I like this dude
Why Sanctions Will Hurt The West—Not Russia
1,525 Comments
Deja Vu Anyone???
Henry Kissinger on Vladimir Putin (Sept. 10, 2014) | Charlie Rose
Read the writing on the wall
IMHO All the evil bastards should shove their New World Order plans up their nasty arses then set fire to them
Friday, 2 April 2021
Russia warns NATO against deploying troops to Ukraine
https://twitter.com/DavidRaymondAm1/with_replies
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2021/04/russia-warns-nato-against-deploying.html
#nbpoli #cdnpoli #CORRUPTION
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-says-russia-massing-troops-on-border-u-s-warns-moscow-1.5371806
Ukraine says Russia massing troops on border; U.S. warns Moscow
Published Thursday, April 1, 2021 4:09PM EDT
Ukraine has been locked in a conflict with Russian-backed separatists since 2014. (AFP)
KYIV, UKRAINE -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday accused Moscow of building up troops on his country's border as the United States warned Russia against "intimidating" Ukraine.
Kiev has been locked in a conflict with Russian-backed separatists since 2014, and this week Ukrainian officials reported Russian troop movement in annexed Crimea and on the border, near territories controlled by Moscow-backed separatists.
On Thursday, Zelensky's ministers discussed the escalating security situation with Western allies including U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin.
"Muscle-flexing in the form of military exercises and possible provocations along the border are traditional Russian games," Zelensky said in a statement.
He accused Moscow of seeking to create "a threatening atmosphere" as Kiev hopes to resume a ceasefire brokered last year.
The U.S. State Department said it was "absolutely concerned by recent escalations of Russian aggressive and provocative actions in eastern Ukraine."
"What we would object to are aggressive actions that have an intent of intimidating, of threatening, our partner Ukraine," State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters.
Some observers say the reported Russian troop buildup is a test for the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, who caused an uproar in Moscow last month by calling his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin a "killer".
This week, Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other for a rise in violence between government forces and Kremlin-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, which has undermined the ceasefire.
Zelensky said 20 Ukrainian servicemen had been killed and 57 wounded since the start of the year.
Separately, the military announced that a Ukrainian soldier was wounded in an attack it blamed on separatists.
'READY FOR AN OFFENSIVE'
On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Defence Austin called his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Taran, Ukraine's defence ministry said.
Austin said during the call that Washington would "not leave Ukraine alone in the event of escalating Russian aggression", the ministry said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for his part discussed the "aggravation by the Russian Federation of the security situation" on the frontline with his Canadian counterpart Marc Garneau.
Ukraine's military intelligence accused Russia of preparing to "expand its military presence" in the separatist-controlled eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk.
In a statement, the intelligence service said it "does not rule out" an attempt by Russian forces to move "deep into Ukrainian territory".
A high-ranking Ukrainian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed that the Russian army was practising "military co-ordination" with separatists.
"From mid-April their combat units will be ready for an offensive," the official told AFP.
WEST SHOULD NOT 'WORRY'
Moscow has repeatedly denied sending troops and arms to buttress the separatists and Putin's spokesman stressed on Thursday that Moscow is at liberty to move troops across its territory.
"The Russian Federation moves its armed forces within its territory at its discretion," spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, but he did not directly confirm a troop buildup on the Ukrainian border.
He added that "it should not worry anyone and does not pose a threat to anyone".
The war in eastern Ukraine broke out in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula following a bloody uprising that ousted Ukraine's Kremlin-friendly president Viktor Yanukovych.
On Wednesday, the Pentagon said U.S. forces in Europe had raised their alert status following the "recent escalations of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine".
Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, also spoke with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, Valery Gerasimov and Ruslan Khomchak.
Khomchak said this week that 28,000 separatist fighters and "more than 2,000 Russian military instructors and advisers" are currently stationed in eastern Ukraine.
On Thursday, the deputy head of Zelensky's office, Roman Mashovets, called for joint drills with NATO forces to "help stabilise the security situation".
Zelensky was elected in 2019 promising to end the years-long conflict, but critics say a shaky ceasefire was his only tangible achievement.
The fighting has claimed more than 13,000 lives since 2014, according to the United Nations.
---------- Orginal message ----------
From: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Date: Fri, 2 Apr 2021 16:20:15 -0300
Subject: Hey Jim perhaps many Yankees should say YO to Premiers Moe
and Higgy and all of Queen Dizzy Lizzy"s minions before another
needless war breaks out overseas EH???
To: Jim@conservativewriters.org, "fin.minfinance-financemin.fin"
<fin.minfinance-financemin.
<scott.moe@gov.sk.ca>, "blaine.higgs"<blaine.higgs@gnb.ca>,
"Greta.Bossenmaier"<Greta.Bossenmaier@hq.nato.int>, NIA_IG@navy.mil,
art.mcdonald@forces.gc.ca, wayne.eyre@forces.gc.ca, premier
<premier@ontario.ca>, premier <premier@gov.bc.ca>, premier
<premier@gov.ab.ca>, pm <pm@pm.gc.ca>, "Ian.Shugart"
<Ian.Shugart@pco-bcp.gc.ca>, premier <premier@gov.pe.ca>, premier
<premier@gov.nl.ca>, premier <premier@gov.nt.ca>, premier
<premier@gov.yk.ca>, premier <premier@leg.gov.mb.ca>, PREMIER
<PREMIER@gov.ns.ca>, mcu <mcu@justice.gc.ca>, "Mark.Blakely"
<Mark.Blakely@rcmp-grc.gc.ca>, "martin.gaudet"
<martin.gaudet@fredericton.ca>, "rob.moore"<rob.moore@parl.gc.ca>,
"Ross.Wetmore"<Ross.Wetmore@gnb.ca>, erin.otoole@parl.gc.ca
Cc: motomaniac333 <motomaniac333@gmail.com>, Newsroom
<Newsroom@globeandmail.com>, Nathalie Sturgeon
<sturgeon.nathalie@
https://www.aljazeera.com/
Russia warns NATO against deploying troops to Ukraine
Moscow will act to ‘ensure its security’ if the alliance intervenes in
the conflict, which has seen fresh fighting.
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Art.McDonald@forces.gc.ca
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2021 13:49:10 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: Methinks the evil lawyer Howie Cooper made a
deal with the VERY NASTY FBI dudes in Beantown N'esy Pas Howie Anglin?
To: motomaniac333@gmail.com
The Acting Chief of the Defence Staff is LGen Wayne Eyre, he may be
reached at wayne.eyre@forces.gc.ca.
Le Chef d'état-major de la Défense par intérim est le LGen Wayne Eyre.
Il peut être rejoint au wayne.eyre@forces.gc.ca.
Art McD
He/Him // Il/Lui
Admiral/amiral Art McDonald
Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS)
Canadian Armed Forces
art.mcdonald@forces.gc.ca<mailto:art.mcdonald@forces.gc.
https://twitter.com/DavidRaymondAm1/status/1505644973953273871
I bet @BBCWorld @cse_cst and @NSACyber laughed as hard as I did EH? @ianhanomansing
"Sorry about the technical problems. Sitting in the Vancouver studio with all communications down.
Working on fixes. Stand by."
#media#RussianUkrainianWar#cdnpolitics
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2022/03/volodymyr-zelensky-to-address-house-of.html
What does Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky mean to you?
What more can we do to help? Call us: 1-888-416-8333
CBC Radio · Posted: Mar 18, 2022 6:59 PM ET
.jpg?crop=1.777xh:h;*,*&downsize=510px:*510w)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's speeches to politicians in the U.K., U.S. and Canada have rallied NATO leaders.
And his emotional appeals, particularly on social media, have inspired millions of people around the world.
Our question this week: What does Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky mean to you? What more can we do to help?
Plus, Ask Me Anything on inflation as prices continue to rise.
Tell us what you think: Call us on Sunday at 1-888-416-8333, email us, or find us on Facebook and Twitter.
Everybody knows these dudes disagree
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxUWInux_AQ&ab_channel=AlJazeeraEnglish
Ukraine: Pro-Russian separatists 'fighting to defend culture'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlLN9E2kcY&ab_channel=VICENews
Serbian War Veterans Operating in Crimea: Russian Roulette in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9smD823aE0&ab_channel=BBCNews
The comedian who could be president - BBC News
17,709 Comments
Surprise Surprise Surprise
The Crown Corp BBC blocked this comment 3 times
View 199 replies
@Eusebio Thomas BINGO
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wayne-eyrre-house-procurement-1.6390525
Top military leader calls for 'accelerated' defence investments in response to Russian aggression
Gen. Wayne Eyre says investing in soldiers is his top priority if budget increases
"I think that process needs to be accelerated," Gen. Wayne Eyre told CBC Radio's The House.
Eyre pointed to several areas where the Canadian military falls short, including ground-based air defence and an aging stock of anti-armour weapons.
"I believe we need to put those types of tools into the hands of our troops to ensure that we are ready for the threat that's out there," he said.
"The armed forces that we have today is not the armed forces that we need for the future threat."
Eyre's comments come as the federal government finalizes its next annual budget, which could include a significant bump in military spending.
Defence Minister Anita Anand told CBC News earlier this week that she will propose "aggressive options" to cabinet that could see Canada's military spending meet or exceed NATO's target of two per cent of national GDP.
"We are going to be moving forward with increased defence spending," Anand said.
Eyre focused on soldiers and readiness
NATO has set two per cent as the minimum recommended level of defence spending for member states. For years, Canada's military spending has fallen short of that benchmark.
Military spending currently amounts to about 1.4 per cent of Canada's GDP — the fifth-lowest national percentage in NATO.
If the Liberal government does increase its defence spending, Eyre said his "first and foremost" priority would be to recruit and retain a stronger and more capable fighting force.
Eyre said military readiness and high-level training for soldiers has suffered in recent years. A report by the Department of National Defence issued before the COVID-19 pandemic estimated the military's operational readiness rate at 80 per cent.
Smoke rises from an explosion in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on March 18, 2022. (Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP/Getty Images)
"Ensuring that we can attract and retain the best talent from all segments of Canadian society, that would be the top priority," he said.
While no soldiers from Canada or other NATO nations have been thrust into the conflict with Russia, the alliance is strengthening its presence in eastern Europe to deter Russian aggression.
Canada has promised to contribute about 4,000 soldiers to NATO's response force in Europe. More than 500 are already on the ground in Latvia.
Could war spill over?
Of the prospect of a wider conflict between Russia and NATO — a conflict retired Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie has said would amount to a third world war — Eyre said "we always have that fear and it's something that we need to be very mindful of."
He said current global dynamics have similarities to the climate in 1914, when rival world powers and new military technologies combined to produce the carnage of the First World War.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made veiled threats of nuclear escalation since his forces invaded Ukraine. Russia also launched an airstrike at a Ukrainian military base about 12 kilometres from the Polish border last week, killing dozens and wounding more than 100 people.
Russian airstrikes targeted the western Ukrainian city of Lviv late this week, bringing the conflict closer to NATO countries.
Eyre said Canada is "steadfastly resolute in ensuring that [the conflict] doesn't spill over into the borders of our NATO's allies."
Clarifications
- A previous version of this story noted that Canada was providing around 4,000 troops to NATO's response force in Europe. It has been clarified to indicate that Canada has committed 3,400 troops to the recently activated NATO response force, while approximately 500 troops are already present in Latvia as part of a NATO battlegroup.Mar 19, 2022 4:55 PM ET
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgKXDvgnZRo&ab_channel=CBCNews
Should Canada spend more on defence?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_gz1QuGyO4&ab_channel=CBCNews
Canada's defence spending may increase with minister bringing forward 'aggressive options'
Wali aka Olivier Lavigne-Ortiz may follow a comedian's orders but does anyone really think these dudes are gonna make peace with Putin ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMMXuKB0BoY&ab_channel=VICE
Out of Control: Ukraine's Rogue Militias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoqZ8gPKKis&ab_channel=CRUX
Azov Regiment On Ukraine Russia Frontline l Putin’s Denazification Goal Aimed At White Supremacists?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hE6b4ao8gAQ&ab_channel=BBCNewsnight
Ukraine: On patrol with the far-right National Militia - BBC Newsnight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-2oaA5N5_E&ab_channel=BBCNews
Could Russia be close to an agreement with Ukraine? - BBC News
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-canadian-forces-1.6372259
Under a foreign flag: Canadian veterans explain why they're fighting for Ukraine
Foreign fighters are being urged by Ukraine to sign three-year service contracts
And the name stuck for the former sniper with the Royal 22e Regiment, who — earlier this week, in the dead of night — crossed the border into Ukraine from Poland, answering a call from Ukraine's president for a foreign legion to help repel the Russian invasion.
The border was a surreal experience, even for a former Canadian soldier used to the unpredictability of war in the sun-scorched grape fields of Kandahar. Wali said he and the three other former Canadian soldiers who made the journey with him were greeted with hugs, handshakes, flags and photos by Ukrainians after they crossed the border.
"They were so happy to have us," said Wali (CBC News has agreed to identify him only by his nom de guerre to protect his family's safety). "It's like we were friends right away."
Wali wouldn't say exactly where he crossed the border. He said he was struck by the tide of refugees washing up in Poland.
There were buses everywhere, he said, and people bundled against the cold trudging on foot toward the checkpoint and safety. On his way deeper into Ukraine, he said he saw scattered bits of garbage and empty vehicles abandoned by their owners — who apparently hiked the final few kilometres over the frozen frontier.
'I want to help them'
The sight of people whose lives have been ripped apart by war touches everyone but it digs a little deeper for soldiers and veterans, who witness such scenes with more painful regularity.
"I want to help them. It's as simple as that," said Wali, who also did a stint as a foreign fighter with the Kurdish forces which battled Islamic State extremists in northern Iraq several years ago.
"I have to help because there are people here being bombarded just because they want to be European and not Russian."
Leaving Canada, entering a war in Ukraine
Since crossing into Ukraine, he and the other veterans have taken shelter in a partially renovated home. They are going through the final steps of linking up with Ukrainian authorities who want to place them with the army's territorial battalions — the recently reorganized reserve unit of citizen-soldiers, a force the country had hoped eventually to build up to 10,000 officers and 120,000 volunteers.
The journey from life as a civilian computer programmer with a young family in Canada to the danger and uncertainty of the biggest war Europe has seen in seven decades has been nothing short of mind-bending, Wali said.
"A week ago I was still programming stuff," he said. "Now I'm grabbing anti-tank missiles in a warehouse to kill real people …That's my reality right now."
Wali will miss his son's first birthday this week. He called it the "hardest part" of the decision to join the fight in Ukraine. His wife was opposed to the idea, he said: "You can imagine what she said and how she thinks."
CBC News has been in contact with half-a-dozen Canadian veterans in various stages of joining the fight in Ukraine. Most were unwilling to speak on the record.
A former member of the Royal Canadian Regiment — who asked not to be identified, even by a nom de guerre— said he has a personal stake in the war. He spent five years in Ukraine and has a Ukrainian wife and a young daughter.
WATCH | Ukraine has received around 30,000 applications from foreign nationals
Three-year contracts
"I don't think the Ukrainians deserve what's going on," said the former soldier. He heads up a humanitarian organization called the Norman Group, which has volunteered to deliver aid and assistance in the eastern portion of Ukraine where Russia has fought an eight-year proxy war against the pro-western government in Kyiv.
He said the Ukrainians have been asking the foreign fighters to sign three-year contracts with the territorial defence forces. Many of the volunteers are reluctant.
In an interview with CBC News before the war, Denys Podanchuk — a civilian adviser to the commander of Ukraine's special forces and the territorial defence units — said that the citizen-soldiers needed to sign those contracts in order to receive all of the legal protections and benefits the government in Kyiv could offer.
"We have said in our law that all members of resistance have all the [same] rights as soldiers in our army," Podanchuk said in Kyiv in early February. "All members of this legal volunteer defence group ... all of them have equal rights, social rights, as legal soldiers."
Displaced people rest at a makeshift shelter in Mlyny, near the Korczowa border crossing, in Poland, Thursday, March 3, 2022. More than 1 million people have fled Ukraine following Russia's invasion — the swiftest refugee exodus in this century, according to the United Nations. (Markus Schreiber/AP)
Just before the outbreak of hostilities with Russia, the Ukrainian parliament passed sweeping legislation mandating national resistance among citizens. The aim of portions of the law was to ensure that, in the event of capture, registered citizen-soldiers would be afforded the protection of the Geneva Conventions.
The addition of foreign volunteers was not something Podanchuk discussed.
There is a law in Canada that dates back to 1937 — called the Foreign Enlistment Act — which was designed to discourage Canadians from fighting in the Spanish Civil War. It would not specifically exclude people from signing up to fight for Ukraine.
It prohibits people from fighting with a foreign country against an ally of Canada.
The peril of paramilitary service
"There's an argument to be made, I think a very strong one, that it would be illegal to serve in the armed forces of Russia," Tyler Wentzell, a doctoral candidate of law at the University of Toronto Faculty of Law who studied the foreign fighters and the legal responses to them.
A small boy looks out of a train window at displaced persons fleeing Ukraine at the train station in Przemysl, Poland, Thursday, March 3, 2022. (Markus Schreiber/AP)
Wentzell said it's important that people who volunteer avoid paramilitary groups.
"An individual fighting for those groups who is captured is perhaps less likely to be extended the courtesies of international humanitarian law, the protections under the Geneva Conventions and otherwise," he said. "So I think it would be in anyone's best interests if they were to go to serve with the recognized armed forces of Ukraine."
The Liberal government appears to walk a tightrope every time it's asked about Canadians signing up to fight for Ukraine.
"Of course, we understand Canadians' desire to join our Ukrainian friends to fight," Defence Minister Anita Anand said on Thursday — before turning the question into a straight-up recruiting pitch for the Canadian Armed Forces, which has struggled with recruitment in the last several years.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wali-alive-despite-russian-disinformation-1.6393191
'I'm alive': Former Canadian Forces sniper debunks rumours of his death in Ukraine
"I'm pretty much the last person to know about my death"— former CAF sniper 'Wali'
The former CAF member — who goes by the nom de guerre Wali — told CBC News he returned to a safe location in Ukraine Monday after a week spent battling Russian forces on the front lines in the Kyiv region. When he turned on his phone, he discovered hundreds of urgent messages from people convinced he'd been killed in action.
His wife, father, friends and total strangers sent frantic messages trying to confirm he was still alive. His former commander in Kurdistan, who fought with Wali against ISIS, sent a note saying the community sacrificed a sheep in his honour.
"I'm alive, as you can see," Wali said in a video call Tuesday. "Not a single scratch."
"I'm pretty much the last person to know about my death."
Misinformation about Wali's record has been circulating online for weeks — including claims that he was the deadliest sniper in the world and held a record for the longest-distance kill shot. VKontakt, a Russian social media site, posted that Wali had been killed by Russian special forces 20 minutes after he arrived in Mariupol, now under siege by Russian forces.
'It's so amateur'
"I've never seen Mariupol in my life," Wali said (CBC News has agreed to identify him only by his alias to protect his family's safety).
"I don't understand why they are doing this because it's so amateur."
He called the lies "obvious" and said rumours of soldiers' deaths can easily be refuted within days. Reuters reported that the Tennessee National Guard debunked false claims last week by Russia's Pravda newspaper that three American veterans had been killed in Ukraine.
Wali — who joined Ukraine's defence along with another Canadian veteran who goes by the nickname "Shadow"— said he's not the deadliest sniper in the world and holds no records. Just a few weeks ago, he said, he was working as a computer programmer in Canada and wasn't actively training.
WATCH: Former Canadian forces sniper offers proof-of-life from Ukraine
"I'm a good sniper," said Wali. "Nothing less, nothing more ... I didn't kill any Russians yet. I help doing so because the sniper is doing a lot of observation, reporting."
Wali said that, over the past week, he's seen Russian forces indiscriminately shelling everything in their path.
"They use a lot of artillery and rifles and shelling," he said. "They just shoot everywhere.
"I think I received maybe hundreds of shells in the past days."
Once, he said, he felt the pressure of an explosion and turned to see what he thought at first was a "beautiful sunset."
"It was the city burning," he said. "Everything is destroyed in some places."
Wali in the Kyiv region earlier this month. (Submitted by Wali)
Wali said he didn't sleep or eat for days while in the midst of the fighting. He said his journey back from the defence of Kyiv to a safe location elsewhere in Ukraine brought him past "apocalyptic" scenes of devastation caused by relentless Russian shelling.
"The rounds just kept falling overhead and exploding," he said.
Wali told CBC News he's still trying to respond to a "cascade of new messages" from people who heard he was dead. Some friends have been asking him questions about his personal history to test his identity, he said. Others have asked him for photos or videos to prove he's alive, he said.
'To find me is not that easy'
Wali runs a blog and has been doing interviews with media outlets around the world. That activity, he said, may have put him on the radar of Russian intelligence.
"It's a double-edged sword," he said. "It's true, that it can be very dangerous.
"I might be more interesting than a normal soldier, but to find me is not that easy. It's not that easy to find someone hidden away."
Marcus Kolga of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute runs a Canadian foreign disinformation monitoring and debunking platform. He said Wali's case is not surprising since Russian state media has been "spinning'' stories as domestic propaganda and to deter foreigners from joining the fight to defend Ukraine.
"This story is intended to demonstrate to Russian people that Russia is ... able to handle these foreign fighters who are coming to aid the defence of Ukraine," Kolga said.
Wali said he left his phone at a secure base before leaving for the Kyiv front because he didn't want to risk alerting Russian intelligence to his whereabouts.
Ukraine's President Volodymr Zelensky put out a worldwide call for volunteers to join his country's defence — but foreign fighters who don't sign three-year contracts with Ukraine's military aren't protected by international law in the event of capture.
Russia has said that it will treat foreign fighters as mercenaries.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from Murray Brewster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhWlMt0w1yw&ab_channel=TorontoStar
Canadian sniper ‘Wali’ on learning of his supposed death and why he chose to fight for Ukraine
https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/8321825.Olivier_Lavigne_Ortiz
Olivier Lavigne-Ortiz
Olivier Lavigne-Ortiz’s books
 | The Other Side of the Lens - Volume 1: The Photographic Journey of a Canadian Sniper in Afghanistan |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-AZb5ByhXY&ab_channel=CBCNews%3ATheNational
Leaving Canada, entering a war in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ez5payykwE4&ab_channel=CTVNews
Canadian sniper's 3.5 km shot in Iraq shatters world record
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMjOjhpMTCY&ab_channel=HindustanTimes
World's best sniper 'Wali' in Ukraine after Zelensky's appeal; Helping Ukraine in fighting Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kJm2QgJmc0&ab_channel=AfricanInsider
'World's Best Sniper' Wali might have been killd by Russian Missile strike
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/world-news/2022/03/18/6234a5ffca474192228b45e2.html
The mistake that could have caused the death of Wali, the world's best sniper
Russia claims responsibility for his death, but Ukraine denies it
Russia is claiming that Oliver Lavigne-Ortiz, otherwise known as 'Wali' and considered to be the world's best sniper, has lost his life shortly after joining Ukraine's defence against the neighbouring country's invasion.
However, Ukraine denies reports about the alleged death of Wali, who has gone through various conflicts, from Afghanistan to Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan.
Allegedly communicated his position in the combat zone
Although it has yet to be confirmed, there are reports claiming that the Canadian sniper mistakenly communicated his position to the Russians or the area where Ukrainian forces placed him.
His position was allegedly located by the Russian army, who bombed the area, causing the death of Wali.
It sounds surprising that an experienced snipper would make such a mistake, but it has to be noted that the Russian army are using technology that is more sophisticated that the one used in the Middle East by the Taliban, Islamic State and Iraqi militias.
The fact is that no one has heard of Wali in several days, with his case being currently shrouded in the fog of war.
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/world-news/2022/03/17/62336d62e2704e36418b4624.html
What is known about Wali, the best sniper in the world?
Russia maintains they have shot the Canadian
Very little is known about the 40-year-old Canadian computer scientist who joined the Ukrainian army in order to fight against the Russian invasion, yet Wali, as he is known, is now the subject of a PR battle between the two sides.
However, Ukraine News UK and the Daily Mail have both looked to reassure the Ukrainian people that Wali is still very much alive and fighting against the Russian invasion.
Who is Wali?
Little is known with regards to Wali's back story, although he is thought to have combat experience in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
He has been described as a racist due to the fact he appeared to enjoy shooting Islamic militants, whilst those who knew him described him as 'mentally unstable'.
In the Ukrainian media he has been labelled as a hero, having killed 11 Russian soldiers since stepping foot inside the country.
Is this Canadian sniper still alive?The truth is shrouded in Ukraine’s ‘fog of war’ and Russia’s propaganda machine
Date:
/https:/www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/canada/2022/03/15/is-this-canadian-sniper-alive-the-truth-is-caught-up-in-ukraines-fog-of-war-and-the-russian-propaganda-machine/wali_2_.jpg)
Torch and Sword It was Olivier Lavigne-Ortiz who went to write about where he crossed the border into Ukraine as a foreign volunteer soldier and shared pictures of the weapons he got on the other side.
That means “torch and sword,” online blogs and the Facebook community have been containers for years of the former Canadian Army sniper’s thoughts and observations about his time in conflict zones, as he told The Star in 2016 As stated in the interview, he considers himself both a soldier and a storyteller.
That is, until the account goes black this week, which is a departure from his roughly once-a-day postings since late February. Meanwhile, Russian social media accounts began spreading rumours about Lavigne-Ortiz’s death.
No official source has confirmed whether Lavigne-Ortiz is dead or alive. Relatives posted online that they fully believed he was alive. But he was in a war zone, and the truth remained elusive. Meanwhile, experts say his so-called death story fits Russia’s long history of misinformation playbook and information warfare.
Ravigne-Ortiz, known to his 40,000 Facebook followers as “Wali”, has fought and documented his time in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and now Ukraine, always portraying Out of pictures of glory from knocking down enemies and fighting back, he said, images of invaders spreading through war.
This purpose, and the fame Vali has gained, may be why Russian troll farms want to spread the news of his alleged death.
On Monday, Valli shared a post on his blog telling his followers not to worry about his safety after the deadly attack in Russia.
“I have moved away from the base that was hit yesterday,” he wrote, referring to the Russian missile strike near Lviv. “Those who died probably didn’t see the Russian soldiers. This is modern warfare. Still just as dirty, but impersonal.”
It was far from Lviv, he said, but he did not say where he was. This was Wali’s last post before his channel went down. As of Friday, he hadn’t done it again.
But less than 24 hours after Valli’s last post, the explanation for his silence went viral on Russian social media networks such as VKontakt.
“Canadian sniper, advertised as ‘world’s deadliest sniper’…killed by Russian special forces in Mariupol 20 minutes after landing,” the administrator of the Russian nationalist group wrote in a post road.
The post was “liked” over 12,000 times and will continue to appear on countless other channels.
Varley’s internet followers weren’t so quick to take the news, which has yet to be confirmed by independent news or government sources.
A spokesman for Global Affairs Canada said it had not been informed of any Canadian volunteer fighters killed in Ukraine.
“Think about it,” one Wally fan said in French in a video he made for the rumor. “How could Vali be in Mariupol the day after crossing the border into Ukraine? … Valli is still alive.”
Wally said a Facebook post by the Norman Brigade, the group he traveled with, did not confirm whether he was alive or dead, but said he was not near Mariupol on the day the Russian post claimed he was killed.
Whether or not Wally is still alive, it’s clear why Russia is spreading the news of his death, said Thomas Holt, a professor at Michigan State University’s School of Criminal Justice who specializes in internet hacking.
“This is a classic model of potential psychological warfare using information warfare. So saying you killed an enemy combatant very quickly…before he can do anything, this might not only make people who might see him as Low sentiment among Ukrainians of potential assets … that will definitely affect Canadian personal opposition to possible involvement in the conflict itself.”
For Yevgeniy Golovchenko, a social media disinformation researcher at the University of Copenhagen, Wali has been drawn into a larger “fog of war” — the truth, distortion and falsehood that Russia spreads during the war A barrage of information to sow support for the Russians, frustration for the Ukrainian army and confusion for everyone else.
“If you look at the classic disinformation tactics…you almost always go for stories and narratives that grab people’s attention – those are viral. Writing stories or narratives or falsehoods about things no one reads. Information is meaningless,” Golovchenko said.
“There’s no point in telling this person’s story if the person isn’t already famous.”
But Wally was famous, and known for his art of war.
By March 3, he had arrived in Ukraine and had posted about the crossing with three other Quebec volunteers and some Britons. He blogged that he joined the Norman Brigade, a group of Canadian and British volunteer fighters working together in Ukraine.
His arrival in Ukraine was covered breathlessly by a handful of international media and other sites that declared him a talent who could single-handedly weaken the Russian military. He is often described as the world’s deadliest sniper, but his exact achievements are difficult to prove given the secrecy of sniper operations.
He told the CBC earlier this month that he was traveling with three other former Canadian soldiers who were greeted with hugs and handshakes as they crossed the border.
“They’re happy to have us,” he told the CBC. “It’s like we became friends right away.”
Holt said Valli’s reputation must have contributed to why Russia was amplifying news of his alleged death. But, he said, the post about Wally was part of a bigger picture and a long tradition of spreading information during wartime.
“It’s important to note that this is just another tool in a broader information warfare suite,” Holt said. “In traditional information warfare, going back decades and even back to World War II and Vietnam, the use of printed material to strike or stabilize the population of an occupied country or the conflict itself is common.”
Russia’s use of disinformation, misinformation and propaganda has been well documented by the international community, especially since the country’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. A U.S. intelligence report released last year said Russia is at the center of a controlled information ecosystem that includes state media, agricultural internet trolls and friendly third-party websites that support it.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has not made any comment to Valli through its official communication channels.
There are examples of propaganda on both sides of the war.
In Russia, state-controlled news outlets have amplified videos that apparently show Nazi flags being seized by Russian troops in Ukraine (Russia is using Ukraine’s Nazism as a justification for the invasion). In Ukraine, government sources circulated a story of Russian troops occupying Serpent Island, saying that only 13 soldiers defending the island refused to surrender and were killed (Ukrainian sources later suggested that they may have been captured, rather than being killed).
Holt said the vast amount of information out there — some real, some fake — makes it nearly impossible to verify whether someone like Valli is really alive.
After all, Holt said, Valley would be wise to keep quiet in this situation.
“So, in the meantime, it’s probably wisest to take everything with a grain of salt and check the source. If it’s just troll farms (spreading this information), then it’s probably not real,” Holt said. “But it’s very difficult. I would say it’s like the information fog of war, and without good information, it’s hard to get accuracy until third parties, new sources, etc. can verify it.”
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How vaccination status might predict views on the Russian invasion of Ukraine
New poll indicates that “vaccine refusers are much more sympathetic to Russia.”
Former Canadian soldier fights Daesh with gun in one hand, camera in the other
Olivier Lavigne-Ortiz left the Canadian military to fight with Kurdish forces and shoot a documentary film about the anti-terrorist battle in Iraq
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBS4UxMB3zI&ab_channel=SOLSTICE%2F%2FAUDIOVISUEL
Musée Royal 22e Régiment - Témoignages de guerre
ST-RAYMOND, QUE.—There was a moment last year along a dusty path on the way to a village in northern Iraq that Olivier Lavigne-Ortiz said he was literally leading the international coalition against the Islamic terror group Daesh.
As a volunteer fighter attached to a company of Kurdish soldiers, the 34-year-old former Canadian soldier was walking ahead of his brothers-in-arms toward the next frontline and the next fight against the enemy.
“I remember that I was in front of everyone and I thought: “This is the coalition—a bulldozer, a tank without bullets and 20 ill-equipped soldiers,” he recalled in a recent interview in this town on the outskirts of Quebec City.
The former sniper with the legendary Royal 22nd Regiment, the Vandoos, had been to Afghanistan twice. He had had access to the best equipment and training in the world. Now, he was battling with a band of valiant fighters against the terror group in its self-proclaimed caliphate.
Only a small number of Canadians are believed to have undertaken such a mission and about a half-dozen western volunteers are believed to have been killed in combat, including Canadian John Gallagher, who was killed in November 2015.
But what makes Lavigne-Ortiz’s three-and-a-half-month mission remarkable is that he was simultaneously shooting footage for what is now a feature-length documentary.
“I really had two missions at the same time: that of a soldier and a filmmaker,” he said. “A weapon in one hand and a camera in the other—that really captures it.”
The 98-minute film, which was shot using a handheld digital camera and a GoPro camera attached to his rifle, is as much an homage to the Kurds as it is about the experience of foreign fighters who are acting as the boots on the ground despite the reluctance of western governments to dispatch their ground forces.
Its title, “Beside Heroes,” also gives away Lavigne-Ortiz’s goal: to produce a sort of counterpunch to the glut of slick and gruesome propaganda produced by Daesh, which is also known as ISIS or the Islamic State.
Compared to the might and know-how of the Canadian or British or American armies, the filmmaker and his comrades made for a rag-tag force. They had no sophisticated weapons systems, seamless support or technical wizardry. But their successes in the summer and fall of 2015 and the more recent advances against Daesh fighters in Iraq and Syria convinced Lavigne-Ortiz that victory is a matter of will, not skill.
“People often ask when will we beat the Islamic State. I tell them, “When we decide we want to,’” he said, adding that the combined strength of CFB Valcartier—his former home base—would suffice.
“Once the operation started we should be able to beat them within a week.”
But no country has been willing to send anything beyond special forces’ advisors and fighter jets into Iraq. In Syria, the geopolitical considerations have resulted in a humanitarian crisis as local civilians suffer the ravages of their countries’ civil war.
But those realities have resulted in increasing numbers of trained western soldiers taking it upon themselves to act.
Lavigne-Ortiz said the notion first came to him in December 2014 as he was in the process of leaving the Canadian military. He did his research, tried his best to alleviate the concerns of his worried family and was gone by July 2015.
He had a few contacts in Kurdistan, but none that would seriously engage him in his quest for battle until he had dust on his boots.
Once there, he met two Americans who appear in the film but are identified only as Zyrian and Rebaz. They were shuffled around in the backfield of the war for weeks, treated as mascots and given make-work projects designed to keep them away from danger.
They persisted in asking to see action and were eventually incorporated into actual fighting units.
In one of the most horrifying scenes of the documentary, a vehicle carrying a group of people posing as refugees detonated a bomb near the Kurdish forces and a group of refugees they were escorting to safety. Among the dead is a young girl, lifeless in her father’s arms.
Lavigne-Ortiz said there were many similarities with Afghanistan, despite this being a conventional war with frontlines—a battle for territory—rather than a counterinsurgency concerned with winning the hearts and minds of the population.
