Trudeau says Canada can meet NATO's military spending benchmark by 2032
The Trudeau government has been under increasing pressure from allies to ramp up investments in defence
Following a blizzard of criticism from allies — most notably the United States — the Liberal government announced Thursday that it hopes to meet NATO's military investment benchmark of two per cent of alliance members' gross domestic products by 2032.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the statement at the close of the alliance's annual summit in Washington — even as he sharply questioned the worthiness of the goal.
"We continually step up and punch above our weight, something that isn't always reflected in the crass mathematical calculation that certain people turn to very quickly," Trudeau said. "Which is why we've always questioned the two per cent as the be-all, end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO."
The timeline was delivered with few details. Trudeau said the goal will be met by investing in new defence capabilities, such as submarines, which are not yet costed or approved.
Multiple western leaders attending this week's NATO summit in Washington have said that all allies need to meet the military investment benchmark in an increasingly volatile world.
NATO has asked each of its 32 members to deliver a plan to meet the two per cent goal, if they haven't already. Twenty-three NATO allies are meeting the two per cent commitment now.
Canada currently sets aside a sum equivalent to 1.3 per cent of its GDP for the military. It has a plan to reach 1.76 per cent by the end of the decade, but NATO, the United States and the Canadian business community have been insisting that the federal government deliver some kind of plan to get to two per cent.
Trudeau met with U.S. lawmakers and representatives of the business community this week. He insisted he faced no pressure either on Capitol Hill or at the summit table.
"It actually hasn't been a political problem this week," he said "It has been a conversation and allies have been pleased to hear that we have a plan and a timeline to get to two per cent."
His message got a mixed response from U.S. lawmakers.
'Shocking and unacceptable'
Sen. Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, met with the prime minister and heard his pitch.
Speaking on the floor of the Senate, Wicker acknowledged Canada's timeline and urged Trudeau to meet it.
"It's shocking and unacceptable that some allies, especially some capable ones, have yet to reach the two per cent requirement that they agreed to," Wicker said in reference to last year's NATO summit, where Canada agreed with its allies to make two per cent an enduring commitment.
"Canada is among this group, which has not and for several years in the future will not reach its need."
On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen released a statement saying the Biden administration is pleased to see Canada present a timeline for meeting the target.
The government has committed to a regular cycle of defence reviews. The next one is set for 2028.
"We will continue to explore opportunities that will further increase defence spending and advance Canada's strategic interests," Trudeau said.
The announcement of a timeline without details did not quell criticism of Canada's defence spending — especially now that some allies, notably Poland, are calling for the NATO benchmark to be moved even higher.
Last month, the Business Council of Canada warned the government that it needed to go into the NATO summit with a plan and a clear statement for allies.
On Thursday, the group representing the country's top CEOs said it was disappointed by the lack of detail in the timeline.
"The announcement does not clarify how any new defence investments will be fiscally sustainable," the Business Council of Canada said in a media statement. It also urged the government to meet the benchmark by at least the end of the decade.
"Given the lack of detail, today's announcement is unlikely to address the many frustrations and concerns expressed by leaders this week in Washington D.C.," the statement added.
Officials with the council say Canada's reluctance to spend more on defence than planned comes up repeatedly with American lawmakers when they try to talk with them about business and economic matters.
Time is a factor. If former U.S. president Donald Trump regains the White House in this fall's election, Canada could face even more pressure to step up defence spending.
Elbridge Colby, a prominent Trump supporter who could play a key national security role in a new Republican administration, also criticized the vagueness of the timeline and warned Canada needs to be prepared to go further.
"I think it's progress but inadequate," Colby said in a text message. "We now need to see 2.5 per cent realistically as a baseline. Especially with countries, like Canada, that have dismantled their militaries."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Canada commits an extra $500M in military assistance as NATO rallies around Ukraine
New military assistance will help expand pilot training as Ukraine receives its first F-16s
Canada plans to commit an additional $500 million in military assistance to Ukraine this year, the federal government said on the sidelines of the NATO Summit.
The announcement, late Wednesday, capped a day where the 32-member alliance clearly felt the political pressure of a war going badly.
NATO delivered long-sought commitments and reassurance, stating in its official declaration the Eastern European country is on an "irreversible" path to membership.
The additional money, on top of the projected $4 billion in arms and munitions Canada has already pledged and donated, came following a bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Washington summit.
