The New Brunswick chapter of Canadian Parents for French has released a poll by the research firm Leger suggesting the Opposition Liberals now have a big lead over the PCs in voting intentions.

It also suggests the plan to replace immersion is deeply unpopular. 

"It tells me that the government of New Brunswick is not in sync with the people of New Brunswick," said the chapter's executive director Chris Collins. 

According to the poll, taken in December, 72 per cent of respondents said their opinion of Premier Blaine Higgs had deteriorated "over the past few months."

 Chris Collins of the New Brunswick chapter of Canadian Parents for French, said he hopes the poll results will persuade some PC members of the legislature to push back against the replacement of immersion. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

The same percentage told the pollster they agreed it is "important for anglophone parents in New Brunswick to have the opportunity to send their child(ren) to a French immersion school."

Asked which party they'd most likely vote for if an election were held now, 40 per cent of respondents said the Liberals compared to just 22 per cent for Higgs's PCs.

The Greens were at 15 per cent, the NDP at 12 and the People's Alliance at nine.

The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024. Higgs said in December he hasn't decided whether to lead the party into that campaign or retire. 

The government announced in December it will replace immersion starting next fall for students entering Grade 1 and kindergarten.

Those students will instead spend half their days in what the province called "exploratory learning" in French. That's more time than what non-immersion students get now but less time than the immersion program.

Collins said he hopes the poll results will persuade some PC members of the legislature to push back against the replacement of immersion. 

"I think it will change the minds of members of the legislative assembly who are on the precipice of losing their seats in areas like Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton," he said.

"I think there's going to be a lot of dissension in caucus when people are seeing those kinds of numbers on their premier, and they're thinking, 'How does this set me up for the next election in '24?"

On Monday night, Education Minister Bill Hogan took part in the first of several public meetings on the changes.

During a series of vetted questions and scripted answers, Hogan said it was still possible the new model could change.

"Let me be clear," he said. "There's still a chance for New Brunswickers to have their say."

In the Leger poll, 63 per cent of respondents said they were against "abolishing" French immersion.

In response to another question about the policy change, only 22 per cent of respondents agreed that immersion "must be abolished and a new French as a second language program should be implemented."

A far larger share, 55 per cent, agreed that "the current French immersion program should be maintained, but make it accessible to more students, even if they are not in immersion programs." 

The 18-point gap in voting intentions in favour of the Liberals over the PCs is a bigger lead than what the Liberals have enjoyed in recent surveys by Halifax-based Narrative Research.

The last Narrative poll from November 2022 had the Liberals ahead 39 to 30. 

Leger said it conducted its web-based survey of 500 New Brunswickers from Dec. 15 to 23, a period that included the announcement on replacing immersion.

Because the poll was done with an online panel and not a random sample, the firm said it was impossible to calculate a margin of error. But it said a poll that size using a random sample would be accurate to within 4.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The company said the results were weighted by gender, age, mother tongue, education, region and presence of children in a household to reflect New Brunswick's population.

In the first of several public consultation sessions about New Brunswick's new approach to teaching French to anglophone students, Education Minister Bill Hogan said Monday night that he's eager for parents to participate and share their thoughts. 

But he was called out by one participant who called the whole exercise a "con job." 

Through Twitter, someone named Chris asked, "How can you possibly call this a consultation when you have cancelled [French immersion] registration and announced the plan before you consult?"

Hogan announced the changes to the way French is taught last month. The changes mean more French for non-immersion students, but less than immersion students currently receive. 

Hogan assured people the goverment will listen to their concerns during consultations about French-language instruction in the province, and the current plan can still be changed. (Government of New Brunswick/YouTube)

Hogan said he appreciated the "candour" of questioner Chris during the livestream on the government's YouTube channel.

But he said the department has been consulting various groups and individuals over the past year.

"We've also benefited from the findings of the outstanding consultation work that was done through the Official Languages [Act] review and the report on second-language learning," Hogan said. "We used all this information to develop a proposal."

And Hogan promised that "changes are coming."

"Let me be clear," he said. "There's still a chance for New Brunswickers to have their say." 

Hogan reminded the audience about a number of public consultation sessions that will be held around the province, starting Tuesday:

• Jan. 17 at the Gowan Brae Golf Club in Bathurst.

• Jan. 19 at the Delta Beauséjour in Moncton.

• Jan. 24 at the Delta Saint John.

• Jan. 25 at the Delta Fredericton.

Each will be held from 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.

There will also be two virtual sessions — one on Jan. 31 and the other on Feb. 2.

And online survey will continue to be available until Feb. 3. As of Monday morning, Hogan said, the department had received 6,500 responses. 

Less French by middle school

With the new program, the percentage of instruction students will get in French will drop from 50 to 40 per cent when they reach grades 6 to 8 in middle school.

Under the existing immersion program, students receive 80 to 90 per cent of their instruction in French.

Students entering grades 2 to 12 in September who were already enrolled in French immersion can continue in that program through to high school graduation.

The changes will take place at the start of the 2023 school year, with final details of the plan to be announced this spring, following the public consultations.

Questions vetted in advance

The questions for last night's session with Hogan were submitted by people through social media and vetted by education officials in advance. Hogan's answers appeared to be scripted. 

