Meanwhile, the mayor of Saint John says she hopes any potential new owner will be "good corporate citizens as well and continue the philanthropic path we have come to expect."

Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, and Mayor Donna Reardon were reacting to the news this week about leadership changes at Irving Oil.

Arthur Irving, who was chair of the board of directors and responsible for Irving Oil's "vision," is now listed on the company's website as the chair emeritus, who "continues to maintain a respected advisory role for the board."

His daughter, Sarah Irving, who was executive vice-president and widely seen as the 93-year-old's heir apparent, is no longer part of the leadership team, according to the company's website.

The changes follow Irving Oil's announcement in June of an internal strategic review that could result in "a new ownership structure, a full or partial sale, or a change in the portfolio of [the company's] assets" and how it operate them.

Company spokesperson Katherine d'Entremont has not responded to requests from CBC News for comments on the changes. 

'Unsettling'

It's "a little unsettling to see the leadership changing at Irving Oil," De Haan said. 

The company, founded in 1924 by Arthur's father, K.C. Irving, operates Canada's largest refinery in Saint John, which is "one of the most critical on the eastern seaboard," he said.

It processes about 320,000 barrels a day, producing gasoline, diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, propane and asphalt. And De Haan estimated it exports as much as three-quarters of its refined products to the United States.

"Much of the northeastern markets rely on this refinery for diesel, for heating oil," he said.

If Irving Oil does decide to put the refinery on the market, its "versatility" and ability to export to the global market, including the U.S., Europe and Asia, would make it more valuable, said De Haan.

"I would think a private company would be interested in this"— either a major oil refinery company, another major oil company, or even some smaller firms, which have shown interest in buying refineries in recent years, he said, pointing to PBF Energy in the United States as an example.

It could also be a public company, and "it wouldn't be impossible that there could be also some state-owned operations that could be interested in this," such as governments in the Middle East, for example.

"A lot of oil-producing nations are looking for homes into markets to sell their oil."

Irving Oil also owns Ireland's only refinery, Whitegate, which processes up to 75,000 barrels a day, and "more than 900 fuelling locations and a network of distribution terminals spanning Eastern Canada and New England," according to its website.

Environmental requirements could decrease value

More stringent federal environmental regulations, however, "could be a problem," said De Haan.

There are clean fuel regulations, designed to lower the carbon intensity of fuel suppliers — the amount of carbon dioxide they emit per unit of product — by 15 per cent by 2030. There is also the federal carbon tax, designed to nudge consumers toward other options, such as electric cars or public transit.

 Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the push toward electric vehicles in both Canada and the United States could affect the value of the Saint John refinery in a potential sale. (CBC)

Although De Haan contends Irving Oil has done "a tremendous job environmentally improving," this "certainly does diminish the value."

The Saint John refinery is New Brunswick's largest greenhouse gas emitter.

In addition, refinery sales have been "less liquid than they were decades ago, and so there may be a limited amount of potential buyers suited," said De Haan.

In fact, some refineries for sale in the U.S. have not even found buyers, he said.

"So it's a very difficult market right now."

Mayor fears loss of community involvement

For Saint John's mayor, the idea that the refinery could be sold to a "huge conglomerate" raises concerns.

Irving Oil has been "an integral partner in SJ in supporting the community," Reardon said in a written statement.

"Their personal interest in SJ is driven by the fact they are local. They live and work in the city — they are not absentee landlords.

"This bond with SJ is demonstrated in their community involvement and the many partnerships over the years."

She pointed to the Irving Oil Field House, the YMCA of Greater Saint John and the Imperial Theatre's Irving Oil Auditorium as examples that help make the city "livable, vibrant, attractive to young people and families and can drive growth."

Saint John Mayor Donna Reardon said even refinery shutdowns for maintenance generate a lot of spinoffs for local businesses by bringing in many outside workers. (Hadeel Ibrahim/C

A new owner would also have its own headquarters, which would likely mean the loss of local executive positions and the viability of Irving Oil's "legacy build" headquarters uptown, said Reardon.

Although she suspects the refinery would continue to operate in Saint John, she note that when shipbuilding moved to Halifax, many young people "followed the work," and the city's birth rate "dropped significantly."

"We don't want to lose our young people."

Irving Oil is one of New Brunswick's largest employers, with about 4,000 employees.

Irving, 93, who was chair of the Saint John-based board of directors, is now listed as chairman emeritus, while Sarah Irving, who was executive vice-president and widely seen as his heir apparent, is no longer listed.

Company spokesperson Katherine d'Entremont did not respond to requests by email and phone on Tuesday and Wednesday for comments.

The leadership changes come in the midst of a strategic review that's evaluating "a series of options" related to the company's future, including "a full or partial sale."

"No decisions have been made about where this strategic review may lead," Arthur Irving, Sarah Irving and Irving Oil president Ian Whitcomb, said in a statement last June, when the strategic review was announced.

Sarah Irving, the former executive vice-president of Irving Oil, is pictured here at Port Days in 2017, when she told attendees her grandfather 'had a vision' for the company when he started it, and all he hoped it would be. 'He was thinking big, but his roots and his team would always be right here at home,' she said. (CBC)

"Considerations will be given to a new ownership structure, a full or partial sale, or a change in the portfolio of our assets and how we operate them," they said.

With 4,000 employees, the privately held company is one of the most powerful in the province.

'Transition time'

Premier Blaine Higgs, a former Irving Oil executive, who worked for the company for more than 30 years, told CBC Wednesday he is surprised and saddened by news of the leadership changes.

"I think [it] shows it's a transition time for the business," he said.

"I guess they're making big decisions about their future."

In June, Higgs suggested that the federal carbon tax and clean fuel standards were one of the reasons the family was looking at selling. On Wednesday, he pointed again to the federal climate policies, saying they "have obviously changed the direction in many ways."

Irving Oil's Saint John refinery is Canada’s largest, processing about 320,000 barrels a day and producing gasoline, diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, propane and asphalt. (Mike Heenan/CBC)

Founded in 1924 by Arthur's father, K.C. Irving, Irving Oil operates Canada's largest refinery in Saint John, which processes about 320,000 barrels a day and is New Brunswick's largest greenhouse gas emitter.

The company has "more than 900 fuelling locations and a network of distribution terminals spanning Eastern Canada and New England," according to its website.

It also operates Ireland's only refinery, Whitegate, which processes up to 75,000 barrels a day.

Forbes Magazine listed Arthur Irving as the eighth richest person in Canada in 2023, with an estimated net worth of $5.7 billion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index lists him as sixth richest, with a total net worth of about $8 billion.

Could be a 'precursor'

Industry consultant Andrew Lipow said the leadership changes could signal more changes to come.

"It could be a precursor that there's going to be a potential change in the ownership of the company, or that … the board of directors has decided it's time for new leadership to be installed, and that's people who are outside of the original founding family, said Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, based in Houston.

"I think that the family may have decided that they'd just simply like to cash out of that investment," he said, also citing the more stringent federal environmental regulations, aimed at lowering Canada's greenhouse gas emissions over time.

"Irving may be looking at making a significant investment in order to comply with those regulations, and the existing ownership may have decided that perhaps the sale to a third party with additional financing being available is the way to go to maintain and enhance their business over the next several decades."

The Saint John refinery is valued at about $2 billion.

It's difficult to predict who a potential buyer would be, said Lipow.

"It could be a Canadian oil producer. It could be private equity that decides to come in and make an investment. It could be another international oil major looking for a refining asset in which to monetize their oil production."

A potential sale would not result in a halting of the refinery's operations, according to Lipow. It is a "major supplier" of gasoline and diesel fuel into Eastern Canada as well as into New England, he said.

Any changes at Irving Oil, however, would be felt throughout the region, Lipow said.

That could include, for example, a rebranding of the gas stations located on "many corners," he said.

'Respected advisory role'

As the chairman emeritus of Irving Oil, Arthur Irving "continues to maintain a respected advisory role for the Board and its activities," the company's website says.

It previously said he was responsible as chairman "for establishing the vision for the company and providing overall guidance to [the] senior leadership team."

Sarah Irving was previously described as the executive vice-president, who "grew up in the family business, understanding well the importance of great employees and loyal customers in achieving success."

Sarah Irving isn't often heard from in public, but in a speech six years ago at Port Days, she spoke with pride about the company and its legacy.

"When my grandfather K.C. Irving founded Irving Oil in 1924, he had a vision for our company," she said.

"Here, in Saint John, he saw many opportunities of a place with unparalleled natural advantages. And together with his sons Jim, Arthur and Jack, and the many dedicated employees of Irving Oil, they would work hard to make this vision a reality, in building businesses that would span the globe, but always remain true to home."

The rest of the leadership team at Irving Oil remains unchanged, according to the website.