Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to promote Canada's trade relationship with the United States in a speech to one of the biggest unions in North America next week.

Trudeau's office says he was invited to speak at the Service Employees International Union quadrennial North American convention on May 21.

The speech comes as Canada is bracing for the possibility of a second presidency for Donald Trump, who has already threatened to slap a 10 per cent tariff on all imports, including those from Canada.

The SEIU has endorsed President Joe Biden in the race.

It has more than two million members, including some in Canada, representing a broad range of workers in multiple service jobs including health care, restaurants, security, schools and airports.

While in Philadelphia, Trudeau is also expected to meet with U.S. business leaders.

Pennsylvania is one of Canada's most critical trade relationships in the U.S., with two-way trade in excess of $27 billion in 2023.

Fossil fuels, metals, pharmaceuticals and food products, including chocolate, are among the biggest imports and exports on both sides.

Canadian companies employ more than 25,000 workers in Pennsylvania.

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday turned away a Canadian former Guantanamo Bay detainee's bid to vacate his convictions for the 2002 murder of an American soldier in Afghanistan and other crimes he committed at age 15 to which he later pleaded guilty.

The justices declined to hear an appeal by Omar Khadr, 37, of a lower court's refusal to hear his case on the grounds that he had waived his right to appellate review as part of a 2010 plea agreement before a U.S. military commission.

Khadr was one of the youngest prisoners held at the detention facility at the U.S. naval base in Cuba. Khadr pleaded guilty in exchange for an eight-year sentence and transfer to a Canadian prison. He was granted bail in 2015 and completed his sentence in 2019 as he continued to pursue dismissal of his U.S. convictions.

He was taken to Afghanistan by his father, a senior al-Qaeda member who apprenticed his son to a group of bomb makers who opened fire when U.S. troops came to their compound in 2002. During the firefight, Khadr, 15, threw a hand grenade that killed Sergeant Christopher Speer, a U.S. Army medic. Khadr was gravely wounded — shot twice — when he was captured by U.S. forces.

In 2007, Khadr was charged under a 2006 U.S. law called the Military Commissions Act with five crimes including murder and attempted murder in violation of the law of war and providing material support to terrorism. He was 24 when he pleaded guilty.

In 2012, a federal appeals court in a separate Guantanamo Bay detainee's case issued a decision with potential implications for Khadr. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that defendants could not be charged under the Military Commissions Act for certain crimes that occurred prior to the law's adoption in 2006.

Former Guantanamo Bay prisoner Omar Khadr walks out of court a free man

Despite having agreed to waive his right to appellate review, Khadr appealed to the D.C. Circuit. Attorneys for Khadr argued that his convictions, which were based on actions he took in 2002 before Congress passed the statute, violated the U.S. Constitution's ban on criminalizing conduct after it has occurred.

The D.C. Circuit rejected Khadr's appeal because of his waiver of appellate review.

At issue in Khadr's petition to the Supreme Court was whether he is bound by his agreement to waive his right to appeal, not whether his convictions should be immediately vacated.

Khadr's attorneys told the Supreme Court that although Khadr had agreed to waive his right to appeal, he had not actually filed the paperwork to finalize the waiver when the D.C. Circuit issued its ruling establishing a new legal standard favourable to Khadr's case.

President Joe Biden's administration had urged the justices to turn away Khadr's appeal.

Khadr's plea deal came in a case that made the U.S. the first nation since the Second World War to prosecute a defendant in a war crimes tribunal for acts allegedly committed as a juvenile. Khadr's lawyers had argued unsuccessfully at the time that he was a child soldier who should be rehabilitated rather than prosecuted in a military tribunal.

Canada formally apologized to Khadr in 2017 "for any role Canadian officials may have played in relation to his ordeal abroad and any resulting harm" and paid out $10.5 million in compensation.

The United States opened the Guantanamo detention facility for foreign terrorism suspects in 2002, months after U.S. forces invaded Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. by al-Qaeda militants who were harboured by the country's Taliban leaders. The Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2022 after Biden withdrew U.S. forces.

The Supreme Court's decision to put off hearing arguments over immunity until now postponed Trump's trial from an original March 4 date. Legal experts have said the justices would need to rule by about June 1 for Trump's trial to be held before the Nov. 5 election.

The ruling could force Chutkan to decide whether to begin a trial in September or October, when early voting already will be underway in some states.

If Trump regains the presidency, he could seek to force an end to the prosecution or potentially pardon himself for any federal crimes.

"Happily it's never been presented to us," justice Neil Gorsuch said of the prospect of a self-pardon at one juncture on Thursday.

Trump also faces election subversion charges in state court in Georgia and federal charges in Florida brought by Smith relating to keeping classified documents after leaving office. Trump was referred to as an unindicted co-conspirator in fresh indictments handed down of several of his allies in Arizona on Wednesday.