“In Afghanistan we occupied a country in which there were people who didn’t want you there. You were never sure. In Kurdistan they want your help,” he said.
Upon his return to Canada, Lavigne-Ortiz said he was prepared for the worst. He had consulted the RCMP before his departure to ensure he was breaking no laws. But he had made copies of his footage in case his memory cards were seized by border agents, effectively putting his film on ice.
His worrying was in vain.
“When I returned it was easier than coming back from Mexico,” he said.
Had border agents checked his backpack, they would have found a soldier’s souvenirs of war. They included an improvised pressure plate made of two strips of metal, a bloody ammunition vest that probably belonged to an enemy fighter and the tattered and ripped black flag of Daesh, which Lavigne-Ortiz claimed from the battlefield.
“It took about 30 seconds. They asked where I had been and I said I was coming back from Kurdistan in Iraq. There was no reaction. I don’t even think they asked what I was doing there.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ2uNpY9ddA&ab_channel=BBCNews
Hints of progress in peace talks as Ukraine accepts it cannot join NATO - BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYVsKoQXATY&ab_channel=BBCNews
The former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev full interview - BBC News
Russia-Ukraine War: Putin & Zelenskyy To Meet In Next Few Weeks After Signing Peace Deal
The deal includes a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops if Kyiv renounces its ambitions for membership of NATO and accepts limits on its armed forces.
Image: AP
A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is likely to take place in the next few weeks, Ukraine President's advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said on Thursday. According to reports, Russia and Ukraine are drawing up a tentative peace plan to conclude the war. The deal includes a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops if Kyiv renounces its ambitions for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and accepts limits on its armed forces, The Kyiv Independent reported. The meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy could take place once this peace treaty is finalised.
"A meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin may take place in the next few weeks, when the peace treaty will be finished," Podolyak was quoted by NEXTA as saying.
When it comes to Ukraine, the President's Office had earlier stated that war with Russia will end, provided a new international security coalition is constituted. Notably, the demand for an international security coalition was raised by Zelenskyy in his address to the United States Congress on March 16.
"We need new institutions and new alliances to stop the war. We propose to create a new alliance. It would be to provide all the necessary support in 24 hours. Such alliances will provide assistance to those who will fall victim to various crisis, and will help save thousands of lives," he had said.
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Ukraine Demands Russia To Give Up Veto In UNSC If It Doesn't Comply With ICJ Order
Peace deal between Moscow & Kyiv possible by May?
Earlier, Alexey Arestovich, another advisor to the Ukrainian President had hinted that Moscow and Kyiv could sign the tentative peace deal by early May. Arestovich had opined that in the best-case scenario, a deal involving the withdrawal of Russian troops could even be reached within a fortnight and added that the 4th round of talks had been 'more constructive.'
The fourth-round talks between Russia and Ukraine resumed via video link on March 15, Tuesday after a 'technical pause'. The brief pause had been taken for 'additional work in the working subgroups and clarification of individual definitions', according to Mykhailo Podoliyak.
Addressing the halt, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said, "Our delegation worked on this in negotiations with the Russian party. (The latest talks on Monday went) pretty good, as I was told. But let’s see. They will continue tomorrow."
The 4th round of negotiations was reportedly held on peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees. Notably, Zelenskyy has, on a number of occasions, proposed a direct meeting with his Russian counterpart as part of the negotiation process.
Follow all the Russia-Ukraine War News and Headlines on Russia-Ukraine War LIVE Updates
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-russia-ukraine-putin-bennett-1.6386646
Israel's direct line to Putin casts it as an unlikely potential mediator in Russia's war on Ukraine
Israeli PM Naftali Bennett has had calls with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky
Since Russia launched its war with Ukraine, only one Western leader has had face time with Vladmir Putin: Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
A little over a week after the Russian president had ordered the launch of missile and artillery attacks into Ukraine territory, Bennett flew to Moscow to hold a meeting with Putin. But later that day, Bennett also spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
And now, it's Bennett, who according to a report in the Financial Times, has been "the primary international mediator" in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as they try to hammer out a peace deal.
This open dialogue Bennett has with both leaders highlights the distinctive, yet delicate position Israel finds itself in when it comes to the war in Ukraine. It is now seen as potentially playing a mediator-type role in trying to end the war, but it has also been called out for not taking a stronger stance against the invasion.
"We're in a situation where tiny Israel has all of a sudden become this pivot in the potential Cold War rematch," said Shalom Lipner, who was an advisor for seven consecutive Israeli premiers over a quarter-century at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem.
"Nobody would have seen that coming."
Israel toeing 'very delicate line'
"It's turned out that Israel has been the rare exception that's become acceptable to both sides,"he said.
While Israel remains a staunch ally of the United States, circumstances in the Middle East over the past decade have led it to carve out its own co-operative relationship with Russia.
That has led to a situation where "Bennett, unlike probably any other Western leader, can hop on a flight like he did two weekends ago and travel to Moscow and meet Putin in person," said Neri Zilber, a Tel Aviv-based journalist covering Middle East politics and an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett speaks at a cyber tech conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Thursday, March 3, 2022. At the conference, Bennett called on world leaders to get Russia and Ukraine 'out of the battlefield and to the negotiating table,' less than a day after he spoke to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (Ariel Schalit/The Associated Press)
However, it also means that Israel is "trying to toe a very delicate line between, you know, moral and humanitarian support to Ukraine, while also safeguarding a few vital strategic interests, as the government sees it, vis-a-vis Russia."
Since the conflict began, Bennett has met with Putin once, and spoken on the phone with him twice. Meanwhile, Bennett has had six calls with Zelensky, the Associated Press reported.
On Monday evening, Bennett left a cabinet meeting in order to hold back-to-back phone calls with Putin and Zelensky, Reuters reported. The call with Putin lasted for roughly an hour and a half.
"Israel will continue to act to prevent bloodshed and bring the sides from the battlefield to the conference table," Bennett said this week.
WATCH | Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia 'more realistic' in talks with Ukraine:
Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia 'more realistic' in talks with Ukraine
Mediator or go-between?
Despite Bennett's access to both leaders, it still remains unclear how far his role as a so-called mediator may extend.
"It'd be a little bit exaggerated to say that he's going to broker a deal between between Ukraine and Russia," Lipner said.
However, there is still merit in having Israel act as a potential go-between, "trying to kind of narrow gaps between the two sides," as well as relaying whatever Putin says to Israel's Western allies, Zilber said.
"I think that a more and more realistic role is really this kind of a role as a go between rather than full on mediator," said Vera Michlin-Shapir, who previously worked on Israel's National Security Council.
"Someone who can go and … speak to both sides in a more amicable way, even just to get a better feel of the situation. That's quite a lot. It's not nothing."
People hold placards as they take part in a protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine outside Israel's government offices in Tel Aviv, Israel, Saturday, March 12. (Ariel Schalit/The Associated Press)
Israel co-ordination with Russia in Syria
Israel's current relationship with Russia has been forged out of Russia's military presence in Syria. Russia has backed Syrian President Bashar Assad in the civil war in that country, and has established a military presence there. Yet Israel has continued to carry out attacks against Hezbollah and Iranian backed targets in Syria, which has necessitated Russia working with Israel to ensure its military is spared from hits.
As well, the countries have worked out what's known as a deconfliction mechanism between the Israeli Air Force and the Russian Air Force to ensure clashes are avoided.
"[There] have been very frequent meetings and co-ordination on that specific issue," said Gerald Steinberg, professor emeritus of political science at Bar-Ilan University.
"It's not at all unusual for Israeli prime ministers — in the past it was [Benjamin] Netanyahu — now Mr. Bennett, to fly to Moscow on those issues. They know Putin. And Putin knows the Israeli leadership.
"It is not completely out of the blue that Bennett would go and talk to Putin in what was described as some sort of third party, perhaps mediation. So Israel is in a relatively unique position."
Israel also has a large expatriate population of Russians and Ukranians, and there are thousands of dual citizens, both Russian and Israeli and Ukranian and Israeli, Steinberg said, noting there's also a Jewish community in Russia.
"So there's been that dialogue. Putin has always taken an interest in the expat community in Israel," he said.
Bennett criticized for reluctance to condemn Russia
However, Bennett's reaction to the conflict has prompted some criticism against the Israeli prime minister, accusing him of being reluctant to condemn Russia's aggression.
While Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has repeatedly condemned Russia's invasion, Bennett's criticism has been muted.
"It was criticized and there was criticism from within Israel. Lots of pressure from the United States in particular. You have an invasion of a country [that's a] democracy and Israel was sitting on the side," Steinberg said.
Israel has delivered humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but has not joined its Western allies in sending military assistance or imposing sanctions on Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, right, shakes hands with Israeli President Isaac Herzog during a welcome ceremony ahead of their meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, in October 2021. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via The Associated Press)
Steinberg said Israel is in a position where it doesn't want to anger Putin and lose the co-ordination it has regarding Syria, which is vital to their security. But at the same time, he said it wants to fulfil its sense of obligation toward a fellow democratic country like Ukraine.
Israel did vote in the UN General Assembly to condemn Russia. Meanwhile, Israel says it is working to prevent Moscow's oligarchs, some of whom also hold Israeli passports, from showing up and turning the country into a haven for sanctions evasion, the Washington Post reported.
Israel's position has 'limited horizon'
However, Lipner suggested that Israel's current position of trying to play both sides, or "dance between the raindrops" has a "limited horizon."
"I don't know that Israel could afford to sustain a position like this where there are questions about where allegiances lie."
If the conflict drags on and no tangible progress is made toward a deal, or there's a perception that Putin is just playing Bennett as he continues his war objectives, "the jig will be up."
"At that point I don't think that anybody will tolerate sort of any equivocation," Lipner said.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With files from The Associated Press and Reuters
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/putins-war-economy-column-don-pittis-1.6386042
Putin's war has destabilized the world economy and inflation may be just the start
The Russian attack on Ukraine is already affecting Canadians and their economy
Suddenly people who only a month ago were worried about keeping their jobs and paying their mortgages are on the move, some to the Polish border to escape shattered homes, some to risk their lives in battle.
By definition it is the unexpected that perturbs the world economy and the markets that are one of its real-time barometers.
As Canadian inflation hits new highs and the world's most powerful central bank makes its first attempt to restrain an explosion of rising prices, even a continent away, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered an unpredictable alteration in what we thought were the conventions of global economics.
Tragic human toll
"The human toll is tragic, the financial and economic implications for the global economy and the U.S. economy are highly uncertain," is how Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, began his address Wednesday as he announced the central bank would raise interest rates by one quarter of a percentage point.
That is the same increase announced by Tiff Macklem at the Bank of Canada two weeks ago. Of course Macklem's small rate hike was too late to stop Wednesday's rise in Canadian inflation which hit a 30-year high of 5.7 per cent.
As Powell said in his speech, most of the recent surge in inflation cannot be blamed on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The exception is gas price hikes caused by the war, which have already aggravated the latest Canadian rise.
But while its full effect has yet to show up in the statistics, Putin's war is already pushing North American consumer prices higher than if the war had never happened.
Asked directly about the impact of sanctions on the U.S. dollar and its place as the default currency for world trade, Powell explicitly refused to address the question other than offering general support for sanctions and to say they were the remit of politicians. He said central bankers had only been technical advisors.
Watching for war's 'spillovers'
But Powell made it clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the world's response, held both actual and potential implications for the U.S. economy and for its monetary policy.
"In addition to the effects from higher global oil and commodity prices, the invasion and related events may restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, which would create spillovers to the U.S. economy through trade and other channels," said Powell.
There are increasing signs that the new European war has been the catalyst for a series of shifts in the global economy, of which even higher than expected inflation is only a single result.
A firefighter works in Kharkiv, Ukraine on Wednesday trying to keep flames from spreading. (Oleksandr Lapshyn/Reuters)
"The volatility in financial markets, particularly if sustained, could also affect credit conditions and affect the real economy," said Powell.
The Federal Reserve chair said that while the central bank had to be aware of those potential challenges, his principal goal remained fighting domestic inflation with a stream of interest rate hikes over this year and next that is expected to take rates to 2.8 per cent by the end of 2023.
But with Europe facing its biggest war since the 1940s, there are plenty of unknowns.
"While we have pretty sophisticated economic models, none of them are going to give us the understanding of how prolonged or what the magnitude of the shock in Eastern Europe is going to be," said Frances Donald, global chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment Management.
Contracting economies
So far analysts at Reuters and Bloomberg say the economies of Ukraine and Russia will be the worst affected by the war, though any figures can only be estimates.
In the case of Russia, the impact of sanctions including the collapse of the ruble and the country's stock market could lead to a GDP decline of about 9 per cent in 2022 according to Bloomberg Economics although other estimates range from a decline of 15 per cent to a drop of 7 per cent.
New Russian bombardment hits Kyiv, striking 2 apartment blocks
Exactly how that will affect the rest of the world is even less clear. Despite its enormous military and a population of nearly 150 million people, recent IMF figures indicate Russia's pre-war economy was already smaller than that of Canada or South Korea.
Denmark has forecast a slowdown in GDP from 3.1 to 2.1 per cent that the central bank attributes to Putin's war as fuel costs feed into inflation. German car companies have already been affected by the loss of steel from Ukraine.
So long as it is moderate, Powell indicated that a slowdown in the global economy would not necessarily be a bad thing as the U.S. faced an overheated job market where there are "1.7 job openings for every unemployed person," he said.
With such a hot economy Powell told reporters that the central bank had no expectations of a recession. But as he said, that does not rule out further financial shocks.
Complicated linkages
A falling out with China could create a worse disruption but this week Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is reported to have told his Spanish counterpart China was anxious to avoid further damage to the global economy.
The global economy is linked in complicated ways that may not be obvious at first. For example, a default on Russian bonds in 1998 resulted in a meltdown of Long Term Capital Management, an aggressive hedge fund that some say could have caused a collapse in U.S. markets if it had been forced to sell off its assets to cover losses.
At the time, the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan slashed interest rates to prop up markets in what then became an all-purpose contrivance for fixing problems, and which may have helped contribute to the low, low rates we have today.
Now, with interest rates already near zero and inflation soaring to near eight per cent, that is a tool Powell would have trouble using again.
Follow Don Pittis on Twitter @don_pittis
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anand-defence-spending-1.6387361
Defence minister says she's considering 'aggressive options' to increase Canada's military spending
Canada's defence budget is among the lowest of all NATO members
Some of the options could see Ottawa's defence spending exceed two per cent of Canada's GDP, Anand said.
On Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on allied nations to spend a "minimum" of two per cent of GDP on defence. He warned the upcoming expansion of NATO's deterrence and defence efforts in eastern Europe will "require major investments" by the allies.
Canada currently spends 1.39 per cent of its GDP on the military, according to the latest NATO figures, and has had no plan to hit the long-established two per cent target. Anand signalled that might change.
"I personally am bringing forward aggressive options which would see [Canada], potentially, exceeding the two per cent level, hitting the two per cent level, and below the two per cent level," she said during an interview with CBC's Power & Politics.
WATCH | Defence minister discusses spending plans on CBC's Power & Politics
When spending options are prepared for the federal cabinet, senior bureaucrats routinely give ministers three options with pricetags.
When it presented its defence policy almost five years ago, the Trudeau government projected defence spending would increase to nearly 1.5 per cent of GDP by 2024.
But a recent report by the Parliamentary Budget Office showed that much of the capital spending on new equipment has been pushed off until later in the decade because of delays in major projects, such as new frigates for the navy and fighter jets for the air force.
Canada currently has the fifth-lowest defence budget as a portion of GDP among the 30 NATO member states. The defence budgets of the United States and United Kingdom are 3.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent of GDP, respectively.
"We are going to be moving forward with increased defence spending," Anand said.
"Why? Because we see the threat environment as changing rapidly but also because continental defence is a priority for me, personally as minister, and for our government."
Anand said she has raised the issue of defence spending with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland within the past day. She said she has spoken also to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the prospect of changes to the military budget.
During his recent tour of Europe and in consultations with allies, Trudeau refused to commit to higher defence spending in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though Freeland has said "defence spending is something that we have to look at carefully."
The federal government is expected to table its next annual budget in the first week of April.
The increased spending will include work to modernize NORAD and efforts to strengthen Canada's presence in the Arctic, Anand said.
When it presented its 2017 defence policy, the Liberal government did not include the cost of modernizing NORAD, the North American air defence network, in its projections.
With files from Murray Brewster
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-ukraine-russia-stoltenberg-1.6386902
NATO makes plans to boost its military presence in eastern Europe as Ukraine war grinds on
'We face a new reality for our security'— NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
Jens Stoltenberg made the remarks at the end of a special ministerial meeting in Brussels which also included representatives of Sweden, Finland and Ukraine.
The plans, he said, will be discussed along with other developments in Russia's invasion of Ukraine by NATO leaders at an emergency meeting next week at alliance headquarters.
Final approval for the deployment — which is expected to send thousands more troops into the Baltic states, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania — will be sought at the annual meeting of NATO leaders in Madrid, Spain in June.
The secretary general also said that increases in deterrence and defence will "require major investments" and that allies "will need to invest a minimum of two per cent" of their gross domestic product in defence.
The note of urgency in Stolenberg's statement is significant because NATO nations committed in 2014 to coming up with plans to meet the benchmark. Canada currently spends 1.39 per cent of its GDP on the military and has no plan to hit the long-established two per cent target.
"We face a new reality for our security, so we must reset our collective defence and deterrence for the longer term," Stoltenberg said.
He said NATO military commanders were told Wednesday to develop "options across all domains. Land. Air. Sea. Cyber and space."
There are now 40,000 troops under direct NATO command in eastern Europe. Stoltenberg said the new plan should include "substantially more forces" on land "in the eastern part of the alliance at higher readiness, with more pre-positioned equipment and supplies."
WATCH: NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says allies must do more to ensure security
The plan also is expected to place more allied airpower, aircraft carrier strike groups and submarines in the region "on a persistent basis," Stoltenberg said.
Canada now has 540 troops deployed in Latvia. They're leading a NATO battlegroup as part of a mission to deter further Russian aggression. Another 120 Canadian soldiers and an artillery battery are on their way to join them.
Two Canadian frigates have been attached to the NATO standing task forces and the Canadian air force has contributed a flight of CF-18 jet fighters for air policing missions over eastern Europe.
Canada has pledged 3,400 more military personnel — soldiers, sailors and aircrew — to NATO's response force. It's not known how many of them would be committed to NATO's "reset" security presence.
A woman with a child evacuates from a residential building damaged by shelling in Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 16, 2022. (State Emergency Service of Ukraine/Reuters)
Appearing on CBC's Power & Politics on Wednesday, Defence Minister Anita Anand offered little clarity.
The minister did say that she's bringing forward "aggressive options" to cabinet that could see Canadian defence spending hit NATO's two per cent GDP target, exceed it — or fall short of it.
"My role is to bring forward a number of different options for our government to consider," Anand said. In preparing spending recommendations for cabinet, federal officials routinely present ministers with three options.
During his recent tour of Europe and consultations with allies, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau refused to commit to higher defence spending. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said "defence spending is something that we have to look at carefully."
'We're ready to do more,' Trudeau says
Speaking at a joint announcement with Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Wednesday, Trudeau said his government has heard Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky's pleas to do more.
"We've continually said we're ready to do more and we're working every day to support more," said Trudeau, adding that there are "large conversations going on around NATO."
Trudeau said he will attend next week's emergency meeting at NATO headquarters, where leaders will "further talk about the decisions we take as an alliance as to how to best support Ukraine and protect the lives of people in Ukraine and around the world."
WATCH: Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky pleads with Canada for more help
Zelensky pleads for more help from Canada as Trudeau blacklisted by Russia
Much of the conversation among alliance leaders is likely to turn on whether the significant increase in troops will be permanent or temporary.
Latvian President Egils Levits said Sunday that NATO should establish more permanent bases in the Baltic region — something that would violate a nearly 25-year-old treaty between the West and Russia which pledged the alliance would not have fixed bases in the region.
Stoltenberg argued Wednesday that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has made the agreement mostly irrelevant and NATO needs more troops on top of the 40,000 already in the region.
"That is exactly what we're tasking the commanders to provide advice on — how to reset our deterrence and defence, and we will do what is necessary," he said.
Stoltenberg said the treaty with Russia "has a clear reference to 'in the current security environment,' back in 1997.
"We are not 'in the current security environment' today. We're in a totally different security environment."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-weapons-ukraine-misuse-1.6386109
Experts warn that Canadian weapons shipped to Ukraine could end up in the wrong hands
Weapons being supplied to Ukraine now could be seized by the Russian military or end up on the black market
And with shipments of Canadian weapons still due to arrive in Ukraine, some are warning that parts of those shipments could end up on the black market or be turned against the Ukrainian people by the Russian military or local paramilitary groups.
"There is the real threat that the Ukrainian government can potentially not control all of these weapons," said Kelsey Gallagher, a researcher with Project Ploughshares, a Canadian non-government disarmament group.
"They could end up anywhere."
Since the start of the Russian invasion, Canada has pledged military aid to Ukraine valued in the tens of millions of dollars. The promised aid includes anti-tank systems, rockets, handguns, machine-guns and ammunition.
Those weapons are being provided exclusively to Ukraine's ministry of defence and its armed forces — but experts say it's impossible to know for certain where those weapons might eventually end up.
While Russia has escalated its attacks across Ukraine in recent days, the Ukrainian military has so far managed to fight off Russian advances on most of its largest cities, leaving the outcome of the war entirely uncertain.
"We cannot exclude entirely the possibility that some of that weaponry will end up in the wrong hands," said Costanza Musu, a University of Ottawa professor specializing in international security.
Musu described how Western weapons shipments to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Libya went missing or were misused in the past.
Just last year, the Taliban seized stockpiles of U.S. weapons after the group overthrew the Afghan government.
The chaos that followed the 2011 Libyan civil war resulted in the spread of weapons across Africa. Some of those weapons went to the terrorist groups Boko Haram and al-Qaeda via the black market, the United Nations has said.
Musu said Canada and Western allies appear to have reached the same conclusion — that the need to help Ukraine defend itself outweighs the risk of Western weapons being misused.
"There are not that many alternatives," Musu said. "What most governments have felt is that the only thing they can do to shift the odds a little bit … is to support Ukraine militarily."
What could happen to weapons in Ukraine?
There are many possible outcomes for the weapons being sent to Ukraine by Canada and NATO allies, although nearly all of them include the risk of materiel going missing.
"Whenever this conflict does subside … these weapons aren't just going to go 'poof' and disappear," Gallagher said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that he would welcome the donation of captured "Western-made" weapons to Russian-backed militant groups in Eastern Ukraine.
"Of course I support the possibility of giving these to the military units of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics," Putin said on March 11.
The Kremlin specifically listed anti-tank systems — which Canada is providing to Ukraine — among the weapons that could be handed over to those groups. It's not clear if any Western weapons have been captured by Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that he will supply captured Western weapons to the militaries of two breakaway regions in Eastern Ukraine. (Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool/The Associated Press)
Gallagher also said he worries about paramilitary groups now operating in Ukraine, some of them linked to far-right extremism.
"I do think that surging huge amounts of weapons into Ukraine, where there might not be the capacity to fully absorb them and to ensure that they're going into the hands they're supposed to be going, could in the long run be a disservice to the Ukrainian people and civilians in the region," he said.
A drawn-out conflict could also lead to Canadian weapons turning up on Ukraine's small-arms black market, described by the Global Organized Crime Index as one of the largest in Europe.
What Canada is doing to keep track of its weapons
In a statement to CBC News, the Department of National Defence said only that its military donations to Ukraine "are controlled with end users certificates provided by the MoD of Ukraine."
Those certificates typically stipulate who is allowed to use a weapon and for what. The government did not provide specific details about those agreements.
Canada also has responsibilities as a party to the Arms Trade Treaty, which governs the international trade in weapons.
The treaty would require that Canada conduct a thorough risk assessment before sending weapons to Ukraine.
A spokesperson for Defence Minister Anita Anand told CBC News that Canada conducted an assessment that included "the risks of an arms transfer."
Anand's office also said Canada's years-long mission to train more than 33,000 Ukrainian soldiers will help to ensure the weapons are properly used.
"This relationship has proven to be valuable in our work to supply Ukraine with military aid," said department spokesperson Daniel Minden.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-black-list-trudeau-joly-anand-1.6385573
Russia puts Trudeau, foreign affairs and defence ministers on its 'black list'
Effective today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is barred from entering Russia
The other federal party leaders — interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Green Party parliamentary leader Elizabeth May — have been told they can't set foot on Russian soil.
Have a question or something to say? CBC News is live in the comments now.
Hundreds of MPs from all parties and leaders of various Ukrainian-Canadian groups — including Alexandra Chyczij, the president of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) — have also been put on Russia's black list.
The move is a response to Canada's aggressive stance toward Russia following that country's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
Along with other Western powers, Canada has levied sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin, his close political allies, senior government leaders and the billionaire oligarchs who control Russian industry and other entities abroad.
Canada and allies like the U.K. also have led the charge to essentially disconnect Russian financial institutions from the global economy while restricting Russia's exports and imposing steep tariffs on its imports.
The effects have been devastating for the Russian economy but Putin's troops have only pushed further into Ukraine since the onset of sanctions and tariffs, shelling major cities and killing thousands.
In an address to Canada's Parliament Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Trudeau and Canada for its contributions to this point — Canada has sent lethal aid, including ammunition. He also urged Canadian leaders to contribute to a no-fly zone to shut down Ukrainian airspace to Russian warplanes.
In a statement, the Russian foreign ministry said it was banning so many Canadians now because "official Ottawa" has "Russophobic rage."
"This step is forced and taken in response to the outrageous hostility of the current Canadian regime, which has tested our patience for so long. Every Russophobic attack, be it attacks on Russian diplomatic missions, airspace closures, or Ottawa's actual severing of bilateral economic ties to the detriment of Canadian interests, will inevitably receive a decisive and not necessarily symmetrical rebuff," the ministry said in a Russian post.
(There have been no reported "attacks" on Russian diplomatic missions but rather peaceful protests in front of the country's embassy in Ottawa.)
In a statement, a spokesperson for Trudeau said the prime minister was not bothered by the new Canadian additions to the Russian black list.
"The only response from Russia that we're interested in is an immediate end to the illegal, unnecessary war in Ukraine. Until then, Canada and our allies will continue imposing crippling sanctions on Putin and his enablers in Russia and Belarus," the spokesperson said.
WATCH | Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly on the possibility of supplying Ukraine with military planes
Asked about being barred by Russia, Joly said she was "not surprised" and she "won't back down" in the face of Putin's aggression.
"I think what we need to do is continue — every day, every week — to announce sanctions. We know we have to do more and we know that our sanctions must really target Putin himself, which we have done," Joly said.
Russia banned Freeland in 2014
This isn't the first time Russia has banned Canadian officials. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, a former financial journalist who lived and worked in Moscow for years, was secretly added to the black list in 2014 after Canada and other Western countries imposed sanctions on some Russian entities following Putin's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed in 2017 that Freeland and a dozen other Canadian officials would be banned from Russia until Canada lifted similar restrictions on Russian officials.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland holds the hand of an infant as she speaks with Ukrainian refugees in Warsaw, Poland on March 10, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
After Moscow imposed sanctions on her, Freeland, a frequent Putin critic, posted on social media that she considered it "an honour to be on Putin's sanction list."
Last year, Russia also banned Justice Minister David Lametti, RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc and a number of government officials — including the then-top bureaucrat at the Department of National Defence, Jody Thomas.
That ban came after Canada imposed sanctions on nine high-ranking Russian officials for "gross and systematic human rights abuses," including the attempted assassination and subsequent jailing of popular opposition figure Alexey Navalny. Navalny, one of Putin's main political opponents, was poisoned in 2020 with the nerve agent Novichok.
In addition to banning Trudeau, Joly and Anand Tuesday, Russia also added U.S. President Joe Biden, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden's son Hunter, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, CIA chief William Burns and White House press secretary Jen Psaki to the black list.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukrainian-russia-peace-talks-1.6384782
Many Ukrainians now believe they can defeat Russia's army, complicating diplomatic negotiations
Officials and former Ukrainian ambassador to Canada say they have little hope negotiations will bring peace
It quoted prominent Russian Duma deputy Leonid Slutsky as saying peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have made "considerable progress" and that "documents could be signed" within days.
In response, Ukrainian negotiators said they sensed a shift in the utterly unfounded Russian position of its "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine. They also said they sensed that their own demands were finally being listened to by the Russian officials on the other side of the table.
But in interviews with CBC News, Ukrainian leaders and one former Ukrainian diplomat are putting little faith in this current round of talks to stop the war.
Instead, they believe Russian statements that negotiations are progressing are, at best, disingenuous — and are more likely an effort to deflect failure to secure a ceasefire onto Ukraine.
A charred Russian tank and captured tanks are seen in the Sumy region of Ukraine on March 7. (REUTERS)
'Everyone in Ukraine wants peace'
They also fear it will take another lengthy period of intense warfare, with a high number of civilian casualties, before the Kremlin is ready to make a deal that Ukraine could accept.
"Listen, I think Putin was very clear when he explained that he just does not accept the idea of Ukraine," said Andriy Shevchenko, a former Ukrainian MP who served as Ukraine's ambassador in Ottawa for six years, until 2021.
He told CBC News that most Ukrainians see Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of aggression against their nation as an effort to destroy the Ukrainian identity.
"I think he cannot acknowledge any chance for Ukraine being a sovereign nation, deciding for itself what kind of future it wants to have," Shevchenko said. "Everyone in Ukraine again badly wants peace, but I think our expectations for these negotiations are very low at the moment."
Shevchenko set up the Ukraine Media Centre in Lviv to further international coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC News)
Shevchenko spoke to CBC News in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, where he is organizing an international media centre to help share Ukrainian perspectives about the war with the rest of the world.
Despite the danger, he continues to travel back and forth to the capital, Kyiv, where his wife is a TV presenter and reports on Ukraine's defence.
"We are dealing with a man [Putin] who is absolutely obsessed with historical delusions and hallucinations, and I think it's just a waste of time trying to figure out what exactly he wants," Shevchenko said.
Until now, the public position taken by Russian negotiators has been to demand Ukraine's unconditional surrender, along with the removal of Volodymyr Zelensky as president.
They have also indicated that any future Ukrainian government would have to change its constitution to prohibit it from joining organizations like the European Union or military alliances such as NATO.
The aftermath of Russian artillery shelling on a residential area in Mariupol where a rocket hit a house, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is seen in this screengrab from a video uploaded on social media on March 10. (Armed Forces of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS)
Russia expected a swift military strike: U.S.
Few people outside of the Kremlin, however, know exactly what Putin's next steps might be. The country's decision to criminalize publishing information contradictory to the Russian government's position on the war has made it extraordinarily difficult for media to access to it.
American intelligence officials, however, believe Russia's original plan was to stage a lightning military strike on the capital Kyiv, capture or kill the Ukrainian president and replace him with a Russian-friendly leader.
Almost three weeks after the invasion, however, Russia's main military thrust on the capital appears to have stalled.
Beyond Kyiv, its troops have failed to capture most of their key objectives, although the loss of civilian lives and the destruction inflicted on its cities has been horrendous.
Much of Kharkiv — a city formerly of 1.3 million people — is in ruins.
Mykolaiv and Mariupol to the south have badly damaged by bombing, although Ukrainian soldiers and civilians remaining inside those cities continue to prevent Russian troops from taking over.
Russia's State Duma member Leonid Slutsky in Moscow on March 14. (REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina)
Ukraine claims it has killed 12,000 Russian soldiers, destroyed almost 400 tanks and shot down 160 aircraft and helicopters, although the Pentagon has estimated its casualties as between 2,000 and 4,000.
While none of those claims have been independently verified, even if the actual Russian losses are a third of what Ukraine says they are they would still represent a humiliating setback for a military that was once touted as one of the strongest in the world.
Still, for all of the efforts of Ukraine's army, Russian forces have managed to push deep into Ukraine's southern areas, capturing territory around the Sea of Azov and linking up to form what's known as a land bridge with separatist enclaves of Donbas and Luhansk.
WATCH | How the invasion has devastated Kyiv:
Kyiv's mayor on the 'nightmare' of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
In any peace negotiation, experts told CBC News that it's difficult to picture Russia giving back the Ukrainian territory it has seized — and yet, for Ukraine's Zelensky, allowing Russia to keep the land would be toxic to a population that's furious with Russia for launching this war.
"I think the price that we have been paying is so tremendous, is so huge, and we are not ready to give up our territory and our people," Shevchenko said.
Alexander Lanoszka, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Waterloo, says Russia's behaviour over the past few days indicates the Kremlin leadership may no longer believe its military can accomplish a takeover of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian side may be correct at sensing some weakness.
Maksym Kozytskyy, the governor of the Lviv oblast, or administrative region, says he hopes the West will bolster Ukraine's position in its peace talks with Russia. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC News)
Why Ukraine might hold out on a deal
Russia "is taking battlefield losses; it's making unusual requests to China [for military help] as well as asking for Syrian mercenaries and Belarussian military participation, all of which suggests that there's a major lack of confidence on the Russian side that they can pull this thing off," Lanoszka said.
But he says Ukraine also runs the risk of overestimating its bargaining position and holding out for a more favourable offer — rather than the first that might end the war.
"If you see your adversary suffering and moderating their war aims accordingly, then that in turn encourages you to escalate your own war aims and to take the fight even further," Lanoszka said.
In the aftermath of the 2014 popular revolution in Ukraine that dumped a Russian-leaning government for one that was more pro-European, Russia seized the Ukraine-controlled Crimean Peninsula. The Kremlin also triggered and subsequently fuelled an eight-year war between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government in the Donetsk region.
Many Ukrainians now talk openly about having their army not just push Russian troops back to where they were when their invasion began on Feb. 24, but to recapture the other Russian-controlled regions too, especially Crimea.
"They're angry and they have every right to be," Lanoszka said. "But that anger could obfuscate what could be done reasonably; I don't think Russia is going to concede Crimea."
In other interviews, Ukrainian officials refuse to directly address what they're prepared to give up in order to get a ceasefire.
"We will accept only one thing: the victory of the Ukrainian people over this horde," said Maksym Kozytskyy, the governor of Lviv oblast, as Ukraine's administrative regions, or provinces, are called.
Let them get out of Ukraine, and only then will we talk to them."
His region, along with the city at the centre of it in western Ukraine, was hit with several Russian airstrikes in the past week, including a devastating attack on a Ukrainian military base that used to host trainers from NATO countries, including Canada.
There were 35 people killed and more than 150 injured in the attack on the Yavoriv training base early Sunday morning.
