In a historic victory Saturday, Susan Holt has been chosen as the new leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Party.

She is the first woman to win the party's leadership in the province. 

She won on the third ballot with 51.67 per cent of the vote. Former Liberal MP T.J. Harvey was the runner-up.

Holt will lead the party into the next election against the governing Progressive Conservatives now led by Premier Blaine Higgs.

Holt is shown after her victory on Saturday. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

The former business leader and one-time adviser to former premier Brian Gallant pitched herself as someone who would bring a fresh approach to politics, a theme she repeated in her victory speech.

"The people of New Brunswick have told us they are tired of politics as usual. They are tired of the conflict and the fighting. They are tired of partisanship," she said.

"They want to see something different. We can be the party that leads a change for a new politics in New Brunswick that is transparent, authentic, empathetic and collaborative." 

In part, Holt's victory was based on being the second or third choice of two of the other candidates.

The party used preferential balloting, meaning members voting over the past week ranked their first, second, third and fourth choices for leader. In order for a winner to be decided, a candidate needed 50 per cent of the vote.

Former cabinet minister Donald Arseneault and current MLA Robert Gauvin were the others on the ballot.

During the first round of balloting, Harvey had 33.9 per cent, Holt had 32.12 per cent, Gauvin had 19.76 per cent and Arseneault had 14.22 per cent of the points awarded in the party's weighted voting system.

Arseneault was dropped off the ballot and the votes were redistributed.

Harvey polled 39.58 per cent in the second vote while Holt had 36.76 per cent and Gauvin had 23.67 per cent. Gauvin fell off the ballot.

Holt said she had "a lot of conversations" with people who chose Gauvin or Arseneault first, but who were also interested in her as a potential leader.

Harvey non-commital

Harvey said despite his defeat, he was optimistic about Liberal prospects, though he wouldn't commit to being a candidate in the next election.

"Certainly it's not the outcome that we had hoped for," he said. "At the end of the day, we're all still a family and I think it's been really healthy for the party."

Harvey said his support over the first two rounds was around where his team thought it would be, but with two candidates eliminated at that point "it's really difficult to estimate where you think third-ballot support could go." 

University of Moncton political scientist Roger Ouellette said Holt's victory was a watershed moment for the Liberals.

Saint John MLA Shirley Dysart briefly led the party as interim leader in 1985 but Saturday's result is the first time party members have elected a woman to the role.

"Maybe we'll see after the next general election that we'll have another first with a female as premier," Ouellette said.

Members have been voting remotely all week, but several hundred Liberals are expected to gather at an in-person convention in Fredericton, where the four candidates will speak and the results will be announced.

Members can also vote at the convention. Balloting will end at 2 p.m. and the party will announce first-round results around 2:15 p.m. 

Former cabinet minister Donald Arseneault, current MLA Robert Gauvin, former MP T.J. Harvey and former adviser to the Brian Gallant government Susan Holt are on the ballot.

The winner will lead the party into the next election against the governing Progressive Conservatives now led by Premier Blaine Higgs.

Leadership candidate Donald Arseneault used to be the MLA for Campbellton—Dalhousie. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

It's a decisive moment for the Liberals, who have failed to win a majority of seats for two consecutive elections.

And the race may produce some surprises.

The Liberals are using a preferential ballot system, which means members voting over the past week have ranked their first, second, third and fourth choices for leader.

If no one wins a majority on the first count, the last-place candidate is dropped, and the second choices on their ballots are redistributed to the other candidates.

MLA Keith Chiasson, who is supporting T.J. Harvey, says members' second choices for leader are also important. (Jacques Poitras/CBC News)

If that second tally still doesn't produce a winner with more than 50 per cent support, the candidate in third place is dropped and their second-choice votes are assigned to the remaining two candidates.

The system has existed since the 2012 Liberal leadership race, but this is the first time it is expected to be a factor in the outcome. 

It has prompted the four campaigns to hustle to be the second or even third choice of many party members.

This week, volunteers have been contacting their candidates' supporters to remind them to vote. But they've also been contacting people who said their candidate was their second choice. 

MLA Robert Gauvin, a former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister, is one of four candidates for the Liberal leadership. (Héloïse Bargain/Radio-Canada)

"Their vote is also very important," said Liberal MLA Keith Chiasson, a Harvey supporter.

The Tracadie MLA said the system has led to some confusion among some members.

"Obviously, we've been courting them from the beginning to encourage one candidate, and now all of a sudden they're faced with the fact they've got to rank them from one to four, so we've had some explaining to do."

Adding to the complexity, the Liberals are also using weighted voting, which is designed to give all 49 ridings in the province an equal say, regardless of the number of party members registered there.

Each riding is worth 100 points, so 4,900 points are up for grabs. The winner needs 2,451.

