2 polls paint different pictures of voter plans ahead of election
New Narrative Research survey suggests big Liberal lead, Nanos poll sees dead heat
Two recent polls of New Brunswick voters paint very different pictures of which way they're leaning ahead of a provincial election scheduled for this fall.
Narrative Research's latest quarterly survey suggests the Liberals have opened a large lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives — the biggest they've had in six years.
In Narrative's sample, 44 per cent of those who were decided said they'd vote Liberal compared to 33 per cent for the PCs.
The Liberals haven't had that kind of advantage since August 2018, just before a provincial election that saw the party win the popular vote but capture fewer seats than the Tories, paving the way for Blaine Higgs to become premier.
But the Liberal showing in the Narrative poll is at odds with another recent survey that suggested a much tighter race.
In a poll by Nanos Research, the two parties were tied with 35.9 per cent support each among decided respondents.
The two polls use different questions and methodologies.
The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 21, with an official start to the campaign on Sept. 19.
The Narrative poll's margin of error on voter intention is six percentage points, meaning a poll of its size is accurate within that range 19 times out of 20.
The Greens were in third place in the Narrative poll, with 17 per cent support among decided respondents, followed by the NDP at four, and the People's Alliance at one.
It also found that Liberal Leader Susan Holt continues to hold the lead among respondents for their preference for premier, with Green Leader David Coon and Higgs in a statistical tie.
Narrative surveyed 400 New Brunswickers between July 31 and Aug. 17. Twenty-five per cent of respondents were undecided on the question of who they plan to vote for.
Sixty-seven per cent of respondents in that poll said they were dissatisfied with the overall performance of the Higgs government, compared to just 26 per cent who said they were satisfied.
The Nanos results were based on 350 decided voters surveyed between July 28 and 31. Its margin of error was 5.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
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THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, we discuss the two byelections that have been set for Sept. 16 in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. The Liberals are defending the first and the NDP the second. Between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who has the most to lose? You can join and listen or watch here: ![]()
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150 Comments
Cheryl Wigston
Reply to E-man
Is there anything positive too say?
Jim Lake
Reply to E-man
Maybe there hasn’t been a positive story because Higgs hasn’t done anything positive for New Brunswick since the school policy story … he’s more about himself than he is about governing for all New Brunswickers.
Dianne MacPherson
Reply to E-man
You are 'new' to this Website.....
nothing "positive" is ever written
about Premier Higgs here.
Daniel Henwell
I would NEVER vote liberal.
David Amos
Reply to Daniel Henwell
You are not alone
Cheryl Wigston
Reply to Daniel Henwell
Why.
David Wilson
I wonder why 110 other countries not called Canada very few of which have carbon taxes. have higher to much higher inflation than Canada
David Wilson
Reply to David Wilson
We should ask Pierre to explain that one.
serge montague
Reply to David Wilson
Go ahead when he's PM
Don Corey
Reply to David Wilson
After next fall’s election, there’ll be no consumer carbon tax to “explain”, and inflation will be immediately reduced by at least 1.5%. There’ll be subsequent inflation reduction as the positive impact (to farming and transportation in particular) works its way into lower costs for many goods and services.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out any of this, but liberals have never been very bright.
Don Corey
Reply to David Wilson
Tell that to millions of Canadians struggling with the ongoing cost of living crisis.
David Amos
Reply to Don Corey
Amen
Don Corey
Reply to David Wilson
and
David Amos
Pending approval
Reply to Don Corey
Perhaps the Fat Lady sings
Cheryl Wigston
Reply to serge montague
Thats a long way off and clearly undecided
Cheryl Wigston
Reply to Don Corey
You are living in a fantasy world if you think the cost of living will go down under a conservative government.
Denis Van Humbeck
Reply to David Wilson
Instead of a carbon tax they have extremely high taxes on fuel.
Robert Brannen
Reply to Don Corey
You will not be happy as you begin to deal with the unintended consequences of that move.
John Gray
Reply to Don Corey
Can you explain why when inflation levels have been dropping, we're not seeing lower costs? Why? Because it's not the carbon tax
ralph jacobs
I used to like completing polls and seeing how I agreed or disagreed with others. Lately I have not qualified for any as my preliminary questions don't make me a candidate to do one.