Expectations of NATO allies
Rather than discussing possible compromises, however, Kozytskky told CBC News that Western nations should be asking how they can do more to improve Ukraine's negotiating position.
"The whole world overestimated the Russians' influence and their power — the Ukrainian army has demonstrated that," he said. "So let's talk honestly — if the West will help us with weapons, in time, our position during negotiations will be much stronger."
Shevchenko, the former ambassador, says Zelensky's team is correct to pursue a negotiated settlement with Russia and since the country is firmly behind him, the president will have tremendous credibility if he asks Ukrainians to make sacrifices for the cause of peace.
At the same time, he says, he doesn't expect that time will come any day soon.
"What we do know is that Russia and Putin will stop only when and where we will stop them."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Gold at $10,000? Death of the 40-year bull market in bonds? What’s next for the global financial system after Russia’s central bank gets cancelled
Critical information for the U.S. trading day
In this photo released by the White House, US President Joe Biden (C) meets with the National Security Council on the Ukraine-Russia crisis, in the situation Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 24, 2022.
About the Author
Steven Goldstein is based in London and responsible for MarketWatch's coverage of financial markets in Europe, with a particular focus on global macro and commodities. Previously, he was Washington bureau chief, directing MarketWatch's economic, political and regulatory coverage. Follow Steve on Twitter: @MKTWgoldstein.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-biden-announce-additional-ukraine-aid
Stocks Slide After Biden To Send Drones To Ukraine As Part Of Aid Package
Update (1433ET): After some confusion earlier, the US has confirmed that "tactical" switchblade drones being sent to Ukraine will be armed, according to Politico.
During Biden's Wednesday speech, he accused Russia of committing "atrocities" in Ukraine, and commended President Volodomyr Zelensky for a "convincing" speech to US Congress earlier in the day.
In addition to the armed drones, the US will provide assistance obtaining a longer-range anti-aircraft system, 800 stinger anti-aircraft missiles, 9,000 anti-tank missiles and 7,000 small arms - plus 20 million rounds of ammunition, according to a White House statement.
* * *
Update:
*BIDEN SAYS U.S. WILL PROVIDE UKRAINE WITH ARMED DRONES
*BIDEN: WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL $800M IN UKRAINE SECURITY AID
Stocks turned down sharply following Biden's comments.
* * *
President Biden is expected to announce an additional $800 million in military aid for Ukraine, which would bring the total US support up to $1 billion in the last week alone, and more than $2 billion since Biden took office, according to USA Today.
Biden's speech comes hours after Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky received a standing ovation for a short virtual speech to members of Congress, in which he pleaded for the US to establish a no-fly zone.
Watch:
More via USA Today:
The $800 million will mean more than $2 billion in U.S. aid has gone to Ukraine since Biden entered office. The money has paid for an assortment of military equipment including 600 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 2,600 Javelin anti-armor systems, nearly 40 million rounds of small arms ammunition, 200 grenade launchers and ammunition, 200 shotguns and 200 machine guns, according to the White House.
Hours earlier, Zelensky invoked 9/11, MLK, and Pearl Harbor in an emotional plea to the West to do more to stop the Russian invasion.
"I am addressing President Biden, you are the leader of the nation, your nation. I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace," Zelensky said. "Right now, the destiny of our country is being decided, the destiny of our people."
"I call on you to do more," he added.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/where-are-russian-cyberattacks-1.6384951
U.S. officials wonder: Where are Russia's much-feared cyberattacks?
Putin has bragged about his nation's digital warriors and the U.S. is bracing for their arrival
There's a particularly unnerving scenario for a Russian cyberattack casting its shadow in the head of an American politician who oversees intelligence issues.
Mark Warner leads the Senate intelligence committee, which gets him regular intelligence briefings and better-than-average access to U.S. state secrets.
The Virginia Democrat has been voicing his concern at recent public events about the risk of a cyberattack striking a NATO country, potentially broadening the Ukraine war.
He's also a former tech executive and the scenarios he's raised go something like this: A computer virus hits a Polish hospital and Polish patients die. Speaking at a think-tank event Monday, he wondered aloud whether that would trigger NATO's mutual-defence agreement under Article 5.
Another possible scenario he raised is a hack that could shut down traffic lights, resulting in American soldiers getting into a vehicle accident.
In the meantime he's been watching and waiting, and now he's wondering: Where are the Russian hackers?
Sen. Mark Warner, left, seen greeting the director of the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency during a Senate hearing last week. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)
That question of why Russia hasn't unleashed its notorious digital warriors in the current conflict over Ukraine was a prevailing theme Monday at a panel Warner participated in during an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"I have questioned our leaders: 'Why haven't we seen the real [Russian hacking] A Team?'" Warner said, echoing comments he made last week at a Senate hearing.
"I'm still relatively amazed they have not matched the level of maliciousness that their cyber-arsenal includes. Will we see that in the coming days? I think that remains a possibility."
He noted that before the invasion, hackers brought down the websites of Ukraine banks and government offices, but they used relatively simple data-wiping malware.
He said we still haven't seen so-called worms like those in the devastating WannaCry and NotPetya cyberattacks a few years back, which burrowed through computer systems around the world and even struck hospitals.
Russian state- and non-state-affiliated hackers have been blamed for some of the most disruptive cyberattacks. One was the so-called NotPetya trojan-horse attack of 2017 that caused damage in numerous countries, including causing a container backlog at this port in Mumbai, India. (Rajanish Kakade/AP)
'Not out of the woods yet'
Warner's not alone in wondering why Russia's cyber realm has been so quiet. After all, Russian President Vladimir Putin once compared his country's hackers to artists, likening them to painters who wake up inspired to defend their motherland.
So far those artisans of digital mayhem haven't caused any obvious disruption to Western computer systems, whether they be non-state actors like those Putin alluded to, or from his state security agencies.
A former top U.S. cybersecurity official said there's been widespread astonishment that a country renowned for hacking hasn't deployed that weapon. At least not yet.
"I think everyone's been somewhat surprised," said Chris Painter, head of the Global Forum on Cyber Expertise Foundation and a former official in the U.S. State Department and White House.
"But I don't think we're anywhere near out of the woods yet."
A man holds an effigy of Putin during a protest against Russia's invasion of Ukraine outside the White House this month in Washington, D.C. (Sarah Silbiger/Reuters)
Greg Rattray, the head of cyber-defence company Next Peak LLC, also wondered why we haven't seen non-state-led ransomware attacks against Western organizations.
These attacks, Rattray said, are still occurring at normal volumes. "Maybe even less than normal [volumes]," he said during Monday's Center for Strategic and International Studies event.
Gen. Paul Nakasone, who leads the U.S. Defence Department's Cyber Command, told a Senate intelligence hearing last week that there are four categories of attack he's worried about.
One is a spreading-malware attack like the one Warner referenced. Another is ransomware, like the blackmail attack on a pipeline last year that caused havoc at U.S. gas stations. A third involves proxies, where non-state hackers get a green-light from the Russian government to conduct an attack. And, finally, he worries about attacks on an Eastern European ally.
A specific target not mentioned at that Senate hearing was banks; the New York Post, however, has reported that financial companies are seeing more attacks lately, but have repelled them so far.
Nakasone said he's still concerned.
"We're 15 days into this conflict," he said. "By no means are we sitting back and taking this casually."
The U.S. blamed Russian non-state actors for the attack on the Colonial pipeline last year that caused chaos at gas stations, including this lineup of cars in North Carolina. (Jonathan Drake/Reuters)
So why haven't we seen them yet?
Nakasone offered two explanations for why we haven't yet seen widespread technological disruptions as part of the Russian response: It's possible Russia made a strategic choice not to launch cyberattacks yet, but he also credited work the U.S. did with Ukraine before the invasion to patch up digital vulnerabilities.
Painter said it could be a multitude of factors — Russia could be waiting for a specific moment, or it could be reluctant to damage Ukrainian equipment it hopes to inherit if it successfully replaces the government. Also, he said, Russian cyber-operators could easily be swamped right now, tied up with spying on Ukrainian allies.
U.S. President Joe Biden said he warned Putin not to attack American infrastructure, including at this meeting in Switzerland last June. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
Ukrainian defences also deserve respect, Painter said, noting the country has much better protection than it did in 2015 when its power grid was hacked and shut down.
At the end of the day, he warned, it's impossible to stop every attack from a dedicated adversary like Russia: "You could be very good at defence — they're still going to get in," he said.
"That's what we haven't seen. And I do think we will see that. That it's being held in reserve [by Russia to be used later]."
Rattray raised an entirely different possibility: that, as capable as Russia's hackers are, they might not be quite as masterful as their reputation.
U.S. capabilities a possible deterrent
What's also true is that hacking carries risks for Russia, too.
U.S. President Joe Biden has been warning Putin, including in a face-to-face meeting, that the U.S. would respond to hacks on vital infrastructure.
The U.S. has spent months conducting drills for hacking scenarios, with the president briefed on a range of potential American counter-responses.
Some of the options presented to Biden, according to NBC News, are unprecedented and devastating: disrupting internet connectivity in Russia, shutting off electrical power, and tampering with railroad switches to make it harder to resupply Russian troops in Ukraine.
A January cyberattack on the website of Ukraine's foreign ministry earlier this year left this warning message in Ukrainian, Russian and Polish. The attack wiped data but was far less devastating than so-called trojan-horse attacks that can spread and cause widescale damage. (Valentyn Ogirenko/Illustration/Reuters)
Painter seriously doubts the U.S. would go that far.
"We're not going to do things like turn off the lights in Moscow," he said Monday. "We're not gonna have this disproportionate thing where we go after civilian targets in Russia. We're just not going to do that. Nor should we."
He also poured cold water on Ukraine's idea to kick Russia off the internet and its .ru domains. He said the U.S. doesn't want to see rival nations start a competing internet any more than it wants a competing international financial system.
Rattray agreed that U.S. cyberattacks against Russia could be seen as escalatory and smash norms in a way that could make conflicts more dangerous.
U.S. releasing secret intelligence
The U.S. has already developed a non-lethal online tactic in this war: It has repeatedly released secret intelligence, spreading word of Russian invasion plans.
Warner said it's no accident so many countries sided with the U.S. and Ukraine including in a lopsided vote at the United Nations.
A laptop displays code for the Petya malware virus, according to representatives of the Ukrainian cyber security firm ISSP, seen in Kyiv in 2017. (Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)
For years Russia outwitted its rivals in online information campaigns, but he said that releasing intel in real time has helped the U.S. pre-emptively thwart Russian disinformation and primed democracies to respond.
"It really has left Putin exposed as being the absolute culprit in starting this war," Warner said Monday.
He also applauded Congress for passing cybersecurity legislation he sponsored, which requires companies operating key U.S. infrastructure to quickly report any cyber-hacks.
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Nicholas Carlson and his boss can trust the fact that I know the Zero Hedge chickenshits are not alone
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Amos"<david.raymond.amos@gmail.com>
To: "mcknight. gisele"<mcknight.Gisele@dailygleaner.
< bowie.adam@dailygleaner.com>; <t.j.burke@gnb.ca>; "Byron Prior"
< alltrue@nl.rogers.com>; "webo"<webo@xplornet.com>; <David.ALWARD@gnb.ca>;
"carl. davies"<carl.davies@gnb.ca>; "PoliticsNB"<PoliticsNB@hotmail.com>;
"nb. premier"<nb.premier@gmail.com>; "nbpolitico"<nbpolitico@gmail.com>;
"gypsy-blog"<gypsy-blog@hotmail.com>; "Richard Harris"
< injusticecoalition@hotmail.
"dohertylaw"<dohertylaw@rogers.com>; "tomp. young"
< tomp.young@atlanticradio.
Ray"<deanr0032@hotmail.com>; <william.elliott@rcmp-grc.gc.
Wagener"<producer@onsecondthought.tv>; "KAROL KAROLAK"
< karol_karolak@rogers.com>; "Mohawk Nation News"<kahentinetha2@yahoo.com>;
"jacques_poitras"<jacques_poitras@cbc.ca>; "Robert. Jones"
< Robert.Jones@cbc.ca>; "Edith. Cody-Rice"<Edith.Cody-Rice@cbc.ca>
Cc: "mclaughlin.heather"<mclaughlin.heather@
Foran"<John.Foran@gnb.ca>; "dan. bussieres"<dan.bussieres@gnb.ca>;
< danny.copp@fredericton.ca>
Sent: Friday, April 24, 2009 11:32 PM
Subject: For the record the Irving newsrag in Fat Fred City knows that the
noname "Boogie Loogie" chickenshit is not mean old me.
I must ask is this their way of taking a cheap shop at me byway of the
comments? Relax I am not offended. I am laughing at your petty
nonsense.
The chickenshit "Boogie Loogie" is correct you greedy fools are
basically arguing about the colour of the drapes while the house burns
down around us all.
It should be obvious that I am not this arsehole anyway I do not
employ such snobby words as this noname no balls character "Boogie
Loogie" does. Everybody and his dog knows that I am far more crude and
rude than that just as any justifiably pissed off Maritimer should be
in a purportedly "JUST" Democracy.
You all know that I only post comments and email in my true name and
that the Irvings banned me long ago just like the CBC, Chucky,
Spinksey and the Gypsy and nearly everyone else has. I suspect
Chucky's old buddy the Iron Horse of a fraidy cat lawyer will step up
to the plate and save the day one again on befalf of the French
welfare bum with five brains and not one lick of common sense. Lawyer
like that love the limelight and rest assured Robert Jones of CBC will
focas this little circus bigtime once again.
Now I have a question who the hell is this Tyler Durden arsehole that
Irvings love so much? I don't find him in the Moncton phone book but I
do notice that he posts a lot of bullshit everywhere. Does his real
name start with Ritchie or is he some other chickenshit spin doctor?
Veritas Vincit
David Raymond Amos
http://dailygleaner.
Province's support of active living questionedPublished Friday April 24th,
2009
By ADAM BOWIE
bowie.adam@dailygleaner.com
21 Comment(s)
About 60 protesters rallied on the lawn of the legislature Thursday to
demand the provincial government reverse a decision to cut winter
services at Mactaquac Provincial Park.
STEPHEN MACGILLIVRAY PHOTO
Park decision decried: Protesters don’t want the Mactaquac Provincial
Park closed in the winter. Tourism Minister Stuart Jamieson talks with
protester Jennifer Beckley of Keswick on Thursday.
STEPHEN MACGILLIVRAY PHOTO
Under arrest: Blogger Charles LeBlanc, centre, was arrested Thursday
outside the legislature in Fredericton. LeBlanc is escorted to a
waiting police car by Sgt. Andrew MacDonald, right, and an
unidentified officer.
STEPHEN MACGILLIVRAY PHOTO
See Adam's Story Keep our Park open in the winter: Protestors walk to
the New Brunswick Legislature in Fredericton on Thursday to protest to
proposed closure of Mactaquac provincial Park in the winter months.
Here making a snowman from snow brought from the park from left are:
Kyla Anderson, 9; : Aaron Grey, 7; Brianna MacMinn, 5, and Larissa
Grey, 9.
The Liberal government said it would cut winter activities as a
cost-saving measure when it released this year's provincial budget.
Demonstrators chanted "Save Our Park," waved homemade signs and
several children built a snowman - using snow from the park - in front
of the building's front steps.
Norah Profit-Grey said she can't understand why the province would
want to make it more difficult for people to use the park.
She said the decision will make it harder for schools to schedule
winter outings.
"The school district sends children from basically every school up to
the Mactaquac park for different educational programs. If it's closed
in the wintertime, all of those programs will be cut," she said.
"This is the perfect place to teach the kids about the outdoors. We're
constantly striving to be greener and get them more active, but here
we are taking away this valuable resource."
She said the decision is out of step with the province's recent
wellness campaign and will also make life more difficult for families
who can't afford to make frequent winter outings.
"We can't afford to take the kids to Crabbe Mountain every week to go
skiing, so all of our winter activities are based in Mactaquac,"
Profit-Grey said.
Tourism and Parks Minister Stuart Jamieson said the cuts won't mean
the park is completely closed, but he agreed that services will be
reduced.
"We will have the park open on a small basis," he said.
"For people (to have) a place to park and go skiing and snowshoeing
and sliding, but we're not going to groom the trails."
And the cuts will impact nearly all of the park's employees - forcing
many to accept seasonal work or an early retirement package.
Jamieson met with protesters at the end of the rally Thursday. He said
he's been speaking with representatives from local service districts
about other possible scenarios.
He said it may be possible for community groups to find the money to
keep some winter services going.
"I'm interested in seeing if there is some group that would be
interested in facilitating a small operation there," he said.
"We'd help them out to do that."
Rally organizer Barb Hoyt said that was a disappointing response.
"I just don't see why they can't work, within government, to do this," she
said.
"You know, $600,000 isn't a lot of money. They probably spend that on
things they don't really need. I really don't think it's a great
decision."
Jessica McPhee said it seems like the province made a hasty move.
"I think a lot of people think they said, 'Oh, there's an economic
downturn. What are we going to do?'" she said.
"And they took the most obvious places to cut money - not necessarily
the best. If they had taken a little time, they could have found some
better alternatives."
Protesters waved skis, sleds and crazy carpets to represent the many
winter activities that could be affected by the budget cuts.
Kirk MacDonald, Tory MLA for York North, and Jamieson clashed over
cuts to the provincial park in the legislature during question period
Thursday.
MacDonald said 19 employees will be affected by the cuts and many have
more than 30 years of service.
"Is this fair? Is this how we reward people who have given 30 years of
service to this province?''
Jamieson said the government is concerned about the employees and his
staff has been meeting with them.
"For those who want full-time employment, we are looking at other
departments in which to place them," he said.
"We have a number of people at Mactaquac who can retire, and several
have indicated that they would do that," said Jamieson.
Some people who are staying on seasonally will be reduced to 40 weeks
of employment and others to 26 weeks as seasonal employees, he said.
"Nobody is losing their job," said Jamieson."
MacDonald introduced a motion Thursday afternoon calling on the
government to look at ways to work with employees to increase revenues
and decrease expenses so that Mactaquac park can stay open year-round.
The motion was amended several times by both sides and eventually
passed unanimously.
Meanwhile, outside the legislature, the Fredericton Police Force
arrested blogger Charles LeBlanc during the rally.
LeBlanc has been banned from the property since 2006.
Const. Ralph Currie confirmed that police arrested a man during the
rally, but he wouldn't name the individual.
He said the man was released with a promise to appear in court at a
later date. Police are investigating the incident, but Currie said the
man could face charges related to trespassing and mischief.
With files by reporter Stephen Llewellyn
Comments (21)
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Showing 21 comments
Charles LeBlanc is one of the only free press operations publishing
out of Fredericton - Irving media have their obvious bias and CBC are
hacked appart every budget with federal kleptocrats pulling their
strings.
Are New Brunswickers going to stand down as the only defense of
democracy and free society is thrown in jail?
I guess that depends on how many still trust Irving to bring them the
news.
Daniel Fitzgerald, Nijmegen on 24/04/09 07:12:00 AM ADT
Mischief = trying to spread truth across New Brunswick via a Blog.
Smalltown NB, New Brunswick on 24/04/09 07:26:35 AM ADT
The other day Charles LeBlanc posted a picture of Public Safety
Minister John Foran. Then he put a cartoon bubble beside his head
which read: "I don't give a darn how those kids died!" The reference
is to the student basketball players from Bathurst.
I believe LeBlanc's blog raises many great issues in the Fredericton
community, but it also has items like the one mentioned above. To me,
that ruins any credibility he would like to have.
If he wants to be a serious blogger, he has to create some guidelines
and stick to them. His personal attacks can sometimes go to far.
There's a way to criticize people.
News Watcher, NB on 24/04/09 07:50:05 AM ADT
His cartoon is no different than any other political cartoon.
It is asinine that he was arrested, again. The province hates him
because he speaks the truth, and the government just doesn't want to
hear it (Liberal or PC).
JustRight OfCenter, Fredericton area on 24/04/09 08:22:34 AM ADT
Let's hope the squeaky wheel gets the oil. If there are this many
people who use it regularly, leave it open. You can't remove every
service just because not every person doesn't use it. Some of these
cuts are just ridiculous.
Voice of Reason, Everywhere on 24/04/09 08:56:09 AM ADT
Charles Leblanc was banned from the Legislature grounds and he is well
aware of the ban. he has flaunted it many times and it caught up to
him. The Police were simply doing their jobs.
Charles Leblanc must now face the court and he has supplied all the
evidence the Crown needs to prove its case on his blog. He has handed
the Crown the case on a silver platter.
One outcome may even be a court ordered ban from blogging which
honestly would be a fair sentence in this case. he's a nuisance,
yelling out of care windows at MLAs, pestering anybody in and around
the Legislature and posting unsubstantiated and libelous comments
about anyone he disagrees with on his blog,.
Tyler Durden, Moncton on 24/04/09 08:57:14 AM ADT
Mactaquac park is a wonderful place to enjoy winter recreational
sports such as snowmobiling, cross country skiing, skating, snow
shoeing and sliding. I use the park every winter for sliding. The hill
is the best in the area. I hope the government will reconsider their
decision. Recreation is bound to be the first to go during tough
economic times, it is no different in a family budget. I am sure that
a win win solution can be found if the government will be sensitive
and considerate and give it some thought. I wonder what the $600,000
cost to keep the park open translates to for each tax paying New
Brunswicker? Perhaps they can consider a small toll to enter the park
during the winter season. I wouldn't mind paying $5 per visit per car
load if it would keep the park running. Just a thought ...
Al Brideau, Fredericton on 24/04/09 09:19:29 AM ADT
There are a lot of issues with the media in this province....but to
say that Charles LeBlanc is a good replacement for them is utterly
ridiculous. Unless you like being beaten over the head with the same 3
personal vendettas and poorly drawn cartoons every two days.
JP Kirby, Fredericton on 24/04/09 10:38:11 AM ADT
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the Terms of Use.
David Akward, Fredericton on 24/04/09 11:49:50 AM ADT
This comment has been removed due to a violation of canadaeast.com's
Terms of Use, Section F. Interactive Features. Click here to review
the Terms of Use.
David Akward, Fredericton on 24/04/09 11:50:54 AM ADT
All Leblanc did was detract from the real story. He is not a
journalist. He simply posts his opinion online - just like I do here.
Most of time it is dribble if not outright falsehood.
G. Murray, Woodstock on 24/04/09 01:53:44 PM ADT
Sorry, typed dribble above instead of drivel - much like Charles my
typing doesn't always follow my brains limited instruction.........
G. Murray, Woodstock on 24/04/09 01:56:00 PM ADT
They are trying to set an example with Charles but in reality they are
creating a strong undercurrent of support for him.
The may find him to be a pain in their butt but they ain't seen
nothing yet. They claim assault and he was the one assaulted. It is
all on video so will come in handy. They are upset because Charles
lodged a complaint the day before against one of the arresting Nazis
and the Goose Stepper made it personal.
To the politicians and police of New Brunswick be warned. It is the
citizens that control you, not the other way around.
TMA
Boogie Loogie, Fredericton on 24/04/09 04:40:24 PM ADT
Gotta Agree with you G. Murray. Mr. Leblanc has not been a blogger of
anything socially relevant for years. He attends these protests/events
not to support their cause or inform but simply as a way of
shamelessly promoting himself. He does most causes..(like this one) a
disservice as they almost always end up as nothing more than platform
to to insult those he currently decides he dislikes back on his blog.
Anyone that actually believes his blog deserves anymore than a passing
glance and a shake of the head at the nonsense there in really can't
be interested in news or facts at all.
D STEWART, Fredericton on 24/04/09 04:50:51 PM ADT
To Tyler Durden, Moncton
You are wrong. His rights have been violated and any lawyer could get
him off the hook. Needless charges and a violation of this man's
rights.
If the judge does ban him from blogging I will take over. If you think
Charles was a pain in butt for the power structure of NB wait until
they have to deal with me.
I have taken on much bigger fish than NB and these chumps will know
what it is like to be in the 'real' spotlight.
TMA
Boogie Loogie, Fredericton on 24/04/09 04:55:22 PM ADT
Boogie Loogie... is that an alias for David Amos? Just curious.
Tyler Durden, Moncton on 24/04/09 05:01:28 PM ADT
He was banned. He knew he was banned and yet he continued to troll the
Legislature grounds taking pictures of himself violating the ban.
How are those facts wrong?
Tyler Durden, Moncton on 24/04/09 05:02:25 PM ADT
My name is Thomas Payne.
See my latest video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
TMA
Boogie Loogie, Fredericton on 24/04/09 05:05:35 PM ADT
So, why wait for Charles to lose his job Boogie Loogie? If your that
passionate about it start blogging. I fear that much like Mr. Leblanc
your visions of self importance also far exceed that of reality. The
only undercurrent that anyone need worry about in Fredericton is the
waters of the St. John river not the rantings of a few Leblanc
zealots.
D STEWART, Fredericton on 24/04/09 05:17:02 PM ADT
To D STEWART:
You are not completely with it are you? Rant, rave, condescend, offer
little substance, quick to criticize, good little debt slave.
All of those terms apply to you.
Spend a little time, do some investigation, you will quickly see that
your fingers are engaged but your brain is not.
Like I said, the NB power brokers are nothing but chumps, peons,
two-bit flunkies in the grand scheme of things. You fit right in with
that ilk.
Boogie Loogie, Fredericton on 24/04/09 10:30:04 PM ADT
Well Boogie Loogie if anyone would have first hand knowledge of things
of little substance it would appear to be you. Living in a world of
fantasied self importance isn't all that bad a thing as long as you
confine yourself to the odd bizarre on line commentary and remain
relatively harmless so more power to you my aberrant friend. No one
will care that much one way or the other what you have to say but of
course you are use to that anyway.
D STEWART, Fredericton on 24/04/09 11:04:35 PM ADT
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/10-signs-war-ukraine-part-great-reset
10 Signs The War In Ukraine Is Part Of The Great Reset
Welcome to the second phase of the Great Reset: war.
While the pandemic acclimatised the world to lockdowns, normalised the acceptance of experimental medications, precipitated the greatest transfer of wealth to corporations by decimating SMEs and adjusted the muscle memory of workforce operations in preparation for a cybernetic future, an additional vector was required to accelerate the economic collapse before nations can ‘Build Back Better.’
I present below several ways in which the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the next catalyst for the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset agenda, facilitated by an interconnected web of global stakeholders and a diffuse network of public-private partnerships.
1. The war between Russia and Ukraine is already causing unprecedented disruption to global supply chains, exacerbating fuel shortages and inducing chronic levels of inflation.
As geopolitical tensions morph into a protracted conflict between NATO and the Sino-Russia axis, a second contraction may plunge the economy into stagflation.
In the years ahead, the combination of subpar growth and runaway inflation will force a global economic underclass into micro-work contracts and low-wage jobs in an emerging gig economy.
Another recession will compound global resource thirst, narrow the scope for self-sufficiency and significantly increase dependence on government subsidies.
With the immiseration of a significant portion of the world’s labour force looming on the horizon, this may well be a prelude to the introduction of a Universal Basic Income, leading to a highly stratified neo-feudal order.
Therefore, the World Economic Forum’s ominous prediction that we will ‘own nothing and be happy’ by 2030 seems to be unfolding with horrifying rapidity.
2. The war’s economic fallout will lead to a dramatic downsizing of the global workforce.
The architects of the Great Reset have anticipated this trend for a number of years and will exploit this economic turbulence by propelling the role of disruptive technologies to meet global challenges and fundamentally alter traditional business patterns to keep pace with rapid changes in technology.
Like the pandemic, disaster preparedness in the age of conflict will rest significantly on the willingness to embrace specific technological innovations in the public and private spheres so that future generations can supply the labour demands of the Great Reset.
A recurring theme in Klaus Schwab’s Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is that groundbreaking technological and scientific innovations will no longer be relegated to the physical world around us but become extensions of ourselves.
He emphasises the primacy of emerging technologies in a next generation workforce and highlights the urgency to push ahead with plans to digitise several aspects of the global labour force through scalable technology based solutions.
Those spearheading the Great Reset seek to manage geopolitical risk by creating new markets which revolve around digital innovations, e-strategies, telepresence labour, Artificial Intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, the Internet of Things and the Internet of Bodies.
The breakneck speed in which AI technologies are being deployed suggest that the optimization of such technologies will initially bear on traditional industries and professions which offer a safety net for hundreds of millions of workers, such as farming, retail, catering, manufacturing and the courier industries.
However, automation in the form of robots, smart software and machine learning will not be limited to jobs which are routine, repetitive and predictable.
AI systems are on the verge of wholesale automation of various white collar jobs, particularly in areas which involve information processing and pattern recognition such as accounting, HR and middle management positions.
Although anticipating future employment trends is no easy task, it’s safe to say that the combined threat of pandemics and wars means the labour force is on the brink of an unprecedented reshuffle with technology reshaping logistics, potentially threatening hundreds of millions of blue and white collar jobs, resulting in the greatest and fastest displacement of jobs in history and foreshadowing a labour market shift which was previously inconceivable.
While it has long been anticipated that the increased use of technology in the private sector would result in massive job losses, pandemic lockdowns and the coming disruption caused by a war will speed up this process, and many companies will be left with no other option but to lay off staff and replace them with creative technological solutions merely for the survival of their businesses.
In other words, many of the jobs which will be lost in the years ahead were already moving towards redundancy and are unlikely to be recovered once the dust is settled.
3. The war has significantly reduced Europe’s reliance on the Russian energy sector and reinforced the centrality of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ‘net zero‘ emissions which lies at the heart of the Great Reset.
Policymakers marching lockstep with the Great Reset have capitalised on the tough sanctions against Russia by accelerating the shift towards ‘green’ energy and reiterating the importance of decarbonisation as part of the ‘fight against climate change’.
However, it would be very short-sighted to assume that the Great Reset is ultimately geared towards the equitable distribution of ‘green’ hydrogen and carbon-neutral synthetic fuels replacing petrol & diesel.
While UN SDGs are crucial to post-pandemic recovery, more importantly, they are fundamental to the makeover of shareholder capitalism which is now being vaunted by the Davos elites as ‘stakeholder capitalism’.
In economic terms, this refers to a system where governments are no longer the final arbiters of state policies as unelected private corporations become the de facto trustees of society, taking on the direct responsibility to address the world’s social, economic and environmental challenges through macroeconomic cooperation and a multi-stakeholder model of global governance.
Under such an economic construct, asset holding conglomerates can redirect the flow of global capital by aligning investments with the UN’s SDGs and configuring them as Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) compliant so that new international markets can be built on the disaster and misery of potentially hundreds of millions of people reeling from the economic collapse caused by war.
Therefore, the war offers a huge impetus for the governments pushing the reset to actively pursue energy independence, shape markets towards ‘green and inclusive growth’ and eventually move populations towards a cap-and-trade system, otherwise known as a carbon credit economy.
This will centralise power in the hands of stakeholder capitalists under the benevolent guise of reinventing capitalism through fairer and greener means, using deceptive slogans like ‘Build Back Better’ without sacrificing the perpetual growth imperative of capitalism.
4. Food shortages created by the war will offer a major boon to the synthetic biology industry as the convergence of digital technologies with materials science and biology will radically transform the agricultural sector and encourage the adoption of plant-based and lab-grown alternatives on a global scale.
Russia and Ukraine are both breadbaskets of the world and critical shortages in grains, fertilisers, vegetable oils and essential foodstuffs will catapult the importance of biotechnology to food security and sustainability and give birth to several imitation meat start-ups similar to ‘Impossible Foods’ which was co-funded by Bill Gates.
One can therefore expect more government regulation to usher a dramatic overhaul to industrial food production and cultivation, ultimately benefiting agribusiness and biotech investors, since food systems will be redesigned through emerging technologies to grow ‘sustainable’ proteins and CRISPR gene-edited patented crops.
5. Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) foreshadows an economic reset which will generate precisely the kind of blowback necessary for corralling large swathes of the global population into a technocratic control grid.
As several economists have opined, weaponizing SWIFT, CHIPS (The Clearing House Interbank Payments System) and the US Dollar against Russia will only spur geopolitical rivals like China to accelerate the process of de-dollarisation.
The main benefactor of economic sanctions against Russia appears to be China which can reshape the Eurasian market by encouraging member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS to bypass the SWIFT ecosystem and settle cross-border international payments in the Digital Yuan.
While the demand for cryptocurrencies will see a massive spike, this is likely to encourage many governments to increasingly regulate the sector through public blockchains and enforce a multilateral ban on decentralised cryptocurrencies.
The shift to crypto could be the dress rehearsal to eventually expedite plans for programmable money overseen by a federal regulator, leading to the greater accretion of power in the hands of a powerful global technocracy and thus sealing our enslavement to financial institutions.
I believe this war will bring currencies to parity, therefore heralding a new Bretton Woods moment which promises to transform the operation of international banking and macroeconomic cooperation through the future adoption of central bank digital currencies.
6. This war marks a major inflection point in the globalist aspiration for a new international rules-based order anchored in Eurasia.
As the ‘father of geopolitics’ Halford Mackinder opined over a century ago, the rise of every global hegemon in the past 500 years has been possible because of dominance over Eurasia. Similarly, their decline has been associated with losing control over that pivotal landmass.
This causal connection between geography and power has not gone unnoticed by the global network of stakeholders representing the WEF, many of whom have anticipated the transition to a multipolar era and return to great power competition amid America’s receding political and economic influence and a pressing need for what technocrats call smart globalisation.
While America tries desperately to cling to its superpower status, China’s economic ascent and Russia’s regional ambitions threaten to upend the strategic axial points of Eurasia (Western Europe and Asia Pacific).
The region in which America previously enjoyed uncontested hegemony is no longer impervious to cracks and we may be witnessing a changing of the guard which dramatically alters the calculus of global force projection.
Although China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has the potential to unify the world-island (Asia, Africa and Europe) and cause a tectonic shift in the locus of global power, the recent invasion of Ukraine will have far-reaching consequences for China-Europe rail freight.
The Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that Ukraine could function as the BRI’s gateway to Europe. Therefore, we cannot ignore China’s huge stake in the recent tensions over Ukraine, nor can we ignore NATO’s underlying ambition to check China’s rise in the region by limiting the sale of Ukrainian assets to China and doing everything in its capacity to thwart The Modern Silk Road.
As sanctions push Russia towards consolidating bilateral ties with China and fully integrating with the BRI, a Pan-Eurasian trading bloc may be the realignment which forces a shared governance of the global commons and a reset to the age of US exceptionalism.
7. With speculation mounting over the war’s long term impact on bilateral trade flows between China and Europe, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will catapult Israel – a leading advocate of the Great Reset – to even greater international prominence.
Israel is a highly attractive BRI market for China and the CCP is acutely aware of Israel’s importance as a strategic outpost connecting the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea through the Gulf of Suez.
