https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPmG-5sOjR8&ab_channel=CBCNews
Polls show Conservatives moving further ahead as Liberals continue to slide
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rq4ihWz9M0g&ab_channel=CBCNews
Federal Leaders' Debate 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tipHN1HAHI8&ab_channel=DavidAmos
David Coon and the media know I am the guy saying that since 2004
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxPo4OvbYmc&ab_channel=NBNDP
Dominic Cardy on honesty and accountability from our political leaders
https://thebruns.ca/2019/10/04/conservative-candidate-andrea-johnson/
Conservative Candidate Andrea Johnson
Andrea Johnson helped make history last spring when she was part of the first all female Conservative Party nomination race in the Fredericton riding.
Originally from Ontario, Johnson has worn many hats during her career. She began in tech startups in the private sector before moving into provincial government under an economic file. There she was in charge of inciting businesses to come to New Brunswick.
She was inspired to come to politics upon discovering that a number of issues she is interested in are not being sufficiently addressed. Hoping to make tangible change in her local area, she considered involvement at a municipal level, before deciding to run federally.
“I wanted to do something. I want to be able to make a difference, and represent people,” said Johnson.
Johnson’s primary focus would be around making life more affordable for her constituents, also mentioning her passions for healthcare, taxation, and immigration.
She believes current taxation rates are causing people to leave the province, and reformed immigration could help fill that gap. Informed by her work in provincial government, she thinks easing the transition educationally would encourage economic immigrants to settle and stay.
“We need the best and the brightest to choose Canada. And the only way they’re going to choose us is if they can come here and have their credentials recognized,” said Johnson.
Johnson prides herself on being what she states is not a “typical politician”. As such, she feels that she would be able to fully represent the people of Fredericton, even if it meant voicing opinions counter to the rest of her party.
“I am not your typical person that’s putting their name on a ballot. I’m not worried about ruffling the leaders feathers or upsetting caucus. To me, you’re hired to do a job, and your job is to represent your people,” she said.
As a single mother of four children of voting age, Johnson says she understands the concerns of the younger demographic. She encourages young voters to keep their representatives accountable, communicating the policy changes they want to see, and to go to the polls fully informed to cast their vote.
“Start holding people accountable and challenging everything. Everything. If something doesn’t make sense, challenge it every day,” she said.
https://twitter.com/DavidRayAmos/with_replies
David Raymond Amos @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @alllibertynews and 49 others
https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2020/06/higgss-popularity-has-soared-but-pcs.html
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-analysis-francophones-maintain-political-distancing-from-pcs-1.5598444
Higgs's popularity has soared, but PCs still struggling to unlock the francophone vote
PC minority government is scoring record-high approval ratings
· CBC News· Posted: Jun 05, 2020 5:00 AM AT
A political poll has showed Premier Blaine Higgs is enjoying an unprecedented political honeymoon because of his handling of COVID-19. (CBC)
Premier Blaine Higgs heads into summer enjoying an unprecedented political honeymoon because of his handling of COVID-19.
But it's not yet enough for a breakthrough among francophone voters, who are still practising political distancing from the Progressive Conservatives.
Overall, the PC minority government, which was on the verge of being toppled just three months ago, is scoring record-high approval ratings in the midst of the pandemic.
The Angus Reid Institute recently had Higgs with the highest approval rating of any premier in Canada at 80 per cent.
And Narrative Research, formerly Corporate Research Associates, says the government's 81 per cent satisfaction result is the highest it has ever recorded in New Brunswick since it began polling more than 40 years ago.
Even 74 per cent of francophone voters, chronically cool to Higgs since he became PC leader in 2016, told Narrative they're mostly or completely satisfied with his job performance.
Yet many of those satisfied francophones remain reluctant to actually vote for him.
The Liberals had 51 per cent support compared to 32 per cent for the PCs among decided francophone voters.
"Among francophones in the north, we're seeing an increase in support for the PCs, but not necessarily enough that we can see them winning many seats in northern New Brunswick," says the CBC's polling analyst Éric Grenier.
Majority for PCs if election held now
CBC’s polling analyst Éric Grenier said while support for Premier Higgs by francophones in northern New Brunswick has increased it may not lead to winning more seats in the next election.
The overall 18-point PC lead provincially over the Liberals means a majority government for Higgs would "almost certainly be the result" if an election were held now, Grenier says.
But the seat gains would most likely come in the Fredericton and Moncton areas.