David Amos
Reply to ralph jacobs
Nobody is
Lou Bell
We must remember , the McKenna liberals gave NB low paying , minimum wage call center jobs that gave them low pay , no pension , and no future . Today we're all paying for that huge mistake . Retired workers who now have nothing but OAS and CPP , and nothing more . Solely for votes and nothing else for the benefit of NBers . Another " it will take care of itself moment itself " moment from the Liberals .
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Lou Bell
Have you noticed that anything that these 2 parties have ever done in the last 50 years benefited any average New Brunswicker's, except increase our taxes so a few could benefit financially, them or a company. Just made a few rich or richer. Now we are drowning in high taxes and wages are not following to keep up. Anything that the average NBer receives was a very long time coming. They do not work for us, both parties. Its out of control. You wait, soon they will all give themselves raises soon. Take it to the bank
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Lou Bell
They will label it hazardous or Dangerous benefits and there will be more Security following them soon.
David Amos
Pending approval
Reply to Shawn Tabor
She doesn't care
Robert Brannen
Reply to Lou Bell
We definitely need a party in power which respects the rights of the working person and the right to union affiliation.
Dianne MacPherson
Reply to Robert Brannen
Yeah.....Unions are high on everyone's list
with the Railroad Lockout/Strike.........NOT !!
Jos Allaire
Boo bye Higgie❗❗👏
David Wilson
Reply to Jos Allaire
The less regressive conservatives in power, the better.
Lou Bell
Reply to Jos Allaire
Sounds like the upcoming Higgs victory will spell the end of your tirades once and for all . Much like the resoundingly defeated candidates the liberals are running once again . ( many who were defeated while running for other parties . Quite evident no decent people want any part of the liberals these days .
Mike Fowler
Reply to Lou Bell
Losing an election doesn't make loyal party soldiers disappear.
Look around.
ralph jacobs
Reply to David Wilson
It's just personal opinion that makes a party good or bad. Some like the carbon tax some don't, some thought the EA was needed some didn't. Something that seems good to me might not to you and visa versa.
David Amos
Reply to Lou Bell
Will we see your name on a ballot?
David Amos
Reply to Jos Allaire
Don't count your chickens before they hatch
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Mike Fowler
So so true, Great Grampy, Grampy, and the sons and daughters and there sons and daughters. Got to keep it going, is the saying
John Dutton
Wishful hope Jacque many people will rather vote for PC than your darling liberals despite not many liking Higgs. I couldn't care less for Higgs but I will never vote for liberals again not a chance.
David Wilson
Reply to John Dutton
Why?
David Amos
Reply to David Wilson
They think budgets will balance themselves
David Webb
Reply to David Wilson
I can answer that one. Debt, debt, debt and taxes. In NB alone we pay in the neighborhood of $2 MILLION PER DAY in interest payments. Lets not even talk about the federal mess! What could we do with all of that money, wasted.
Dan Lee
Reply to David Webb
we could do the same..........stop with the subsidies to billionaires..........royalties..... free crown wood thatWE pay so that he may cut it.......................
Geordan Mann
What a choice. One party leader is a mini dictator and the other worked in Gallant's office and appears lost whenever she speaks. Then there is always the Green folks who have no chance of forming government. Won't vote for Higgs because I like ethical leaders but the other two are just as annoying in different ways.
Jake Newman
Reply to Geordan Mann
because you say he's unethical, doesn't mean he is.
Geordan Mann
Reply to Jake Newman
Geez, no kidding. It is an opinion, right?
Don Corey
Reply to Geordan Mann
I don’t care for Higgs, but think even less of the other two possibilities. One would be a revival of Gallant (worst government in NB history) and the other is….well, can’t say it here, but it’s not good.
David Amos
Reply to Jake Newman
He is
David Amos
Reply to Geordan Mann
I'm not kidding
David Amos
Reply to Don Corey
I would like to see a repeat of 2018 if only to watch Higgy court the PANB again
Jake Newman
liberal government will bring higher taxes.
Don Corey
Reply to Jake Newman
Yeah, they need it to help pay for all the spending; then borrow the rest.
Mike Fowler
Reply to Don Corey
Lower taxes. Borrow the difference.
How can you lose?