Furthermore, the Chinese government has for many years acknowledged the primacy of Israel as a global technology hub and capitalised on Israel’s innovation capabilities to help meet its own strategic challenges.
Therefore, Naftali Bennet’s mediation between Moscow and Kiev is likely to factor the instrumental role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in expanding both China and Israel’s regional and global strategic footprint.
Israel’s status as among the leading tech hubs of the future and gateway connecting Europe and the Middle East is inextricably tied to the web of physical infrastructures, such as roads, railways, ports and energy pipelines which China has been building over the past decade.
Already a powerhouse in auto-technologies, robotics and cybersecurity, Israel aspires to be the central nation in the millennial Kingdom and the country’s tech startups are predicted to play a key role in the fourth industrial revolution.
Strengthening its evolving relationship with China amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis could help propel Israel into a regional hegemon par excellence with a large share of centralised economic and technological power converging in Jerusalem.
As Israel embarks on efforts to diversify its export markets and investments away from the United States, it begs an important question.
Is Israel in the formative stages of outsourcing its security interests away from the US and hedging its bets on the Sino-Russia axis?
8. It is now common knowledge that Digital IDs are a central plank in the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset agenda and are to be streamlined across industries, supply chains and markets as a way of advancing the UN 2030 SDGs and delivering individualised and integrated services in future smart cities.
Many have cottoned on to how such a platform can be used to usher in a global system of technocratic population control and compliance by incorporating humanity into a new corporate value chain where citizens are mined as data commodities for ESG investors and human capital bond markets and assigned a social and climate score based on how well they measure up against the UN SDGs.
This seamless verification of people and connected devices in smart environments can only take place once our biometrics, health records, finances, education transcripts, consumer habits, carbon footprint and the entire sum of human experiences is stored on an interoperable database to determine our conformity with the UN SDGs, thus forcing a monumental change to our social contract.
Vaccine passports were initially touted by public-private partnerships as an entry point for Digital IDs. Now that such a logic has run its course, how might the present geopolitical tensions contribute to scaling what is the key node in a new digital ecosystem?
Ukraine has traditionally been called Europe’s breadbasket and alongside Russia, both nations are major global suppliers of staple grains. Therefore, the war has all the makings of a black swan for commodities and inflation.
With an economy teetering on the brink of collapse due to a global supply crunch, I believe the resulting economic tremors will trigger wartime emergencies across the world and the public will be told to brace themselves for rationing.
Once this takes place, the multilateral adoption of Digital IDs which interface with Central Bank Digital Currencies can be touted as the solution to efficiently manage and distribute household rations under an unprecedented state of emergency and exception.
The Bank of England has already floated the prospect of programmable cash which can only be spent on essentials or goods which an employer or government deem sensible.
Once the issuer is granted control over how it is spent by the recipient, it will become nigh impossible to function adequately without a Digital ID, which will be required to receive food parcels and obtain a basic means of subsistence. Think UBI (Universal Basic Income).
If food inflation continues on an upward trajectory with no signs of abating, governments may institute price controls in the form of rationing and ration entries could be logged on blockchain ledgers on the Digital ID to track our carbon footprint and consumptive habits during a national emergency.
9. Europe is directly in the line of fire once a hybrid war between NATO and the Sino-Russia axis is underway.
It would be remiss to ignore the clear and present danger posed by a cyber attack on banks and critical infrastructure or even a tentative and tactical nuclear exchange with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
I can’t see how any warring party will not be limited by the doctrine of mutually assured destruction so a thermonuclear fallout is unlikely.
However, the use of remote access technologies to erase system memory from the SWIFT banking apparatus or Cross-Border Interbank Payment System can potentially render much of the international economy non-operational and send the dollar into a tailspin.
If an event of such cataclysmic proportions was to occur, it will undoubtedly lead to increasing demands to overhaul cyber security.
The fallout from such an event could very well establish a new global security protocol according to which citizens must possess a Digital ID as a necessary national security measure.
One can imagine how accessing the internet or public services in the aftermath of a nationwide cyberattack may require citizens to use a Digital ID to authenticate that their online activities and transactions are from a legitimate and non-malicious source.
There are few coincidences in politics.
10. The economic implications of this war will be so disastrous that governments and the public sector will require a significant injection of private capital to address the financing shortfall.
This will effectively render the traditional separation of powers between central banking institutions and governments obsolete, as the former will be positioned to disproportionately influence the fiscal trajectory of nation states, whose sovereignty will be hollowed out by the wholesale capture of governments by the central banks and hedge funds.
Therefore, the nation-state model is gradually being upended by a global technocracy, consisting of an unelected consortium of leaders of industry, central banking oligarchs and private financial institutions, most of which are predominantly non-state corporate actors attempting to restructure global governance and enlist themselves in the global decision-making process.
Therefore, the future of international relations and the social, economic and political transformation which the world is presently undergoing in light of the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict will not be decided through multilateralism and elected representatives of sovereign states.
Rather, it will be decided through a network of multi-stakeholder partnerships which are motivated by the politics of expediency and not accountable to any electorate or beholden to any state and for whom concepts like sovereignty and international law are meaningless.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-did-vladimir-putin-invade-ukraine
Why Did Vladimir Putin Invade Ukraine?
Nearly three weeks have passed since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his invasion of Ukraine, but it still is not clear why he did so and what he hopes to achieve. Western analysts, commentators and government officials have put forward more than a dozen theories to explain Putin's actions, motives, and objectives.
Some analysts posit that Putin is motivated by a desire to rebuild the Russian Empire. Others say he is obsessed with bringing Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence. Some believe that Putin wants to control Ukraine's vast offshore energy resources. Still others speculate that Putin, an aging autocrat, is seeking to maintain his grip on power.
While some argue that Putin has a long-term proactive strategy aimed at establishing Russian primacy in Europe, others believe he is a short-term reactionary seeking to preserve what remains of Russia's diminishing position on the world stage.
Following is a compilation of eight differing but complementary theories that try to explain why Putin invaded Ukraine.
Following is a compilation of eight differi
1. Empire Building
The most common explanation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that Putin, burning with resentment over the demise of the Soviet Empire, is determined to reestablish Russia (generally considered a regional power) as a great power that can exert influence on a global scale.
According to this theory, Putin aims to regain control over the 14 post-Soviet states — often referred to as Russia's "near abroad"— that became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This is part of greater plan to rebuild the Russian Empire, which territorially was even more expansive than the Soviet Empire.
The Russian Empire theory holds that Putin's invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, as well as his 2015 decision to intervene militarily in Syria, were all parts of a strategy to restore Russia's geopolitical position — and erode the U.S.-led rules-based international order.
Those who believe Putin is trying to reestablish Russia as a great power say that once he gains control over Ukraine, he will turn his focus to other former Soviet republics, including the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and eventually Bulgaria, Romania and even Poland.
Putin's ultimate objective, they say, is to drive the United States out of Europe, establish an exclusive great-power sphere of influence for Russia on the continent and dominate the European security order.
Russian literature supports this view. In 1997, for instance, Russian strategist Aleksandr Dugin, a friend of Putin, published a highly influential book — "Foundation of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia"— which argued that Russia's long-term goal should be the creation, not of a Russian Empire, but of a Eurasian Empire.
Dugin's book, which is required reading in Russian military academies, states that to make Russia great again, Georgia should be dismembered, Finland should be annexed and Ukraine should cease to exist: "Ukraine, as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions, represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia." Dugin, who has been described as "Putin's Rasputin," added:
"The Eurasian Empire will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, the strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us."
In April 2005, Putin echoed this sentiment when, in his annual state of the nation address, he described the collapse of the Soviet empire as "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." Since then, Putin has repeatedly criticized the U.S.-led world order, in which Russia has a subordinate position.
In February 2007, during a speech to the Munich Conference on Security Policy, Putin attacked the idea of a "unipolar" world order in which the United States, as the sole superpower, was able to spread its liberal democratic values to other parts of the world, including Russia.
In October 2014, in a speech to the Valdai Discussion Club, a high-profile Russian think tank close to the Kremlin, Putin criticized the post-World War II liberal international order, whose principles and norms — including adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights and the promotion of liberal democracy, as well as preserving the sanctity of territorial sovereignty and existing boundaries — have regulated the conduct of international relations for nearly 80 years. Putin called for the creation of a new multipolar world order that is more friendly to the interests of an autocratic Russia.
The late Zbigniew Brzezinski (former National Security Advisor to U.S. President Jimmy Carter), in his 1997 book "The Grand Chessboard," wrote that Ukraine is essential to Russian imperial ambitions:
"Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.... However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia."
The German historian Jan Behrends tweeted:
"Make no mistake: For #Putin it's not about EU or NATO, it is about his mission to restore Russian empire. No more, no less. #Ukraine is just a stage, NATO is just one irritant. But the ultimate goal is Russian hegemony in Europe."
Ukraine expert Peter Dickinson, writing for the Atlantic Council, noted:
"Putin's extreme animosity towards Ukraine is shaped by his imperialistic instincts. It is often suggested that Putin wishes to recreate the Soviet Union, but this is actually far from the case. In fact, he is a Russian imperialist who dreams of a revived Czarist Empire and blames the early Soviet authorities for handing over ancestral Russian lands to Ukraine and other Soviet republics."
Bulgarian scholar Ivan Krastev agreed:
"America and Europe aren't divided on what Mr. Putin wants. For all the speculation about motives, that much is clear: The Kremlin wants a symbolic break from the 1990s, burying the post-Cold War order. That would take the form of a new European security architecture that recognizes Russia's sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space and rejects the universality of Western values. Rather than the restoration of the Soviet Union, the goal is the recovery of what Mr. Putin regards as historic Russia."
Transatlantic security analyst Andrew Michta added that Putin's invasion of Ukraine was:
"The culmination of almost two decades of policy aimed at reconstructing the Russian empire and bringing Russia back into European politics as one of the principal players empowered to shape the Continent's future."
Writing for the national security blog 1945, Michta elaborated:
"From Moscow's perspective the Ukrainian war is in effect the final battle of the Cold War — for Russia a time to reclaim its place on the European chessboard as a great empire, empowered to shape the Continent's destiny going forward. The West needs to understand and accept that only once Russia is unequivocally defeated in Ukraine will a genuine post-Cold War settlement finally be possible."
2. Buffer Zone
Many analysts attribute the Russian invasion of Ukraine to geopolitics, which attempts to explain the behavior of states through the lens of geography.
Most of the western part of Russia sits on the Russian Plain, a vast mountain-free area that extends over 4,000,000 square kilometers (1.5 million square miles). Also called the East European Plain, the vast flatland presents Russia with an acute security problem: an enemy army invading from central or eastern Europe would encounter few geographical obstacles to reach the Russian heartland. In other words, Russia, due to its geography, is especially difficult to defend.
The veteran geopolitical analyst Robert Kaplan wrote that geography is the starting point for understanding everything else about Russia:
"Russia remains illiberal and autocratic because, unlike Britain and America, it is not an island nation, but a vast continent with few geographical features to protect it from invasion. Putin's aggression stems ultimately from this fundamental geographical insecurity."
Russia's leaders historically have sought to obtain strategic depth by pushing outward to create buffer zones — territorial barriers that increase the distance and time invaders would encounter to reach Moscow.
The Russian Empire included the Baltics, Finland and Poland, all of which served as buffers. The Soviet Union created the Warsaw Pact — which included Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania — as a vast buffer to protect against potential invaders.
Most of the former Warsaw Pact countries are now members of NATO. That leaves Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine, strategically located between Russia and the West, as the only eastern European countries left to serve as Russian buffer states. Some analysts argue that Russia's perceived need for a buffer is the primary factor in Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.
Mark Galeotti, a leading British scholar of Russian power politics, noted that the possession of a buffer zone is intrinsic to Russia's understanding of great-power status:
"From Putin's point of view, he has built so much of his political identity around the notion of making Russia a great power and making it recognized as a great power. When he thinks of great power, he is essentially a 19th century geopolitician. It's not the power of economic connectivity, or technological innovation, let alone soft power. No. Great power, in good old-fashioned terms, has a sphere of influence, countries whose sovereignty is subordinate to your own."
Others believe that the concept of buffer states is obsolete. International security expert Benjamin Denison, for instance, argued that Russia cannot legitimately justify the need for a buffer zone:
"Once nuclear weapons were invented ... buffer states were no longer seen as necessary regardless of geography, as nuclear deterrence worked to ensure the territorial integrity of great powers with nuclear capabilities.... The utility of buffer states and the concerns of geography invariably changed following the nuclear revolution. Without the concern of quick invasions into the homeland of a rival great power, buffer states lose their utility regardless of the geography of the territory....
"Narrowly defining national interests to geography, and mandating that geography pushes states to replicate past actions throughout history, only fosters inaccurate thinking and forgives Russian land-grabs as natural."
3. Ukrainian Independence
Closely intertwined with theories about empire-building and geopolitics is Putin's obsession with extinguishing Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin contends that Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and that its independence in August 1991 was a historical mistake. Ukraine, he claims, does not have a right to exist.
Putin has repeatedly downplayed or negated Ukraine's right to statehood and sovereignty:
In 2008, Putin told William Burns, then the U.S. ambassador to Russia (now director of the CIA): "Don't you know that Ukraine is not even a real country? Part of it is really East European and part is really Russian."
In July 2021, Putin penned a 7,000-word essay — "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians"— in which he expressed contempt for Ukrainian statehood, questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine's borders and argued that modern-day Ukraine occupies "the lands of historical Russia." He concluded: "I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia."
In February 2022, just three days before he launched his invasion, Putin asserted that Ukraine was a fake state created by Vladimir Lenin, the founder of the Soviet Union:
"Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia — by separating, severing what is historically Russian land.... Soviet Ukraine is the result of the Bolsheviks' policy and can be rightfully called 'Vladimir Lenin's Ukraine.' He was its creator and architect."
Russia scholar Mark Katz, in an essay — "Blame It on Lenin: What Putin Gets Wrong About Ukraine"— argued that Putin should draw lessons from Lenin's realization that a more accommodating approach toward Ukrainian nationalism would better serve Russia's long-term interests:
"Putin cannot escape the problem that Lenin himself had to deal with of how to reconcile non-Russians to being ruled by Russia. The forceful imposition of Russian rule in part — much less all — of Ukraine will not bring about such a reconciliation. For even if Ukrainians cannot resist the forceful imposition of Russian rule over part or all of Ukraine now, Putin's success in imposing it is only likely to intensify feelings of Ukrainian nationalism and lead it to burst forth again whenever the opportunity arises."
Ukraine's political independence has been accompanied by a long-running feud with Russia over religious allegiance. In January 2019, in what was described as "the biggest rift in Christianity in centuries," the Orthodox church in Ukraine gained independence (autocephaly) from the Russian church. The Ukrainian church had been under the jurisdiction of the Moscow patriarchate since 1686. Its autonomy dealt a blow to the Russian church, which lost around one-fifth of the 150 million Orthodox Christians under its authority.
The Ukrainian government claimed that Moscow-backed churches in Ukraine were being used by the Kremlin to spread propaganda and to support Russian separatists in the eastern Donbas region. Putin wants the Ukrainian church to return to Moscow's orbit, and has warned of "a heavy dispute, if not bloodshed" over any attempts to transfer ownership of church property.
The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, has declared that Kyiv, where the Orthodox religion began, is comparable in terms of its historic importance to Jerusalem:
"Ukraine is not on the periphery of our church. We call Kiev 'the mother of all Russian cities'. For us Kiev is what Jerusalem is for many. Russian Orthodoxy began there, so under no circumstances can we abandon this historical and spiritual relationship. The whole unity of our Local Church is based on these spiritual ties."
On March 6, Kirill — a former KGB agent who is known as "Putin's altar boy" due to his subservience to the Russian leader — publicly endorsed the invasion of Ukraine. In a sermon he repeated Putin's claims that the Ukrainian government was carrying out a "genocide" of Russians in Ukraine: "For eight years, the suppression, extermination of people has been underway in Donbass. Eight years of suffering and the entire world is silent."
German geopolitical analyst Ulrich Speck wrote:
"For Putin, destroying Ukraine's independence has become an obsession.... Putin has often said, and even written, that Ukraine is not a separate nation, and should not exist as a sovereign state. It is this fundamental denial that has led Putin to wage this totally senseless war that he cannot win. And that leads us to the problem of making peace: either Ukraine has the right to exist as a nation and a sovereign state, or it hasn't. Sovereignty is indivisible. Putin denies it, Ukraine defends it. How can you make a compromise about the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state? Impossible. That's why both sides can only fight on until they win.
"Normally wars that take place between states are about conflicts they have between them. Yet this is a war about the existence of one state, which is denied by the aggressor. That's why the usual concepts of peacemaking — finding a compromise — do not apply. If Ukraine continues to exist as a sovereign state, Putin will have lost. He is not interested in territorial gain as such — it's rather a burden for him. He is only interested in controlling the entire country. Everything else for him is defeat."
Ukraine expert Taras Kuzio added:
"The real cause of today's crisis is Putin's quest to return Ukraine to the Russian orbit. For the past eight years, he has used a combination of direct military intervention, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure, and coercive diplomacy to try and force Ukraine into abandoning its Euro-Atlantic ambitions....
"Putin's ultimate objective is Ukraine's capitulation and the country's absorption into the Russian sphere of influence. His obsessive pursuit of this goal has already plunged the world into a new Cold War....
"Nothing less than Ukraine's return to the Kremlin orbit will satisfy Putin or assuage his fears over the further breakup of Russia's imperial inheritance. He will not stop until he is stopped. In order to achieve this, the West must become far more robust in responding to Russian imperial aggression, while also expediting Ukraine's own Euro-Atlantic integration."
4. NATO
This theory holds that Putin invaded Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO. The Russian president has repeatedly demanded that the West "immediately" guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO or the European Union.
A vocal proponent of this viewpoint is the American international relations theorist John Mearsheimer, who, in a controversial essay, "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault," argued that the eastward expansion of NATO provoked Putin to act militarily against Ukraine:
"The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia's orbit and integrate it into the West....
"Since the mid-1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement, and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion."
In a recent interview with The New Yorker, Mearsheimer blamed the United States and its European allies for the current conflict:
"I think all the trouble in this case really started in April 2008, at the NATO Summit in Bucharest, where afterward NATO issued a statement that said Ukraine and Georgia would become part of NATO."
In fact, Putin has not always opposed NATO expansion. Several times he went so far as to say that the eastward expansion of NATO was none of Russia's concern.
In March 2000, for instance, Putin, in an interview with the late BBC television presenter David Frost, was asked whether he viewed NATO as a potential partner, rival or enemy. Putin responded:
"Russia is part of the European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilized world. So, it is hard for me to visualize NATO as an enemy."
In November 2001, in an interview with National Public Radio, Putin was asked if he opposed the admission of the three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — into NATO. He replied:
"We of course are not in a position to tell people what to do. We cannot forbid people to make certain choices if they want to increase the security of their nations in a particular way."
In May 2002, Putin, when asked about the future of relations between NATO and Ukraine, said matter-of-factly that he did not care one way or the other:
"I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council. At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners."
Putin's position on NATO expansion radically changed after the 2004 Orange Revolution, which was triggered by Moscow's attempt to steal Ukraine's presidential election. A massive pro-democracy uprising ultimately led to the defeat of Putin's preferred candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, who eventually did become president of Ukraine in 2010 but was ousted in the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution.
Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in a recent interview with Radio Free Europe, discussed how Putin's views about NATO have changed:
"Mr. Putin has changed over the years. My first meeting took place in 2002...and he was very positive regarding cooperation between Russia and the West. Then, gradually, he changed his mind. And from around 2005 to 2006, he got increasingly negative toward the West. And in 2008, he attacked Georgia.... In 2014, he took Crimea, and now we have seen a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So, he has really changed over the years.
"I think the revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine in 2004 and 2005 contributed to his change of mind. We shouldn't forget that Vladimir Putin grew up in the KGB. So, his thinking is very much impacted by that past. I think he suffers from paranoia. And he thought that after color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, that the aim [of the West] was to initiate a regime change in the Kremlin — in Moscow — as well. And that's why he turned against the West.
"I put the blame entirely on Putin and Russia. Russia is not a victim. We have reached out to Russia several times during history.... First, we approved the NATO Russia Founding Act in 1997.... Next time, it was in 2002, we reached out once again, established something very special, namely the NATO-Russia Council. And in 2010, we decided at a NATO-Russia summit that we would develop a strategic partnership between Russia and NATO. So, time and again, we reached out to Russia.
"I think we should have done more to deter Putin. Back in 2008, he attacked Georgia, took de facto Abkhazia and South Ossetia. We could have reacted much more determinedly already in that time."
In recent years, Putin repeatedly has claimed that the post-Cold War enlargement of NATO poses a threat to Russia, which has been left with no other choice than to defend itself. He also has accused the West of trying to encircle Russia. In fact, of the 14 countries that have borders with Russia, only five are NATO members. The borders of those five countries — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Poland — are contiguous with only 5% of Russia's total borders.
Putin has claimed that NATO broke solemn promises it made in the 1990s that the alliance would not expand to the east. "You promised us in the 1990s that NATO would not move an inch to the east. You brazenly cheated us," he said in during a press conference in December 2021. Mikhail Gorbachev, then president of the Soviet Union, countered that such promises were never made.
Putin recently issued three wildly unrealistic demands: NATO must withdraw its forces to its 1997 borders; NATO must not offer membership to other countries, including Finland, Sweden, Moldova or Georgia; NATO must provide written guarantees that Ukraine will never join the alliance.
Writing for Foreign Affairs, Russian historian Dmitri Trenin, in an essay — "What Putin Really Wants in Ukraine"— argued that Putin wants stop NATO expansion, not to annex more territory:
"Putin's actions suggest that his true goal is not to conquer Ukraine and absorb it into Russia but to change the post-Cold War setup in Europe's east. That setup left Russia as a rule-taker without much say in European security, which was centered on NATO. If he manages to keep NATO out of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, and U.S. intermediate-range missiles out of Europe, he thinks he could repair part of the damage Russia's security sustained after the Cold War ended. Not coincidentally, that could serve as a useful record to run on in 2024, when Putin would be up for re-election."
5. Democracy
This theory holds that Ukraine, a flourishing democracy, poses an existential threat to Putin's autocratic model of governance. The continued existence of a Western-aligned, sovereign, free and democratic Ukraine could inspire the Russian people to demand the same.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul and Robert Person, a professor at the United States Military Academy, wrote that Putin is terrified of democracy in Ukraine:
"Over the last thirty years, the salience of the issue [NATO expansion] has risen and fallen not primarily because of the waves of NATO expansion, but due instead to waves of democratic expansion in Eurasia. In a very clear pattern, Moscow's complaints about NATO spike after democratic breakthroughs....
"Because the primary threat to Putin and his autocratic regime is democracy, not NATO, that perceived threat would not magically disappear with a moratorium on NATO expansion. Putin would not stop seeking to undermine democracy and sovereignty in Ukraine, Georgia, or the region as a whole if NATO stopped expanding. As long as citizens in free countries exercise their democratic rights to elect their own leaders and set their own course in domestic and foreign politics, Putin will keep them in his crosshairs....
"The more serious cause of tensions has been a series of democratic breakthroughs and popular protests for freedom throughout the 2000s, what many refer to as the "Color Revolutions." Putin believes that Russian national interests have been threatened by what he portrays as U.S.-supported coups. After each of them — Serbia in 2000, Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004, the Arab Spring in 2011, Russia in 2011-12, and Ukraine in 2013-14 — Putin has pivoted to more hostile policies toward the United States, and then invoked the NATO threat as justification for doing so....
"Ukrainians who rose up in defense of their freedom were, in Putin's own assessment, Slavic brethren with close historical, religious, and cultural ties to Russia. If it could happen in Kyiv, why not in Moscow?"
Ukraine expert Taras Kuzio agrees:
"Putin remains haunted by the wave of pro-democracy uprisings that swept Eastern Europe in the late 1980s, setting the stage for the subsequent Soviet collapse. He sees Ukraine's fledgling democracy as a direct challenge to his own authoritarian regime and recognizes that Ukraine's historical closeness to Russia makes this threat particularly acute."
6. Energy
Ukraine holds the second-biggest known reserves — more than one trillion cubic meters — of natural gas in Europe after Russia. These reserves, under the Black Sea, are concentrated around the Crimean Peninsula. In addition, large deposits of shale gas have been discovered in eastern Ukraine, around Kharkiv and Donetsk.
In January 2013, Ukraine signed a 50-year, $10 billion deal with Royal Dutch Shell to explore and drill for natural gas in eastern Ukraine. Later that year, Kyiv signed a 50-year, $10 billion shale gas production-sharing agreement with the American energy company Chevron. Shell and Chevron pulled out of those deals after Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
Some analysts believe Putin annexed Crimea to prevent Ukraine from becoming a major oil and gas provider to Europe and thereby challenge Russia's energy supremacy. Russia, they argue, was also worried that as Europe's second-largest petrostate, Ukraine would have been granted fast-track membership to the EU and NATO.
According to this theory, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is aimed at forcing Kyiv to officially acknowledge Crimea as Russian, and recognize the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states, so that Moscow can legally secure control over the natural resources in these areas.
7. Water
On February 24, the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops restored water flow to a strategically important canal linking the Dnieper River to Russian-controlled Crimea. Ukraine blocked the Soviet-era North Crimean Canal, which supplies 85% of Crimea's water needs, after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. The water shortages resulted in a massive reduction in agricultural production on the peninsula and forced Russia to spend billions of rubles each year to supply water from the mainland to sustain the Crimean population.
The water crisis was a major source of tension between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that the water supply would not be restored until Russia returns the Crimean Peninsula. Security analyst Polina Vynogradova noted that any resumption of water supply would have amounted to a de facto recognition of Russian authority in Crimea and would have undermined Ukraine's claim to the peninsula. It would also have weakened Ukrainian leverage over negotiations on Donbas.
Even if Russian troops eventually withdraw from Ukraine, Russia likely will maintain permanent control over the entire 400-kilometer North Crimean Canal to ensure there are no more disruptions to Crimea's water supply.
8. Regime Survival
This theory holds that the 69-year-old Putin, who has been in power since 2000, seeks perpetual military conflict as a way of remaining popular with the Russian public. Some analysts believe that after public uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Putin decided to invade Ukraine due to a fear of losing his grip on power.
In an interview with Politico, Bill Browder, the American businessman who heads up the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, said that Putin feels the need to look strong at all times:
"I don't think that this war is about NATO; I don't think this war is about Ukrainian people or the EU or even about Ukraine; this war is about starting a war in order to stay in power. Putin is a dictator, and he's a dictator whose intention is to stay in power until the end of his natural life. He said to himself that the writing's on the wall for him unless he does something dramatic. Putin is just thinking short-term ... 'how do I stay in power from this week to the next? And then next week to the next?'"
Anders Åslund, a leading specialist on economic policy in Russia and Ukraine, agreed:
"How to understand Putin's war in Ukraine. It is not about NATO, EU, USSR or even Ukraine. Putin needs a war to justify his rule & his swiftly increasing domestic repression.... It is really all about Putin, not about neo-imperialism, Russian nationalism or even the KGB."
Russia expert Anna Borshchevskaya wrote that the invasion of Ukraine could be the beginning of the end for Putin:
"Though he is not democratically elected, he worries about public opinion and protests at home, seeing them as threats to retaining his grip on power.... While Putin may have hoped that invading Ukraine would quickly expand Russian territory and help restore the grandeur of the former Russian empire, it could do the opposite."
https://twitter.com/DavidRaymondAm1/status/1503108971242172425
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6k9NecUCoA
Ukrainian President Zelensky addresses House of Commons
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/zelensky-canadian-parliament-address-1.6385218
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses Parliament as Russian forces edge toward Kyiv
Ukrainian authorities reported Russian artillery strikes across Kyiv early Tuesday morning
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a powerful, personal appeal to Canada to do more to help his embattled country withstand the invasion by Russia.
He spoke via video link on Tuesday to Parliament, where he received sustained standing ovations from members of Parliament and senators.
Zelensky spoke about the suffering experienced by the Ukrainian people and said that 97 children have been killed in the 20 days since the beginning of the war.
In his speech, which was laced with references to Canadian cities and landmarks, Zelensky asked rhetorically how Canadians would feel if Russia laid siege to Vancouver or targeted the CN Tower in Toronto.
Zelenky repeated his call for a no-fly zone over his country to prevent the Russian airstrikes that have been killing civilians.
His remarks came as Canada directed another round of sanctions at Russia. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced new restrictions on 15 Russian officials who she said "enabled and supported President [Vladimir] Putin's choice to invade a peaceful and sovereign country."
As Zelensky addressed Canadian parliamentarians, Moscow was announcing its own round of sanctions targeting the West — including one banning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from entering Russia.
After Zelensky's speech, the Speaker of the Senate and the Speaker of the House addressed the House, followed by the leaders of the three main Opposition parties and a member of the Green Party.
Parliament is not scheduled to sit until March 21 but House Speaker Anthony Rota approved a special request to host Zelensky's address.
WATCH | Fire breaks out at Kyiv apartment after Russian shelling
Zelensky addressed the British House of Commons earlier this month and is scheduled to speak to members of the U.S. House and Senate on Wednesday.
His speech comes as Russia's offensive in Ukraine edged closer to central Kyiv Tuesday morning. Shortly before dawn, large explosions were reported across Kyiv from what Ukrainian authorities said were artillery strikes.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators also planned to resume talks Tuesday after they were paused on Monday.
Push for full trade embargo
Speaking to northern European leaders earlier Tuesday, Zelensky pushed for a full trade embargo on Russia, saying the sanctions imposed to date have not been enough to counter the Russian advance.
"We have to acknowledge Russia as a rogue state and there has to be a trade embargo with Russia," Zelensky said to the Joint Expeditionary Force.
"This is something that we need and you need as well, just like the rest of the world, to make sure there is peace in Europe and Ukraine."
Canada's government says that since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, it has sanctioned over 900 individuals and entities.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
https://www.facebook.com/alex.tyrrell.92/posts/3088703321342942
- This morning I did an interview with the Russian news outlet Izvestia. The main subject of the interview was my reaction the Ukranian president’s address to Canadian parliament in which he called for increased military support and a major escalation to the war.I expressed my dissatisfaction with the Trudeau government’s response to the conflict, their reliance on weapons exports and their failure to pursue a diplomatic solution. I condemned the Russian invasion, called for mutual compromise and meaningful negotiations in order to end the war as quickly as possible. I reiterated the Green Party of Quebec’s opposition to Canadian arms exports to Ukraine or any other country. Sending arms to a conflict zone will only cause more death, more suffering and more warfare.With respect to Canada’s support for Ukraine I explained that many people in our country have confused the peace movement with unilateral support for Ukraine. What we need to be doing is calling for peace; not choosing a side and provoking a confrontation between nuclear superpowers.When asked about the presence of neo-Nazis in Ukraine I condemned, as I have before, Canada’s military support for the Azov battalion which is a neo-Nazi group that received training from Canadian soldiers after being integrated into the Ukranian military. I expressed concern that the arms we are sending to Ukraine could end up in the hands of the Azov battalion and others like it and that this will have catastrophic consequences on the future of Ukraine.The issue of Russaphobia was raised. I recounted stories I have heard of Russian people living in Canada being mocked or targeted for their nationality without regard for their views as individuals. I expressed concern that in any war there is a demonization and dehumanization of the other side that is used to build support for hatred, military action and violence. This is happening in Canada now. It is important for Canadians to stand against this kind of hatred, especially when it is being used as a call to war.I explained that my calls for a negotiated end to this war based on mutual compromise is a highly controversial position to take in Canada in the current political and media climate, but that it is important to do so in order to de-escalate tensions and save lives. As a pacifist I have a responsibility to speak out against all wars.At a time when governments around the world are calling for war, I feel that it is important to promote dialogue and mutual understanding across boarders. Some may criticize me for speaking to the Russian people but when the alternative to dialogue is war we are obliged to speak.Say YES to PEACE.Alex TyrrellLeader of the Green Party of Quebec
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Desco AufKlarungJe voterais probablement pour une telle position responsable et nuancée si vous vous présentiez aux élections fédérales...Dylan Perceval-MaxwellWhat about mentioning the best way to stop russian agression is to stop using oil. Without selling oil they simply would not have the resources to invade a county like ukraine. We r the green party and as usual going green would improve the world in many ways. Giving guns to ukraine will not stop the war unless it encourages a russian coup. unfortunately diplomacy will not stop it either.Rigel VincentConversely, turning German nuclear reactors back on would reduce energy needs for Russian oil and gas.Olenka DlanyarovaEt Biden qui ne cesse d'en rajouter sur tous les fronts. Et le Bloc québécois à Ottawa qui ne comprend pas que si le référendum du Québec eût été un OUI majoritaire, le Québec aurait subit le même sort que les Russes vivant en Ukraine ostracisés par leur souche russe. Et l'Otan comme les Etats-Unis s'en seraient mêlés. Alors, c'est quoi cette folie émotionelle à Ottawa. Plus de 16,000 Russes sont morts en Ukraine assassinés par leur semblables Ukrainiens depuis Maïdan. Et ça continue. Mais l'Occident n'en parle pas.Conrad William ThompsonIt seems that your argument has gone from being absolutely atrocious to merely just plain bad. Why? Bc you posit a false equivalency btwn Russia and the Ukraine when we all know that that’s a lie. Russia INVADED the Ukraine not the other way around. That’s like a saying that if a woman is raped it’s simply both of their fault — you’re blaming the victims and that’s just plain wrong.Also,if any group is Nazi-like it’s Russia - but why do you never speak about them in that way? To me, that says everything. At the beginning of this conflict you esssentially said that Ukraine was a state taken over by Nazis and you were spouting Russian propaganda like it was going out of style. Now, instead of blaming the Ukraine and the West for the conflict like before, you are saying Russia too shares some blame. Let’s give a cheer out for evolving opinions!!! /S2![]()
David Raymond AmosI concurDeja Vu Anyone???![Inside one of Ukraine's separatist battlegrounds]()
Inside one of Ukraine's separatist battlegroundsYOUTUBE.COMInside one of Ukraine's separatist battlegrounds
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Alex Tyrrell - Chef du Parti / Party leader
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Green Party candidate pulls out of byelection over leader's Ukraine comments
Alex Tyrrell called on social media for Russia's demands to be accepted by the West.