The Liberals say the high poll numbers reflect satisfaction with the province's collective effort on COVID-19, one that includes Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell and, not incidentally, an all-party cabinet committee on which Liberal leader Kevin Vickers sits.
"It's a combination, it's not one specific government or one specific political party," says Liberal MLA and health critic Jean-Claude d'Amours.
But PC party executive director Andrea Johnson says a lot of the credit goes to Higgs.
"I think it shows the majority of the province has confidence in how the premier has led this government and the province through this pandemic."
D'Amours says the high marks for Higgs also reflect a national phenomenon.
Grenier agrees and says another aspect of the New Brunswick trend is matched elsewhere: many voters are satisfied with their provincial governments but won't necessarily cast ballots to re-elect them.
"Even though they might like the way a leader is handling this particular issue doesn't mean they would vote for them in an election," Grenier says.
Francophone support for PCs has grown
Liberal MLA and health critic Jean-Claude d’Amours said the high rating is a combination of all the work done by the all-party committee. (CBC)
That's not to take away from the PC progress among francophone voters. The 32 per cent support is double what Narrative found last fall.
At that time, the PCs were at 16 per cent among francophones, in third place behind the Greens at 20 per cent and the Liberals at 55 per cent.
But the gains are unlikely to allow the PCs to challenge Liberal dominance in heavily francophone ridings.
"The [Liberal] lead isn't as big as it was just a few months ago," Grenier says.
"But a lot of the seats they won in northern New Brunswick were won by such huge margins that even if we see a 10 to 20 point swing between the two parties, it still might not be enough to flip a lot of those seats."
When Narrative measured party support in northern ridings, as opposed to among francophone voters, the Liberal lead over the PCs was 43-39, within the poll's margin of error and thus a statistical tie.
Grenier says that might allow the PCs to make gains in northern ridings with mixed English-French populations.
PC hopes of broadening support among francophones have been hampered by the premier's own inability to speak French and his involvement three decades ago with the anti-bilingualism Confederation of Regions Party.
He has said repeatedly that his views on language rights have changed since then.
The PCs elected a single francophone MLA in the 2018 election, Robert Gauvin in Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou, but he quit the party in February to sit as an independent.
Gauvin left over a plan to close some small-hospital emergency departments at night, saying the government wasn't sensitive to the realities of francophone and northern New Brunswickers.
The hospital plan was quickly reversed but d'Amours says the controversy, and other concerns such as some Service New Brunswick outlets remaining closed, explain the poor PC results in francophone and northern areas.
"All those things combined still create confusion when you're saying 'do I want to support this one or that one?'"
Historical support for Liberals remains
PC party executive director Andrea Johnson said the poll results reflect the work Higgs has done to lead the province. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)
Johnson says the Liberal support must reflect historical voting patterns because Higgs's commitment to the entire province is clear.
"A rising tide lifts all ships," she says. "His focus is the entire province and his being the calm in the storm, leading us through the pandemic, gives people across the province confidence in him. How that relates at election time is anyone's guess."
Angus Reid's poll sampled 237 New Brunswickers between May 19 and 24. The results for the province had a margin of error of 6.4 percentage points.
Narrative's poll was conducted from May 1 to 20 and sampled 800 New Brunswickers. The satisfaction numbers are considered accurate within a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points in 19 out of 20 polls.
The margin of error for the voter intention numbers, based on a smaller sample of 503 respondents, was 4.4 percentage points.
Those margins of error would be even higher among the smaller regional and linguistic sub-samples.
The numbers represent a snapshot in time, so it's not a foregone conclusion the PC honeymoon will last.
Higgs has talked about using the COVID-19 recovery to springboard to a sweeping overhaul of how government works.
Such an initiative might not enjoy the same consensus support as his pandemic response, and could trigger the kind of backlash seen over the hospital plan.
"Whether these kinds of numbers would hold right through to an election is another question entirely," Grenier says.
About the Author
David Amos
"The overall 18-point PC lead provincially over the Liberals means a majority government for Higgs would "almost certainly be the result" if an election were held now, Grenier says."
Surprise Surprise Surprise
Methinks Higgy should have followed my prediction and had the writ dropped on the day the Legislature opened up Now it may turn into a long hot summer for all the political animals playing their parts in his circus N'esy Pas?
David Amos
Methinks the PC party executive director Andrea Johnson must recall our one and only conversation last year N'esy Pas?
David Amos
Methinks Higgy et al will be happy to know that I just got off the phone with Ralph Thomas and I really liked the guy for rather obvious reasons N'esy Pas?