David Amos
Reply to Mike Fowler
You mean WE correct?
Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
Once again, left of centre and the left make up the majority of voters yet when the party opposite wins the most seats, it clams it has a mandate.
Luc Newsome
Reply to Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
I can never find the center…. It’s like it moves
Jake Newman
Reply to Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
however since they won they form he majority
Allan Marven
Reply to Luc Newsome
Remember the saying...fool me once....
David Amos
Reply to Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
Because they do
Marc LeBlanc
Polls are for dogs to relieve themselves on
David Amos
Reply to Marc LeBlanc
True
Cheryl Wigston
Reply to Don Corey
You are living in a fantasy world if you think the cost of living will go down under a conservative government.
Denis Van Humbeck
Reply to David Wilson
Instead of a carbon tax they have extremely high taxes on fuel.
Robert Brannen
Reply to Don Corey
You will not be happy as you begin to deal with the unintended consequences of that move.
John Gray
Reply to Don Corey
Can you explain why when inflation levels have been dropping, we're not seeing lower costs? Why? Because it's not the carbon tax
ralph jacobs
I used to like completing polls and seeing how I agreed or disagreed with others. Lately I have not qualified for any as my preliminary questions don't make me a candidate to do one.
David Amos
Reply to ralph jacobs
Nobody is
Lou Bell
We must remember , the McKenna liberals gave NB low paying , minimum wage call center jobs that gave them low pay , no pension , and no future . Today we're all paying for that huge mistake . Retired workers who now have nothing but OAS and CPP , and nothing more . Solely for votes and nothing else for the benefit of NBers . Another " it will take care of itself moment itself " moment from the Liberals .
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Lou Bell
Have you noticed that anything that these 2 parties have ever done in the last 50 years benefited any average New Brunswicker's, except increase our taxes so a few could benefit financially, them or a company. Just made a few rich or richer. Now we are drowning in high taxes and wages are not following to keep up. Anything that the average NBer receives was a very long time coming. They do not work for us, both parties. Its out of control. You wait, soon they will all give themselves raises soon. Take it to the bank
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Lou Bell
They will label it hazardous or Dangerous benefits and there will be more Security following them soon.
David Amos
Pending approval
Reply to Shawn Tabor
She doesn't care
Robert Brannen
Reply to Lou Bell
We definitely need a party in power which respects the rights of the working person and the right to union affiliation.
Dianne MacPherson
Reply to Robert Brannen
Yeah.....Unions are high on everyone's list
with the Railroad Lockout/Strike.........NOT !!
Jos Allaire
Boo bye Higgie❗❗👏
David Wilson
Reply to Jos Allaire
The less regressive conservatives in power, the better.
Lou Bell
Reply to Jos Allaire
Sounds like the upcoming Higgs victory will spell the end of your tirades once and for all . Much like the resoundingly defeated candidates the liberals are running once again . ( many who were defeated while running for other parties . Quite evident no decent people want any part of the liberals these days .
Mike Fowler
Reply to Lou Bell
Losing an election doesn't make loyal party soldiers disappear.
Look around.
ralph jacobs
Reply to David Wilson
It's just personal opinion that makes a party good or bad. Some like the carbon tax some don't, some thought the EA was needed some didn't. Something that seems good to me might not to you and visa versa.
David Amos
Reply to Lou Bell
Will we see your name on a ballot?
David Amos
Reply to Jos Allaire
Don't count your chickens before they hatch
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Mike Fowler
So so true, Great Grampy, Grampy, and the sons and daughters and there sons and daughters. Got to keep it going, is the saying
John Dutton
Wishful hope Jacque many people will rather vote for PC than your darling liberals despite not many liking Higgs. I couldn't care less for Higgs but I will never vote for liberals again not a chance.
David Wilson
Reply to John Dutton
Why?
David Amos
Reply to David Wilson
They think budgets will balance themselves
David Webb
Reply to David Wilson
I can answer that one. Debt, debt, debt and taxes. In NB alone we pay in the neighborhood of $2 MILLION PER DAY in interest payments. Lets not even talk about the federal mess! What could we do with all of that money, wasted.
Dan Lee
Reply to David Webb
we could do the same..........stop with the subsidies to billionaires..........royalties..... free crown wood thatWE pay so that he may cut it.......................
