There was actually an article on the Canada board either today or yesterday bringing up talk about removing funding, it continues to gather steam. But you are correct, the Holt fanbase gobbles it up, most others use it for entertainment purposes only.

fanbase gobbles it up, most others use it for entertainment purposes only.

David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Need I say that I always enjoyed the "Spin Reduxit" ?

William Murdoch
Reply to David Amos
Some of us sure do.

Jay Miller
Reply to Ronald Miller
I want a NB where there is social harmony, and where everyone is respected regardless of sexual orientation, ethnic origin and first language; a NB where the environment is a major preoccupation; a NB where it is safe to drive on highways during all 4 seasons; a NB I can call home / mon chez-moi; a NB where it feels good to wake-up and to go to sleep! A NB where there is no North, South, East or West - we are all one.



Daniel Franklin
Driving around Saint John today at lunch, I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of PC signs on lawns I was seeing compared to the other parties.

David Amos
Reply to Daniel Franklin
Methinks you missed a few important neighbourhoods N'esy Pas?

Daniel Franklin
Reply to David Amos
I'm not sure David, my route took me from Uptown to over West and then back to the industrial park. I saw 2 or 3 PC signs and double digits of the other 2. Too bad there are two parties on the left or Higgie wouldn't stand a fighting chance.

David Amos
Reply to Daniel Franklin
You must know that I am running against Higgy and I have been told there are lots of PC signs in certain areas



Archie MacDaniel
I already voted. Wrote in Ronald Miller

Archie MacDaniel
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
NB needs someone with all the answers

Dan Lee
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
lol......right or wrong.......

Ronald Miller
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Thank you, but do you have time for me with all the other people you obsess over? Irving, Irving, Irving, don't forget about them, just kidding, I know you didn't.

David Amos
Reply to Dan Lee
Ditto
 
Daniel Franklin  
Reply to Ronald Miller
Blaine? Is that you?



Arnold Duershere
I've already sent in my mail in ballots, I'm voting for the party that believes in science

William Murdoch
Reply to Arnold Duershere
Would that be The Science supporting the jabs? Don't stop transmission, Don't protect from contracting, and never in fact treated anything.

David Amos
Reply to William Murdoch
Methinks all the parties supported the jabs except one new one N'esy Pas??



William Murdoch
In every election I try to find some humorous incident.

Horsman with Carrs in tow - LOL

Archie MacDaniel
Reply to William Murdoch
Horsman with Mary Wilson holding the cat litter litter box behind him.

David Amos
Content Deactivated
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Northrup following Holt around like a puppy made my day

David Amos
Reply to Archie MacDaniel
Oh My My












































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