Fred Sanford
Lou Bell
Gauvin was no more than a SANB insider in the 1st place . Who really expected he wouldn't jump ship at the 1st chance he got ? Tieing up the Francophone vote and getting enough of the Anglophone voters to get control of the Government goes back to the McKenna days when he sold out the Anglophones of N.B to the SANB solely for power. for power .
David Amos
Lou Bell
Time to call an election . The " spend like a drunken sailor " Liberals are seen as what they are . No platform , HIDDEN AGENDA'S ( see the UNDISCLOSED Phonie Games giveaway ) lets all know who and what they stand for . It came so blatantly clear the day after the Liberal defeat and Gallant high tailed it for Ottawa when it became evidently clear they were gonna be caught with their hands in the cookie jar !! Even Dom. tried steering clear although he was as much involved as anyone .
Mine les pas. Al eh foll red!
Gabriel Boucher
People tend to forget that it wasn't just Higgs who helped control the pandemic in NB. It was because of the all-party committee formed in government to help solve this crisis that we managed to control the situation at hand. Higgs was only implementing what the committee asked him to do. If we didn't have a minority situation in government, the story of how our premier would've handled this crisis would've been completely different than what we've seen so far. Basing his performance on how he managed this pandemic is not an ideal way of measuring his overall performance, since most of his actions weren't all his to begin with. I still didn't forget the time when he slashed funding to medical programs for post-secondary education, when the need of new nurses and doctors were high, months before COVID-19 struck. Or his lack of support towards nursing home workers earlier this year. Those stories seems to have been brushed off from some people's minds already.
I do not support the Liberal government if that's what your comment translates to.
You would prefer no cuts then; and to continue to spend more than we take in.
And please, for all our sakes, don't roll out that nebulous old left wing chestnut of making the Irvings pay their fair share, when you don't know what they pay for taxes, and how much IS fair.
Those medical program funds were to pay for supplies for med students to practice their skill upon, which was severely underfunded to begin with. Now students have to pay extra on their tuition to cover that cost, meaning that they're seeing a hike on their tuition due to that funding cut. Please note that tuition cost is already at an all-time high to begin with. This isn't about left-wing, right-wing. This is about poor decision making from our current government. If we really need more nurses and doctors, we shouldn't be penalizing our new recruits like that.
You intentionally omit the very reason the Irving Corporation was driven out of New Brunswick and set up the holding company in Bermuda was because Liberal Premier Louis Robichaud was trying to bring in an inheritance tax that would have robbed them of hundreds of millions of Dollars on the death of K.C. Irving.
There comes a time when liberal greed for someone else's money simply drives investors and entrepreneurs away.
Those tuitions are already heavily subsidized by government.Don't believe me? Compare them to that of international students who aren't eligible for them.
There's a point where people have to start carrying their own weight.
You support an inheritance tax grab?
You really are a Liberal, aren't you.
Methinks you should have checked my work with the taxman on the both sides of the 49th by now N'esy Pas?
val harris
Its a great time to believe in a poll during a Pademic.. Dr Russell is the main reason plus our population and no major airports... As for Higgs he has no growth in the north only one loss seat in shippagan.. He has no gains in Moncton either so where do the seats come from the peoples alliance is Austin done?
Joseph Vacher
JJ Carrier
CoR me once, shame on you...CoR me twice, shame on me...
Brian Robertson
Awwww.
Is that all you got?
How about some actual facts instead of smear.
Natalie Pugh
"Higgs's popularity has soared, but PCs still struggling to unlock the francophone vote" If Anglophones would unite like francophones do the PC wouldn't need the French vote!
Dan Stewart
Well it doesn't seem to bother the Francophones.
https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-may2020/
Premiers’ Performance: COVID-19 responses prompt massive increases in approval for most, but not all
Only Alberta’s Kenney and Manitoba’s Pallister have sub-majority approval this quarter
May 28, 2020 – Provincial leaders across the country have had one priority over the past three months: dealing with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus far, the reaction of their constituents has been positive – albeit to varying degrees.
Higgs and Legault
The two Premiers with the highest levels of approval this quarter are facing significantly different situations within their provinces when it comes to COVID-19.
In New Brunswick, Blaine Higgs and his Conservative government are overseeing a province with only one current active case and just 121 cases in total. The province is moving into its “yellow phase” which will allow larger gatherings and more economic activity in the coming weeks after undergoing a lockdown similar to the rest of the country. Four-in-five residents of New Brunswick say they approve of Higgs’ performance, up 32 points from February.
The epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada has been Quebec, with close to double the number of cases in that province compared to Ontario, despite five million fewer residents. Montreal and surrounding areas have made up the bulk of cases, which has led Quebec to open other areas of the province first while leaving measures in place in its metropolitan core. Concerns over the reopening risks in and around Montreal persist but Quebec residents are positive about the stewardship of Premier Francois Legault. Three-quarters (77%) approve of his performance this quarter, an increase of 19 points over last quarter.
Related: Nationalization supported after long-term care homes bear brunt of COVID-19 damage
Horgan and Ford
Seven-in-ten residents approve of British Columbia’s John Horgan (71%) and Ontario’s Doug Ford (69%). Ford, until now, has never held majority approval since his election – an uptick likely attributable to a change in character some have dubbed the “new Doug Ford”. From segments aimed to reduce stress during the pandemic, like “Cooking with Doug”, to auto-tuned songs of his speeches, Ontarians have seen a different side of their premier. Perhaps most importantly, previous ARI polling shows that most Ontarians are satisfied with his coronavirus response, with nine-in-ten saying he has done a “good job”.
Likewise, Horgan’s job performance managing the coronavirus outbreak on the west coast, sees a recovery after a dip in approval due to the Wet’suwet’en protests against the Coastal Gaslink pipeline that shook his province earlier in the year.
The two provinces, however, appear to be following different trajectories with respect to COVID-19 cases. In Ontario, daily cases have been more volatile, rising in the middle of May, which Health Minister Christine Elliot attributed to residents not following proper protocols on Mother’s Day two weeks prior. Ford himself was criticized after seeing members of his family who were not from his household on that weekend. More recently, Toronto Mayor John Tory apologized for not social distancing alongside thousands of others at Toronto’s Trinity Bellwoods Park. Cases have since dropped below 300 per day again, but the provincial government decided to delay an increase in the allowable group size in the province beyond the current five people.
In British Columbia, businesses have begun reopening, though public officials have asked residents to remain in their communities and keep travel close this summer. B.C. reported just 12 new cases from the May 23rd weekend. B.C.’s COVID-19 cases per 100,000 are just above 50, while Ontario’s is just over 190. Each are well below Quebec on a per capita comparison:
Moe, McNeil and Ball
In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe maintains his high approval (65%), though he has more company this quarter than has traditionally been the case. Moe is joined by two Atlantic Canadian Premiers whose approval has jumped more than 30 percentage points this quarter. Nova Scotia’s Stephen McNeil is approved of by 63 per cent of residents and Newfoundland and Labrador’s Dwight Ball, who had just weeks before the pandemic announced his resignation, is approved of by 57 per cent.
Nova Scotia has been the hardest hit Atlantic Canadian province, with 114 cases per 100,000, but reported just one new case of the disease on May 23, 24 and 25. Premier McNeil inspired internet videos and merchandise after he told residents to “stay the blazes home” in early April.
Kenney and Pallister
Just two premiers fail to break majority approval this quarter. Alberta’s United Conservative Party leader and Premier Jason Kenney is approved of by 48 per cent of Albertans, while Manitoba Conservative Party leader and Premier Brian Pallister garners the approval of 47 per cent in his own province.
Alberta is home to what is reportedly the largest single-facility outbreak of COVID-19 in North America, after more than 1,500 cases were linked to the Cargill meat-packing plan in High River. Kenney’s approval has not worsened but has enjoyed the considerable warming in approval that most other premiers enjoyed this quarter.
Meanwhile, Manitoba has among the fewest COVID-19 cases in the country. Premier Pallister has not enjoyed the considerable increase in approval that some other leaders have but enjoys a slight bump, up four points from last quarter.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
Trendlines are shown below
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
Click here for the full report including tables and methodology
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, Executive Director: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/new-brunswick/
Updated on Sep 13, 2020 at 10:51 pm ET
New Brunswick Poll Tracker
From CBC poll analyst Éric Grenier, the Poll Tracker aggregates all publicly available polls.
While the final polls of the campaign suggest the race has tightened between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals, the PCs have retained their lead and their vote distribution across the province is likely to be more efficient — as it was in 2018 when the party took one more seat than the Liberals despite placing second in the popular vote. This means the PCs are still in a strong position to contend for a majority government. Polls have indicated an uptick in Green support at the tail end of the campaign, while the People's Alliance has taken a big hit since 2018.
Poll averages
PC 36.4% -3.1
LIB 30.7% -0.7
GRN 19.2% +2.9
PA 7.8% +1.2
NDP 4.3% -0.8
OTH 1.6% +0.6
Arrows show change in party support since Sep. 10, 2020.