Geordan Mann
What a choice. One party leader is a mini dictator and the other worked in Gallant's office and appears lost whenever she speaks. Then there is always the Green folks who have no chance of forming government. Won't vote for Higgs because I like ethical leaders but the other two are just as annoying in different ways.
Jake Newman
Reply to Geordan Mann
because you say he's unethical, doesn't mean he is.
Geordan Mann
Reply to Jake Newman
Geez, no kidding. It is an opinion, right?
Don Corey
Reply to Geordan Mann
I don’t care for Higgs, but think even less of the other two possibilities. One would be a revival of Gallant (worst government in NB history) and the other is….well, can’t say it here, but it’s not good.
David Amos
Reply to Jake Newman
He is
David Amos
Reply to Geordan Mann
I'm not kidding
David Amos
Reply to Don Corey
I would like to see a repeat of 2018 if only to watch Higgy court the PANB again
Jake Newman
liberal government will bring higher taxes.
Don Corey
Reply to Jake Newman
Yeah, they need it to help pay for all the spending; then borrow the rest.
Mike Fowler
Reply to Don Corey
Lower taxes. Borrow the difference.
How can you lose?
David Amos
Reply to Mike Fowler
You mean WE correct?
Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
Once again, left of centre and the left make up the majority of voters yet when the party opposite wins the most seats, it clams it has a mandate.
Luc Newsome
Reply to Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
I can never find the center…. It’s like it moves
Jake Newman
Reply to Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
however since they won they form he majority
Allan Marven
Reply to Luc Newsome
Remember the saying...fool me once....
David Amos
Reply to Carole Lowes-Kotiesen
Because they do
Marc LeBlanc
Polls are for dogs to relieve themselves on
David Amos
Reply to Marc LeBlanc
True
David Wilson
It's simple. Never vote conservative.
Allan Marven
Reply to David Wilson
I'll re-iterate . Vote about egotist leaders. My vote is anti-PCNB this year, and anti-LPC next year.
Luc Newsome
Reply to David Wilson
Ignore policy vote the same party for life
David Wilson
Reply to Luc Newsome
I like policies that help those less fortunate than myself.
Eddy Geek
Reply to Allan Marven
It’s all just coke vs pepsi with little to no difference
One’s in office and blames everything on the other
The other wants to be in office so they can blame everything on the opposite
David Wilson
Reply to Eddy Geek
I disagree, the Liberals have put in place a whole series of life changing policies for people of low to average income, all of which the conservatives voted against and would never have made reality.
Luc Newsome
Reply to David Wilson
Donate more money
Eddy Geek
Reply to David Wilson
You mean like all of the pandemic spending the cons voted for then screamed bloody murder about?
Jake Newman
Reply to David Wilson
i like lower taxes,
serge montague
Reply to David Wilson
Why? The gov takes your money and invests in them. If they didn;t would you not be free to dole out(help) those less fortunate ?
MR Cain
Content Deactivated
Reply to Jake Newman
Jake Newman
Reply to MR Cain
lol, second time i think you've questioned where I live. Strange but ok, and you have no idea where I live. Higgs has promised to reduce the GST, which is a good thing.
Stephen Campbell
Reply to David Wilson
I assume you are referring to the carbon tax, which has been a windfall for me. I am so much better off thanks to that levy.
David Wilson
Reply to Stephen Campbell
Dental, pharmacare., feeding hungry kids in school, 10 dollar a day daycare etc...
MR Cain
Reply to Jake Newman
Nova Scotia of course, and no, Higgs is lowering the PST, which is pitiful.
Don Corey
Reply to David Wilson
This is a provincial election. The federal liberals that you brag about are on a straight road to annihilation next fall. It can’t happen soon enough.
Jake Newman
Reply to MR Cain
lowering taxes is always good.
MR Cain
Reply to Jake Newman
Not as good as the Liberal deal; everybody wins big.
Lou Bell
Reply to David Wilson
Sure they have . The McKenna Liberals gave us low paying minim um wage call center jobs that paid low wages , no pensions , and no future . Today we're paying greatly for all those people who have an income of CPP , OAS , and nothing more . Now there's a legacy to be proud of !