The majority of the funding will go toward a NATO-led, 40-billion euro initiative that aims to provide the war-ravaged country with steady financing and predictable military support.
At the same time, Canada said it would expand its training of Ukrainian pilots who are learning to fly Western warplanes.
The federal government had previously committed tens of millions toward the training, but a senior federal official, speaking on background Wednesday, said Canada will play a more active role in the instruction, some of which has been spearheaded by the private sector.
Last winter, Defence Minister Bill Blair — in two separate announcements — committed $75 million, $15 million of which went to pay for civilian pilot instructors from Montreal-based Top Aces Inc.
The U.S., the Netherlands and Denmark announced Wednesday that the first NATO-provided F-16s would be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots by this summer.
Canada does not operate the U.S.-manufactured warplane, but it is used by Top Aces, a private company that offers a wide range of fighter jet instruction.
Zelenskyy posted on X about his appreciation of the effort to strengthen his air force, coming soon after Ukraine saw one of the deadliest strikes of the war.
Allies wrestled behind closed doors for weeks on the language of the overall summit declaration when it came to Ukraine and its eventual membership.
The U.S. and some other countries have opposed membership for Ukraine during the conflict with Russia to avoid an escalation of tensions that could lead to a larger war. They also have stressed that Ukraine must take significant steps to address corruption as well as other systemic reforms.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underlined that Ukraine will not join the alliance's ranks immediately. But he insisted that must happen after the war is over to ensure that Russia never attacks Ukraine again.
Of the overall NATO assistance, he said: "We are not doing this because we want to prolong a war. We are doing it because we want to end a war as soon as possible."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Canada confirms plan to replace submarine fleet at NATO summit
The timing of the announcement could be an attempt to blunt criticism of Ottawa's defence spending
Canada definitely plans to move forward with the purchase of new submarines, the federal government announced on the margins of the NATO Summit on Wednesday.
Up to now, the government has spoken only about the possibility of replacing the aging Victoria-class boats. But in the face of mounting criticism of Canada's defence spending by allies — notably the United States — Ottawa has given the proposal the green light.
A senior government official, speaking on background, said they could not confirm how much the plan will cost, how many boats will be purchased or when they will arrive.
The submarine construction program will be separate from the National Shipbuilding Strategy because no shipyards in Canada currently have the capacity or technology to build sophisticated sub-surface vessels.
Defence
Minister Bill Blair says the federal government is reaching out to
shipbuilders as it moves to acquire a new submarine fleet. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld)
Defence Minister Bill Blair announced Wednesday that Canada "is taking the first step towards the procurement of up to 12 conventionally-powered, under-ice capable submarines."
He said the federal government is formally launching the process to find out what submarine builders can offer.
"Through the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP), Canada will acquire a larger, modernized submarine fleet to enable the Royal Canadian Navy to covertly detect and deter maritime threats, control our maritime approaches, project power and striking capability further from our shores, and project a persistent deterrent on all three coasts," Blair said in a media statement.
The Department of National Defence is in the process of meeting with manufacturers and potential partners, Blair added.
"A formal Request for Information (RFI) will be posted in fall 2024 to gain further information on the procurement, construction, delivery and operational capabilities of potential bidders who can build submarines for Canada," the minister said.
"This RFI will also seek to gain information which will enable the establishment of a submarine sustainment capability in Canada."
Germany and Norway have pitched Canada on the idea of becoming part of their joint submarine program, which is expected to begin delivering boats by 2026.
South Korea is also interested and has held talks with Canadian officials about buying submarines and setting up a sustainment facility in Canada, a senior defence source said.
Sweden also has reportedly expressed interest.
The Liberal government's recent defence policy, released last spring, promised to "explore options" for new submarines. But since the policy was released, both Blair and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have insisted that buying new submarines is not a matter of if but of when, and how many.
Today's announcement could be seen as an attempt by the government to blunt criticism of Canada's continued failure to meet NATO's defence spending benchmark of two per cent of GDP.
Canada currently spends 1.37 per cent of its GDP on defence. The new defence policy forecasts spending will rise to 1.76 per cent by the end of the decade.
It's unlikely the submarine program will have an impact on the calculation because the federal government has no idea how much it will spend on the boats, or when.
Canada bought its current fleet of four submarines second-hand from the British in the late 1990s. The Department of National Defence spent hundreds of millions of dollars to bring them up to Canadian standards and it took a number of years to work out all the glitches.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR