New Brunswick surplus hit $1 billion last year, new figures show
All-time record latest example of PC government underestimating black ink
New Brunswick's budget surplus exploded to more than $1 billion last year, even higher than the already massive figure put out by the Higgs government back in March.
Final audited financial statements for fiscal 2022-23, released Wednesday, show a surplus of $1.01 billion.
And with the province on track for another big surplus this year, Finance Minister Ernie Steeves is suggesting he'll unveil new "affordability measures" to help New Brunswickers in coming weeks — including possible tax cuts.
"It's good news. We just have to run it by cabinet," he said.
"We figure on using a number of different options as we have in the past, but yeah, I like tax cuts. I like to have that money in my pocket, rather than in the government's pockets, personally, and I'm sure everybody else does too."
A
graph from the report shows a widening gap each year between what the
government forecasts in its budget and what actually happens. (Budget report)
Tax cuts, or other spending to help New Brunswickers dealing with inflation, could even be announced before the next quarterly fiscal update in November, Steeves said — timing that lines up with a potential early election call.
Premier Blaine Higgs has refused to rule out triggering a campaign this fall, ahead of the scheduled October 2024 date.
Steeves told reporters he has no idea if that will happen, but pointed out the $1 billion surplus was not crafted for political gain.
"This was last year's numbers. It ended March 31. So we certainly weren't thinking about any election then," he said.
Steeves put last year's surplus figure at $862.2 million when he released his budget for the current year in March.
But he said in a statement Wednesday the government spent $112 million less than it expected and brought in $38 million more in revenue than expected at the time it put out the lower number.
Because the fiscal year ended March 31, the $1 billion can't be spent now.
But the Progressive Conservative government is already on track to exceed its surplus projection in the current 2023-24 year, too.
Steeves projected a $40.3 million surplus in his budget in March.
He warned at the time that "oddities" had contributed to the big surpluses of the previous year, and "you can't count on things staying status quo" this year.
But by August, figures showed the province was in fact on track for a $199.6 million surplus by March 2024.
The 2021-22 surplus was $777.3 million, itself an all-time record at the time.
The three years of underestimated surpluses are a point of pride for the Higgs government, which cites them as proof of sound fiscal management.
But they have become a potential political liability as Premier Blaine Higgs hints at a snap election this fall.
René
Legacy, the Liberal MLA for Bathurst West-Beresford, says there's a lot
of room to pay down debt while cutting taxes and spending more on
surpluses. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Critics continue to demand the PCs spent some of that flood of revenue in areas like housing, health care and inflation relief.
"These are huge amounts and they should allow them to start thinking about getting some program money out to the ones who are asking for it," said Liberal finance critic René Legacy.
The Bathurst-area MLA said his party isn't advocating returning to deficits but with a huge surplus, "there's a lot of room" to pay down debt while cutting taxes and spending more on surpluses.
"We're not seeing that impetus to get that money out there and start acting like a province that is growing. … It's time to act with a little bit of confidence and get the help out there that I think some areas desperately need."
Green Party Leader David Coon says there is a 'crying need' for investment in public services. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Green leader David Coon said the government shouldn't be contemplating any tax cuts with so much need for spending.
He said one of his constituents recently spent 19 hours in a hospital emergency department waiting to get care.
"There is a crying need for investment in our public services across the board," Coon said.
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"I'm actually proud of our budgets that we did. So I hope as a party we can move on. There's some reconciliation that needs to be done. We have to talk as a group," he said.
He told reporters that if the premier visits Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy and asked her to dissolve the house, she should instead ask the PC caucus if another of its members could take over and lead a government with majority support in the legislature.
Cardy acknowledged that move, while possible in the parliamentary system, is rare but not out of the question.
"The lieutenant-governor's job is to ascertain whether there's anybody else who can command the majority of the house," he said.
"I'm saying there are very clearly people who could do that job. The premier has shown today he can't even command his own caucus, his own cabinet."
"With the encouragement of many colleagues and people from across this province, I am confirming my intention to remain as leader and to reoffer in the next provincial election."
Higgs cited the province's economic and population growth during his time as premier and said it was important to "continue to build on this momentum."
The next election is scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024, though Higgs's statement didn't mention that date and did not rule out an earlier campaign.
He told reporters that a recent rebellion by six MLAs in his caucus "remains a big concern." Those members will be in a position to delay legislation when the legislature reconvenes in October.
Reply to David Amos
Six ministers and two backbench MLAs refused to attend the morning sitting of the legislature "as a way to express our extreme disappointment in a lack of process and transparency," they said in a statement.
Well you can say what you want about Ernie, but he still has the jokes.
He warned at the time that "oddities" had contributed to the big surpluses of the previous year, and "you can't count on things staying status quo" this year.