Green Party of Quebec leader Alex Tyrrell.Green Party of QuebecAlex Tyrrell, leader of the Green Party of Quebec, will run in an April byelection on the South Shore after his party’s candidate for the post withdrew over the leader’s comments about the war in Ukraine.Annabelle Bouvette, whose candidacy was announced a month ago, informed the party she was withdrawing on March 6, according to a Facebook post. She did not give a reason, but the party mentioned “a weekend of intense criticism on social networks related to a position Mr. Tyrrell took on the war in Ukraine.”
Tyrrell was heavily criticized after posting on Twitter last Friday that the Russian-speaking Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk “should have their rights to self-determination” and allowed to leave Ukraine in exchange for Russia ending its military incursion.
“I condemn the Russian invasion and the violence on both sides of the conflict as well as the diplomatic failure that led to this war,” he continued.
Despite criticism from politicians including Green Party of Canada MP Elizabeth May, Tyrrell doubled down on his comments in a series of media interviews, saying he agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that Ukraine be “de-Nazified.”
Tyrrell’s campaign will officially launch on Thursday in a virtual news conference. The byelection, to fill the seat vacated when independent MNA Catherine Fournier left to become mayor of Longueuil, will be held April 11. Once elected, the winner will be right back in campaign mode, with a general election in October.
Other announced candidates in the vote are:
- Coalition Avenir Québec: Shirley Dorismond, former nursing union vice-president
- Quebec Liberal Party: Émilie Nollet, social inclusion researcher
- Québec solidaire: Shophika Vaithyanathasarma, math student and former Bloc Québécois candidate
- Parti Québécois: Pierre Nantel, former NDP MP and Green Party candidate
- Conservative Party of Quebec: Anne Casabonne, actress
- Climat Québec: Martine Ouellet, former Parti Québécois MNA and Bloc Québécois leader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2GCKLm3LAg
Live: Ukraine's president Zelensky addresses Canadian parliament
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Sleeping with a very cranky elephant: The history of Canada-U.S. tensions
In 1969, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau travelled to Washington to meet with President Richard Nixon and coined a phrase that has come to define relations between Canada and the U.S.
"Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt," said the late Pierre Trudeau.
Today, the bitter truth of that observation is being felt by Pierre Trudeau's son.
And these days, Canada's neighbours to the south — or at least their current president — don't appear particularly friendly or even-tempered.
When President Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum under the pretext of national security, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would impose equivalent tariffs if the United States does not back down.
"Canadians: we're polite, we're reasonable, but we also will not be pushed around," said Trudeau.
U.S. President Donald Trump is greeted by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the G7 Summit in La Malbaie, Quebec, Canada on June 8, 2018. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)
Trump retaliated with a Twitter tirade calling Trudeau "weak" and "dishonest." He later said Trudeau's comments would "cost a lot of money for the people of Canada."
In the long, colourful history of Canada-U.S. relations, there have been moments when presidents and prime ministers have hated each other and made no secret of it.
But today, diplomatic relations between the two countries may be in uncharted territory.
"We've seen insults in international relations before. Hitler made very rude speeches about western leaders, Mussolini laughed at them. That sort of thing has happened between enemies. But something like this between friends ... I do find it absolutely extraordinary," says historian Margaret MacMillan.
MacMillan spoke to The Sunday Edition host Michael Enright about the highs and lows of Canada-U.S. relations, and what Trump's attack on Trudeau means for the future of negotiations.
John Diefenbaker's relationship with John F. Kennedy has been described as a "toxic swamp." Lyndon B. Johnson once picked Lester B. Pearson up by the lapel and shook him, after Pearson delivered some mild criticisms of America's behaviour in Vietnam.
MacMillan says personal animosities and comments have the power to matter more in a Trump administration than they did in earlier eras.
"We usually think, there are all sorts of other links. But President Trump is so dominating this administration ... What he says matters, I think, in a way that perhaps [with] another president it wouldn't have mattered as much," she says.
MacMillan says her real concern is that Trump appears willing to walk away from the institutions that have defined the post-war international order, like NATO, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
"All of these have been very important in helping to knit the world together economically. It doesn't mean they can't be criticized ... but without such institutions, how do we deal with countries that need to borrow money? How do we deal with development issues, which I think are important for us all? ... How do we deal with climate change?" said MacMillan in her interview with Michael Enright.
"The sorts of problems we're dealing with aren't neatly confined in particular countries. They are truly global. Climate change respects no borders. The next big epidemic won't respect any borders."
"I think international cooperation is very important, and if the United States is not prepared to be involved, that leaves a gaping hole at the middle of it all, because the United States is still the world's most powerful country."
Margaret MacMillan is professor of history at the University of Oxford and the former provost of Trinity College at the University of Toronto. Her books include History's People, Paris 1919, Nixon and Mao, and The Uses and Abuses of History.
Click 'listen' at the top of the page to hear Micheal Enright's full conversation with Margaret MacMillan
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1797537698
Pierre Trudeau's Washington Press Club speech
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/biden-joe-trudeau-visit-relationship-1.3888140
U.S. VP Joe Biden says 'Vive le Canada' as he kicks off 2-day trip north
Biden calls climate change 'the most consequential issue of our generation'
U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden used pre-dinner remarks at an event held in his honour in Ottawa to tout cross-border ties and urge the Prime Minister Justin Trudeau be a leader on international issues.
Biden is in Ottawa for a two-day visit. He arrived shortly before 8:00 p.m. Thursday, beginning his trip with a dinner hosted in the recently refurbished Sir John A. Macdonald Building on Wellington Street, opposite Parliament Hill.
"There are periods where the number of genuine leaders on continents are in short supply, and when they're in heavy supply," Biden said. "I've never seen Europe as engaged in as much self-doubt as they are now."
Biden said the world would make enormous progress — but only if leaders such Trudeau and German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up.
"The progress is going to be made but it's going to take men like you Mr. Prime Minister, who understand it has to fit within the context of a liberal economic order, a liberal international order, where there's basic rules of the road."
The vice-president spoke about Canadian and U.S. joint commitments in Syria and Iraq, and of how the two nations are working together to bolster mutual allies in Eastern Europe, "particularly in Latvia," as examples of the deep friendship between the two nations.
Describing the unease in Europe over Brexit and the groundswell of isolationism and anti-trade rhetoric that surfaced during the U.S. election as a difficult period in history, Biden said "vive le Canada, because we need you very, very badly."
The U.S. vice-president also honed in on environmental issues, adding that one of the reasons for his visit was to talk about environmental policy, saying combating climate change is "the most consequential issue of our generation."
Looking back
Biden also took time during his remarks to pay tribute to Pierre Elliott Trudeau. Slowing the tempo of his speech, Biden recounted a time decades ago when the elder Trudeau reached out to a Biden after his wife and daughter were killed in a tragic car accident.
The outgoing vice-president also praised the current prime minister, saying that the mark of a successful father is to have children that excel past their parents noting the elder Trudeau was a very successful father.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WllcDzk181I&ab_channel=CBCNews
Joe Biden shares memories of Pierre Trudeau
On Friday, Biden will attend a welcoming ceremony on Parliament Hill where he will sign the Senate and House of Commons guest books. After that, he'll have a private meeting with the prime minister before attending a round table discussion with Trudeau, the premiers and Indigenous leaders who will be in Ottawa for a First Ministers Meeting.
U.S. Ambassador Bruce Heyman said in a statement that Biden and Trudeau will "discuss the strong partnership between the United States and Canada."
Trudeau said in a statement that he was looking forward to discussing the friendship between the two countries in which $2.4 billion in goods and services move across the border each day.
With files from The Canadian Press
Discussing US responses to Russian attacks in Ukraine: Thiessen on Fox News’ ‘Outnumbered’
Senior Fellow Marc Thiessen discusses US responses to Russian attacks in Ukraine on Fox News’ ‘Outnumbered.’
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/did-biden-just-commit-an-impeachable-offense-in-ukraine/
Did Biden just commit an impeachable offense in Ukraine?
Remember when House Democrats impeached President Donald Trump for twisting the arm of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, allegedly conditioning a White House visit on his willingness to investigate Hunter Biden? Well, guess what: Axios reports that the Biden administration may have twisted Zelensky’s arm to accept a deal President Biden just cut with Germany to allow it to move forward with its Nord Stream 2 pipeline with Russia — and conditioned a White House visit by Zelensky on acceptance of the deal.
“While members of the Biden administration were finalizing their deal with Germany, they were working with the Ukrainians to set a date for Zelensky’s White House visit, which the Ukrainian president had initially stated would be this month,” Axios reports. “The Ukrainians felt the administration was effectively linking the White House visit to Ukraine’s position on the Nord Stream deal and pressuring them not to speak out.”
Did Biden really just condition a visit to the White House upon Zelensky’s agreeing to acquiesce to Russian energy dominance over Ukraine? Time to appoint the impeachment managers!
Unlike Trump, Biden is pressuring Zelensky to accept a deal that represents an existential threat to his country. Right now, Russian gas exports to Western Europe go through pipelines that cross through Ukraine — which means Russia cannot cut off gas to Ukraine without also cutting off its lucrative exports to the West. But once the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline is built, Russia will be able to bypass Ukraine and send gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea. When that happens, Russia will be able to shut off energy supplies to Ukraine without cutting off Western Europe.
Before leaving office, Trump succeeded in stopping construction on the pipeline. In 2019, he signed legislation to sanction businesses involved in the project. A number of companies pulled out of the project as a result. And Trump made clear that he was ready to punish not just Russian companies but German and other European suppliers as well. As Axios’s Jonathan Swan told me, “Major construction . . . was frozen when Biden took office, because they legitimately were worried that the Trump administration would . . . potentially go all the way and sanction German utilities, end users of the gas.”
As soon as Biden took office, construction on the pipeline resumed. In his confirmation hearing to be secretary of state, Antony Blinken declared he was “determined to do whatever we can to prevent that completion” of Nord Stream 2. But then, in May, the State Department waived sanctions against Matthias Warnig, the Vladimir Putin crony and former East German intelligence officer in charge of overseeing construction. And in June, Biden decided to stop trying to block the pipeline, deciding it was not worth the costs to our relationship with Germany.
Zelensky was not given so much as the courtesy of a warning before the announcement was made. He learned about it from the press. Nord Stream 2 “is a weapon, a real weapon . . . in the hands of the Russian Federation,” he said. “It is not very understandable . . . that the bullets to this weapon can possibly be provided by such a great country as the United States.” No sooner had Biden greenlit the pipeline than Putin began leveraging it, warning that Ukraine must show its good will if it wants Russian gas exports to continue.
This is far more serious than Trump’s ham-handed efforts to get Zelensky to investigate Hunter Biden. Trump’s call with Zelensky was not “beautiful” or “perfect” as he claimed; it unwisely gave the appearance of mixing his electoral interests with US policy. But he made no promises or threats in the call, as was initially and falsely reported, and Zelensky said Trump did not pressure him. Trump’s conduct, while inappropriate, did not to the level of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Moreover, though House Democrats also accused Trump of holding up vital military assistance to Ukraine as pressure on Zelensky, in fact it was Trump who sent lethal aid to Ukraine that the Obama-Biden administration refused to provide. Back then, Joe Biden accused Trump of withholding aid “to pressure a sovereign nation, a partner that is still under direct assault from Russia.” Well, here’s the kicker: No sooner was Biden in the Oval Office than he put a hold on $100 million in US military aid to Ukraine.
Trump was incredibly tough on Russia in deed, if not in word. By contrast, Biden has called Putin a killer, but since taking office, he has suspended that military aid, approved an extension of the New START deal and acquiesced to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which increases Russian power in the region at Ukraine’s expense — and Biden may have inappropriately pressured Ukraine’s president to silence his criticism of the deal.
Do Biden’s actions constitute an impeachable offense? Of course not. Being soft on Russia is not a high crime or misdemeanor. But asking Ukraine’s president to sign off on a deal that will allow Putin to strangle his country is shameful, even if not impeachable.
Joe Biden is a hypocrite on Ukraine
Foreign and Defense PolicyPolitics and Public OpinionDefenseEurope and EurasiaExecutive BranchMiddle East
Former vice president Joe Biden has said that in holding up vital military assistance to Ukraine, President Trump “used the power and resources of the United States to pressure a sovereign nation, a partner that is still under direct assault from Russia … to subvert the rule of law in the express hope of extracting a political favor.”
That’s rich. The aid in question is lethal military assistance that the Obama-Biden administration refused to give Ukraine.
In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea and began arming separatists in eastern Ukraine with tanks, armored vehicles and rocket launchers, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko came to Washington to plead for weapons to defend his country. In an impassioned address to a joint session of Congress — with Biden sitting directly behind him — Poroshenko said his country appreciated the nonlethal assistance he was getting, but declared “one cannot win a war with blankets.”
The Obama-Biden administration was unmoved. The Wall Street Journal reported at the time that “President Barack Obama stuck to his refusal to provide weapons or other lethal military gear to Ukraine, despite a passionate appeal Thursday for help in fighting pro-Russian rebels by Ukraine’s president.” Why? The administration feared that lethal aid would provoke Moscow.
So what did the administration give him? Instead of RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades), we provided MREs (meals ready to eat) — food rations. As one frustrated former Pentagon official put it at the time, “What kind of message does that send anyway? We are sending MREs while they are being invaded by an aggressor.”
Answer: a message of weakness.
When Trump took office, he delivered a message of strength. In December 2017, the new administration announced that the United States would send the lethal aid to Ukraine that Poroshenko requested and Obama and Biden refused — the sale of $47 million worth of Javelin antitank missiles. In May 2018, after Ukraine tested its new Javelin missiles, Poroshenko exulted on Twitter, “Finally this day has come!” and personally thanked Trump “for supporting Ukraine and adopting a decision to provide Javelin antitank missile systems.”
For Biden to now attack Trump for a temporary delay in a new round of lethal military aid reeks of hypocrisy. It was on Biden’s watch that the United States refused to deliver military aid at all. Yet the same vice president who sat there impassively while Ukraine’s president begged for weapons now dares to cite the Russian threat to Ukraine in castigating Trump? Talk about chutzpah.
And since Biden raised the Russian threat, let’s recall that the Obama-Biden administration bears much responsibility for the annexation of Crimea that necessitated the delivery of lethal aid to Ukraine in the first place. Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine came in the aftermath of the Obama-Biden administration’s failure to enforce its red line against Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons by Syria. In March 2013, Biden declared, “Because we recognize the great danger Assad’s chemical and biological arsenals pose to Israel and the United States, to the whole world, we’ve set a clear red line against the use or the transfer of the those weapons.”
Assad responded by using chemical weapons on innocent civilians not once, but 16 times. And yet Obama and Biden did nothing, failing to carry out even “unbelievably small” military strikes — a decision Biden publicly defended. “We can easily say we should have bombed and gone in and taken out their air defense system,” Biden said, “Well, you know, big nations can’t bluff.”
Bluff is what Obama and Biden did — and Assad called their bluff. Not only that, they turned to Russia for a face-saving way out, letting Russian President Vladimir Putin broker a phony deal to have Syria disarm. It was one of the most embarrassing foreign policy debacles of the post-Cold War era. So it should come as no surprise that, when Obama threatened to impose costs on Putin if he invaded Ukraine, the Kremlin called his bluff, too. Putin knew Obama and Biden did not have the will to stand up to him in Ukraine. And he was proved right when they refused to give Ukraine lethal aid for fear of further provoking him.
None of this excuses Trump’s delaying a new round of lethal military aid to Ukraine. But if this military assistance was as vital to countering the Russian threat as Biden says, then it’s fair to ask: Why didn’t the United States provide it when Biden was the Obama administration’s point man on Ukraine?
Marc A. Thiessen
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American Enterprise Institute
 |
 |
  The AEI building near DuPont Circle in Washington, D.C. | |
| Abbreviation | AEI |
|---|---|
| Formation | 1938 |
| Type | Public policythink tank |
| 53-0218495 | |
| Headquarters | Washington, D.C. |
| Location | |
| Coordinates |  38.909230°N 77.041470°WCoordinates: 38.909230°N 77.041470°W |
President | Robert Doar |
Revenue (2020) | $43.5 million [1] |
| Expenses (2020) | $47.8 million [1] |
| Website | aei |
| This article is part of a series on |
| Conservatism in the United States |
|---|
 Conservatism portal United States portal |
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, known simply as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), is a right-leaning Washington, D.C.–based think tank that researches government, politics, economics, and social welfare.[2][3] AEI is an independent nonprofit organization supported primarily by contributions from foundations, corporations, and individuals. Founded in 1938, AEI is commonly associated with conservatism and neoconservatism but does not support political candidates.[4] AEI advocates in favor of private enterprise, limited government, and democratic capitalism.[5]
AEI is governed by a 28-member Board of Trustees, composed of executives and former executives from various corporations.[6] Approximately 185 authors are associated with AEI.[7]Arthur C. Brooks served as president of AEI from January 2009 through July 1, 2019.[8] He was succeeded by Robert Doar.
Members
Notable AEI scholars or affiliates have included President Gerald Ford, William J. Baroody Jr., William J. Baroody Sr., Robert Bork, Arthur F. Burns, Ronald Coase, Dinesh D'Souza,[9]Alfred de Grazia, Christopher DeMuth, Martin Feldstein, Milton Friedman, David Frum, Reuel Marc Gerecht, David Gergen, Newt Gingrich, James K. Glassman, Jeane Kirkpatrick, Irving Kristol, Michael Ledeen, Seymour Martin Lipset, John Lott, James C. Miller III, Joshua Muravchik, Michael Novak, Richard Perle, Roscoe Pound, Laurence Silberman, Antonin Scalia, Ben Wattenberg, and James Q. Wilson.[citation needed]
AEI staff members were considered to be among the leading architects of the Bush administration's public and foreign policy.[10] More than twenty staff members served either in a Bush administration policy post or on one of the government's many panels and commissions. Among the prominent former government officials now affiliated with AEI are: AEI Board of Trustees[11] member Dick Cheney, vice president of the United States under George W. Bush; John R. Bolton, former Ambassador to the United Nations;[5]Lynne Cheney, former chair of the National Endowment for the Humanities; and Paul Wolfowitz, former Deputy Secretary of Defense.[citation needed]
Political stance and impact
The institute is a right-leaning counterpart to the left-leaningBrookings Institution,[12][13] however, the two entities have often collaborated. From 1998 to 2008, they co-sponsored the AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, and in 2006 they launched the AEI-Brookings Election Reform Project.[14] In 2015, a working group consisting of members from both institutions coauthored a report entitled Opportunity, Responsibility, and Security: A Consensus Plan for Reducing Poverty and Restoring the American Dream.[15]
AEI is the most prominent think tank associated with American neoconservatism, in both the domestic and international policy arenas.[4]Irving Kristol, widely considered to be one of the founding fathers of neoconservatism, was a senior fellow at AEI (arriving from the Congress for Cultural Freedom following the revelation of that group's CIA funding)[16] and many prominent neoconservatives—including Jeane Kirkpatrick, Ben Wattenberg, and Joshua Muravchik—spent the bulk of their careers at AEI.[17]
According to the 2011 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania), AEI is number 17 in the "Top Thirty Worldwide Think Tanks" and number 10 in the "Top Fifty United States Think Tanks".[18] As of 2019, the American Enterprise Institute also leads in YouTube subscribers among free-market groups.[19]
History
Beginnings (1938–1954)
AEI grew out of the American Enterprise Association (AEA), which was founded in 1938 by a group of New York businessmen led by Lewis H. Brown. AEA's original mission was to promote a "greater public knowledge and understanding of the social and economic advantages accruing to the American people through the maintenance of the system of free, competitive enterprise".[20] AEI's founders included executives from Eli Lilly, General Mills, Bristol-Myers, Chemical Bank, Chrysler, and Paine Webber.[21]
In 1943, AEA's main offices were moved from New York City to Washington during a time when Congress's portfolio had vastly increased during World War II. AEA opposed the New Deal, and aimed to propound classical liberal arguments for limited government.[citation needed] In 1944, AEA convened an Economic Advisory Board to set a high standard for research; this eventually became the Council of Academic Advisers, which, over the decades, included notable economists and social scientists like Ronald Coase, Martin Feldstein, Milton Friedman, Roscoe Pound, and James Q. Wilson.[citation needed]
AEA's early work in Washington involved commissioning and distributing legislative analyses to Congress, which developed AEA's relationships with Melvin Laird and Gerald Ford.[22] Brown eventually shifted AEA's focus to commissioning studies of government policies. These subjects ranged from fiscal to monetary policy and from health care to energy, and authors included Earl Butz, John Lintner, former New Dealer Raymond Moley, and Felix Morley. Brown died in 1951, and AEA languished. In 1952, a group of young policymakers and public intellectuals—including Laird, William J. Baroody Sr., Paul McCracken, and Murray Weidenbaum—met to discuss resurrecting AEI.[22] In 1954, Baroody became executive vice president of the association.
William J. Baroody Sr. (1954–1980)
Baroody was executive vice president from 1954 to 1962 and president from 1962 to 1978. Baroody raised money for AEA to expand its financial base beyond the business leaders on the board.[23] During the 1950s, and 1960s, AEA's work became described[by whom?] as more pointed and focused, including monographs by James M. Buchanan, Gottfried Haberler, Edward Banfield, Rose Friedman, P. T. Bauer and Alfred de Grazia.[24][25]
The American Enterprise Institute (AEI)—which had been renamed in 1962—remained a marginal operation with little practical influence in the national politics until the 1970s.[citation needed] Baroody recruited a resident research faculty; Harvard economist Haberler was the first to join in 1972.[20] In 1977, former president Gerald Ford joined AEI as its "distinguished fellow." Ford brought several of his administration's officials with him, including Arthur Burns, Robert Bork, David Gergen, James C. Miller III, Laurence Silberman, and Antonin Scalia. Ford also founded the AEI World Forum, which he hosted until 2005. Other staff hired around this time included Herbert Stein and Walter Berns. Baroody's son, William J. Baroody Jr., had been an official in the Ford White House and now also joined AEI, taking over the presidency from his father in 1978.[20]
The elder Baroody made a concerted effort to recruit neoconservatives who had supported the New Deal and Great Society but had become disaffected by what they perceived as the failure of the welfare state. This also included Cold Warhawks who rejected George McGovern's peace agenda. He brought Irving Kristol, Jeane Kirkpatrick, Michael Novak, and Ben Wattenberg to AEI.[26] While at AEI, Kirkpatrick authored "Dictatorships and Double Standards"; it brought her to the attention of Ronald Reagan, and she was later named U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations.[27] AEI also became a home for supply-side economists during the late 1970s and early 1980s.[28] By 1980, AEI had grown from a budget of $1 million and a staff of ten to a budget of $8 million and a staff of 125.[20]
William J. Baroody Jr. (1980–1986)
Baroody Sr. retired in 1978, and was replaced by his son, William J. Baroody Jr. Baroody Sr. died in 1980, shortly before Ronald Reagan took office as US President.[20]
During the Reagan years, several AEI staff members decamped for the administration. That, combined with prodigious growth, diffusion of research activities,[29][original research?] and managerial problems, proved costly.[23] Some foundations then supporting AEI perceived a drift toward the center politically. Centrists like Ford, Burns, and Stein clashed with rising movement conservatives. In 1986, the John M. Olin Foundation and the Smith Richardson Foundation withdrew funding for the institute, pushing AEI to the brink of bankruptcy. The board of trustees fired Baroody Jr. and, after an interregnum under interim president Paul McCracken, hired Christopher DeMuth as president in December 1986.[23] DeMuth stayed on for twenty-two years.[30]
Christopher DeMuth (1986–2008)
DeMuth cut AEI's programs and faculty, reorganizing the institute into three primary research areas: economic policy, foreign policy, and social and political studies. He also began fundraising in an effort to regain the confidence of conservative foundations.[citation needed]
In 1990, AEI hired Charles Murray (and received his Bradley Foundation support for The Bell Curve) after the Manhattan Institute dropped him.[31] Others brought to AEI by DeMuth included John Bolton, Dinesh D'Souza, Richard Cheney, Lynne Cheney, Michael Barone, James K. Glassman, Newt Gingrich, John Lott, and Ayaan Hirsi Ali.[citation needed]
During the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations, AEI's revenues grew from $10 million to $18.9 million.[32] The institute's publications Public Opinion and The AEI Economist were merged into The American Enterprise, edited by Karlyn Bowman from 1990–95 and by Karl Zinsmeister from 1995 to 2006, when Glassman created The American. DeMuth presided over AEI as it moved into the digital age.[citation needed]
AEI was closely tied to the George W. Bush administration.[33] More than twenty AEI staff members served in the Bush administration, and Bush addressed the institute on three occasions. "I admire AEI a lot—I'm sure you know that", Bush said. "After all, I have been consistently borrowing some of your best people."[34]
Cabinet officials also frequented AEI. In 2002, Danielle Pletka joined AEI to promote the foreign policy department. AEI and several of its staff—including Michael Ledeen and Richard Perle—became associated with the start of the Iraq War.[35] President George W. Bush used a February 2003 AEI dinner to advocate for a democratized Iraq, which was intended to inspire the remainder of the Mideast.[36] In 2006–07, AEI staff, including Frederick W. Kagan, provided a strategic framework for the 2007 surge in Iraq.[37][38] The Bush administration also drew on AEI work in other areas, such as Leon Kass's appointment as the first chairman of the President's Council on Bioethics and Norman J. Ornstein's work drafting the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act that Bush signed in 2002.
Arthur C. Brooks (2008–2019)
When DeMuth retired as president at the end of 2008, AEI's staff numbered 185, with 70 scholars and several dozen adjuncts,[20] and revenues of $31.3 million.[39]Arthur C. Brooks succeeded him as president at the start of the Late-2000s recession.[40] In a 2009 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, Brooks positioned AEI to be much more aggressive in responding to the policies of the Barack Obama administration.[41] In 2018, Brooks announced that he would step down effective July 1, 2019.[8]
Robert Doar (2019–present)
In January 2019, Robert Doar was selected by AEI's Board of Trustees to be the Institute's 12th president, succeeding Arthur Brooks on July 1, 2019.[42]
Personnel
AEI's officers include Robert Doar, Danielle Pletka, Yuval Levin, Michael R. Strain, and Ryan Streeter.[43]
AEI has a Council of Academic Advisers, which includes Alan J. Auerbach, Eliot A. Cohen, Eugene Fama, Aaron Friedberg, Robert P. George, Eric A. Hanushek, Walter Russell Mead, Mark V. Pauly, R. Glenn Hubbard, Sam Peltzman, Harvey S. Rosen, Jeremy A. Rabkin, and Richard Zeckhauser. The Council of Academic Advisers selects the annual winner of the Irving Kristol Award.[44]
Board of directors
AEI's board is chaired by Daniel A. D'Aniello. Current notable trustees include:[21]
- Former vice president Dick Cheney
- John V. Faraci, chairman and CEO of International Paper
- Harlan Crow, chairman and CEO of Crow Holdings, the Trammell Crow family's investment company
- Christopher Galvin, former CEO and chairman of Motorola
- Harvey Golub, retired chairman and CEO of the American Express Company
- Bruce Kovner, chairman of Caxton Alternative Associates (and a former chairman of AEI)
- Edward B. Rust Jr., chairman and CEO of State Farm (and also a former AEI chairman)
- Cliff Asness, hedge fund manager and the co-founder of AQR Capital Management
- Pete Coors, vice chairman of the board of Molson Coors Brewing Company
- Ravenel B. Curry III, president of Eagle Capital Management
- Dick DeVos, president of the Windquest Group
- Tully Friedman, chairman and CEO of Friedman Fleischer & Lowe
- Robert F. Greenhill, founder and chairman of Greenhill & Co.
- Frank Hanna III, CEO of Hanna Capital
- John A. Luke Jr., chairman and CEO of MeadWestvaco
- Kevin Rollins, former president and CEO of Dell
- Matthew K. Rose, executive chairman of BNSF Railway
- Mel Sembler, chairman emeritus of the Sembler Company
Research programs
AEI's research is divided into seven broad categories: economic policy studies, foreign and defense policy studies, health care policy studies, political and public opinion studies, social and cultural studies, education, and poverty studies. Until 2008, AEI's work was divided into economics, foreign policy, and politics and social policy. AEI research is presented at conferences and meetings, in peer-reviewed journals and publications on the institute's website, and through testimony before and consultations with government panels.[citation needed][45]
Economic policy studies
Economic policy was the original focus of the American Enterprise Association, and "the Institute still keeps economic policy studies at its core".[39] According to AEI's annual report, "The principal goal is to better understand free economies—how they function, how to capitalize on their strengths, how to keep private enterprise robust, and how to address problems when they arise". Michael R. Strain directs economic policy studies at AEI. Throughout the beginning of the 21st-century, AEI staff have pushed for a more conservative approach to aiding the recession that includes major tax-cuts. AEI supported President Bush's tax cuts in 2002 and claimed that the cuts "played a large role in helping to save the economy from a recession". AEI also suggested that further taxes were necessary in order to attain recovery of the economy. An AEI staff member said that the Democrats in congress who opposed the Bush stimulus plan were foolish for doing so as he saw the plan as a major success for the administration.[46]
Financial crisis of 2007–2008
As the financial crisis of 2007–2008 unfolded, The Wall Street Journal stated that predictions by AEI staff about the involvement of housing GSEs had come true.[47] In the late 1990s, Fannie Mae eased credit requirements on the mortgages it purchased and exposed itself to more risk. Peter J. Wallison warned that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's public-private status put taxpayers on the line for increased risk.[48]
"Because of the agencies' dual public and private form, various efforts to force Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to fulfill their public mission at the cost of their profitability have failed—and will likely continue to fail", he wrote in 2001. "The only viable solution would seem to be full privatization or the adoption of policies that would force the agencies to adopt this course themselves."[49]
Wallison ramped up his criticism of the GSEs throughout the 2000s. In 2006, and 2007, he moderated conferences featuring James B. Lockhart III, the chief regulator of Fannie and Freddie[50]
In August 2008, after Fannie and Freddie had been backstopped by the US Treasury Department, Wallison outlined several ways of dealing with the GSEs, including "nationalization through a receivership," outright "privatization," and "privatization through a receivership."[51] The following month, Lockhart and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson took the former path by putting Fannie and Freddie into federal "conservatorship."[52]
As the housing crisis unfolded, AEI sponsored a series of conferences featuring commentators including Desmond Lachman, and Nouriel Roubini.[53][54][55][56][57] Makin had been warning about the effects of a housing downturn on the broader economy for months.[58]
Amid charges that many homebuyers did not understand their complex mortgages, Alex J. Pollock gained recognition for crafting a prototype of a one-page mortgage disclosure form.[59][60]
Research in AEI's Financial Markets Program also includes banking, insurance and securities regulation, accounting reform, corporate governance, and consumer finance.[61]
Tax and fiscal policy
Kevin Hassett and Alan D. Viard are AEI's principal tax policy experts, although Alex Brill, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Aparna Mathur also work on the subject. Specific subjects include "income distribution, transition costs, marginal tax rates, and international taxation of corporate income... the Pension Protection Act of 2006; dynamic scoring and the effects of taxation on investment, savings, and entrepreneurial activity; and options to fix the alternative minimum tax".[62] Hassett has coedited several volumes on tax reform.[63]
Viard edited a book on tax policy lessons from the Bush administration.[64] AEI's working paper series includes developing academic works on economic issues. One paper by Hassett and Mathur on the responsiveness of wages to corporate taxation[65] was cited by The Economist;[66] figures from another paper by Hassett and Brill on maximizing corporate income tax revenue[67] was cited by The Wall Street Journal.[68]
Center for Regulatory and Market Studies
From 1998 to 2008, the Reg-Markets Center was the AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, directed by Robert W. Hahn. The Center, which no longer exists, sponsored conferences, papers, and books on regulatory decision-making and the impact of federal regulation on consumers, businesses, and governments. It covered a range of disciplines. It also sponsored an annual Distinguished Lecture series. Past lecturers in the series have included William Baumol, Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, Alfred Kahn, Sam Peltzman, Richard Posner, and Cass Sunstein.[69]
Energy and environmental policy
AEI's work on climate change has been subject to controversy (see below). According to AEI, it "emphasizes the need to design environmental policies that protect not only nature but also democratic institutions and human liberty".[62] When the Kyoto Protocol was approaching, AEI was hesitant to encourage the U.S. to join. In an essay from the AEI outlook series of 2007, the authors discuss the Kyoto Protocol and state that the United States "should be wary of joining an international emissions-trading regime". To back this statement, they point out that committing to the Kyoto emissions goal would be a significant and unrealistic obligation for the United States. In addition, they state that the Kyoto regulations would have an impact not only on governmental policies, but also the private sector through expanding government control over investment decisions. AEI staff said that "dilution of sovereignty" would be the result if the U.S. signed the treaty.[70]
AEI has promoted carbon taxation as an alternative to cap-and-trade regimes. "Most economists believe a carbon tax (a tax on the quantity of CO2 emitted when using energy) would be a superior policy alternative to an emissions-trading regime," wrote Kenneth P. Green, Kevin Hassett, and Steven F. Hayward. "In fact, the irony is that there is a broad consensus in favor of a carbon tax everywhere except on Capitol Hill, where the 'T word' is anathema."[71]
Other AEI staff have argued for similar policies.[72][73] Thernstrom and Lane are codirecting a project on whether geoengineering would be a feasible way to "buy us time to make [the] transition [from fossil fuels] while protecting us from the worst potential effects of warming".[74]
Green, who departed AEI in 2013, expanded its work on energy policy. He has hosted conferences on nuclear power[75] and ethanol[76][77] With Aparna Mathur, he evaluated Americans' indirect energy use to discover unexpected areas in which energy efficiencies can be achieved.[78][79]
Foreign and defense policy studies
AEI's foreign and defense policy studies researchers focus on "how political and economic freedom—as well as American interests—are best promoted around the world".[39] AEI staff have tended to be advocates of a hard U.S. line on threats or potential threats to the United States, including the Soviet Union during the Cold War, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, the People's Republic of China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Russia, and terrorist or militant groups like al Qaeda and Hezbollah. Likewise, AEI staff have promoted closer U.S. ties with countries whose interests or values they view as aligned with America's, such as Israel, the Republic of China (Taiwan), India, Australia, Japan, Mexico, Colombia, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, and emerging post-Communist states such as Poland and Georgia.[citation needed]
AEI's foreign and defense policy studies department, directed by Danielle Pletka, is the part of the institute most commonly associated with neoconservatism,[4] especially by its critics.[80][81] Prominent foreign-policy neoconservatives at AEI include Richard Perle, Gary Schmitt, and Paul Wolfowitz. John Bolton, often said to be a neoconservative,[82][83] has said he is not one, as his primary focus is on American interests, not democracy promotion.[84][85]Joshua Muravchik and Michael Ledeen spent many years at AEI, although they departed at around the same time as Reuel Marc Gerecht in 2008 in what was rumored to be a "purge" of neoconservatives at the institute, possibly "signal[ing] the end of [neoconservatism's] domination over the think tank over the past several decades",[86] although Muravchik later said it was the result of personality and management conflicts.[87]
U.S. national security strategy, defense policy, and the "surge"
In late 2006, the security situation in Iraq continued to deteriorate, and the Iraq Study Group proposed a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops and further engagement of Iraq's neighbors. Consulting with AEI's Iraq Planning Group, Frederick W. Kagan published an AEI report entitled Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq calling for "phase one" of a change in strategy to focus on "clearing and holding" neighborhoods and securing the population; a troop escalation of seven Army brigades and Marine regiments; and a renewed emphasis on reconstruction, economic development, and jobs.[38]
While the report was being drafted, Kagan and Keane were briefing President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and other senior Bush administration officials behind the scenes. According to Bob Woodward, "[Peter J.] Schoomaker was outraged when he saw news coverage that retired Gen. Jack Keane, the former Army vice chief of staff, had briefed the president on December 11 about a new Iraq strategy being proposed by the American Enterprise Institute, the conservative think tank. 'When does AEI start trumping the Joint Chiefs of Staff on this stuff?' Schoomaker asked at the next chiefs' meeting."[88]
Kagan, Keane, and Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman presented the plan at a January 5, 2007, event at AEI. Bush announced the change of strategy on January 10 the idea having "won additional support among some officials as a result of a detailed study by Gen. Jack Keane, the former vice chief of staff at the Army, and Frederick W. Kagan, a military specialist, that was published by the American Enterprise Institute".[37] Kagan authored three subsequent reports monitoring the progress of the surge.[89]
AEI's defense policy researchers, who also include Schmitt and Thomas Donnelly, also work on issues related to the U.S. military forces' size and structure and military partnerships with allies (both bilaterally and through institutions such as NATO). Schmitt directs AEI's Program on Advanced Strategic Studies, which "analyzes the long-term issues that will impact America's security and its ability to lead internationally".[62]
Area studies
Asian studies at AEI covers "the rise of China as an economic and political power; Taiwan's security and economic agenda; Japan's military transformation; the threat of a nuclear North Korea; and the impact of regional alliances and rivalries on U.S. military and economic relationships in Asia".[62] AEI has published several reports on Asia.[90]
Papers in AEI's Tocqueville on China Project series "elicit the underlying civic culture of post-Mao China, enabling policymakers to better understand the internal forces and pressures that are shaping China's future".[91]
AEI's Europe program was previously housed under the auspices of the New Atlantic Initiative, which was directed by Radek Sikorski before his return to Polish politics in 2005. Leon Aron's work forms the core of the institute's program on Russia. AEI staff tend to view Russia as posing "strategic challenges for the West".[62]
Mark Falcoff, now retired, was previously AEI's resident Latinamericanist, focusing on the Southern Cone, Panama, and Cuba. He has warned that the road for Cuba after Fidel Castro's rule or the lifting of the U.S. trade embargo would be difficult for an island scarred by a half-century of poverty and civil turmoil.[92]Roger Noriega's focuses at AEI are on Venezuela, Brazil, the Mérida Initiative with Mexico and Central America,[93] and hemispheric relations.
