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David Raymond Amos‏ @DavidRayAmos
Replying to @DavidRayAmos @alllibertynews and 49 others


Methinks the PC party executive director Andrea Johnson must recall our one and only conversation last year N'esy Pas?


https://davidraymondamos3.blogspot.com/2020/06/higgss-popularity-has-soared-but-pcs.html



#nbpoli#cdnpoli



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-analysis-francophones-maintain-political-distancing-from-pcs-1.5598444

Higgs's popularity has soared, but PCs still struggling to unlock the francophone vote

PC minority government is scoring record-high approval ratings

Jacques Poitras· CBC News· Posted: Jun 05, 2020 5:00 AM AT



A political poll has showed Premier Blaine Higgs is enjoying an unprecedented political honeymoon because of his handling of COVID-19. (CBC)

Premier Blaine Higgs heads into summer enjoying an unprecedented political honeymoon because of his handling of COVID-19.

But it's not yet enough for a breakthrough among francophone voters, who are still practising political distancing from the Progressive Conservatives.

Overall, the PC minority government, which was on the verge of being toppled just three months ago, is scoring record-high approval ratings in the midst of the pandemic.

The Angus Reid Institute recently had Higgs with the highest approval rating of any premier in Canada at 80 per cent.

And Narrative Research, formerly Corporate Research Associates, says the government's 81 per cent satisfaction result is the highest it has ever recorded in New Brunswick since it began polling more than 40 years ago.

Even 74 per cent of francophone voters, chronically cool to Higgs since he became PC leader in 2016, told Narrative they're mostly or completely satisfied with his job performance.

Yet many of those satisfied francophones remain reluctant to actually vote for him.

The Liberals had 51 per cent support compared to 32 per cent for the PCs among decided francophone voters.

"Among francophones in the north, we're seeing an increase in support for the PCs, but not necessarily enough that we can see them winning many seats in northern New Brunswick," says the CBC's polling analyst Éric Grenier.

Majority for PCs if election held now

CBC’s polling analyst Éric Grenier said while support for Premier Higgs by francophones in northern New Brunswick has increased it may not lead to winning more seats in the next election.

The overall 18-point PC lead provincially over the Liberals means a majority government for Higgs would "almost certainly be the result" if an election were held now, Grenier says.

But the seat gains would most likely come in the Fredericton and Moncton areas.

The Liberals say the high poll numbers reflect satisfaction with the province's collective effort on COVID-19, one that includes Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell and, not incidentally, an all-party cabinet committee on which Liberal leader Kevin Vickers sits.

"It's a combination, it's not one specific government or one specific political party," says Liberal MLA and health critic Jean-Claude d'Amours.

But PC party executive director Andrea Johnson says a lot of the credit goes to Higgs.
"I think it shows the majority of the province has confidence in how the premier has led this government and the province through this pandemic."

D'Amours says the high marks for Higgs also reflect a national phenomenon.
"People are looking for their politicians to take care of them, and if you look across the country, the approval rating of each government is pretty high."

Grenier agrees and says another aspect of the New Brunswick trend is matched elsewhere: many voters are satisfied with their provincial governments but won't necessarily cast ballots to re-elect them.

"Even though they might like the way a leader is handling this particular issue doesn't mean they would vote for them in an election," Grenier says.

Francophone support for PCs has grown

Liberal MLA and health critic Jean-Claude d’Amours said the high rating is a combination of all the work done by the all-party committee. (CBC)

That's not to take away from the PC progress among francophone voters. The 32 per cent support is double what Narrative found last fall.

At that time, the PCs were at 16 per cent among francophones, in third place behind the Greens at 20 per cent and the Liberals at 55 per cent.

But the gains are unlikely to allow the PCs to challenge Liberal dominance in heavily francophone ridings.

"The [Liberal] lead isn't as big as it was just a few months ago," Grenier says.

"But a lot of the seats they won in northern New Brunswick were won by such huge margins that even if we see a 10 to 20 point swing between the two parties, it still might not be enough to flip a lot of those seats."

When Narrative measured party support in northern ridings, as opposed to among francophone voters, the Liberal lead over the PCs was 43-39, within the poll's margin of error and thus a statistical tie.