Don Corey
Reply to MR Cain
Nope, everyone is much better off with a 2% reduction in the sales tax (and therefore wiping the Gallant government 2% increase in 2016).
David Amos
Reply to Don Corey
Bingo
Shawn Tabor
It does not matter who is in power, we the average bears are going to be paying higher taxes and these folks do not care. You know this. Watch who comes ahead on the financial scale of things, on the taxpayers dime
Allan Marven
Reply to Shawn Tabor
They can be the best person you have heard of. A very short time as leader, they get pulled over the event horizon of corruption, pulled in by the old boys and business "gurus". Regardless of party.
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Allan Marven
Yes yes and yes
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Shawn Tabor
The corruption goes so deep and backrooms deals, its truly sickening. You can’t believe any parties anymore. Hope nobody gets hurt.
Shawn Tabor
Reply to Shawn Tabor
Sad state of affairs in little NB lol
David Amos
Reply to Allan Marven
They are vetted by the old boys and business "gurus" before they are allowed to lead a big party
Kyle Woodman
Maybe Outhouse isn't worth 20k/ month.
Allan Marven
Reply to Kyle Woodman
I know what I do with mine.
David Amos
Reply to Kyle Woodman
He has created quite a circus for us to enjoy by parking Higgy's bus for a year
Robert Brannen
It would have been informative if the difference in the polling methodologies used had been revealed. I suspect one is a random sampling (the old, more accurate, methodology) and the other is a non-random sampling (the more recent methodology, utilizing the the internet and producing non-representative results).
Luc Newsome
Reply to Robert Brannen
Fyi…. Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are drawn from a random sample of 400 adult New Brunswickers,
Nanos….RDd dual frame
Robert Brannen
Reply to Luc Newsome
RDD is the less representative of the two methods, and has become progressively less representative with ongoing changes in computer technology.
David Amos
Reply to Luc Newsome
It should be interesting to how Grenier boils it down
jean marc michaud
Pay attention people, conservative will be federal and you want liberal here....see what we'll get out of this...
Robert Brannen
Reply to jean marc michaud
The national pollsters all use a methodology similar to that used by Nanos, I expect that it gives the poll results an inaccurate bias similar to that being demonstrated by these New Brunswick polls.
David Amos
Reply to jean marc michaud
It will be the same as it is now
Kyle Woodman
Higgs is toast.
Kat Jo
Reply to Kyle Woodman
Higgs all the way, baby. I'll be toasting his success.
James Risdon
Reply to Kyle Woodman
Maybe. But, then again, most people like toast. They have it every morning for breakfast.
David Amos
Reply to Kyle Woodman
I wouldn't bet the farm on the outcome
valmond landry
put them all in the same bag and what do you get ?
Allan Marven
Reply to valmond landry
Trailer park boys: Best line ever... Lahey on one of his rants... " It's called $$$ plate tectonics, you grind two $$$ plates together, and wadaya get ? A $$$ quake. " (tihs spelled backwards in case you didn't see the episode.)
Jay Schuster
Reply to valmond landry
burnt toast.
David Amos
Reply to Allan Marven
I never watched the Trailer Park Boys but one of these dudes pretended to be Lahey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpxbOXaCnlo
Eddy Geek
Meh, the only poll that matters is the votes; the rest is pure speculation
David Amos
Reply to Eddy Geek
Mais Oui
Glen robert
If you want to see how accurate a poll is.
Ask 10 people on the street.
Alison Jackson
Reply to Glen robert
I'm not sure what you mean? What street and what town, what neighborhood?
David Amos
Reply to Alison Jackson
It was a joke
Greg Miller
Seriously, who cares -- it's the same old -- same old!
David Amos
Reply to Greg Miller
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose N'esy Pas?
MR Cain
Nanos is a Conservative poll.
Don Corey
Reply to MR Cain
Is that because you don’t like their poll results. Trudeau supposedly doesn’t, but he’s certainly paying attention regardless. It’s way to late for him; not a chance.
Eddy Geek
Reply to Don Corey
No, it is because who owns Nanos
But then again, I don't trust most if not all polls
MR Cain
Reply to Eddy Geek
Ok the poll always leans toward the Conservative element. Only one poll matters.
David Amos
Reply to Eddy Geek
Nor I
9 Comments