AEI has historically devoted significant attention to the Middle East, especially through the work of former resident scholars Ledeen and Muravchik. Pletka's research focus also includes the Middle East, and she coordinated a conference series on empowering democratic dissidents and advocates in the Arab World.[94] In 2009, AEI launched the Critical Threats Project, led by Kagan, to "highlight the complexity of the global challenges the United States faces with a primary focus on Iran and al Qaeda's global influence".[62] The project includes IranTracker.org,[95] with contributions from Ali Alfoneh, Ahmad Majidyar and Michael Rubin, among others.
International organizations and economic development
For several years, AEI and the Federalist Society cosponsored NGOWatch, which was later subsumed into Global Governance Watch, "a web-based resource that addresses issues of transparency and accountability in the United Nations, NGOs, and related international organizations".[62] NGOWatch returned as a subsite of Global Governance Watch, led by Jon Entine. AEI scholars focusing on international organizations includes John Bolton, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations,[96] and John Yoo, who researches international law and sovereignty.[62]
AEI's research on economic development dates back to the early days of the institute. P. T. Bauer authored a monograph on development in India in 1959,[97] and Edward Banfield published a booklet on the theory behind foreign aid in 1970.[98] Since 2001, AEI has sponsored the Henry Wendt Lecture in International Development, named for Henry Wendt, an AEI trustee emeritus and former CEO of SmithKline Beckman.[99] Notable lecturers have included Angus Maddison and Deepak Lal.
Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair, focusing on demographics, population growth and human capital development; he served on the federal HELP Commission.
Paul Wolfowitz, the former president of the World Bank, researches development policy in Africa.
Roger Bate focuses his research on malaria, HIV/AIDS, counterfeit and substandard drugs,[100] access to water,[101] and other problems endemic in the developing world.
Health policy studies
AEI scholars have engaged in health policy research since the institute's early days. A Center for Health Policy Research was established in 1974.[102] For many years, Robert B. Helms led the health department. AEI's long-term focuses in health care have included national insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, pharmaceutical innovation, health care competition, and cost control.[62]
The Center was replaced in the mid-1980s with the Health Policy Studies Program, which continues to this day. The AEI Press has published dozens of books on health policy since the 1970s. Since 2003, AEI has published the Health Policy Outlook series on new developments in U.S. and international health policy. AEI also published "A Better Prescription" to outline their ideal plan to healthcare reform. In the report, a great amount of emphasis is placed on placing the money and control in the hands of the consumers and continuing the market-based system of healthcare. They also acknowledge that this form of healthcare "relies on financial incentives rather than central direction and control, and it recognizes that a one-size-fits-all approach will not work in a country as diverse as ours".[46]
In 2009, AEI researchers were active in assessing the Obama administration's health care proposals.[103][104]
Paul Ryan, then-minority point man for health care in the House of Representatives, delivered the keynote address at an AEI conference on five key elements of health reform: mandated universal coverage, insurance exchanges, the public plan option, medical practice and treatment, and revenue to cover federal health care costs.[105]
AEI scholars have long argued against the tax break for employer-sponsored health insurance, arguing that it distorts insurance markets and limits consumer choices.[106][107][108][109]
In the 2008 U.S. presidential election, John McCain advocated this plan while Barack Obama disparaged it; in 2009, however, members of the Obama administration indicated that lifting the exemption was "on the table."[110] Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a medical doctor, has expressed concern about relatively unreliable comparative effectiveness research being used to restrict treatment options under a public plan.[111] AEI publishes a series of monographs on Medicare reform, edited by Helms and Antos.[112]
Roger Bate's work includes international health policy, especially pharmaceutical quality, HIV/AIDS, malaria, and multilateral health organizations. In 2008, Dora Akunyili, then Nigeria's top drug safety official, spoke at an AEI event coinciding with the launch of Bate's book Making a Killing.[100][113] After undergoing a kidney transplant in 2006,[114]Sally Satel expanded her work from drug addiction treatment and mental health to include studies of compensation systems that she argues would increase the supply of organs for transplant.[115] In addition to their work on pharmaceutical innovation and FDA regulation, Gottlieb and John E. Calfee have examined vaccine and antiviral drug supplies in the wake of the 2009 flu pandemic.[116]
Legal and constitutional studies
The AEI Legal Center for the Public Interest, formed in 2007 from the merger of the National Legal Center for the Public Interest, houses all legal and constitutional research at AEI. Legal studies have a long pedigree at AEI; the institute was in the vanguard of the law and economics movement in the 1970s and 1980s with the publication of Regulation magazine and AEI Press books. Robert Bork published The Antitrust Paradox with AEI support.[117] Other jurists, legal scholars, and constitutional scholars who have conducted research at AEI include Walter Berns, Richard Epstein, Bruce Fein, Robert Goldwin, Antonin Scalia, and Laurence Silberman. Goldwin, assisted by Art Kaufman, William Schambra, and Robert A. Licht, edited the ten-volume "A Decade of Study of the Constitution" series from 1980 -90.[citation needed]
The AEI Legal Center sponsors the annual Gauer Distinguished Lecture in Law and Public Policy. Past lecturers include Stephen Breyer, George H. W. Bush, Christopher Cox, Douglas Ginsburg, Anthony Kennedy, Sandra Day O'Connor, Colin Powell, Ronald Reagan, William Rehnquist, Condoleezza Rice, Margaret Thatcher, and William H. Webster.[118]
Ted Frank, the director of the AEI Legal Center, focuses on liability law and tort reform.[119]Michael S. Greve focuses on constitutional law and federalism, including federal preemption.[120] Greve is a fixture in the conservative legal movement. According to Jonathan Rauch, in 2005, Greve convened "a handful of free-market activists and litigators met in a windowless 11th-floor conference room at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington" in opposition to the legality of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. "By the time the meeting finished, the participants had decided to join forces and file suit... . No one paid much attention. But the yawning stopped on May 18, [2009,] when the Supreme Court announced it will hear the case."[121]
Political and public opinion studies
AEI's "Political Corner"[122] includes a range of political viewpoints, from the center-left[123][124]Norman J. Ornstein to the conservative Michael Barone. The Political Corner sponsors the biannual Election Watch series,[125] the "longest-running election program in Washington", featuring Barone, Ornstein, Karlyn Bowman, and — formerly — Ben Wattenberg and Bill Schneider, among others.[39] Ornstein and Fortier (an expert on absentee and early voting[126]) collaborate on a number of election- and governance-related projects, including the Election Reform Project[127] and the Continuity of Government Commission,[citation needed] also jointly sponsored by AEI and Brookings, with Jimmy Carter and Alan Simpson as honorary co-chairmen. AEI and Brookings are sponsoring a project on election demographics called "The Future of Red, Blue, and Purple America", co-directed by Bowman and Ruy Teixeira.[128]
AEI's work on political processes and institutions has been a central part of the institute's research programs since the 1970s. The AEI Press published a series of several dozen volumes in the 1970s and 1980s called "At the Polls"; in each volume, scholars would assess a country's recent presidential or parliamentary election. AEI scholars have been called upon to observe and assess constitutional conventions and elections worldwide. In the early 1980s, AEI scholars were commissioned by the U.S. government to monitor plebiscites in Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands.[129]
Another landmark in AEI's political studies is After the People Vote.[130] AEI's work on election reform continued into the 1990s and 2000s; Ornstein led a working group that drafted the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002.[131][132]
AEI published Public Opinion magazine from 1978-90 under the editorship of Seymour Martin Lipset and Ben Wattenberg, assisted by Karlyn Bowman. The institute's work on polling continues with public opinion features in The American Enterprise and The American and Bowman's AEI Studies in Public Opinion.[133]
Social and cultural studies
AEI's social and cultural studies program dates to the 1970s, when William J. Baroody Sr., perceiving the importance of the philosophical and cultural underpinnings of modern economics and politics,[134] invited social and religious thinkers like Irving Kristol and Michael Novak to take up residence at AEI. Since then, AEI has sponsored research on a wide variety of issues, including education, religion, race and gender, and social welfare. AEI's previous president, Arthur C. Brooks, rose to prominence with survey analysis on philanthropy and happiness.[citation needed]
Supported by the Bradley Foundation, AEI has hosted since 1989 the Bradley Lecture Series, "which aims to enrich debate in the Washington policy community through exploration of the philosophical and historical underpinnings of current controversies". Notable speakers in the series have included Kristol, Novak, Allan Bloom, Robert Bork, David Brooks, Lynne Cheney, Ron Chernow, Tyler Cowen, Niall Ferguson, Francis Fukuyama, Eugene Genovese, Robert P. George, Gertrude Himmelfarb, Samuel P. Huntington (giving the first public presentation of his "clash of civilizations" theory in 1992), Paul Johnson, Leon Kass, Charles Krauthammer, Bernard Lewis, Seymour Martin Lipset, Harvey C. Mansfield, Michael Medved, Allan H. Meltzer, Edmund Morris, Charles Murray, Steven Pinker, Norman Podhoretz, Richard Posner, Jonathan Rauch, Andrew Sullivan, Cass Sunstein, Sam Tanenhaus, James Q. Wilson, John Yoo, and Fareed Zakaria.[135]
Education
Education policy studies at AEI are directed by Frederick M. Hess, who has authored, coauthored, or edited a number of volumes based on major conferences held at AEI on subjects like urban school reform,[136]school choice,[137]No Child Left Behind,[138] teacher qualification,[139]"educational entrepreneurship,"[140]student loans,[141] and education research.[142]
Hess co-directs AEI's Future of American Education Project, whose working group includes Washington, D.C. schools chancellor Michelle Rhee and Michael Feinberg, the cofounder of KIPP. Hess works closely with Rhee:[143] she has spoken at AEI on several occasions and appointed Hess to be one of two independent reform evaluators for the District of Columbia Public Schools. Hess coauthored Diplomas and Dropouts,[144] a report on university graduation rates that was widely publicized in 2009.[145] The report, along with other education-related projects, was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.[146][147]
AEI is often identified as a supporter of vouchers,[148] but Hess has been critical of school vouchers: "[I]t is by now clear that aggressive reforms to bring market principles to American education have failed to live up to their billing. ... In the school choice debate, many reformers have gotten so invested in the language of 'choice' that they seem to forget choice is only half of the market equation. Markets are about both supply and demand—and, while 'choice' is concerned with emboldening consumer demand, the real action when it comes to prosperity, productivity, and progress is typically on the supply side."[149]
Funding
AEI's revenues for the fiscal year ending June 2015 were $84,616,388 against expenses of $38,611,315.[150] In 2014, the charity evaluating service American Institute of Philanthropy gave AEI an "A-" grade in its CharityWatch "Top-Rated Charities" listing.[151]
As of 2005 AEI had received $960,000 from ExxonMobil.[152] In 2010, AEI received a US$2.5 million grant from the Donors Capital Fund, a donor-advised fund.[153]
A 2013 study by Drexel University Sociologist Robert J. Brulle noted that AEI received $86.7 million dollars between 2003 and 2010.[154]
Controversies
Goldwater campaign
In 1964, William J. Baroody Sr., and several of his top staff at AEI, including Karl Hess, moonlighted as policy advisers and speechwriters for Republican presidential nominee Barry Goldwater. "Even though Baroody and his staff sought to support Goldwater on their own time—without using the institution's resources—AEI came under close scrutiny from the IRS in the years following the campaign," Andrew Rich writes.[155] Representative Wright Patman subpoenaed the institute's tax papers, and the IRS investigated for two years.[156] After this, AEI's officers scrupulously attempted to avoid even the appearance of political advocacy.[155]
Global warming
Some AEI staff and fellows have been critical of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international scientific body tasked to evaluate the risk of climate change caused by human activity.[157][158]
In February 2007, a number of sources, including the British newspaper The Guardian, reported that the AEI had sent letters to scientists offering $10,000 plus travel expenses and additional payments, asking them to critique the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.[159] This offer was criticized as bribery.[160][161] The letters alleged that the IPCC was "resistant to reasonable criticism and dissent, and prone to summary conclusions that are poorly supported by the analytical work" and asked for essays that "thoughtfully explore the limitations of climate model outputs".[162][163]
The Guardian reported that the AEI received $1.6 million in funding from ExxonMobil, and further notes that former ExxonMobil CEO Lee R. Raymond is the vice-chairman of AEI's board of trustees.[164] This story was repeated by Newsweek, which drew criticism from its contributing editor Robert J. Samuelson because "this accusation was long ago discredited, and Newsweek shouldn't have lent it respectability."[165]The Guardian article was disputed both by AEI[166] and in an editorial in The Wall Street Journal.[167]The rebuttals claimed factual errors and distortions, noting the ExxonMobil funding was spread out over a ten-year period and totaled less than 1% of AEI's budget. The Wall Street Journal editorial stated: "AEI doesn't lobby, didn't offer money to scientists to question global warming, and the money it did pay for climate research didn't come from Exxon."[168]
AEI denies that the organization is skeptical about global warming. Criticizing the story as part of a "climate inquisition" published in "the left-wing press", the AEI's Steven Hayward and Kenneth Green wrote in The Weekly Standard:
[I]t has never been true that we ignore mainstream science; and anyone who reads AEI publications closely can see that we are not "skeptics" about warming. It is possible to accept the general consensus about the existence of global warming while having valid questions about the extent of warming, the consequences of warming, and the appropriate responses. In particular, one can remain a policy skeptic, which is where we are today, along with nearly all economists.[169]
Statements by affiliated people
Former scholar Steven Hayward has described efforts to reduce global warming as being "based on exaggerations and conjecture rather than science".[170] He has stated that "even though the leading scientific journals are thoroughly imbued with environmental correctness and reject out of hand many articles that don't conform to the party line, a study that confounds the conventional wisdom is published almost every week".[171]
Likewise, former AEI scholar Kenneth Green has referred to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as "the positively silly idea of establishing global-weather control by actively managing the atmosphere's greenhouse-gas emissions", and endorsed Michael Crichton's novel State of Fear for having "educated millions of readers about climate science".[172]
Christopher DeMuth, former AEI president, accepted that the earth has warmed in recent decades, but he stated that "it's not clear why this happened" and charged as well that the IPCC "has tended to ignore many distinguished physicists and meteorologists whose work casts doubt on the influence of greenhouse gases on global temperature trends".[173] Fellow James Glassman also disputes the prevailing scientific opinion on climate change, having written numerous articles criticizing the Kyoto accords and climate science more generally for Tech Central Station.[174] He supported the views of U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R-OK), who claims that "global warming is 'the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people,'"[175] and, like Green, cites Crichton's novel State of Fear, which "casts serious doubt on global warming and extremists who espouse it".[176]
Joel Schwartz, an AEI visiting fellow, stated: "The Earth has indeed warmed during the last few decades and may warm further in the future. But the pattern of climate change is not consistent with the greenhouse effect being the main cause."[177]
After Energy SecretarySteven Chu recommended painting roofs and roads white in order to reflect sunlight back into space and therefore reduce global warming, AEI's magazine The American endorsed the idea. It also stated that "ultimately we need to look more broadly at creative ways of reducing the harmful effects of climate change in the long run."[178]The American's editor-in-chief and fellow Nick Schulz endorsed a carbon tax over a cap and trade program in The Christian Science Monitor on February 13, 2009. He stated that it "would create a market price for carbon emissions and lead to emissions reductions or new technologies that cut greenhouse gases."[179]
In October 2007, resident scholar and executive director of the AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies Robert W. Hahn commented:
Fending off both sincere and sophistic opposition to cap-and-trade will no doubt require some uncomfortable compromises. Money will be wasted on unpromising R&D; grotesquely expensive renewable fuels may gain a permanent place at the subsidy trough. And, as noted above, there will always be a risk of cheating. But the first priority should be to seize the day, putting a domestic emissions regulation system in place. Without America's political leadership and economic muscle behind it, an effective global climate stabilization strategy isn't possible.[180]
AEI visiting scholar N. Gregory Mankiw wrote in The New York Times in support of a carbon tax on September 16, 2007. He remarked that "there is a broad consensus. The scientists tell us that world temperatures are rising because humans are emitting carbon into the atmosphere. Basic economics tells us that when you tax something, you normally get less of it."[181]
Termination of David Frum's residency
On March 25, 2010, AEI resident fellow David Frum announced that his position at the organization had been "terminated."[182][183] Following this announcement, media outlets speculated that Frum had been "forced out"[184][185][186] for writing a post to his FrumForum blog called "Waterloo", in which he criticized the Republican Party's unwillingness to bargain with Democrats on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the editorial, Frum claimed that his party's failure to reach a deal "led us to abject and irreversible defeat."[187]
After his termination, Frum clarified that his article had been "welcomed and celebrated" by AEI President Arthur Brooks, and that he had been asked to leave because "these are hard times." Brooks had offered Frum the opportunity to write for AEI on a nonsalaried basis, but Frum declined.[184] The following day, journalist Mike Allen published a conversation with Frum, in which Frum expressed a belief that his termination was the result of pressure from donors. According to Frum, "AEI represents the best of the conservative world ... But the elite isn't leading anymore ... I think Arthur [Brooks] took no pleasure in this. I think he was embarrassed."[18
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-budget-trudeau-freeland-ukraine-1.6381733
Federal budget will be a 'back to basics' document responding to the chaos in Europe, sources say
The big question: Will Russia's invasion of Ukraine drive Canada to spend big on its military?
"It will be different from last year's COVID measures budget. We're not in that space anymore. What are the core things government can and should be doing?" said one senior government official who spoke to CBC News on the condition they not be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the budget.
Describing this year's budget as "prudent," the official said that unless something significant changes, it would be surprising to see any of the COVID benefits and aid programs continue beyond their existing expiration dates.
But with global supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures posing a threat even before Russia invaded Ukraine, one source told CBC News that finance officials working on the budget have been using words like "uncertainty" and "volatility" more than usual.
'We're not going to sugarcoat it'
The impact on the global economy of a new war in Europe — with its collateral refugee crisis, unprecedented sanctions on Russia and soaring oil prices — is certain to weigh on Canada's bottom line as well.
"On budget day, you'll see a sincere acknowledgement of the uncertainty we face. We're being practical. We're not going to sugarcoat it," said the senior government official.
That means the budget's projections for revenue, growth, deficits and inflation will be best estimates that come with a caveat: it could all change if circumstances change.
An explosion is seen in an apartment building after a Russian army tank fires in Mariupol, Ukraine, Friday, March 11, 2022. (Evgeniy Maloletka/The Associated Press)
The budget will account for recent new spending on humanitarian and military aid for Ukraine, although some of that money came from existing departmental budgets. Still, it amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars.
There has been a great deal of speculation about whether the crisis in Ukraine will prompt Ottawa to boost defence spending — in recognition of the fact that Canada's capacity to defend its own borders is not all it should be.
Last week, while she was in Germany — a country with a decades-old tradition of non-interventionist foreign policy that recently announced a massive increase in military spending — Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hinted strongly that Canada's own military spending is being re-evaluated.
Ukrainian refugee Elena, left, hugs her five-year old granddaughter Christina as they wait for the train to Warsaw at the Przemysl train station in southeastern Poland on Friday, March 11, 2022. Thousands of people have been killed and more than 2.3 million have fled the country since Russian troops crossed into Ukraine on Feb. 24. (Petros Giannakouris/Associated Press)
"One of the reasons that I am here is because the geopolitical situation has changed tremendously and it is very important and valuable for me as we finalize the budget. Certainly, defence spending is something that we have to look at carefully," she said to reporters in Berlin, adding that Russia's invasion is a pivotal moment for both the world's security and its economies.
Experts say it would take tens of billions of dollars in new money to push Canada's military spending to NATO's target of two per cent of GDP.
Still, another senior government source said that the Liberal government's overall priorities remain the same.
"We've got two pillars. One is the goal of growth. The second is ensuring Canadians can access that growth," he said.
Health care cash with conditions?
So expect spending measures aimed at tackling housing affordability, fighting climate change and creating a modern and adaptable labour force.
And if the budget offers new money for health care — something the provinces have been pushing for — it will come with strings attached, a second senior government source said.
"It will be outcome-based as it has been so far, such as when [it's] tied to hiring a certain number of doctors or nurses. Provinces will have to explain how they will spend the money to get the outcomes desired," the source said.
Experts warn that inflation no longer appears to be a temporary blip, and the war is likely to make the problem worse.
"I would say that given inflation right now, given the war in Europe, 'do no harm' is really important. Don't add to the inflationary pressures," said Robert Asselin, a senior vice president of policy at the Business Council of Canada who once served as budget director to former minister of finance Bill Morneau.
So far, the federal government has given no indication that it plans to scale back the $100 billion over three years in stimulus spending announced in last year's budget.
The threat of stagflation
Asselin said it's a mistake to continue pumping billions of dollars into the economy when inflation is already three times higher than the Bank of Canada's target of two per cent.
"It's a bad move. It's not necessary. Even people inside government would tell you off the record that they recognize it is not needed. You just have to admit it and correct your error," he said.
Asselin said Canadians would understand if the government backed away from previously promised spending if the main goal of that spending was to stimulate the economy.
"Every dollar spent on something that is not needed, it's a dollar lost," he said.
A man fills up his truck with gas in Toronto. Soaring gas prices are certain to put pressure on the federal government as it prepares its next budget. (Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press)
Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page said one source of worry is the prospect of high inflation coinciding with slow economic growth. Add to that the major supply shock in the energy sector because of sanctions on Russia and the outlook is not so good, he said.
"It looks more and more like we are headed to stagflation, I think," said Page, now president and CEO of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa.
"I think we're headed into a really difficult time ... coming out of COVID and then getting hit with a major geopolitical shock."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-to-address-house-1.6380715
Volodymyr Zelensky to address House of Commons
Zelensky spoke to the British House of Commons earlier this week.
Government House Leader Mark Holland and the House leaders from the three other parties in the Commons wrote to Speaker Anthony Rota Thursday asking for permission for Zelensky to speak on Tuesday, March 15 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
The day is expected to kick off with remarks by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to be followed by Zelensky's address. After that, the Speaker of the Senate and the Speaker of the House will address the House, followed by the leaders of the other three parties and a member of the Green Party.
"The people of Ukraine have shown tremendous courage in defending their country against the unjustifiable military invasion by Russia's Vladimir Putin," the House leaders said in the letter to Rota.
"Their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been at the forefront of Ukraine's defence of their sovereignty, territorial integrity and democracy in the face of this Russian aggression."
Watch: 'We will not give up,' Zelensky tells British Parliament:
'We will not give up,' Zelensky tells British Parliament
Canada increasingly isolated as allies pledge more military funding in response to Ukraine invasion
War in Europe changing political calculus on defence spending
But Russia's war on Ukraine — with all of its brutality and destruction — over the past two weeks seems to have succeeded where Trump and his predecessor, Barack Obama, failed.
Have a question or something to say? CBC News is live in the comments now.
At the best of times, debates about defence spending as a percentage of gross domestic product are sterile affairs that engage accountants, statisticians and those interested in the military — and almost no one else.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands presented a study in contrasts on Monday when reporters asked whether Russia's attempt at regime change in Ukraine would goad allies into meeting the NATO spending benchmark of two per cent of national GDP.
Germany — perhaps the most pacifist power in Europe — overturned decades of foreign policy when Chancellor Olaf Scholz ordered weapons shipments to help prop up the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pledged to meet NATO's spending target. (At the moment, Germany spends 1.5 per cent of its GDP on defence.)
Canada currently spends 1.39 per cent of its GDP on defence. Trudeau has long argued that his government has a plan to increase the defence budget to $32 billion over several years.
But Ottawa has never even pretended to have a plan to meet the two per cent target, despite the fact that the Conservative government of Stephen Harper committed to it in 2014, after Russia's annexation of Crimea.
Trudeau admits defence 'context is changing rapidly'
On Monday, Trudeau offered a sign — grudgingly, his critics would say — that his government's often-touted defence policy could be swept away by the invasion and the threat of war in Ukraine spilling over into other parts of eastern Europe.
In front of both Johnson and Rutte, Trudeau said his government recognizes "that the context is changing rapidly around the world, and we need to make sure that the women and men who serve in the Canadian Armed Forces have all the equipment necessary to be able to stand strongly, as we always have as members of NATO.
"We will continue to look at what more we can do."
Trudeau gestures as he meets British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at RAF Northolt on Monday. (Henry Nicholls/Reuters)
Johnson — whose country spends 2.29 per cent of GDP on defence, according to the latest NATO figures — would not criticize Canada's defence spending, but agreed with Trudeau that the world is no longer the same after Russia's naked aggression.
"We've got to recognize that things have changed and that we need a new focus on our collective security," Johnson said. "And I think that is increasingly understood by everybody."
A changing world
Given their place on the European continent, the Dutch haven't needed much convincing. Rutte said the country's cabinet decided in January to ramp up annual military spending by billions of euros. Right now, the Netherlands spends 1.45 per cent of its GDP on defence.
"This will bring us closer to the two per cent and probably we need to do more, particularly given what has happened over the last two weeks," Rutte said. "But the Netherlands will spend a lot of extra money on defence, and I think rightly so."
Ukraine dismissed Moscow's offer to set up humanitarian corridors from several bombarded cities on Monday after it emerged some routes would lead refugees into Russia or Belarus. Here, a woman and child arrive at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland, on Monday after fleeing Ukraine. More than 1.7 million people have fled for safety in neighbouring nations after the Russian invasion began on Feb. 24, according to the UN refugee agency. (Markus Schreiber/The Associated Press)
After meeting with Johnson and Rutte in the U.K. on Monday, Trudeau departed for Latvia, where Canada has over 500 troops taking part in NATO's mission to reassure the three Baltic states being rattled by Russia's violence.
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia all exceed the NATO two per cent defence spending target.
Trudeau started Tuesday by meeting with Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krisjanis Karins. The two of them met virtually with the leaders of the other Baltic states.
"It's an important time for us to be standing together, as we have in the past few years, but particularly with the situation in Ukraine," Trudeau said as he met Karins.
"This is a moment for friends and allies to stand together. And that's exactly what we're doing. We're not just standing up for territorial integrity… We're also standing up for the principles and values underlying our friendship and societies."
Later, in addressing the prime ministers of Estonia and Lithuania, Trudeau spoke about the insecurity each nation must feel.
"You are literally on the front lines of this challenge with Russia," he said. "And we have been here for a number of years and will continue to be together, not just because we are friends, not just because we share values, but because we believe in a shared future of peace and prosperity for people and pushing back against the Russian aggression that is absolutely unacceptable."
Trudeau said these countries have been living not just with the military threat and a history of occupation, but "also the daily use of propaganda and disinformation to try and undermine the democracy and the values you have, something that is right now being weaponized against Ukraine, but also used very actively in all democracies around the West."
Trudeau and others in his government have argued over the years that there are other ways to measure the utility of a country's military contributions — that it should be judged based on the value of its deployments of troops, equipment and expertise, for example.
A recent report from Carnegie Europe tended to agree, arguing that the two per cent target is not an accurate benchmark for measuring military capability.
After the events of the past two weeks, that argument may be moot.
Have questions about this story? We're answering as many as we can in the comments.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
"F**k Trudeau": Canada's prime minister gets less-than-warm welcome in UK
While Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in the UK at Boris Johnson’s office at 10 Downing Street in London, there was a crowd causing a commotion – and it wasn’t interested in an autograph.
Trudeau is in Europe this week and posted an Instagram story following his talk with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
justinpjtrudeau/Instagram
The pair initially met at the Royal Air Force Base in Northolt, United Kingdom, and talked about Russia and Ukraine.
An official summary of their talks explains that the “two leaders decided to deepen bilateral collaboration with respect to security and intelligence in order to better combat threats to democracy, including foreign interference, economic coercion, disinformation, and cyber-attacks,” among other topics.
According to Trudeau’s official itinerary, he was set to hold a joint press conference with Boris Johnson and Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte in the afternoon on Monday, March 7 following a trilateral meeting with the leaders at 10 Downing Street.
A viral video posted to social media captures what it reportedly looked like outside the office. People can be heard in the crowd shouting “(expletive) Trudeau!” while state leaders were convening.
Talks continued despite the demonstrators outside 10 Downing Street.
“We stand together with the people of Ukraine in the face of the aggression that they are suffering at the hands of Vladimir Putin’s war machine,” said UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Now, Justin Trudeau is headed for Riga, Latvia, next and perhaps he will receive a more polite welcome there than he did in the UK.
Contact Information
Headquarters
Toronto, Ontario Office
Vancouver, British Columbia Offic
One number offered is a police statiion in Toronto
51 Division
E-mail 51 Division51 Parliament St., Toronto, ON , M5A 2Y5
Phone: 416-808-5100
Fax: 416-808-5102
Unit Commander: Superintendent Christopher Kirkpatrick
2nd in Charge: Inspector Andy Singh
Community Response Unit Manager:
Staff Sergeant Todd Gowan, 416-808-5119
Community Relations Officer:
Community Response Unit, 416-808-5119
Crime Prevention Officer:
Contact Community Relations Officer
Division Boundaries:
· West-Yonge St., Dundas Sq., Victoria St., Dundas St. E, Yonge St.
· North-Bloor St. E, Prince Edward Viaduct
· East-Don River, Lakeshore Blvd. E, Don Roadway
· South-Toronto shoreline
51 Division is open 24 hours a day. Limited parking is available in a civilian parking lot off of Parliament St.
The TTC provides public transportation which can be used to reach the Division.
By subway, exit at the King subway stop. Go to street level and take the King streetcar eastbound. Exit at Parliament St., stop, and walk 1 block south.
The Division is located on the northeast corner of Parliament and Front St.
and another is a Chinese Food Store they promote
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/sungiven-foods-burnaby
Sungiven Foods has opened its new location in Burnaby
Asian grocery chain Sungiven Foods has opened its newest location in Metro Vancouver.
Customers can now find the brand’s first Burnaby store at 4106 Hastings Street. It’s open from 9 am to 9 pm seven days a week.
Last fall, Sungiven announced it’s looking to open up to 15 stores in Metro Vancouver. The company was initially founded in China, where there are now over 100 locations.
- See also:
The company specializes in high-quality, health-conscious, all-natural products, brands, and practices, such as only selling free-run eggs and AAA grade Canadian meats.
The brand’s flagship store in City Square Mall at 555 West 12th Avenue in Vancouver opened last November.
Name: Manny Bahia & Karm Sumal (Daily Hive)
Year: 2016
Presented By: Milan Mann, BM Group
Bio:
Manny Bahia and Karm Sumal are co-founders of Daily Hive – a digital media company dedicated to connecting readers with their city’s culture.
Childhood friends Karm Sumal and Manny Bahia launched Vancity Buzz (now Daily Hive) in a South Vancouver basement in 2008. The site began as an information source for local events before eventually expanding into breaking news.
Vancity Buzz’s big break came with their coverage of 2010 Olympics and further solidified its community standing with its coverage of the Vancouver Canucks’ 2011 run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Bahia looks after the business development aspect of the business, whereas Sumal is in charge of the content and direction of Daily Hive and also manages the overall direction of the Twitter and Instagram accounts.
Daily Hive has now become a leading digital media company amassing over 2 million unique visitors a month and has expanded to Calgary, Montreal and Toronto. In 2015, the Downtown Vancouver BIA named Vancity Buzz its first-ever recipient of “The Emerging Leader Award.”
What are Russia’s biological weapons claims and what’s actually happening?