Seat projections
PC 28
LIB 16
GRN 4
PA 1
NDP 0
Probability of winning
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority
Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats
The provincial trend lines
Since 2018, the PCs have made gains at the expense of the People's Alliance and have largely held the inroads they made since the last election. The Liberals never recovered from their post-election slump and have been unable to gain any traction during the campaign. Instead, the Greens have picked up some of that departed Liberal vote and appear to be the only party with some positive momentum going into election day. Regional polling suggests the PCs are likely to pick up seats in southern, anglophone New Brunswick while the Liberals have held their advantage among francophones in the province.
Individual polls
All provincial opinion polls used in the Poll Tracker are listed below in reverse-chronological order. Click on the poll to view the full detailed report of the poll or the original source.
| Dates | Poll | PC | LIB | PA | GRN | NDP | OTH | Sample | Weight | Method | MOE * |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 - Sep 13, 2020 | NewForum Research | 37 | 30 | 8 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 880 | 38 | IVR | +/-3.3% |
| Sep 11 - Sep 12, 2020 | NewMainstreet Research | 37 | 30 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 369 | 18 | IVR | +/-5.1% |
| Sep 8 - Sep 12, 2020 | NewEKOS Research | 32 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 641 | 20 | IVR | +/-3.9% |
| Aug 12 - Sep 2, 2020 | MQO Research | 43 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 400 | 3 | TEL | +/-4.9% |
| Aug 27 - Aug 27, 2020 | Mainstreet / Maclean's-338Canada | 38 | 32 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 700 | 12 | IVR | +/-3.7% | |
| Aug 21 - Aug 26, 2020 | Léger / Acadie Nouvelle | 40 | 32 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 519 | 9 | NET | +/-4.3% |
| Aug 5 - Aug 23, 2020 | Narrative Research | 44 | 33 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 800 | 0 | TEL | +/-3.5% |
| May 29 - Jun 3, 2020 | Innovative Research Group | 33 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 201 | 0 | NET | +/-6.9% | |
| May 19 - May 24, 2020 | Angus Reid Institute | 39 | 26 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 199 | 0 | NET | +/-6.9% | |
| May 1 - May 20, 2020 | Narrative Research | 48 | 30 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 800 | 0 | TEL | +/-3.5% |
Scroll for additional content
Definition of Terms
Dates refers to the field date range of the survey.
Poll shows the pollster that conducted the survey and the media outlet (if applicable) that either commissioned the poll or first reported on it. When available, a link to the pollster's report is provided.
Sample refers to the number of total respondents interviewed, including undecideds.
Weight refers to the weight (out of 100) the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample size and the track record of the polling firm.
Method refers to the mode of contact of the polls:
- TEL: Polls conducted via the telephone with live operators conducting the interviews with randomly-dialed respondents.
- IVR: Polls conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions are played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers are given via the telephone keypad.
- NET: Polls conducted via the Internet. In most cases, respondents come from a panel of Canadians recruited in various ways, including over the telephone.
- T/N/I: Hybrid poll combining different methodologies, including telephone (T), online (N) and/or IVR (I).
* Margin of Error (MOE) lists the margin of error (in percentage points) of a corresponding probabilistic sample equal to the size of the poll's sample size.
https://angusreid.org/premiers-approval-october-2021/
Premiers’ Performance: Leader approval plummets in most provinces; Moe, Higgs suffer dramatic slides
Just one-in-five Albertans approve of Kenney, the lowest of any premier
October 13, 2021 – Be it fourth wave frustrations, pushback over mask and vaccine mandates, or post-COVID anxiety, Canadians have grown significantly less impressed with their provincial leaders since the summer.
Since June, all but one premier who was in power at the time has seen their respective levels of approval decline, according to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute. The lone exception? Ontario’s Doug Ford, with a statistically insignificant one-point increase on job performance from Ontarians.
The most sobering assessments from their constituencies are for Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs, both of whom have seen their approval crash nearly 20 points in the last quarter, from 61 and 55 per cent then to 43 and 38 per cent now respectively.
The news is not much better for Alberta’s Jason Kenney, currently the least approved-of premier among his own constituents at 22 per cent. Conversations about Kenney’s long-term political future have been ongoing for some time, and with this wave of data, are unlikely to abate.