In August 2016, when the current government was less than a year old, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet gathered at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ont. for a two-day retreat. The ministers bunked in the student dorms. The big story of the week concerned a $1,700 bill for car service incurred by Jane Philpott, health minister at the time.

Among their special guests were Michael Barber, the British guru behind "deliverology," and David MacNaughton, the experienced Liberal adviser who was serving as Canada's ambassador to the United States.

"All of the smart people in Washington were saying the Democrats were going to win the House, the Republicans would retain the Senate and Hillary Clinton would win the election," MacNaughton later told me. "And I qualified it by saying, 'All of the smart people in Washington have been consistently wrong for 18 months, so don't count on it.'"

At that point, national polls gave Clinton a six-point lead over her Republican rival. But the government needed to be prepared for every eventuality, MacNaughton told the ministers.

Three months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.

As Trudeau's ministers gather in Montreal for meetings this week, the possibility of a Trump presidency haunts Canada again. If anything, it seems even more plausible now than it did in 2016 — even after Trump incited a violent attack on the United States Capitol in 2021, even after he was indicted on 91 felony charges. Recent polls show President Joe Biden and Trump running roughly even.

The Liberal cabinet likely will spend most of its time discussing purely domestic matters during its two days in Trudeau's hometown — "building more homes" and "helping the middle class get ahead" will be topics of discussion, according to the official announcement. But ministers "will also discuss Canada's relationship with the United States ahead of this fall's presidential election."

Kirsten Hillman, MacNaughton's successor as ambassador, will be in Montreal to speak with the cabinet. She will be joined for a panel discussion by Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association; Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition; and Marc-Andre Blanchard, Canada's former ambassador to the United Nations and now executive vice-president at CDPQ Global.

Whatever insight or counsel they might provide, there's a lot to think — and worry — about.

The sequel might be more explosive than the original

During Trump's four years in office between 2017 and 2021, the American president was something like a constant source of concern for the Canadian government. That was particularly true during the year and a half when Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA.

That negotiation — and the threat it posed to the Canadian economy — prompted a massive diplomatic effort. Canadian officials fanned out to rally friends and find allies in American political and business circles. If that campaign met with some success, it still consumed great amounts of time and energy — and ended not in celebration but in relief. 

And then there was everything else. The American withdrawal from the Paris climate accords The blow-up at the G7. The aluminum and steel tariffs. The tweets. The regular and repeated demands to comment on whatever new outrage or controversy was making news in the United States.

The Trump agenda in a second term likely would be even more dramatic. He could withdraw from the NATO military alliance, end American support for Ukraine and start new trade wars.

Former U.S. president Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower for Manhattan federal court for the second defamation trial against him. (Charley Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images)

"We could expect, right off the bat, that 10 per cent universal tariff that Trump intends to impose, not just on other countries but on Canada as well," Dawson told CBC Radio's The House this weekend.

And of course, there's the profound threat Trump poses to American democracy. 

"One thing that Canadian politicians on all sides of the political spectrum are going to have to grapple with is, what does it mean to live next to a neighbour whose head of government and head of state is not just engaging in fascist, or borderline fascist, rhetoric, but is taking the policy steps to back it up?"Rob Goodman, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and a former congressional staffer, told The House.

With a few exceptions, Trudeau and his ministers were highly restrained in what they said — and didn't say — about Trump, both when he was a candidate in 2016 and when he was president. The possibility of provoking a fight with real consequences for Canadians and the economy seemed to be constantly top-of-mind for the prime minister.

 

Trump presidency could slow progress on climate change, Trudeau says

Duration 1:23

Canadians will be watching

When given the hypothetical choice, Canadians vastly prefer Biden to Trump — a poll released this week by Abacus Data found that 66 per cent of respondents favoured the Democratic incumbent, compared to 34 per cent for the likely Republican candidate.

There is a significant split along party lines. While more than 80 per cent of Liberal, NDP and Bloc Quebecois voters favour Biden, 57 per cent of Conservative voters prefer Trump.

(Perhaps surprisingly, Abacus finds that support for Trump is somewhat higher than the average among younger Canadians — a result that lines up with Pollara's recent finding that younger Canadians feel less negatively toward Trump.)

Canadians' understandings of the stakes are somewhat mixed. Sixty-four per cent of respondents to a survey by the Angus Reid Institute agreed that "U.S. democracy cannot survive another four years of Donald Trump." But only 32 per cent of respondents to Abacus said the election would have a "major impact" on Canada.

According to Abacus, 28 per cent of Canadians are following the presidential election "quite" or "very" closely. Another 43 per cent were following it "a little." Those numbers will surely grow over the next 10 months. American politics might be one of the world's most popular spectator sports, but in Canada it often seems to subsume even public interest in our own politics.