Grenier says that might allow the PCs to make gains in northern ridings with mixed English-French populations.

PC hopes of broadening support among francophones have been hampered by the premier's own inability to speak French and his involvement three decades ago with the anti-bilingualism Confederation of Regions Party.

He has said repeatedly that his views on language rights have changed since then.

The PCs elected a single francophone MLA in the 2018 election, Robert Gauvin in Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou, but he quit the party in February to sit as an independent.

Gauvin left over a plan to close some small-hospital emergency departments at night, saying  the government wasn't sensitive to the realities of francophone and northern New Brunswickers.

The hospital plan was quickly reversed but d'Amours says the controversy, and other concerns such as some Service New Brunswick outlets remaining closed, explain the poor PC results in francophone and northern areas.

"All those things combined still create confusion when you're saying 'do I want to support this one or that one?'"

Historical support for Liberals remains

 
PC party executive director Andrea Johnson said the poll results reflect the work Higgs has done to lead the province. (Jacques Poitras/CBC)

Johnson says the Liberal support must reflect historical voting patterns because Higgs's commitment to the entire province is clear.

"A rising tide lifts all ships," she says. "His focus is the entire province and his being the calm in the storm, leading us through the pandemic, gives people across the province confidence in him. How that relates at election time is anyone's guess."

Angus Reid's poll sampled 237 New Brunswickers between May 19 and 24. The results for the province had a margin of error of 6.4 percentage points.

Narrative's poll was conducted from May 1 to 20 and sampled 800 New Brunswickers. The satisfaction numbers are considered accurate within a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points in 19 out of 20 polls.

The margin of error for the voter intention numbers, based on a smaller sample of 503 respondents, was 4.4 percentage points.
Those margins of error would be even higher among the smaller regional and linguistic sub-samples.
The numbers represent a snapshot in time, so it's not a foregone conclusion the PC honeymoon will last.

Higgs has talked about using the COVID-19 recovery to springboard to a sweeping overhaul of how government works.

Such an initiative might not enjoy the same consensus support as his pandemic response, and could trigger the kind of backlash seen over the hospital plan.

"Whether these kinds of numbers would hold right through to an election is another question entirely," Grenier says.



 



Commenting is now closed for this story.





David Amos
"The overall 18-point PC lead provincially over the Liberals means a majority government for Higgs would "almost certainly be the result" if an election were held now, Grenier says."

Surprise Surprise Surprise

Methinks Higgy should have followed my prediction and had the writ dropped on the day the Legislature opened up Now it may turn into a long hot summer for all the political animals playing their parts in his circus N'esy Pas? 











David Amos
Methinks the PC party executive director Andrea Johnson must recall our one and only conversation last year N'esy Pas?



David Amos
Methinks Higgy et al will be happy to know that I just got off the phone with Ralph Thomas and I really liked the guy for rather obvious reasons N'esy Pas?


Fred Sanford 


























Lou Bell
Gauvin was no more than a SANB insider in the 1st place . Who really expected he wouldn't jump ship at the 1st chance he got ? Tieing up the Francophone vote and getting enough of the Anglophone voters to get control of the Government goes back to the McKenna days when he sold out the Anglophones of N.B to the SANB solely for power. for power .


David Amos 


























Lou Bell
Time to call an election . The " spend like a drunken sailor " Liberals are seen as what they are . No platform , HIDDEN AGENDA'S ( see the UNDISCLOSED Phonie Games giveaway ) lets all know who and what they stand for . It came so blatantly clear the day after the Liberal defeat and Gallant high tailed it for Ottawa when it became evidently clear they were gonna be caught with their hands in the cookie jar !! Even Dom. tried steering clear although he was as much involved as anyone .




