Even among those enjoying majority-level good opinion, the trendline tells a story of declining satisfaction. At 56 per cent each, Quebec’s François Legault sees his approval plummet ten points – putting him at the same level as John Horgan in British Columbia (off seven points) and Newfoundland and Labrador’s Andrew Furey whose own approval is down six points from June.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX*
Part One: The rearguard: Kenney, Ford, Goertzen
Part Two: The newly fallen: Higgs, Moe
Part Three: The “leaders” of the pack: Horgan, Furey, Houston, Legault
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
Part One: The rearguard
Alberta:
It’s been a brutal fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta, and after characterizing the pandemic as “over” in July, Premier Jason Kenney is bearing the brunt of what was most definitely not the “best summer ever.” Hospitals in the province – home to nearly half of Canada’s active cases – now depend on the help of Canadian military nurses, as Alberta deals with impact of ICUs full of patients with the infection. Thanksgiving weekend brought no new restrictions to the province, instead Kenney pleaded with Albertans to avoid a repeat of last year when cases started to build after the holiday.
Just one-in-five Albertans approve of Kenney, a new low point in his two-year stint as premier. Despite this, Kenney has managed to hang onto his leadership of the United Conservative Party. He fought off a near caucus revolt by moving up a leadership review to next spring, despite some members calling for it sooner. The anger is not fully quelled, however, as some constituency associations are still looking for an earlier review of Kenney’s leadership.
Ontario:
The pandemic was initially kind to Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Seven-in-ten Ontarians professed they approved of him in the weeks after the pandemic was declared. It represented an all-time popularity peak in the PC Party of Ontario leader’s reign. Now just 36 per cent say the same.
Ford and the Conservatives have been embroiled in controversy over keeping two unvaccinated MPPs – both who say they aren’t vaccinated due to a medical exemption– in caucus. Ontario also remains one of the three provinces, alongside Alberta and New Brunswick, to not sign on to the federal $10-a-day childcare deal. But Ontario government officials say the $10 billion over five years the Liberal government is offering is not enough.
Against this backdrop, Ford is already gearing up for the next election. His party recently released a number of new ads which attempt to frame controversial construction projects such as Hwy. 413 and the Bradford bypass as key issues in the lead up to the next election to be held next year.
Manitoba:
Premier Brian Pallister stepped down after suggesting the colonization of Canada was done with good intentions– the third time Pallister made inflammatory comments about Indigenous people in the province. Kelvin Goertzen serves as interim premier as the party awaits the results of a historic leadership race, which will put a woman in the premier’s seat – either former Manitoba cabinet minister Heather Stefanson or former Harper cabinet minister Shelly Glover – for the first time in Manitoba’s history.
Part Two: The newly fallen
New Brunswick:
The number of New Brunswickers who approve of Blaine Higgs has dropped precipitously since the last quarter and now sits at only 38 per cent. This drop in approval is mirrored by the soaring number of COVID-19 cases across the province. With over 1,000 active cases reported in the province, hospitals have announced that they’re postponing some non-urgent procedures and moving their internal readiness level to “red alert.” Notably, New Brunswick was the first province to pop out of the Atlantic bubble, opening itself up to the rest of Canada before its neighbours in June.
Saskatchewan:
Much like neighbouring Alberta, the fourth wave has been rough for Saskatchewan. Vaccination rates in the province are lagging and Premier Scott Moe has been criticized by the opposition NDP for not doing enough to denounce the use of ivermectin– a medication used to deworm livestock – as a COVID-19 treatment.
The situation has become dire in recent months with record numbers of people in hospital and intensive care units due to COVID-19. Saskatchewan’s top health authority, Dr. Saqib Shahab, commented in late September that the province was experiencing “a mass casualty event every day.”
The province’s recent virus struggles appear to be reflected in the premier’s approval; for the first time in his tenure, Moe does not enjoy a majority level of approval, with only two-in-five (43%) saying they approve of him.
Part Three: The pack “leaders”
British Columbia:
Premier John Horgan’s popularity spiked after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but has fallen seven points from June and 15 points from a peak of 71 per cent in May 2020.
In between, there was a summer heat wave that killed at least 569 people and contributed to forest fires that razed significant portions of the province – including destroying the town of Lytton. Horgan’s government has been accused of not offering enough support for vulnerable populations during the heat wave, and not being responsive enough during the fire season.
Meanwhile, the healthcare system faces challenges from the plateau of the fourth wave of the pandemic, as well as staff shortages critics argue the government should have seen coming. While the trend has been negative since May of last year, Horgan still holds the approval of over half of British Columbians.