  T.J. Harvey, the MP for Tobique—Mactaquac from 2015 to 2019, is running for leader of the provinial party. (Submitted)

It means ridings with fewer Liberal members are more lucrative for candidates on a per-voter basis.

For example, there are only 75 party members signed up to vote in Riverview, so a candidate that wins the support of 60 of them would get 80 points.

But 60 Liberal votes in Caraquet would yield only 13 points, because the party has 446 party members there. In that riding, a candidate would need 357 votes to get 80 points.

Chiasson said the merit of the system is that the candidates are forced to seek support across the province, not just in party strongholds where there are large numbers of Liberals.

Susan Holt, who was an adviser to former premier Brian Gallant, now wants to be leader herself. (Jacques Poitras/ CBC)

"Instead of focusing on one region of the province and getting as many Liberals in that region to vote, I think it encourages them to tour the province and engage with as many Liberals as they can," he said.

"It's a good preparation for the next step, which is the general election. If you've toured the province, if you engage with Liberals from up north, down south, east and west, it's kind of like a foundation for the next process or the next step, which is the general election."

The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 21, 2024.

"I think I got the political experience to rejuvenate the party, and that's going to be one of the main focus for the next two years, to really work on the party and make sure that we're election ready for 2024," said Arseneault. 

"The governance experience for me is really important because we are facing big issues as a province and people are expecting … governments of the day to be able to resolve those issues."

Experience and baggage

Arseneault has more electoral and public service experience than his rivals, surpassing them by at least a decade.

But he also comes into the race with more political baggage.

He was a minister in the Graham government when the province struck a controversial deal to sell N.B. Power to Hydro-Quebec.

Arseneault was a cabinet minister when the plan to sell N.B. Power to Hydro-Quebec was announced. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)

The deal later fell through, and contributed to the defeat of the one-term Graham government — at the time, the first one-term government in the province since Confederation.

But Arseneault said he is fine with defending the record of previous governments he's served in.

"I don't look at it as baggage," said Arseneault. 

"When I was in opposition or within government, I was one of those who stood up when others didn't stand up."

Lobbying job

Arseneault also faced controversy in his own career.

In 2017 he took a second job as a government relations manager for Canada's Building Trades Unions, which would've involved lobbying governments, while he was still an MLA.

The province's integrity commissioner said there was nothing in the rules forbidding an MLA from taking a second job of that nature, but Arseneault resigned as MLA that November.

Donald Arseneault speaks to reporters after announcing he was resigning as the MLA for Campbellton-Dalhousie. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

While the move was controversial at the time, he said it hasn't been an issue on the campaign trail.

"I wanted to experience Ottawa, the federal government scene," said Arseneault. 

"After two years while in Ottawa, I realized that, you know, I missed provincial politics."

Health care top concern

Like all the other candidates vying for the leadership, Arseneault cites health care as a major issue for New Brunswick.

He said recruitment and retention of doctors and nurses is a major issue for the province, and said the government needs to look beyond the regional health authorities for solutions.

"Municipalities want to participate as well, community chambers of commerce want to participate as well," said Arseneault. 

"Let's get them around the table and develop an action plan, a very aggressive action plan, in order to address that because that's where, really, the focus needs to be."

Arseneault says it’s important to get more voices around the table when it comes to fixing health care. (Rocketclips Inc./Shutterstock)

Arseneault says the province needs to be aggressive and creative when it comes to recruiting more doctors and nurses, two things he said he's not seeing from the current government.

But he also said the province needs to grow its economy to have more money to spend on attracting medical professionals.

• Job controversy pushes Donald Arseneault to resign from legislature 

He said the economy has been a weak spot for the party with voters, something he wants to change.

"We need to be fiscally responsible," said Arseneault. 

"If we're going to get credibility with the public, especially in areas where we've been weak politically over the last 10 years, I think that's one area that we need to focus on."

Arseneault says his time in office, including two stints in cabinet under two Liberal premiers, will be an advantage against other, less experienced leadership candidates.

"I understand that some people look at me like I've been around for a bit," he said. "But I want to take that as a positive, because I know how to get things done. I've done it and I've got good experience with it."

Arseneault said however he's surrounding himself with "fresh faces," because there are many New Brunswickers "who've never really got involved but who've got great ideas. They don't know how to maybe bring it to the next step. I can make that happen."

Former federal Liberal MP T.J. Harvey is the only other officially declared candidate in the race so far. Harvey served one term as MP for Tobique-Mactaquac before leaving politics.

Campaign marks return to politics after controversy

Arseneault's entry represents a comeback four years after he quit the legislature during a conflict-of-interest controversy. 

He resigned a year ahead of his planned retirement after it was revealed he was taking a part-time job as a trade union lobbyist in Ottawa while planning to continue as an MLA.