But ultimately, Canadians and their leaders can only watch and wonder, and try to prepare for all eventualities. 

Trudeau said this week that his government will be ready for whatever decision Americans make this year — and no Canadian government can afford to appear unready or unable to manage the Canada-U.S. relationship. In addition to focusing cabinet's attention, Hillman's appearance might be about showing and telling Canadians that the government is getting ready.

But Thomas Juneau, an associate professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, suggested to Politico this week that it might not be possible to be completely prepared for what comes next.

"Politically, I understand why he would say that, but Canada is not ready," said Juneau, who has identified "democratic backsliding" in the United States as a security threat for Canada.

"Nobody can be ready because it would be so unpredictable."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Tuesday that he has assigned two cabinet ministers to lead a new "Team Canada" engagement to ensure Canada and his government are prepared for all possible outcomes from this fall's United States presidential election.

"Canada-U.S. relations are fundamental for the prosperity and well-being of Canadians," Trudeau told reporters in Montreal, where he is wrapping up two days of meetings with his cabinet.

Trudeau said he has asked Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development Minister Mary Ng to work with Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman on "a Team Canada approach" with "businesses, entrepreneurs, organized labour, civil society groups, different orders of government, to make sure that we're ready to continue to benefit as Canadians from a strong relationship with the United States."

Hillman was in Montreal to meet with the federal cabinet on Tuesday.

Ministers also heard from Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association; Laura Dawson, executive director of the Future Borders Coalition; and Marc-Andre Blanchard, Canada's former ambassador to the United Nations and now executive vice-president at the investment group CDPQ Global.

Trump strongly favoured to win GOP nomination

Joe Biden, the incumbent president, is expected to face former president Donald Trump in November's election. Trump is the overwhelming favourite to win the Republican party's nomination — and could strengthen his hold on the nomination with a win in the New Hampshire state primary on Tuesday night. 

The "engagement strategy" announced by Trudeau on Tuesday resembles the diplomatic effort undertaken by the Liberal government in the wake of Trump's election in 2016.

Trump brings a 'certain amount of unpredictability,' Trudeau says

Duration 0:45

Hillman argued that Canada must advocate for its interests regardless of who occupies the White House and that it's important to "focus on the issues."

"I find that at the local level, Republican or Democrat, people care about jobs, security, prosperity, clean water, energy security, energy affordability — those aren't really partisan issues," she said. "I think approaching it in that way is essential for Canada. Because that's what matters to us and we need to meet them on the issues, not on the politics, which are their own."

But Thursday also brought a reminder of the unwanted attention that Canada sometimes received during Trump's time as president.

While campaigning in New Hampshire, Trump repeated his complaints about irregular immigration and security along the U.S. southern border. But he also agreed with a reporter who asked about the northern border — a concern that has popped up during the Republican primaries.

"You have to watch both borders," Trump said. "And you have to watch fly-ins, you have to watch everything.  But the southern border is like nobody's ever seen. But the northern border is bad too. It's getting bad."

What next?

The tangible effects of Trump's trade policies remain in dispute.

Several studies say his tariffs had a minimal positive impact on U.S. jobs, and a minimal harmful impact on the economy and inflation.

One trade economist and historian says Trump's policies shifted some production from China, primarily to Vietnam and Mexico; meanwhile, China bought more food from Brazil.

"In the political debate, both the benefits and the costs [of tariffs] tend to get exaggerated," said Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College.

But what Trump is proposing now is bigger than his first-term tariffs, which the Congressional Budget Office said shaved 0.3 per cent off the U.S. economy.

Trump also wants Congress to pass a law that would allow reciprocal tariffs — massive duties on countries with high tariffs, like India and China.

Trump touts his tariffs on washing machines at an Ohio Whirlpool plant in 2020. A study by economists at the U.S. Federal Reserve says those tariffs created 1,800 jobs, but raised prices on washing machines by about $90. It's an example of how tariffs had small effects, both positive and negative. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)

Irwin says the real risk is that in the long term, Trump's policies could trigger a domino effect, toppling the rules-based trading system, making commerce more political and less predictable and leading to tit-for-tat retaliation. He says countries that rely most heavily on the U.S. for trade are the most vulnerable. 

"You're right to be worried in Canada." 

Benoit takes the opposite view. If Trump managed to enact his entire agenda, with the biggest tariffs on Asia, he says Canada would enjoy a renaissance in manufacturing.

Instead of reflexively opposing some of these policies, he says Canada should offer to team up with Trump to impose similar tariffs against China. 

"Canada should say: 'We're with you. We're walking shoulder to shoulder with you,'" Benoit said.