Newfoundland and Labrador:
If Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are happy with the way the government has handled the pandemic, they continue to grapple with a number of economic concerns including the highest unemployment rate in the country at 13.1 per cent and the lowest projection for economic growth at 2.4% of real GDP.
To deal with this gloomy economic outlook and the looming possibility that the province’s debt would be downgraded to junk status, the government introduced a number of tax increases and spending cuts over the summer.
In addition, the cost of electricity in the province is slated to rise by about 10 per cent, with officials projecting future increases of 2.25 per cent a year going forward. This in spite of a new deal with the federal government to bail out the overbudget and behind-schedule Muskrat Falls hydroelectricity project to the tune of $5.2 billion.
Against this backdrop, Premier Andrew Furey’s personal approval rating has slipped from 62 to 56 per cent:
Nova Scotia:
New Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is in his honeymoon period and currently enjoys approval from a majority of Nova Scotians (55%). He currently has few detractors (26% disapproval) while one-in-five (18%) have yet to form an opinion.
Quebec:
After enjoying relatively stable favourability rates over the last year, Premier François Legault’s approval falls to 56 per cent. While this still makes him one of the most approved of premiers in the country, he now shares the top spot with B.C.’s Horgan and Newfoundland and Labrador’s Furey.
This new low in approval comes as Legault continues to court controversy in la belle province. His government recently held consultations on the divisive proposed Bill 96, a revision of the province’s language laws, and drew criticism for its decision to prorogue parliament in a move decried as “window dressing” for the 2022 election. Outside of provincial politics, Legault’s choice to endorse Conservative leader Erin O’Toole for prime minister during the federal election was also ill-received.
Despite this, Legault still commands a majority approval rating and commentators have highlighted that the Coalition Avenir Québec’s dominance in almost every demographic segment of the electorate has no precedence in the province’s history.
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Sept. 29 to Oct. 3, 2021 among a representative randomized sample of 5,011 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
For the full questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/angus-reid-group-changes-name-ipsos-reid-corporation
Angus Reid Group Changes Name to Ipsos-Reid Corporation
Angus Reid Group Name Change Reflects membership in Paris-Based IPSOS, fastest growing research company in the world
VANCOUVER, OCTOBER 2, 2000 - A Canadian institution is changing its name.
After 21 years as The Angus Reid Group, Canada's premier market and public opinion company will officially be known as Ipsos-Reid. This reflects the terms of a deal announced in March when Paris-based Ipsos, described by Inside Research magazine as the "fastest growing market research company in the world," acquired the Angus Reid Group.
"After 20 years of commenting on the news and current events as the Angus Reid Group, we're making some news of our own," said Dr. Angus Reid, who retains his title as Chairman and CEO. Reid is also a member of the parent company's global management board.
"We decided to become part of the Ipsos Group because of the remarkable similarities between the two companies and how we run our business. We share the same values about quality and we provide clients with a broader sociological context, not just data. Ipsos is also owned and managed by research professionals. Most important, Ipsos believes in strong local management supported by member companies around the world offering global data collection and analysis techniques."
The company also announced the appointment of Don Miller as its new chief financial officer. Miller joins Ipsos-Reid in Vancouver, where he held a similar position with advertising agency, Palmer Jarvis DDB.
Established in 1979, Ipsos-Reid is Canada's leading market research and public opinion company. It is best known for the National Angus Reid Poll, the most widely quoted source of public opinion in the country. Founded by Dr. Angus Reid, Ipsos-Reid has conducted extensive market and social research in 80 countries and in 40 languages, and serves clients around the world through more than 300-professionals and 1,000 data collection staff in ten offices. The company is a member of the Paris-based Ipsos Group, ranked among the top ten research companies in the world, with specialties in advertising, media, customer satisfaction, public opinion and market research.
For more information, please contact
John Wright
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900
Angus Reid, Chairman
The Angus Reid Institute was founded in October 2014 by Dr. Angus Reid, Canada’s best-known and longest-practicing pollster. He’s spent more than four decades asking people what they think and feel about top social, governance and economic issues. From 1979 to 2001, he was founder and CEO of Angus Reid Group, which grew into the largest research firm in Canada, with revenues of $60 million. It was sold to Ipsos SA in 2000. In 2003 he joined his son Andrew’s research software start up, Vision Critical, as CEO. When he retired as executive chair in 2014 Vision Critical had 600 employees worldwide and revenues over $100 million.
Angus has written numerous columns on economic, social and governance issues and well as the best-seller; “Shakedown: How the New Economy is Changing our Lives” (1996). He has a B.A. and an M.A. in Sociology from the University of Manitoba, and in 1974 he received a Ph.D. in Sociology from Carleton University in Ottawa.