That didn't violate New Brunswick's lax conflict-of-interest rules, but the opposition argued it created a "perceived" conflict. Then-PC Opposition leader Blaine Higgs called the affair "an example of politics at its worst."

Premier Brian Gallant eventually said the same thing and insisted Arseneault either quit the new job or resign his seat.

Donald Arseneault speaks to reporters in 2017 after announcing he was resigning as the MLA for Campbellton-Dalhousie as a result of a conflict of interest controversy. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

Arseneault pointed out Thursday that the conflict of interest commissioner at the time "gave me the okay and that was made public as well."

"Unfortunately in politics, politics is perception. They made an issue in the legislature and I decided at that time I didn't want to take attention away from the real issues we had to deal with at the time." 

History in N.B. politics

Arseneault was first elected in 2003 and quickly became known for his combative and partisan style.

He was part of the Shawn Graham cabinet that tried to sell NB Power to Hydro-Quebec and that awarded $50 million in loans and loan guarantees to the Atcon group of companies.

In 2015, back in power under Gallant, Arseneault resisted calls for more funding for a new investigation by Auditor-General Kim MacPherson into Atcon.

"She can do more work with the resources she has within her budget," he said.

Competition against former federal Liberal M.P.

Harvey, who announced his leadership campaign in June, called Arseneault a friend and welcomed him into the race.

But he contrasted his own private sector experience and a single four-year term in the House of Commons with Arseneault's long tenure in the legislature.

  T.J. Harvey was the M.P. for Tobique-Mactaquac from 2015 to 2019. (Submitted)

"Everybody brings different qualities to a leadership race and certainly my qualities are informed by my life experiences and my work in the private sector, in agriculture, in transportation and in processing and manufacturing," he said.

"Don's absolutely right, he was a sitting MLA and minister under Shawn Graham's government and Brian Gallant's government. He brings a lot of experiences based on his time in office and I think his record speaks for itself."

Harvey declined to characterize that record, but said his own approach in government would be more inclusive than Graham and Gallant had been as premiers.

During the 2017 controversy over his part-time lobbying job, he revealed he'd held a paying position with the same union from 2010 to 2014, when he was an opposition MLA.

That income was not listed on Arseneault's public conflict declaration forms during that period. Members list other employment under a section called "financial and business interests."

Arseneault helped run the 2020 provincial Liberal campaign that saw Premier Blaine Higgs turn his minority government into a majority in the legislature.

Looking to better provincial government

He said Thursday voters were happy with how Higgs and Dr. Jennifer Russell had managed the COVID-19 pandemic and "they didn't want to take a chance to change government at that time. We felt that."

Now he says Higgs has divided the province, alienating Indigenous people and front-line health-care workers. He accused the premier of using federal transfers meant for COVID relief and health care to pad his budget surpluses.

"Here's a man and a government that has a calculator where their heart should be," he said.

Arseneault said he'll focus on "people, families and the economy" if he becomes premier and said affordable housing, soaring property assessments and other cost-of-living issues will be part of his agenda.

The provincial Liberals haven't set a date yet for the leadership vote. 

- J.P. Lewis

But the new interim leader of the New Brunswick NDP, Alex White, said it's unlikely Holt would really break the mould.

"Regardless of the leadership of the Liberal Party … the policies have very rarely changed or brought improvements to the lives of everyday Canadians," White said.

Lewis called Holt's message "pretty abstract, and we know she's definitely not the first politician to say they're going to bring a fresh approach to politics." 

Nason said she doesn't personally know people who are as excited as she is by Holt, though she sees a lot of them online, especially on Twitter. 

"Maybe it's just because she's been smart enough to have a heavy social media presence," Nason said.

"It's worked before. Social media stardom has taken politicians where they wanted to go. Maybe that's all it is. But it feels different. … It feels like she is what I want a politician to be." 

Lewis said the wavelet of enthusiasm for Holt can't be ignored, even if it may dissipate between now and the next election in 2024 — and that's assuming Holt wins at all.

If Holt doesn't win, it's not clear the people she has attracted to the party will want to stick around for a different leader. Mullin said he hasn't decided what he'll do if that happens.

Arseneault said while "new blood" is important for a political party, long-time party supporters can't be taken for granted. 

"We can't just shove them aside," said the former cabinet minister, who argues election campaigns are major efforts that are complicated to organize. "It takes people with experience as well."

Holt has also been endorsed by a large number of old-guard Liberals, including former cabinet ministers Aldéa Landry, Bernard Thériault, Bernard Richard, Roly MacIntyre and Mary Schryer. 

She also worked in former premier Brian Gallant's government.

Still, Lewis said the buzz about Holt from non-Liberals is a positive sign for a party that hasn't enjoyed much good electoral news since 2014.

"The New Brunswick Liberal Party needs any excitement it can get," Lewis said.