One of the questions came from someone who identified themselves as a New Brunswick teacher and, according to the moderator Tiffany Baskin, "[seems] to be a French immersion teacher." 

The person wrote, "I don't want to teach oral French all day. I want to teach reading, writing, math, art, science, social studies and health. You will probably end up losing teachers with this new program."

In response, Hogan said there's been some confusion about "what an average day will look like." 

He said students need "reading and writing experiences" in order to develop language skills. 

"These skills will be developed through French-language arts and exploratory learning."

Students will be exposed to French in a variety of subjects "in fun and engaging ways," Hogan said. "This includes lots of play and learning activities."

Will all teachers have to be bilingual?

Another participant wanted to know who's going to teach all this in primary grades. She asked, "Are you now going to require all teachers to be bilingual?"

Hogan said no.

"We will continue to need English-speaking teachers for the portion of the day that students are learning in English."

But he acknowledged that "there will continue to be challenges when it comes to recruitment, retention and training of French second-language teachers."

He said more "professional development opportunities" will be created for existing teachers and the department will be "ramping up" recruitment efforts.

• N.B. radically rethinks French second-language education 
• No French immersion could lead to weaker bilingual services, teacher association says

He said the department is already "working on an aggressive recruitment campaign over the past few months."

Officials are also trying to remove barriers for international recruitment, he said.

Hogan was also asked whether the department consulted the teachers' association, and he said the group had been involved since "early on in discussions."

"We've always asked them to be part of the process because we know how valuable their input is — particularly when it comes to issues of staffing. We very much want teachers and the teachers' associations to come to the table and to talk to us about what we're proposing."

Those with unique needs

Several parent expressed concerns about children who are already struggling with some basic concepts in English and worry the new model will just make it more difficult for them to succeed. 

Hogan acknowledged there is "plenty of data that shows children with additional social, emotional or behavioural needs are currently disproportionately placed into the English prime program."

"This has been creating imbalances between classrooms, behavioural challenges and increased pressure regarding inclusive education practices for years."

Hogan said students who currently have personalized learning plans, known as PLPs, will continue to do so. 

He was also asked what models were used to develop the proposed program. 

Program tried out in 1990s

One of the prototypes was a program that was used in the anglophone north school district in the late 1990s and early 2000s that used a 50-50 split between English and French, Hogan said. The Grade 12 oral proficiency assessment results were among the highest in the province, with 97 per cent reaching the conversational level.

Hogan said students "even outperformed last year's graduating cohort of early immersion students."

At least two participants worried about how newcomers, especially those who speak anything other than French or English will be integrated into the new program. 

Hogan said individual plans will be created "that address the specific needs of students," but he didn't offer any specifics. 

Former Speaker Chris Collins can't sue the New Brunswick Legislature over how it handled harassment allegations against him, a Court of Queen's Bench justice has ruled.

Justice Terrence Morrison says the principle of parliamentary privilege, which has protected the independence of parliaments from other branches of government for centuries, applies in the Collins case.

"I can envision no greater a threat to the autonomy of the Legislative Assembly than outside interference into the discipline, sanction, and/or removal of one of its members," Morrison writes in the 25-page ruling.

Collins is also suing the provincial government and former premier Brian Gallant. The decision doesn't affect those parts of the lawsuit, which can continue.

The case centres on harassment allegations against Collins by a former employee that became public in April 2018.

A subsequent report by an independent investigator, commissioned by the legislature, found the complaint was "founded in part," and Collins later offered what he called a "complete and unreserved apology" in front of reporters.

But last April, Collins filed a lawsuit, saying Gallant and the legislature abused their authority and breached his privacy and his employment contract, effectively ending his political career. Collins ran for re-election as an independent in 2018 and lost.

He claims Gallant's office revived an old allegation against him and pushed the legislature to act on it to punish Collins for rejecting a Liberal motion attacking then-Opposition leader Blaine Higgs.

The suit against Gallant and the provincial government can still go ahead. (CBC)

Morrison's ruling cites a 2020 Ontario Court of Appeal ruling on Senator Mike Duffy's lawsuit against the Senate over its handling of his expense claims. The court ruled that the Senate's proceedings were privileged and it could not be sued.

The Supreme Court of Canada later refused to hear Duffy's appeal of that decision.

Morrison says in his decision that the facts in the Duffy case are "strikingly similar" to the Collins case. 

Duffy argued that interference by then-prime minister Stephen Harper's office in the Senate investigation of his expenses meant that parliamentary privilege no longer applied, an argument the Ontario Court of Appeal rejected.

Collins made a similar argument about Gallant's alleged role in influencing the actions of the clerk and deputy clerk of the legislature, as well as the legislative administration committee which oversees discipline cases.

The legislature's lawyer Jamie Eddy persuaded him that Collins's allegations "fall within the scope of the established parliamentary privilege over discipline of its members, authority over its internal affairs and authority over its internal parliamentary procedure," Morrison wrote.

Collins was ordered to pay $2,000 for the legislature's legal costs. 

Gallant has disputed Collins's claims in his own statement of defence. 

There is no date yet for when the remaining part of the lawsuit would go to trial.