He is the recipient of a Canada Council Doctoral Fellowship, the Entrepreneur of the Year award, and was inducted into the Marketing Hall of Legends (2010).
Shachi Kurl, President
Shachi Kurl is President of the Angus Reid Institute, Canada’s non-profit foundation committed to independent research. She works with public opinion data to further public knowledge and enhance the national understanding of issues that matter to Canada and the world.
Kurl is often found offering analysis on CBC’s “Power and Politics”, in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Globe and Mail, and on the editorial pages of the Ottawa Citizen, among other places. In October 2020, she moderated BC’s only televised provincial election debate, presented by the British Columbia Broadcast Consortium.
She spent the first part of her career as political reporter and holds a degree in Journalism and Political Science from Carleton University.
Kurl is a recipient of the prestigious Jack Webster Award for Best TV Reporting. Along with former Australian and UK Prime Ministers Julia Gillard and Margaret Thatcher, she is an Alumnus of the US State Department’s International Visitor Leadership Program. She is a national Vice Chair of the Canadian Cancer Society.
Kurl moderated the 2021 English language leaders debate during the 44th federal election. She also won the Industry Marvel Award from Darpan Magazine in October of that year.
Dave Korzinski, Research Director
Dave Korzinski is Research Director at the Angus Reid Institute. Dave joined the Institute in 2015 after earning his Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Economics from the University of British Columbia – Okanagan, and Master’s degree in Public Policy from Simon Fraser University.
Dave grew up in Kelowna, BC before settling in Vancouver, and brings experience in research and writing as well as a background in survey design and qualitative statistics to the Angus Reid Institute team.
Mag Burns, Senior Research Consultant
Mag Burns brings over 30 years of research experience to the table. She first joined Angus Reid in the early 1980’s, fresh from completing undergraduate studies at the U of T. Mag spent the next 20 years managing national polling programs and syndicated public policy studies for the Angus Reid Group. After 2000, Mag’s focus migrated to Ipsos-Reid’s international operations, directing a team specialized in offshore data collection. She retired from Ipsos Operations in 2010 as Senior Vice President of Global Research Services. At the Angus Reid Institute, Mag lends her expertise as needed to regular and ad-hoc polling endeavours.
Gregor Sharp, Senior Research Associate
A PhD candidate in Political Science at the University of British Columbia, Gregor Sharp joined the Angus Reid Institute as a Senior Research Associate in 2021. In addition to his expertise in International Relations and Canadian Politics, Gregor has extensive experience designing and executing qualitative and mixed-method research projects.
Gregor also holds a master’s degree from Sciences Po where he focused on diplomacy and intelligence studies.
Jon Roe, Research Associate
Jon Roe is a Research Associate at the Angus Reid Institute. Prior to joining the Institute in 2021, Jon was a journalist with the Calgary Herald and Calgary Sun, including an extended stint as an editor with the Herald’s weekly arts and life magazine, Swerve.
Jon has lived in Calgary for most of his life and graduated in 2011 from the University of Calgary with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics.
Taylor Finlay, Marketing and Administrative Assistant
After joining the Institute this year, Taylor has become a point of contact for meetings and brings an organizational skillset to the ARI team.
Taylor is a 3rd year student studying Commerce at the University of British Columbia. She hopes to receive her Bachelor's Degree with a Major in Marketing and Concentration in Data Analytics.
Ed Morawski, Senior Fellow
Ed has spent the past two decades in leadership positions at Market Research companies. Before launching Angus Reid Group with Dr. Angus Reid, Ed launched the research and consulting practice at Vision Critical in 2006. A position he held for 10 years and included 4 years as co-CEO (with Dr. Reid) of Vision Critical Communications. In 2016, Ed led the successful sale of the Vision Critical’s research and consulting practice for $60 million to UK based Primary Capital Partners LLP.
Prior to joining Vision Critical, Ed worked for Ipsos North America as Senior Vice President and became a leading expert in pharmaceutical brand equity and brand management research for global companies. Prior to Ipsos, Ed worked with Angus Reid at the original Angus Reid Group in Vancouver where he was responsible for marketing research, advertising research and public affairs research and forecasting.
Ed has a BA in Economics from Queen’s University in Ontario and an MA in Public Policy from the University of British Columbia. He has appeared on BBC Television, BBC Radio and CBC Television providing insight and commentary on public opinion with regard to a variety of issues. He has also written several whitepapers and opinion pieces in a number of publications.