The UN security council met on Friday to discuss Moscow’s claims the US is funding ‘military biological activities’ in Ukraine
‘I hope that this is more of a disinformation talking point than an actual thing,’ said Dr Gigi Gronvall. Photograph: Carlo Allegri/Reuters
Fri 11 Mar 2022 22.13 GMT
Last modified on Fri 11 Mar 2022 22.23 GMTThe UN security council met on Friday at Russia’s request to discuss Moscow’s claims that the US is funding “military biological activities” in Ukraine – in other words, secretly developing biological weapons in Ukrainian laboratories. The event saw some heated discussion. The Russian ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, evoked the terrifying specter of an “uncontrolled spread of bio agents from Ukraine” across Europe. His American counterpart, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned that Russia’s claim could be a pretext for it launching its own biological weapons attack on Ukraine.
So what is the dispute all about, and what is actually happening inside Ukraine?
How did “bio labs” become the latest front in the Ukraine information war?
Last Sunday the Russian ministry of foreign affairs posted a tweet accusing the US and Ukrainian governments of running a secret “military-biological programme” inside the stricken country. Moscow claimed that its invading forces had discovered evidence of an “emergency clean-up” to hide the programme.
Moscow went on to claim that it had found documents related to the secret US operation in laboratories in the Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Poltava.
The allegations were quickly amplified by China, which supported the claims during Friday’s UN security council debate. The theory also took on a life of its own on social media under the hashtag #usbiolabs, and found a welcome home among rightwing outlets in the US including the War Room podcast of Donald Trump’s former White House adviser Steve Bannon and the Fox News primetime show hosted by Tucker Carlson.
How have the US and Ukrainian governments responded?
Both the US and Ukraine have categorically denied that they are developing any biological weapons inside the country. At Friday’s meeting, the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: “I will say this once: ‘Ukraine does not have a biological weapons program.’” She went on to turn the accusation back on Moscow. “It is Russia that has long maintained a biological weapon program in violation of international law.”
Ukraine’s ambassador to the world body, Sergiy Kyslytsya, used more colourful language. He called the idea being advanced by Russia“a bunch of insane delirium”.
What are independent world bodies saying?
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said it is unaware of activity by Ukraine violating any international treaty, including the ban on biological weapons.
The UN high commissioner for disarmament, Izumi Nakamitsu, confirmed that the UN was not aware of any biological weapons programmes in Ukraine. Nakamitsu pointed to the Biological Weapons Convention, which has prohibited the development and use of biological weapons since 1975. The convention was backed by then president Richard Nixon, who in 1969 also put a stop to the US developing its own offensive biological weapons.
So do bio labs exist inside Ukraine, and is the US supporting them?
Yes, and yes. Ukraine does operate biological laboratories which receive US funding. The US undersecretary of state Victoria Nuland affirmed those facts in a Senate foreign relations committee hearing this week in which the Republican senator Marco Rubio asked her directly whether Ukraine had biological weapons.
Nuland did not answer the question head on. “Ukraine has biological research facilities,” she replied, adding that there was concern that Russian forces were trying to gain control of the labs. “We are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces.”
Nuland’s comments were seized upon by far-right commentators as further evidence of a secret US-Ukraine plot. In fact, US funding to the laboratories had its roots in the fall of the Soviet Union after which money was pumped into Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to help them transfer scientific skills away from weapons programmes towards public health initiatives.
The scheme was originally known as the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) programme, but is now more commonly referred to as the biological engagement programme. It has been successful in supporting former Soviet and other countries to fulfil public health obligations.
“This is one of the best things that we do,” Dr Gigi Gronvall, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told the Guardian.
Most of the work of the Ukraine labs today, Gronvall said, involved surveillance of diseases in animals and people as an early-warning system for illnesses such as African swine fever, which is endemic in the region. “We know pathogens don’t respect borders, so helping to put out public health fires before they become too big is an advantage to all of us,” she said.
Do the Ukraine laboratories store dangerous biological agents?
Yes, it appears so. As part of their work researching diseases the bio labs do seem to hold dangerous pathogens. We know that because WHO is urging Ukraine to destroy any highly dangerous agents in its laboratories to avoid the risk of a disastrous outbreak should one of the labs be hit under Russian attack.
“As part of this work, WHO has strongly recommended to the ministry of
health in Ukraine and other responsible bodies to destroy high-threat
pathogens to prevent any potential spills,” the UN health agency said.
The WHO has worked in Ukraine for several years helping the bio labs improve their safety and security, so it knows what it is talking about.
If Russian claims of a secret bioweapons programme are fake news, does that mean there is nothing to worry about?
No. In addition to the threat of pathogens held in Ukrainian labs leaking out or falling into the hands of Russian forces, there is the threat of Russia potentially launching its own biological weapons attack. The assessment of the US state department is that Russia continues to maintain an offensive biological weapons programme in violation of the convention that it has signed.
Earlier this week, the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, accused Russia under Vladimir Putin of having a “long and well-documented track record” of using chemical weapons, pointing to the poisoning of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Russia’s support of the Syrian regime while it deployed chemical weapons. She went on to warn that Moscow’s claim of a secret biological weapons programme in Ukraine could in fact be laying the foundations for a Russian chemical or biological weapons assault inside Ukraine.
That possibility leaves even seasoned experts rattled. “I hope that this is more of a disinformation talking point than an actual thing,” Gronvall said. “I guess we shall see.”
Thank you for joining us from Canada.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has abruptly transformed the world. Two million people have already fled. A new Iron Curtain is grinding into place. An economic war deepens, as the military conflict escalates and civilian casualties rise.
It’s our job at the Guardian to decipher a rapidly changing landscape, particularly when it involves a mounting refugee crisis and the risk of unthinkable escalation. Our correspondents are on the ground on both sides of the Ukraine-Russia border and throughout the globe, delivering round-the-clock reporting and analysis during this perilous moment.
We know there is no substitute for being there – and we’ll stay on the ground, as we did during the 1917 revolution, the Ukrainian famine of the 1930s, the collapse of 1991 and the first Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2014. We have an illustrious, 200-year history reporting throughout Europe in times of upheaval, peace and everything in between. We won’t let up now.
Tens of millions have placed their trust in the Guardian’s fearless journalism since we started publishing 200 years ago, turning to us in moments of crisis, uncertainty, solidarity and hope. We’d like to invite you to join more than 1.5 million supporters, from 180 countries, who now power us financially – keeping us open to all, and fiercely independent.
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And we provide all this for free, for everyone to read. We do this because we believe in information equality. Greater numbers of people can keep track of the global events shaping our world, understand their impact on people and communities, and become inspired to take meaningful action. Millions can benefit from open access to quality, truthful news, regardless of their ability to pay for it.
If there were ever a time to join us, it is now. Every contribution, however big or small, powers our journalism and sustains our future.
Fwd: So much for an "Open Society" when even George Soros and all his lawyers ignore the obvious for 9 years EH Mr Harper???
http://www.thesil.ca/update-student-claiming-police-brutality-speaks-about-experience
http://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/people/ben-batros
———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Ben Batros <ben.batros@opensocietyfoundations.org>
Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2012 00:26:15 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: The RCMP, the USDOJ and INTERPOL should at
least affirm that the pdf files hereto attached are genuine
To: David Amos <motomaniac333@gmail.com>
I will be out of the office with only sporadic access to email until 2
Januray 2013. I will endeavour to respond to urgent messages as soon
as possible, and will reply in more detial in the new year.
Regards
Ben
---------- Original message ----------
From: Ed Pilkington <ed.pilkington@guardian.co.uk>
Subject: GUARDIAN
To: David Amos
Date: Wednesday, August 3, 2011, 11:42 AM
hi
here's my email and my cell number is below
all best
Ed
—
Ed Pilkington
New York bureau chief
The Guardian
www.guardian.co.uk
twitter.com/Edpilkington
Cell: 646 704 1264
Please consider the environment before printing this email.
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From: Ed Pilkington <ed.pilkington@theguardian.com>
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2013 18:54:29 -0700
Subject: OUT OF OFFICE Re: Snowden ain't got nothing on mean old me
when it comes to dealing with corrupt Feds and keeping one's Integrity as well
To: motomaniac333@gmail.com
I am out of the office and will not return until Tuesday 27 August.
Any urgent matters please contact Shy Winkfield on the news desk at
shy.winkfield@guardiannews.com
Ed Pilkington
Chief reporter
Guardian US
From: David Amos <motomaniac333@gmail.com>
Sent: November 26, 2019 8:29 AM
To: johan.schitterer@diplomatie.
< Jacques.Poitras@cbc.ca>; boris.johnson.mp<boris.johnson.mp@parliament.
Bill.Morneau <Bill.Morneau@canada.ca>; aadnc.minister.aandc@canada.ca;
theresa.may.mp@parliament.uk; Newsroom <Newsroom@globeandmail.com>; news
< news@dailymail.co.uk>; ed.pilkington <ed.pilkington@guardian.co.uk>; editor
< editor@wikileaks.org>
Cc: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
< Frank.McKenna@td.com>; washington field <washington.field@ic.fbi.gov>;
PETER.MACKAY <PETER.MACKAY@bakermckenzie.
< Brenda.Lucki@rcmp-grc.gc.ca>; DDrummond@google.com; Bernadette.Jordan.c2
< Bernadette.Jordan.c2@parl.gc.
geoff.irvine@
< Gerald.Butts@pmo-cpm.gc.ca>; pm@pm.gc.ca; Katie.Telford
< Katie.Telford@pmo-cpm.gc.ca>; Ian.Shugart <Ian.Shugart@pco-bcp.gc.ca>;
djtjr <djtjr@trumporg.com>; Donald.J.Trump <Donald.J.Trump@donaldtrump.
JUSTWEB@novascotia.ca; premier <premier@ontario.ca>; PREMIER
< PREMIER@gov.ns.ca>; premier <premier@gnb.ca>; Bill.Blair
< Bill.Blair@parl.gc.ca>; Bill.Blair.a1 <Bill.Blair.a1@parl.gc.ca>;
paul.withers <paul.withers@cbc.ca>; steve.murphy <steve.murphy@ctv.ca>;
David.Akin <David.Akin@globalnews.ca>; mcu <mcu@justice.gc.ca>;
David.Lametti <David.Lametti@parl.gc.ca>
Subject: Methinks Boris Johnson, his French cohort Édouard Philippe, the EU
dudes and YOU may enjoy a little Deja Vu today N'esy Pas Mr Prime Minister
Trudeau?
https://www.independent.co.uk/
Boris Johnson faces 'biggest Brexit crisis' yet after election and is
deceiving voters, former ambassador to the EU warns
Sir Ivan Rogers condemns 'diplomatic amateurism' that will lead to hugely
damaging trade deal – or a crash-out Brexit in a year
Rob Merrick
Deputy Political Editor @Rob_Merrick
1 hour ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/
Moncton business community worries about losing French consulate
French consulate in Moncton says it will close in 2022 to save money CBC
News · Posted: Nov 25, 2019 7:01 PM AT
"The Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce and 3+ Corporation are sending a
letter to French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, asking him to keep
Moncton's French consulate open.
The French government recently announced it plans to close the Moncton
office in 2022 to save money. Johan Schitterer, the general consul of France
for Atlantic Canada, would not say how much it costs to operate Moncton's
consulate.
Moncton's consulate employs four people. Schitterer said it's not clear what
would happen with those four employees yet, although they will likely be
relocated elsewhere."
11 Comments
Methinks some folks believe that the French could be upset over Higgy
canceling the francophonie games and are running off to join a different
circus. However I suspect that it was my calls and emails reminding them of
all the documents I sent their Ambassador to the UN in 2005 byway of US
Registered Mail after our Ambassadors Allan Rock, Frank McKenna, the RCMP
and their Yankee buddies in the FBI received the same stuff N'esy Pas?
Mr. Johan Schitterer
Consul General of France in Moncton and Halifax Suite 800, 777 Main Street
Moncton, New Brunswick E1C 1E9
Tel: (506) 857-4191
Fax: 506-862-3909
Email: johan.schitterer@diplomatie.
Appointed: August, 2019
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "JOHNSON, Boris"<boris.johnson.mp@parliament.
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2019 17:37:42 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: YO Sandy Boucher we just talked again Correct?
Trust that you are more thna welcome Minister Carolyn Bennett
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
BORIS JOHNSON MP
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From: "MAY, Theresa"<theresa.may.mp@parliament.uk>
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2019 17:37:41 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: YO Sandy Boucher we just talked again Correct?
Trust that you are more thna welcome Minister Carolyn Bennett
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Office of the Rt Hon Theresa May MP
Member of Parliament for Maidenhead
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From: "Minister (AADNC/AANDC)"<aadnc.minister.aandc@canada.
Date: Wed, 24 Jul 2019 17:37:53 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: YO Sandy Boucher we just talked again Correct?
Trust that you are more thna welcome Minister Carolyn Bennett
To: David Amos <david.raymond.amos333@gmail.
Thank you for writing to the Honourable Carolyn Bennett, Minister of
Crown-Indigenous Relations.
Please be assured that your correspondence will be carefully reviewed and be
given every consideration.
*******
Merci d'avoir ?crit ? l'honorable Carolyn Bennett, ministre des Relations
Couronne-Autochtones.
Croyez que nous prendrons bien connaissance de votre correspondance et
qu'elle recevra toute l'attention voulue.
http://davidraymondamos3.
Wednesday, 2 August 2017
Attn Andrey Dvornikov, tel. (+7) 499 244 32 54 RE Nikki Haley meeting with
Vasily Nebeznya.Russia's new ambassador to the United Nations, This was the
pdf file attached to the email found below
https://www.scribd.com/
---------- Original message ----------
From: "MAY, Theresa"theresa.may.mp@parliament.uk
Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2017 12:12:24 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: Attn Andrey Dvornikov, tel. (+7) 499 244 32
54 RE Nikki Haley meeting with Vasily Nebeznya.Russia's new ambassador to
the United Nations,
To: David Amos motomaniac333@gmail.com
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---------- Original message ----------
From: "Finance Public / Finance Publique (FIN)"
fin.financepublic-
Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2017 12:12:16 +0000
Subject: RE: Attn Andrey Dvornikov, tel. (+7) 499 244 32 54 RE Nikki Haley
meeting with Vasily Nebeznya.Russia's new ambassador to the United Nations,
To: David Amos motomaniac333@gmail.com
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From: "B English (MIN)"B.English@ministers.govt.nz
Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2017 12:11:07 +0000
Subject: Automated response from the office of Hon Bill English
To: David Amos motomaniac333@gmail.com
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Please be assured that any matters you raise in your email will be noted;
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---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Amos motomaniac333@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 2 Aug 2017 08:10:58 -0400
Subject: Attn Andrey Dvornikov, tel. (+7) 499 244 32 54 RE Nikki Haley
meeting with Vasily Nebeznya.Russia's new ambassador to the United Nations,
To: ministry@mid.ru, press@russiaun.ru, info@rusembassy.ca,
elizabeth.thompson@cbc.ca, Bill.Morneau@canada.ca,
bill.pentney@justice.gc.ca, jan.jensen@justice.gc.ca, mdcohen212@gmail.com,
stephen.kimber@ukings.ca, mayt@parliament.uk, Gerald.Butts@pmo-cpm.gc.ca,
Jean-Yves.Duclos@parl.gc.ca, B.English@ministers.govt.nz,
hon.ralph.goodale@canada.ca, djtjr@trumporg.com,
fin.financepublic-
Cc: arosenwald@mediadc.com, david.raymond.amos@gmail.com, gopublic@cbc.ca,
steve.murphy@ctv.ca, , news http://russiaun.ru/en
Mr. Fedor STRZHIZHOVSKIY
Head of Press, Information and Public Relations Section
tel: +1 212 861 4903
fax: + 1 212 628 0252
email: press@russiaun.ru
https://www.washingtonpost.
Putin appoints Russia’s new UN ambassador By Associated Press July 27
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed veteran diplomat
Vasily Nebeznya as the country’s new ambassador to the United Nations.
Nebeznya’s appointment, to replace Vitaly Churkin, who died in February, had
been expected for months. The decree formally naming him as ambassador was
published on the Kremlin website on Thursday.
Nebeznya had been a deputy foreign minister since 2013. He previously was an
adviser to Russia’s UN delegation and deputy Russian representative at the
UN office in Geneva.
State news agency RIA-Novosti quoted him as saying that in his new post, “I
have hopes that the fog will dissipate and settle, and then many of the
things for which they are trying to nail Russia to the pillar of shame will
appear completely otherwise.”
http://www.washingtonexaminer.
Nikki Haley meets new Russian ambassador to UN by Daniel Chaitin | Aug 1,
2017, 11:36 PM
http://www.mid.ru/en/about/
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY RECEPTION OFFICE
(Public comments dept.)
Walk-in reception office for the public is located at 19 Denezhny Pereulok,
Moscow (Smolenskaya metro station).
Hours:
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Head of Reception Office (Head of the Department): Andrey Dvornikov, tel.
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• Postal address: 32/34 Smolenskaya-Sennaya Square, Moscow 119200,
email: ministry@mid.ru
http://davidraymondamos3.
Tuesday, 14 February 2017
RE FATCA, NAFTA & TPP etc ATTN President Donald J. Trump I just got off the
phone with your lawyer Mr Cohen (646-853-0114) Why does he lie to me after
all this time???
---------- Original message ----------
From: "Finance Public / Finance Publique (FIN)"
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 14:52:33 +0000
Subject: RE: RE FATCA, NAFTA & TPP etc ATTN President Donald J. Trump I just
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From: Póstur FOR
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 14:51:41 +0000
Subject: Re: RE FATCA, NAFTA & TPP etc ATTN President Donald J. Trump I just
got off the phone with your lawyer Mr Cohen (646-853-0114) Why does he lie
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To: David Amos
Erindi þitt hefur verið móttekið / Your request has been received
Kveðja / Best regards
Forsætisráðuneytið / Prime Minister's Office
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From: "Turnbull, Malcolm (MP)"
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 14:51:35 +0000
Subject: Automatic reply: RE FATCA, NAFTA & TPP etc ATTN President Donald J.
Trump I just got off the phone with your lawyer Mr Cohen
(646-853-0114) Why does he lie to me after all this time???
To: David Amos
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From: David Amos
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2017 10:51:14 -0400
Subject: RE FATCA, NAFTA & TPP etc ATTN President Donald J. Trump I just got
off the phone with your lawyer Mr Cohen (646-853-0114) Why does he lie to me
after all this time???
To: president , mdcohen212@gmail.com, pm , Pierre-Luc.Dusseault@parl.gc.
MulcaT , Jean-Yves.Duclos@parl.gc.ca, B.English@ministers.govt.nz,
Malcolm.Turnbull.MP@aph.gov.au
press , "Andrew.Bailey" , fin.financepublic-
newsroom , "CNN.Viewer.Communications.
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andre
---------- Original message ----------
From: Michael Cohen
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and left a message for you
To: David Amos
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From: "Finance Public / Finance Publique (FIN)"
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2017 22:05:00 +0000
Subject: RE: Yo President Trump RE the Federal Court of Canada File No
T-1557-15 lets see how the media people do with news that is NOT FAKE
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Putin orders forces to 'maintain peace' in Eastern Ukraine after recognizing separatist regions
The UN Security Council was holding a rare nighttime meeting Monday evening
Putin stokes tensions with Ukraine, orders peacekeepers into separatist regions
THE LATEST:
- Russia ordered forces on Monday to "maintain peace" in separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine.
- Earlier Monday, the Kremlin recognized separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent, but it remained unclear whether troops would enter Ukraine.
- The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting Monday night at the request of Ukraine, the United States and six other countries.
- U.S., Canada, U.K. and other Western Nations have promised to impose economic sanctions on Russia.
- Ukraine's president has said Ukraine is "not afraid of anyone or anything" and ruled out making any territorial concessions.
A long-feared Russian invasion of Ukraine appeared to be imminent Monday, if not already underway, with Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering forces into separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine.
A vaguely worded decree signed by Putin did not say whether troops were on the move, and it cast the order as an effort to "maintain peace." But it appeared to dash the slim remaining hopes of averting a major conflict in Europe that could cause massive casualties, energy shortages on the continent and economic chaos around the globe.
Putin's directive came hours after he recognized the separatist areas in a rambling, fact-bending discourse on European history. The move paved the way to provide them military support, antagonizing Western leaders who regard such a move as a breach of world order, and set off a frenzied scramble by the U.S. and others to respond.
Underscoring the urgency, the UN Security Council set a rare nighttime emergency meeting on Monday at the request of Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries, with South Korea's Moon Jae-in presiding.
The UN political chief opened the meeting, calling Russia's recognition of separatist areas in Ukraine's east a violation of the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo said that "the risk of major conflict is real and needs to be prevented at all costs."
It is virtually certain the Security Council will not take any action or issue any statement because Russia has veto power.
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, sought to project calm, telling the country: "We are not afraid of anyone or anything. We don't owe anyone anything. And we won't give anything to anyone."
Zelensky also said Ukraine was expecting "clear and effective" steps from its allies to act against Russia and ruled out making any territorial concessions.
The White House issued an executive order to restrict investment and trade in the separatist regions, and additional measures — likely sanctions — were to be announced on Tuesday. Those sanctions are independent of what Washington has prepared in the event of a Russian invasion, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity.
Canada's foreign affairs minister, Mélanie Joly, said Canada strongly condemns Russian recognition of two breakaway regions in Eastern Ukraine and is preparing to impose economic sanctions in response.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also condemned Russia's actions.
Britain also vowed to impose sanctions on Russia, which it warned could invade Ukraine imminently. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered defensive support in a call with Zelensky, saying that while a diplomatic solution should be pursued until the last possible second, the situation was deteriorating.
The developments came amid a spike in skirmishes in the eastern regions that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on the western-looking democracy that has defied Moscow's attempts to pull it back into its orbit.
Putin justified his decision in a far-reaching, pre-recorded speech blaming NATO for the current crisis and calling the U.S.-led alliance an existential threat to Russia.
Sweeping through more than a century of history, he painted today's Ukraine as a modern construct that is inextricably linked to Russia. He charged that Ukraine had inherited Russia's historic lands and that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was used by the West to contain Russia.
"I consider it necessary to take a long-overdue decision: To immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic," Putin said.
Some in Donetsk celebrate move as Kyiv bristles
Afterward he signed decrees recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, eight years after fighting erupted between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces, and called on lawmakers to approve measures paving the way for military support.
Until now, Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of supporting the separatists, but Moscow has denied that, saying that Russians who fought there were volunteers.
Pro-Russian activists in the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in Eastern Ukraine react after Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk on Monday. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)
At an earlier meeting of Putin's Security Council, a stream of top officials argued for recognizing the regions' independence. At one point, one slipped up and said he favoured including them as part of Russian territory — but Putin quickly corrected him.
Recognizing the separatist regions' independence is likely to be popular in Russia, where many share Putin's worldview. Russian state media released images of people in Donetsk launching fireworks, waving large Russian flags and playing Russia's national anthem.
Ukrainians in Kyiv, meanwhile, bristled at the move.
"Why should Russia recognize [the rebel-held regions]? If neighbours come to you and say, 'This room will be ours,' would you care about their opinion or not? It's your flat, and it will be always your flat," said Maria Levchyshchyna, a 48-year-old painter in the Ukrainian capital.
"Let them recognize whatever they want. But in my view, it can also provoke a war, because normal people will fight for their country."
'Major attack' on Ukraine feared
With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the U.S. has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, Biden and Putin tentatively agreed to a meeting brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron in a last-ditch effort to avoid war.
If Russia moves in, the meeting will be off, but the prospect of a face-to-face summit resuscitated hopes in diplomacy to prevent a conflict that could cause massive casualties and huge economic damage across Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy.
Russia says it wants Western guarantees that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization won't allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members — and Putin said Monday that a simple moratorium on Ukraine's accession wouldn't be enough.
Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West.
Macron's office said both leaders had "accepted the principle of such a summit," to be followed by a broader meeting that would include other "relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe."
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, said the administration has always been ready to talk to avert a war — but was also prepared to respond to any attack.
"So when President Macron asked President Biden yesterday if he was prepared in principle to meet with President Putin, if Russia did not invade, of course President Biden said yes," he told NBC's Today show on Monday.
"But every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is that they are, in fact, getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine."
Fear of war rises as Russian equipment rumbles toward Ukraine border
Putin's announcement shattered a 2015 peace deal signed in Minsk requiring Ukrainian authorities to offer broad self-rule to the rebel regions, a major diplomatic coup for Moscow.
That deal was resented by many in Ukraine who saw it as a capitulation, a blow to the country's integrity and a betrayal of national interests. Putin and other officials argued Monday that Ukrainian authorities have shown no appetite for implementing it.
Over 14,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted in the eastern industrial heartland in 2014, shortly after Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
Sustained shelling in region
Potential flashpoints multiplied. Sustained shelling continued Monday along the tense line of contact separating the opposing forces. Unusually, Russia said it had fended off an "incursion" from Ukraine — which Ukrainian officials denied. And Russia decided to prolong military drills in Belarus, which could offer a staging ground for an attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Ukraine and the separatist rebels have traded blame for massive cease-fire violations with hundreds of explosions recorded daily.
While separatists have charged that Ukrainian forces were firing on residential areas, Associated Press journalists reporting from several towns and villages in Ukrainian-held territory along the line of contact have not witnessed any notable escalation from the Ukrainian side and have documented signs of intensified shelling by the separatists that destroyed homes and ripped up roads.
Concerns mount that shelling Eastern Ukraine could be pretext for Russia invasion
Some residents of the main rebel-held city of Donetsk described sporadic shelling by Ukrainian forces, but they added that it wasn't on the same scale as earlier in the conflict.
The separatist authorities said Monday that at least four civilians were killed by Ukrainian shelling over the past 24 hours, and several others were wounded. Ukraine's military said two Ukrainian soldiers were killed over the weekend, and another serviceman was wounded Monday.
Ukrainian military spokesperson Pavlo Kovalchyuk insisted that Ukrainian forces weren't returning fire.
In the village of Novognativka on the Ukraine government-controlled side, 60-year-old Ekaterina Evseeva, said the shelling was worse than at the height of fighting early in the conflict.
"We are on the edge of nervous breakdowns," she said, her voice trembling. "And there is nowhere to run."
PHOTOS | Ukrainian troops on the front lines in rebel-held East:
A Ukrainian service member holds a machine-gun in a trench near the village of Travneve, in the rebel-held Donetsk region of Eastern Ukraine, on Feb. 21, 2022. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)
In another worrying sign, the Russian military said it killed five suspected "saboteurs" who crossed from Ukraine into Russia's Rostov region and also destroyed two armoured vehicles and took a Ukrainian serviceman prisoner.
Ukrainian Border Guard spokesperson Andriy Demchenko dismissed the claim as "disinformation."
Amid the heightened invasion fears, the U.S. administration sent a letter to the United Nations human rights chief claiming that Moscow has compiled a list of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to detention camps after the invasion. The letter, first reported by the New York Times, was obtained by the AP.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the claim was a lie and no such list exists.
With files from Reuters and CBC News
Inside one of Ukraine's separatist battlegrounds
In an obliterated landscape, war-weary Ukrainians hope peace summit ends fighting
Crew from CBC News gets rare access to separatist region
With Ukraine and Russia set to begin crucial peace talks on Monday to try to end the long war in Eastern Ukraine, desperate civilians near the front lines are praying the diplomacy amounts to something.
"We aren't needed by Ukraine or Russia. Donbass is completely destroyed," said Svetlana Rizhkova, who lives in Zaitseve, a village just a few kilometres from the contact line between Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed separatists.
"I just hope they stop the shooting," she told a CBC News crew who visited her at her home.
The airport in Donetsk was the site of major battles in the early years of the war and has never been rebuilt. (CBC News)
Western journalists are generally unwelcome in Donetsk and Lugansk, collectively called Donbass, the separatist areas of Eastern Ukraine that border Russia. The Canadians in our Moscow-based team were refused entry twice.
However, those with Russian passports were allowed to visit the region and talk to civilians living in the war zone.
Unsafe outside
Rizhkova's daughter works long hours at a furniture factory in Donetsk, the largest city in the separatist-held territory, so her 11-year-old daughter, Masha, stays with her grandmother in Zaitseve.
"We hardly go into the garden because we can't predict when there will be gunfire or not," said Masha, as she fed some chickens beside her back porch. The chickens were given to the family by the Red Cross.
Barely a day goes by without hearing gunfire or other sounds of war. The family said they have even found land mines in their backyard, fired by artillery, so it's unsafe to wander far from the house.
Svetlana Rizhkova in her home in the village of Zeitsova hopes for an end to the fighting. (Alexei Sergeev/CBC)
Masha told us she learned in school about the meeting Monday in Paris between Russia's Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymr Zelensky and said she and her young friends are desperate for the fighting that's so close to her home to end.
'Everyone is afraid'
"They should end this as fast as they can because there is a war going on and everyone is afraid," she said.
Monday's meeting is the first significant peace summit in years and it also will mark the first ever face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin. The gathering will also involve the leaders of France and Germany, under a process that's become known as the Normandy Format.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with Ukrainian soldiers near the front line on Dec 6, in preparation for the Paris summit. (Office of President of Ukraine)
In April 2014, Russia seized control of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine and began funnelling money and military expertise to separatist militias in the Donetsk region to the north, although officially Russia has always denied playing any role in the conflict.
A series of meetings including France and Germany in 2015 put a stop to the fiercest engagements and established a ceasefire line, although both sides are guilty of repeated violations.
As many as 13,000 civilians and soldiers have been killed over the last five and a half years and the economies of both Ukraine and its breakaway regions have suffered heavy losses.
Zelensky seen as vulnerable
Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert with London-based Chatham House, says Ukraine's president is under enormous pressure to come away from Paris with something concrete, which leaves him in a vulnerable position.
"Ukrainians fear Zelensky will cross some red lines," she told CBC News in an interview.
Those "no go" areas include agreeing to hold local elections in the Donbass region before it has been fully de-militarized and before Ukrainian political parties can get fully involved.
Many Ukrainians fear Russia will use its influence in Donbass to create a puppet regime that will do the Kremlin's bidding.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have held demonstrations in the capital Kyiv and other cities chanting "no to capitulation."
Flags fly backing the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, one of the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine. (Alexei Sergeev/CBC)
Lutseyvch says Putin wants the West to remove economic sanctions and restore Russia's place on the world scene, something to which France and Germany may be receptive.
"There is this fear in Ukraine that Zelensky will be pushed by his allies into a deal."
Impeachment and Ukraine
Ukraine's role in the U.S. impeachment saga may also have hurt its negotiating leverage, as the White House has sent out conflicting signals about the degree to which it's willing to stand alongside Ukraine against Russia.
"It leaves Ukraine more on its own," said Lutseyvch.
One of the eventual outcomes of the Paris talks may be more autonomy for Donbass while maintaining close links with Russia, but with Ukraine controlling the border, which it does not do now.
Many of the people our CBC crew met were less concerned about political arrangements and more focused on having a ceasefire that actually holds.
These women have taken permanent shelter in a former Soviet bunker outside Donetsk. It's cold and dark, but safe from snipers and shelling. (Alexei Sergeev/CBC)
On the outskirts of Donetsk, several older women — all widows — now live underground in a Soviet-era bunker, where they told us they feel safe from the war.
Living underground
But it's a cold, dark existence.
While the bunker has electricity and running water, there's no heat and it's constantly damp inside.
All the women wear wool hats and heavy overcoats.
While four women agreed to be interviewed, none would tell us their last name out of fear of repercussions from local authorities.
Ludmilla and Vera told CBC News that Ukraine's separatist war has now lasted longer than the Second World War and they are desperate for a permanent ceasefire so they can return to their homes above ground. (Alexei Sergeev/CBC)
"It's dangerous [outside], " said Lina. "Sometimes when I go to see my home, shelling starts so I have to stay inside."
The enormous emotional toll the conflict has taken on all four is evident when they speak. Ludmilla, who is in her 70s and appears to be the oldest of the group, cries as she tries to put her hopelessness into words.
Lives in limbo
"I want peace to come, so we can get out of here. So kids can have a normal life, and go to school like before, for everyone to be safe," she said.
Another woman, Vera, says she never imagined their lives would be in limbo for so long.
"Our war is entering its sixth year. Even the Great Patriotic War [the Second World War], only lasted four years," she said.
In village after village, there are homes destroyed by the war. The economic damage from the conflict has taken an incalculable toll. (Alexei Sergeev/CBC)
"Any normal person only has one wish, and it's for the war to end."
Political allegiances in the bunker are divided.
Lina told us Donbass will always be part of Ukraine, but she was cut off by Gallina, who said it was Russian.
Still, all said they feel the world has forgotten about them, with Donbass becoming a pawn in a bigger fight between Russia and the West.
"Who we are for doesn't matter," said Ludmilla. "The politicians will decide without us. As long as there is no more war."
WATCH | 'Everyone is afraid': See what the decimated Donbass region looks like and hear from war-weary residents:
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Jump to navigationJump to searchVolodymyr ZelenskyyВолодимир Зеленський![Volodymyr Zelensky Official portrait.jpg]()
Official portrait, 20196th President of Ukraine Assumed office
20 May 2019Prime Minister Preceded by Petro Poroshenko Personal details Born Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy
25 January 1978
Kryvyi Rih, Ukrainian SSR, Soviet Union
(now Ukraine)Political party Independent[1] Other political
affiliationsServant of the People (2018–present) Spouse(s) Children 2 Parent(s) - Oleksandr Zelenskyy
- Rymma Zelenska
Residence(s) Mariinskyi Palace Education Kyiv National Economic University (LLB) Occupation - Politician
- actor
Signature ![]()
Website president.gov.ua/en Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy[a] (Ukrainian: Володимир Олександрович Зеленський, pronounced [ʋoloˈdɪmɪr olekˈsɑndrowɪdʒ zeˈlɛnʲsʲkɪj]; born 25 January 1978) is a Ukrainian politician, former actor and comedian,[4] who is the sixth and current president of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy grew up as a native Russian speaker in Kryvyi Rih, a major city of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in central Ukraine. Prior to his acting career, he obtained a degree in law from the Kyiv National Economic University. He then pursued comedy and created the production company Kvartal 95, which produced films, cartoons, and TV shows including the TV series Servant of the People, in which Zelenskyy played the role of the Ukrainian president. The series aired from 2015 to 2019 and was immensely popular. A political party bearing the same name as the television show was created in March 2018 by employees of Kvartal 95.
Zelenskyy announced his candidacy in the 2019 Ukrainian presidential election on the evening of 31 December 2018, alongside the New Year's Eve address of then-president Petro Poroshenko on the TV channel 1+1. A political outsider, he had already become one of the frontrunners in opinion polls for the election. He won the election with 73.23% of the vote in the second round, defeating Poroshenko. He has positioned himself as an anti-establishment and anti-corruption figure.
