New Brunswick is facing its first minority government in almost 100 years, coupled with a ripple of populism that will bring two small parties to greater prominence in the legislature.
This is unknown territory for voters and politicians alike.

Enter Bob Rae, who knows a thing or two about starting, and finishing, minority governments.
In 1979, it was Rae's motion as an NDP member of Parliament that precipitated the end of Joe Clark's minority government.

As leader of Ontario's NDP during the minority election of 1985, Rae signed an accord with the second-place David Peterson Liberals that toppled Frank Miller's Progressive Conservatives, ending a 42-year-old Tory dynasty and putting the Liberals in power.

In minority governments you think you've got a lot of leverage if you're the balance of power, as they say, but you've got to always be careful not to overplay your hand.- Bob Rae, former federal cabinet minister

Then, as a federal Liberal MP and interim party leader, Rae had a front-row seat to Stephen Harper's two consecutive minority governments. The lesson from all those political nail-biters?

"It's all about the numbers," the now-retired politician said during a brief stop in Fredericton to deliver a university lecture.

"It's not about the theories about what you can do, but can you actually do it?"

Despite Blaine Higgs's claim that he should have the first chance to form government because he won the most seats, Rae said Premier Brian Gallant has every right to try to govern if he can.

"The question is will he be able to pull it off," Rae said.

"Looking at these numbers, it's hard for me to see how that lasts for four years, unless something dramatic happens."

In New Brunswick, the past few days have been all about the political drama as parties scramble to keep their footing following an election with no clear victor.

On Monday, the PCs won 22 seats, the Liberals 21, and the Green and People's Alliance parties each won three.

Gallant has made clear he intends to continue governing, either on his own or in co-operation with a third party, and he hopes to work something out with the Greens.

"Our caucus believes that there are a lot of commonalities that we could work on to ensure there's a progressive government," Gallant said.

Both the Greens and the People's Alliance could wield significant power over the future of New Brunswick's government. Neither the Liberals nor the PCs can govern without the support of one or both of the third parties.
How those parties exercise that power also has significant implications for their future political success. Rae warned third parties that forming a coalition with larger partners can backfire if they try to overreach.

"In minority governments you think you've got a lot of leverage if you're the balance of power, as they say, but you've got to always be careful not to overplay your hand," he said.

"The reality is that the Liberal Party got 37 per cent and the Conservative Party got 32 per cent, and that's a lot more than the other parties got."

Rae was in Fredericton to give the annual Bernie Vigod lecture on human rights at St. Thomas University. His subject, human rights in the age of populism, also had resonance in New Brunswick's election.

Populism, according to Oxford, is a political movement that "strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups."

Both the People's Alliance and the Green Party share some populist roots, even if they do occupy opposite ends of the political spectrum.

We have a premier in Ontario who said he won a massive majority. Well he won 40 per cent of the vote. Mr. Trump didn't have a majority, he lost the popular vote. - Bob Rae

Rae cautions that populism may have legitimate roots, but that it is vulnerable to chauvinism and manipulation by demagogues, particularly the Donald Trump brand of "me first" politics that most people associate with populism today.

Kris Austin's "common sense" approach appeals to the concerns of many ordinary New Brunswickers, but his linguistic policy and opposition to duality have francophones worried about their constitutional language rights.

Green Party Leader David Coon has made it clear his party is opposed to the Alliance's language policies. At the same time, Coon has said his economic policy would shift investment inward to focus on businesses and co-operatives at the community level, instead of courting larger corporations.

He said the Green Party would support "co-operatives at the community level that are community-based, locally owned and particularly that are focused on meeting the needs of New Brunswickers to help reduce our imports, and that will keep more money in our economy, creating more jobs here and more opportunity here."

Coon's vision of a self-sufficient New Brunswick demonstrates populist tendencies when it comes to the economy, and his party's grassroots environmental movement does set itself against the political status quo of Liberals and PCs — take the party's popular bumper sticker slogan "David Coon works for me," for example.

"Populism, if you're not careful, can tip over the edge and say this is about the majority getting whatever the hell they want," Rae said. "And then you say, 'Wait a minute, who decides what the majority want?' We have a premier in Ontario who said he won a massive majority. Well he won 40 per cent of the vote. Mr. Trump didn't have a majority, he lost the popular vote."

Rae said human rights are about protecting minorities, which creates a conflict with populism.
"That's not always popular for a court to say, 'We're going to protect that minority and we're going to do what needs to be done to protect it.'

"In the case of New Brunswick, it's the language issue, it's a classic. We have laws that protect the linguistic minority, and if you just throw that overboard you're into pretty dangerous territory."

Kent North's newest MLA, Kevin Arseneau, says he will represent the people of the riding before he represents Green Party interests.

"I have a problem with this tight, tight party line, where you have to — and I've heard horror stories from other politicians of how they use the party line to intimidate MLAs into taking certain decisions."

If I represent these people, I've got to feel, understand, experience what they're living. - Kevin Arseneau, elected in Kent North

Arseneau said that's not the type of politics he wants to be a part of, and suggested he ran because the Green Party agrees.

"I really like the fact that, you know, I get to represent the people of Kent North before putting the interests of the party first."

Arseneau won the formerly Liberal seat with 4,056 votes, one of three wins for the Greens on Monday.

"During my campaign I wanted to understand — I have to represent some fishermen — if I wanted to understand what they were doing, I wanted to go on a boat for a whole day."

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Even though people cautioned him from spending too much time doing that, Arseneau said he felt he had to.

"If I represent these people, I've got to feel, understand, experience what they're living."

Arseneau described this as the on-the-ground way he plans to do his job as MLA.

Change wanted

As he campaigned door-to-door, Areseneau said, he was told over and over that people wanted a change.

"They told me they were fed up with this blue-red kind of always fighting together. And we see that they're continuing to do it."

He was referring to Premier Brian Gallant and Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs each expecting to govern after a close election left the PCs with one more seat than the Liberals.

"Both of them are wanting to grasp on power instead of just working together for the better of everyone."

Arseneau said he believes this is why so many voters were fed up.

I told them basically, we have met already with the Green caucus and we're converging today to meet in person and having a long work meeting about this. - Kevin Arseneau

"This is what I was hearing at the door, and I was giving them a message a lot more positive."
The Green Party and People's Alliance will each have three seats in the legislature, which could give the Greens or the Alliance some unexpected influence.

Arseneau said his campaign included supporting all cultures and languages, and he wants to continue working the same way, rather than being like the People's Alliance, which he said is causing division.
"In the riding, we've stopped shale gas by coming all together," he said.

No rush for alliance

Arseneau said the Green Party is in no rush to form alliances with any other political party, he said.
Representatives of other parties have been in touch and want an answer right away, but the party is taking its time replying.
"We're going to take a little bit of time and talk about it and see what the different options are and try to chose the best option for my riding and for the people of New Brunswick as a whole."

Arseneau confirmed he was himself approached by other parties about possibly sitting down and talking with them or working with with them but said there were no invitations to cross the floor.

"I told them basically, we have met already with the Green caucus and we're converging today to meet in person and having a long work meeting about this."

When asked who the Green Party would likely form an alliance with, the new MLA said he wasn't sure, since the party has a trust and confidence problem with the Liberals and an ideology​ problem with the PCs.