As president, Zelenskyy has been a proponent of e-government and unity between the Ukrainian- and Russian-speaking parts of the country's population.[5]: 11–13 His communication style heavily utilises social media, particularly Instagram being the most popular Ukrainian influencer with 15 million followers - more than twice as many as the next one as of 2022.[6][5]: 7–10 His party won a landslide victory in a snap legislative election held shortly after his inauguration as president. During his administration, Zelenskyy oversaw the lifting of legal immunity for members of the Verkhovna Rada,[7]the country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recession, and some progress in tackling corruption in Ukraine.[8][9] Critics of Zelenskyy claim that, in taking power away from Ukrainian oligarchs, he has sought to centralise authority and strengthen his personal position.[10][11]
Zelenskyy promised to end Ukraine's protracted conflict with Russia as part of his presidential campaign, and attempted to engage in dialogue with Russian president Vladimir Putin.[12] Zelenskyy's administration faced an escalation of tensions with Russia in 2021, culminating in the launch of an ongoing full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022. Zelenskyy's strategy during the Russian military buildup was to calm the Ukrainian populace and assure the international community that Ukraine was not seeking to retaliate.[13] He initially distanced himself from warnings of an imminent war, while also calling for security guarantees and military support from NATO to "withstand" the threat.[14] After the commencement of the invasion, Zelenskyy declared martial law across Ukraine and a general mobilisation of the armed forces. His leadership during the crisis has won him widespread international admiration, and he has been described as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.[15]
Early life
Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy was born to Jewish parents on 25 January 1978 in Kryvyi Rih, then in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.[16][17][18][19] His father, Oleksandr Zelenskyy, is a professor and computer scientist, and the head of the Department of Cybernetics and Computing Hardware at the Kryvyi Rih State University of Economics and Technology; his mother, Rymma Zelenska, used to work as an engineer.[20][21][22] His grandfather, Semyon (Simon) Ivanovych Zelenskyy, served as Infantry reaching the rank of Colonel[4] in the Red Army (in the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Division)[23] during World War II; Semyon's father and three brothers died in the Holocaust.[24][25] Prior to starting elementary school, Zelenskyy lived for four years in the Mongolian city of Erdenet, where his father worked.[17] Zelenskyy grew up speaking Russian.[26][4] At the age of 16, he passed the Test of English as a Foreign Language and received an education grant to study in Israel, but his father did not allow him to go.[27] He later earned a law degree from the Kryvyi Rih Institute of Economics, then a department of Kyiv National Economic University and now part of Kryvyi Rih National University, but did not go on to work in the legal field.[17][28]
Entertainment career
At age 17, he joined the local KVN[29] (a comedy competition) team and was soon invited to join the united Ukrainian team "Zaporizhia-Kryvyi Rih-Transit" which performed in the KVN's Major League and eventually won in 1997.[17][30][31] That same year, he created and headed the Kvartal 95 team which later transformed into the comedy outfit Kvartal 95. From 1998 to 2003, Kvartal 95 performed in the Major League and the highest open Ukrainian league of KVN, the team members spent a lot of the time in Moscow and constantly toured around post-Soviet countries.[17][30] In 2003, Kvartal 95 started producing TV shows for the Ukrainian TV channel 1+1, and in 2005, the team moved to fellow Ukrainian TV channel Inter.[17]
In 2008, he starred in the feature film Love in the Big City, and its sequel, Love in the Big City 2.[17] Zelenskyy continued his movie career with the film Office Romance. Our Time in 2011 and with Rzhevsky Versus Napoleon in 2012.[17]Love in the Big City 3 was released in January 2014.[17] Zelenskyy also played the leading role in the 2012 film 8 First Dates and in sequels which were produced in 2015 and 2016.[17] He recorded the voice of Paddington Bear in the Ukrainian dubbing of Paddington (2014) and Paddington 2 (2017).[32]
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Zelenskyy in Prague in 2009Zelenskyy was a member of the board and the general producer of the TV channel Inter from 2010 to 2012.[28]
In August 2014, Zelenskyy spoke out against the intention of the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture to ban Russian artists from Ukraine.[33] Since 2015, Ukraine has banned Russian artists and other Russian works of culture from entering Ukraine.[34] In 2018, the romantic comedyLove in the Big City 2 starring Zelenskyy was banned in Ukraine.[35]
After the Ukrainian media had reported that during the war in Donbas Zelenskyy's Kvartal 95 had donated 1 million hryvnias to the Ukrainian army, some Russian politicians and artists petitioned for a ban on his works in Russia.[36][b] Once again, Zelenskyy spoke out against the intention of the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture to ban Russian artists from Ukraine.[33]
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Kvartal 95 performance in 2018In 2015, Zelenskyy became the star of the television series Servant of the People, where he played the role of the president of Ukraine.[28] In the series, Zelenskyy's character was a high-school history teacher in his 30s who won the presidential election after a viral video showed him ranting against government corruption in Ukraine.
The comedy series Svaty ("In-laws"), in which Zelenskyy appeared, was banned in Ukraine in 2017,[37] but unbanned in March 2019.[38]
Zelenskyy worked mostly in Russian language productions. His first role in the Ukrainian language was the romantic comedy I, You, He, She,[39] which appeared on the screens of Ukraine in December 2018.[40] The first version of the script was written in Ukrainian but was translated into Russian for the Lithuanian actress Agnė Grudytė. Then the movie was dubbed into Ukrainian.[41]
2019 presidential campaign
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Zelenskyy and then Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, 19 April 2019In March 2018, members of Zelenskyy's production company Kvartal 95 registered a new political party called Servant of the People– the same name as the television program that Zelenskyy had starred in over the previous three years.[42][43] Although Zelenskyy denied any immediate plans to enter politics and said he had only registered the party name to prevent it being appropriated by others,[44] there was widespread speculation that he was planning to run. As early as October 2018, three months before his campaign announcement and six months before the presidential election, he was already a frontrunner in opinion polls.[45][43] After months of ambiguous statements,[44][43] on 31 December, less than four months from the election, Zelenskyy announced his candidacy for president of Ukraine on the New Year's Eve evening show on the TV channel 1+1.[46] His announcement up-staged the New Year's Eve address of incumbent president Petro Poroshenko on the same channel,[46] which Zelenskyy said was unintentional and attributed to a technical glitch.[47]
Zelenskyy's presidential campaign against Poroshenko was almost entirely virtual.[48][49] He did not release a detailed policy platform[50] and his engagement with mainstream media was minimal;[48][c] he instead reached out to the electorate via social media channels and YouTube clips.[48] In place of traditional campaign rallies, he conducted stand-up comedy routines across Ukraine with his production company Kvartal 95.[52][53] He styled himself as an anti-establishment, anti-corruption figure, although he was not generally described as a populist.[50] He said he wished to restore trust in politicians, "to bring professional, decent people to power" and to "change the mood and timbre of the political establishment".[42][43][54] On 16 April 2019, a few days before the election, 20 Ukrainian news outlets called on Zelenskyy to "stop avoiding journalists".[48] Zelenskyy stated that he was not hiding from journalists but that he did not want to go to talk shows where "people of the old power" were "just doing PR" and that he did not have time to satisfy all interview requests.[55]
Prior to the elections, Zelenskyy presented a team that included former Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk and others.[56][51] During the campaign, concerns were raised over his links to the oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi.[57] President Poroshenko and his supporters claimed that Zelenskyy's victory would benefit Russia.[58][59][60][61] On 19 April 2019 at Olimpiyskiy National Sports Complex presidential debates were held in the form of a show.[62][63][64] In his introductory speech, Zelenskyy acknowledged that in 2014 he voted for Poroshenko, but "I was mistaken. We were mistaken. We voted for one Poroshenko, but received another. The first appears when there are video cameras, the other Petro sends Medvedchuk privietiki (greetings) to Moscow".[62] Although Zelenskyy initially said he would only serve a single term, he walked back this promise in May 2021, saying he had not yet made up his mind.[65]
Zelenskyy stated that as president he would develop the economy and attract investment to Ukraine through "a restart of the judicial system" and restoring confidence in the state.[66] He also proposed a tax amnesty and a 5 % flat tax for big business which could be increased "in dialogue with them and if everyone agrees".[66] According to Zelenskyy, if people would notice that his new government "works honestly from the first day", they would start paying their taxes.[66]
Zelenskyy clearly won the first round of elections on 31 March 2019.[67] In the second round, on 21 April 2019, he received 73% of the vote to Poroshenko's 25%, and was elected President of Ukraine.[68][69] Polish president Andrzej Duda was one of the first European leaders to congratulate Zelenskyy.[70] French president Emmanuel Macron received Zelenskyy at the Élysée Palace in Paris on 12 April 2019.[71] On 22 April, U.S. president Donald Trump congratulated Zelenskyy on his victory over the telephone.[72][73]European Commission president Jean Claude Juncker and European Council president Donald Tusk also issued a joint letter of congratulations and stated that the European Union (EU) will work to speed up the implementation of the remainder of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area.[74]
Presidency
Presidential styles of
Volodymyr Zelenskyy![Flag of the President of Ukraine.svg]()
Reference style Його Високоповажність, Президент України.
"His Excellency, the President of Ukraine"Spoken style Президент України.
"President of Ukraine"Alternative style Пане Президенте.
"Mr President"![]()
Zelenskyy with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Federal Chancellery Complex in Berlin, June 2019.![]()
Zelenskyy and Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko in Zhytomyr, October 2019.Zelenskyy was inaugurated on 20 May 2019.[75] Various foreign officials attended the ceremony in Ukraine's parliament (Verkhovna Rada), including Salome Zourabichvili (Georgia), Kersti Kaljulaid (Estonia), Raimonds Vējonis (Latvia), Dalia Grybauskaitė (Lithuania), János Áder (Hungary), Maroš Šefčovič (European Union), and Rick Perry (United States).[76] Zelenskyy is the first Jewish president; with Volodymyr Groysman as Prime Minister, Ukraine became the first country other than Israel to have a Jewish head of state and head of government.[19] In his inaugural address, Zelenskyy dissolved the then Ukrainian parliament and called for early parliamentary elections (which had originally been due to be held in October of that year).[77] One of Zelenskyy's coalition partners, the People's Front, opposed the move and withdrew from the ruling coalition.[78]
On 28 May, Zelenskyy restored the Ukrainian citizenship of Mikheil Saakashvili.[79]
Zelenskyy's first major proposal to change the electoral system was rejected by the Ukrainian parliament.[80]
In addition, on 6 June, lawmakers refused to include Zelenskyy's key initiative on reintroducing criminal liability for illegal enrichment in the parliament's agenda, and instead included a similar bill proposed by a group of deputies.[81][82] In June 2019 it was announced that the president's third major initiative, which seeks to remove immunity from lawmakers, diplomats and judges, would be submitted after the July 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election.[83] This initiative was completed on 3 September, when the new parliament passed a bill stripping lawmakers of legal immunity, delivering Zelenskyy a legislative victory by fulfilling one of his key campaign promises.[84]
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U.S. vice president Mike Pence and U.S. delegation meets with Zelenskyy in Warsaw on 1 September 2019![]()
Zelenskyy meets with U.S. president Donald Trump in New York City on 25 September 2019On 8 July, Zelenskyy ordered the cancellation of the annual Kyiv Independence Day Parade on Maidan Nezalezhnosti, citing costs. Despite this, Zelenskyy highlighted that the day would "honor heroes" on Independence Day, however the "format will be new".[85][86][87] He also proposed to spend the money that would have been used to finance the parade on veterans.[88]
In 2020, Zelenskyy's party proposed reforms to Ukraine's media laws with the intent to increase competition and loosen the dominance of Ukrainian oligarchs on television and radio broadcasters. Critics said it risked increasing media censorship in Ukraine[89] because its clause of criminal responsibility for the distribution of disinformation could be abused.[90]
Zelenskyy was criticized for a secret trip to Oman in January 2020 that was not published on his official schedule and on which he appeared to mix a personal holiday with government business. Although the president's office said the trip had been paid for by Zelenskyy himself and not with government money, Zelenskyy came under heavy criticism for the lack of transparency around the trip, which was compared unfavourably to a secret vacation his predecessor Petro Poroshenko took in the Maldives, and which Zelenskyy himself had criticized at the time.[91][92]
In January 2021, parliament passed a bill updating and reforming Ukraine's referendum laws,[93] which Ukraine's Constitutional Court had declared unconstitutional in 2018.[94] Fixing the referendum law had been one of Zelenskyy's campaign promises.[93]
In June 2021, Zelenskyy submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a bill creating a public registry of Ukraine's oligarchs, banning them from participating in privatizations of state-owned companies, and forbidding them from contributing financially to politicians. Opposition party leaders supported Zelenskyy's goal of reducing oligarchs' influence on politics in Ukraine but were critical of his approach, saying the public register would be both dangerous, as it concentrated power in the president; and ineffective, since oligarchs were merely a "symbol" of more deeply-rooted corruption.[95] The bill was passed into law in September 2021.[96]
Cabinets and administration
Zelenskyy appointed Andriy Bohdan as head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine. Prior to this, Bohdan had been the lawyer of Ukrainian oligarchIhor Kolomoyskyi.[97] Under the rules of Lustration in Ukraine, introduced in 2014 following Euromaidan, Bohdan is not entitled to hold any state office until 2024 (because of his government post during the Second Azarov Government).[98] Bohdan, however, contended that because heading the presidential administration is not considered civil service work, lustration did not apply to him.[99] A number of the members of the Presidential Administration Zelenskyy appointed were former colleagues from his former production company, Kvartal 95,[97] including Ivan Bakanov, who became deputy head of the Ukrainian Secret Service.[100] Former Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal declined an appointment as deputy head of the presidential administration, but did agree to serve as the Ukrainian representative of the international courts concerning Russia.[101] Zelenskyy's requests to replace the foreign minister, defence minister, chief prosecutor and head of Ukraine's security service were rejected by parliament.[102][103] Zelenskyy also dismissed and replaced 20 of the governors of Ukraine's 24 oblasts.[104]
Honcharuk government
In the 21 July 2019 parliamentary election, Zelenskyy's political party, Servant of the People, won the first single-party majority in modern Ukrainian history in parliament, with 43 % of the party-list vote. His party gained 254 of the 424 seats.[105]
Following the elections, Zelenskyy nominated Oleksiy Honcharuk as prime minister, who was quickly confirmed by parliament. Parliament also confirmed Andrii Zahorodniuk as defence minister, Vadym Prystaiko as foreign minister and Ivan Bakanov as head of the SBU.[106]Arsen Avakov, a controversial figure due to longstanding corruption allegations,[107] was kept on as interior minister, with Honcharuk arguing that the relatively inexperienced government needed experienced administrators and that Avakov had been "'drawn red lines' that cannot be crossed."[108]
Zelenskyy dismissed Bohdan as head of his presidential administration on 11 February 2020 and appointed Andriy Yermak as his successor the same day.[109]
Shmyhal government
On 6 March 2020, the Honcharuk government gave way to the government of Denys Shmyhal. At the time, there was disquiet in the press over the hasty departure of Honcharuk.[110] In his 4 March address to the Rada,[111] Zelenskyy recommitted to reforms domestic and financial, and remarked that he "cannot always become a psychologist for people, a crisis manager for someone, a collector who requires honestly earned money, and a nanny of the ministry in charge."[citation needed] By September 2020, Zelenskyy's approval ratings had fallen to less than 32 %.[112]
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Zelenskyy and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 16 October 2020On 24 March 2021, Zelenskyy signed the Decree 117/2021 approving the "strategy for de-occupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol."[113]
Attempts to end the Donbas conflict
One of Zelenskyy's central campaign promises had been to end the war in Donbas and resolve the Russia-sponsored separatist movement there.[114] On 3 June, Zelenskyy appointed former president Leonid Kuchma as Ukraine's representative in the Tripartite Contact Group for a settlement in the conflict.[115] On 11 July 2019, Zelenskyy held his first telephone conversation with Russian president Vladimir Putin, during which he urged Putin to enter into talks mediated by European countries.[116][117] The two leaders also discussed the exchange of prisoners held by both sides.[117] In October 2019, Zelenskyy announced a preliminary deal struck with the separatists, under which the Ukrainian government would respect elections held in the region in exchange for Russia withdrawing its unmarked troops.[114] The deal was met with heavy criticism and protests by both politicians and the Ukrainian public. Detractors noted that elections held in Donbas were unlikely to be free and fair, that the separatists had long driven out most pro-Ukrainian residents out of the region to ensure a pro-Russia majority, and that it would be impossible to ensure Russia kept its end of the agreement.[114] Zelenskyy defended his negotiations, saying the elections would not be held before a Russian withdrawal.[118] The agreement failed to ease the conflict, as the separatists continued their attacks and Russia continued providing them with weapons and ammunition.[119] Several Ukrainian nationalist militias and former militias also refused to accept the agreement, including the far-right Azov fighters in the Luhansk region of Donbas. Zelenskyy met personally with some of these groups and tried to convince them to surrender their unregistered weapons and accept the peace accord. Andriy Biletsky, the leader of the far-right National Corps and first commander of Azov, accused Zelenskyy of being disrespectful to army veterans and of acting on behalf of the Kremlin by leaving Ukrainians vulnerable to Russian aggression.[120][121] Ultimately, the peace deal failed to reduce the violence, much less end the war.[119]
In December 2019, Russia and Ukraine agreed to resume talks mediated by France and Germany under the so-called Normandy Format, which had been abandoned in 2016; it was Zelensky's first face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin.[122] In July 2020, Zelenskyy announced a formal ceasefire with the separatists — the more than twentieth such attempt since the war began in 2014.[123] Although the ceasefire was frequently violated over the next few years and overall violence remained high, ceasefire violations in 2020 did decrease by over 50% compared to the previous year.[124]
UIA Flight 752
On 8 January 2020, the Presidential Office announced that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was cutting his trip to Oman short due to the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 plane crash in nearby Iran the same day.[125] The same day, internet news site Obozrevatel.com released information that on 7 January 2020, Ukrainian politician of the Opposition Platform — For LifeViktor Medvedchuk– who has exclusive relations with the current president of Russia– may have arrived in Oman.[126][127] Soon, rumors began that Zelenskyy may have had some additional meetings beside the ones that were announced.[128] On 14 January 2020, Andriy Yermak dismissed the rumors as speculations and baseless conspiracy theories,[129] while Medvedchuk stated that the plane was used by his older daughter's family to fly from Oman to Moscow.[130] Later, Yermak contacted the on-line newspaper Ukrainian Truth and gave more details about the visit to Oman and the plane crash in Iran.[131]
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Zelenskyy and Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates, in February 2021On 17 January 2020, the presidential appointee Minister of Foreign Affairs Vadym Prystaiko was unable to give answers during the "times of questions to the government" in parliament when the people's deputies of Ukraine asked him about the visit's official agenda, the invitation from Oman, officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who were preparing the visit, as well as how the president actually crossed the border while visiting Oman.[132][133] On 20 January 2020, Prystaiko followed up by giving a briefing to the press in the Office of the president of Ukraine and saying that he would explain everything about the visit that when the time came.[134]
Foreign relations
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Zelenskyy, Ukraine's defense minister Andriy Taran and U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin on 31 August 2021![]()
Zelenskyy and U.S. president Joe Biden on 1 September 2021Zelenskyy's first official trip abroad as president was to Brussels in June 2019, where he met with European Union and NATO officials.[135]
In August 2019, Zelenskyy promised to lift the moratorium on exhuming Polish mass graves in Ukraine after the previous Ukrainian government banned the Polish side from carrying out any exhumations of Polish victims of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army-perpetrated Volhynian massacres, following the removal of a memorial to the Ukrainian Insurgent Army in Hruszowice, southeastern Poland.[136]
In September 2019, it was reported that U.S. president Donald Trump had allegedly blocked payment of a congressionally mandated $400 million military aid package to Ukraine to pressure Zelenskyy during a July phone call between the two presidents to investigate alleged wrongdoing by Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden,[61][137] who took a board seat on Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma Holdings.[138] This report was the catalyst for the Trump–Ukraine scandal and the impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump. Zelenskyy has denied that he was pressured by Trump and declared that "he does not want to interfere in a foreign election."[139]
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Zelenskyy and Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev on 17 December 2019On a trip to the United States in September 2021, Zelenskyy engaged in talks and commitments with U.S. president Joe Biden,[140]Secretary of DefenseLloyd Austin, Secretary of EnergyJennifer Granholm,[141] and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.[142] President Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska also took part in the opening of the Ukrainian House in Washington, D.C.[141] On the same trip, he met with Apple CEO Tim Cook[143] and with Ukrainians in senior positions at Silicon Valley tech companies[144] and spoke at Stanford University.[145] While Zelenskyy was still in the U.S., just after delivering a speech at the United Nations, an assassination attempt was made in Ukraine on Serhiy Shefir, his closest aide. Shefir was unhurt in the attack, although his driver was hospitalized with three bullet wounds.[146]
2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis
In April 2021, in response to Russian military build-up at the Ukrainian borders, Zelenskyy spoke to American president Joe Biden and urged NATO members to speed up Ukraine's request for membership.[147]
On 26 November 2021, Zelenskyy accused Russia and Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov of backing a plan to overthrow his government.[148] Russia denied any involvement in a coup plot and Akhmetov said in a statement that "the information made public by Volodymyr Zelenskiy about attempts to draw me into some kind of coup is an absolute lie. I am outraged by the spread of this lie, no matter what the president's motives are."[149][150] In December 2021, Zelenskyy called for preemptive action against Russia.[151]
On 19 January 2022, Zelenskyy said in a video message that the country's citizens should not panic and appealed to the media to be "methods of mass information and not mass hysteria."[152][153] On 28 January, Zelenskyy called on the West not to create a "panic" in his country over a potential Russian invasion, adding that constant warnings of an "imminent" threat of invasion are putting the economy of Ukraine at risk.[154] Zelenskyy said that "we do not see a bigger escalation" than in early 2021 when Russia's military build-up started.[155] Zelenskyy and U.S. president Joe Biden disagreed on how imminent the threat was.[156][157]
On 19 February, as worries of a Russian invasion of Ukraine grew, Zelenskyy warned a security forum that Western nations should abandon their "appeasement" attitude toward Moscow. "Ukraine has been granted security assurances in exchange for giving up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal. We don't have any firearms. And there's no security... But we have a right to urge a transformation from an appeasement policy to one that ensures security and peace," he stated.[158]
In the early hours of 24 February, shortly before the start of the Russian invasion, Zelenskyy recorded an address to the citizens of both Ukraine and Russia. In part of the address, he spoke in Russian to the people of Russia, appealing to them to pressure their leadership to prevent war. He also refuted claims of the Russian government about the presence of neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian government and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas region, while highlighting his personal connections to the area.[159]
Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal after signing of the application for membership in the European Union during the war on 28 February 2022On the morning of 24 February, Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas. Russian missiles struck a number of military targets in Ukraine, and Zelenskyy declared martial law.[160] Zelenskyy also announced that diplomatic relations with Russia were being severed, effective immediately.[161] Later in the day, he announced general mobilisation.[162]
On 25 February, Zelenskyy said that despite Russia's claim that it was targeting only military sites, civilian sites were also being hit.[163] In an early morning address that day, Zelenskyy said that his intelligence services had identified him as Russia's top target, but that he is staying in Kyiv and his family will remain in the country. "They want to destroy Ukraine politically by destroying the head of state", he said.[164]
In the early hours of 26 February, during the most significant assault by Russian troops on the capital of Kyiv, the United States government and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged Zelenskyy to evacuate to a safer location, and both offered assistance for such an effort. Zelenskyy turned down both offers and opted to remain in Kyiv with its defense forces, saying that "the fight is here [in Kyiv]; I need ammunition, not a ride".[165][166][167]
Zelenskyy has gained worldwide recognition as the wartime leader of Ukraine during the Russian invasion; historian Andrew Roberts compared him to Winston Churchill.[168][169]Harvard Political Review said that Zelenskyy "has harnessed the power of social media to become history's first truly online wartime leader, bypassing traditional gatekeepers as he uses the internet to reach out to the people."[170] He has been described as a national hero or a "global hero" by many commentators, including publications such as The Hill, Deutsche Welle, Der Spiegel and USA Today.[168][171][172][173]BBC News and The Guardian have reported that his response to the invasion has received praise even from previous critics.[167][174]
During the invasion, three attempts to assassinate Zelenskyy were prevented due to tips from Russian FSB employees who opposed the invasion. Two of the attempts were carried out by the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary force, and one by the Kadyrovites, the personal guard of Chechen leaderRamzan Kadyrov.[175]
While speaking about Ukrainian civilians who were killed by Russian forces, Zelenskyy said:[176]
"We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will punish everyone who committed atrocities in this war... We will find every scum who was shelling our cities, our people, who was shooting the missiles, who was giving orders. You will not have a quiet place on this earth – except for a grave."Zelenskyy has been called by the Times of Israel the "Jewish defender of Ukrainian democracy".[25] Gal Beckerman of The Atlantic described Zelenskyy as having "[given] the world a Jewish Hero".[177]
On 7 March 2022, Czech president Milos Zeman decided to award Zelenskyy with the highest state award of the Czech Republic, the Order of the White Lion, for "his bravery and courage in the face of Russia's invasion".[178]
Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for direct talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin,[179] saying: "Good Lord, what do you want? Leave our land. If you don't want to leave now, sit down with me at the negotiating table. But not from 30 meters away, like with Macron and Scholz. I don't bite."[180]
On 7 March, as a condition for ending the invasion, the Kremlin demanded Ukraine's neutrality, recognition of Crimea, which had been annexed by Russia, as Russian territory, and recognition of the self-proclaimedseparatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.[181] On 8 March, Zelenskyy expressed willingness to discuss Putin's demands.[179] Zelenskyy said he is ready for dialogue, but "not for capitulation".[182] He proposed a new collective security agreement for Ukraine with the United States, Turkey, France, Germany and Russia as an alternative to the country joining NATO.[183] Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party said that Ukraine would not give up its claims on Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.[184]
Political views
Economic issues
In a mid-June interview with BIHUS info [uk] a representative of the president of Ukraine at the Cabinet of Ministers, Andriy Herus [uk] stated that Zelenskyy had never promised to lower communal tariffs, but that a campaign video in which Zelenskyy stated that the price of natural gas in Ukraine could fall by 20–30 % or maybe more was a not a direct promise but actually “half-hinting" and "joking".[185] Notably, Zelenskyy's election manifesto mentioned tariffs only once—that money raised from a capital amnesty would go towards "lowering the tariff burden on low-income citizens".[186][187]
Foreign policy
During his presidential campaign, Zelenskyy said that he supported Ukraine's becoming a member of the European Union and NATO, but he said Ukrainian voters should decide on the country's membership of these two organisations in referenda.[188] At the same time, he believed that the Ukrainian people had already chosen "eurointegration".[188][189] Zelenskyy's close advisor Ivan Bakanov also said that Zelenskyy's policy is supportive of membership of both the EU and NATO, and proposes holding referendums on membership.[190] Zelenskyy's electoral programme claimed that Ukrainian NATO membership is "the choice of the Maidan and the course that is enshrined in the Constitution, in addition, it is an instrument for strengthening our defense capability".[191] The program states that Ukraine should set the goal to apply for a NATO Membership Action Plan in 2024.[191] The programme also states that Zelenskyy "will do everything to ensure" that Ukraine can apply for European Union membership in 2024.[192] Two days before the second round, Zelenskyy stated that he wanted to build "a strong, powerful, free Ukraine, which is not the younger sister of Russia, which is not a corrupt partner of Europe, but our independent Ukraine".[193]
In October 2020, he spoke in support of Azerbaijan in regards to the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenians over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Zelenskyy said: "We support Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty just as Azerbaijan always supports our territorial integrity and sovereignty."[194]
In February 2022, he applied for Ukraine to join the European Union.[195][196]
Zelenskyy has tried to position Ukraine as a neutral party in the political and trade tensions between the United States and China. In January 2021, Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axios that he does not perceive China as a geopolitical threat and that he does not agree with the United States assertions that it represents one.[197]
Russo-Ukrainian War
Zelenskyy supported the late 2013 and early 2014 Euromaidan movement. During the war in Donbas, he actively supported the Ukrainian army.[28] Zelenskyy helped fund a volunteer battalion fighting on Donbas.[198]
In a 2014 interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda in Ukraine, Zelenskyy said that he would have liked to pay a visit to Crimea, but would avoid it because "armed people are there".[199] In August 2014, Zelenskyy performed for Ukrainian troops in Mariupol and later his studio donated a million hryvnias to the Ukrainian army.[200] Regarding the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Zelenskyy said that, speaking realistically, it would be possible to return Crimea to Ukrainian control only after a regime change in Russia.[201]
In an interview in December 2018, Zelenskyy stated that as president he would try to end the ongoing war in Donbas by negotiating with Russia.[202][203] As he considered the leaders of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic (DPR and LPR) to be Russia's "puppets", it would "make no sense to speak with them".[203] He did not rule out holding a referendum on the issue.[204][203] In an interview published three days before the 2019 presidential election (on 21 April), Zelenskyy stated that he was against granting the Donbas region "special status".[205] In the interview he also said that if he were elected president he would not sign a law on amnesty for the militants of the DPR and LPR.[205]
In response to suggestions to the contrary, he stated in April 2019 that he regarded Russian president Vladimir Putin"as an enemy".[206] On 2 May 2019, Zelenskyy wrote on Facebook that "the border is the only thing Russia and Ukraine have in common".[207]
Zelenskyy opposes the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, calling it "a dangerous weapon, not only for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe."[208]
Government reform
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Zelenskyy with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in June 2019During the presidential campaign, Zelenskyy promised bills to fight corruption, including removal of immunity from the president of the country, members of the Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament) and judges, a law about impeachment, reform of election laws, and providing efficient trial by jury. He promised to bring the salary for military personnel "to the level of NATO standards".[209]
Although Zelenskyy prefers elections with open list election ballots, after he called the snap 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election his draft law "On amendments to some laws of Ukraine in connection with the change of the electoral system for the election of people's deputies" proposed to hold the election with closed list because the 60-day term to the snap election did not "leave any chances for the introduction of this system".[210]
Social issues
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Zelenskyy in the Donetsk region in June 2021Zelenskyy supports the free distribution of medical cannabis, free abortion in Ukraine, and the legalisation of prostitution and gambling.[205] He opposes the legalisation of firearms.[205]
Zelenskyy stated in April 2019 that "of course" he supports the decommunization of Ukraine, but is not happy with its current form.[211][205] In an interview with RBC-Ukraine in April 2019, Zelenskyy said that OUN-B leader Stepan Bandera, a controversial figure in Ukrainian history, was "a hero for a certain part of Ukrainians, and this is a normal and cool thing. He was one of those who defended the freedom of Ukraine. But I think that when we name so many streets, bridges by the same name, this is not quite right."[211][212] In that same interview, Zelenskyy went on to criticise the overuse of tributes to Taras Shevchenko, a famous 19th century Ukrainian poet and painter. Zelenskyy concluded: "We must remember the heroes of today, heroes of the arts, heroes of literature, simply heroes of Ukraine. Why don't we use their names – the names of the heroes that today unite Ukraine?"[211]
Zelenskyy opposes targeting the Russian language in Ukraine and banning artists for their political opinions (such as those viewed by the Government as anti-Ukrainian).[213][214] In April 2019, he stated that he was not against a Ukrainian language quota (on radio and TV), although he noted they could be tweaked.[211] He also said that Russian artists "who have turned into (anti-Ukrainian) politicians" should remain banned from entering Ukraine.[205]
Pandora Papers
The October 2021 Pandora Papers revealed that Zelenskyy and his chief aide and the head of the Security Service of UkraineIvan Bakanov operated a network of offshore companies in the British Virgin Islands, Cyprus, and Belize. These companies included some that owned expensive London property.[215] Around the time of his 2019 election, Zelenskyy handed his shares in a key offshore company over to Shefir, but the two men appear to have made an arrangement for Zelenskyy's family to continue receiving the money from these companies.[215] Zelenskyy's election campaign had centred on pledges to clean up the government of Ukraine.[215] In a 17 October 2021 interview with ICTV, Zelenskyy did not deny that in 2012 he used offshore companies.[216] He claimed he did this to avoid (his then satirical TV shows) being "influenced by politics".[216] Zelenskyy stressed that neither he nor any member of "Kvartal 95" were involved in money laundering.[216]
Awards and decorations
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Czech Republic: ![CZE Rad Bileho Lva 1 tridy BAR.svg]()
Order of the White Lion, First Class (2022)[217]
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Latvia: ![LVA Order of Viesturs V kl.PNG]()
Commander of Grand Cross of the Order of Viesturs (2022)[218]
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Lithuania: ![LTU Order of Vytautas the Great with the Golden Chain BAR.png]()
Order of Vytautas the Great with the Golden Chain (2022)[219]
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Poland: ![Noribbon.svg]()
Jan Karski Eagle Award (2022)[220]
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United States: ![]()
Ukraine:
Personal life
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Olena Zelenska in 2019 parliamentary electionIn September 2003, Zelenskyy married Olena Kiyashko,[17] with whom he had attended school.[17] The couple's first daughter, Oleksandra, was born in July 2004.[17] Their son, Kyrylo, was born in January 2013.[17] In Zelenskyy's 2014 movie 8 New Dates, their daughter played Sasha, the daughter of the protagonist.[17] In 2016, she participated in the show The Comedy Comet Company Comedy's Kids and won 50,000 hryvnias.[17]
Zelenskyy's first language is Russian, and he is also fluent in Ukrainian and English.[223][224] His assets were worth about 37 million hryvnias (about $1.5 million USD) in 2018.[225]
Selected filmography
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The film premiere of I, You, He, SheFilm
Year Title Role 2009 Love in the Big City Igor 2011 Office Romance. Our Time Anatoly Efremovich Novoseltsev 2012 Love in the Big City 2 Igor Rzhevsky Versus Napoleon Napoleon 8 First Dates Nikita Sokolov 2014 Love in Vegas Igor Zelenskyy Paddington (Ukrainian dub) Paddington Bear (voice) 2015 8 New Dates Nikita Andreevich Sokolov 2018 I, You, He, She Maksym Tkachenko Television series and shows
Year Title Role Notes 2006 Dancing with the Stars (Ukraine) as contestant 2008–2012 Svaty ("In-Laws") as producer 2015–2019 Servant of the People (TV series) Vasyl Petrovych Holoborodko Notes
- Zelenskyy's name is transliterated in several different ways. Zelenskyy is the transliteration on his passport, and his administration has used it since he assumed presidency in 2019.[2][3]
- Since 2015, Ukraine has banned Russian artists and other Russian works of culture from entering Ukraine.[34]