Gabriel Boucher
 People tend to forget that it wasn't just Higgs who helped control the pandemic in NB. It was because of the all-party committee formed in government to help solve this crisis that we managed to control the situation at hand. Higgs was only implementing what the committee asked him to do. If we didn't have a minority situation in government, the story of how our premier would've handled this crisis would've been completely different than what we've seen so far. Basing his performance on how he managed this pandemic is not an ideal way of measuring his overall performance, since most of his actions weren't all his to begin with. I still didn't forget the time when he slashed funding to medical programs for post-secondary education, when the need of new nurses and doctors were high, months before COVID-19 struck. Or his lack of support towards nursing home workers earlier this year. Those stories seems to have been brushed off from some people's minds already.
































val harris
Its a great time to believe in a poll during a Pademic.. Dr Russell is the main reason plus our population and no major airports... As for Higgs he has no growth in the north only one loss seat in shippagan.. He has no gains in Moncton either so where do the seats come from the peoples alliance is Austin done?


Joseph Vacher






























JJ Carrier
CoR me once, shame on you...CoR me twice, shame on me...


Brian Robertson 





























Natalie Pugh
"Higgs's popularity has soared, but PCs still struggling to unlock the francophone vote" If Anglophones would unite like francophones do the PC wouldn't need the French vote!


Dan Stewart 







https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/temporary-resident-loses-medicare-after-processing-delay-1.5600662

Moncton woman's medicare benefits arrive just days ahead of baby

Temporary residents experience long delays in visa renewal process

Mia Urquhart· CBC News· Posted: Jun 06, 2020 7:00 AM AT



The Bertolacini family, Giselle, Miguel and Marcelo, before the arrival of baby Noah. (ANDRE INC)

With her second child on the way, the last thing Giselle Bertolacini thought she'd have to worry about was paying for her scheduled C-section.

But after her visa expired in March, that's exactly what she was facing.

She began to panic about how she was going to pay the mounting prenatal fees and the cost of her June 2 delivery.

"It was a tough situation because every time I went to my doctor, the secretary was there to say that they were not being paid, and I would have to pay for my consultation."

Bertolacini was frustrated because she thought she had done everything right.

She moved to Moncton from Brazil in 2018 with her husband and young son. As temporary residents, they were covered under New Brunswick's medicare program.

• Face coverings mandatory in public buildings starting Tuesday

In December, she applied to renew her visa — three months before it was set to expire.

She never dreamed it would take so long to process her application.

When her visa expired in March, so did her medicare.

But because she applied before her visa expired, she believed she was covered by "implied status," which stipulates that as long as a temporary resident applies before their visa expires, their status is automatically extended until a formal decision is issued.

Bertolacini believed that extension would also apply to medicare benefits.

"But that's not what happens in real life because when your visa expires, you SIN number and your medicare expire at the same time," she said.


Giselle, Miguel and Marcelo Bertolacini. (Submitted by Giselle Bertolacini)

Bertolacini wasn't exactly sure how much it would cost her family to deliver their second child, but she knew it would be more than she could afford — $3,000 per day for her hospital stay, another $2,000 per day for her baby, she was told. Add to that, the cost of the physician, the anesthesiologist, and other related fees.

"It was tough because we felt like we were left all alone here. Even though we worked full time and we paid our taxes just like any other Canadian or any other immigrant, we didn't have access to the benefits we were supposed to have," she said.

But good news arrived last week.

The Bertolacinis got a call from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to tell them their application had been approved. That meant — with only days to spare before the scheduled C-section — their medicare benefits were reinstated.

And more good news arrived his week.

On Tuesday, Noah Bertolacini arrived by caesarean section, weighing in at 3.83 kg (eight pounds seven ounces) — and all costs were paid by medicare, said Giselle Bertolacini.
 

Noah Bertolacini was delivered by C-section on Tuesday, just days after his family's medicare benefits were reinstated. (Sumbitted by Giselle Bertolacini)

She said she and Noah are doing well. She just wishes she didn't have to fight so hard in the latter stages of her pregnancy, and she hopes her experience will help other families — and perhaps even change the system.

"I hope that other families will not have to struggle the way we struggled in such a special moment. When you prepare to receive a newborn, it's a moment of happiness."

She said the last thing expectant mothers need is the added stress of wondering how to pay the bills.

"I hope other families will not have to struggle with this kind of situation in the future and I also hope that my kids will learn from it as well — that you have to fight for what is right and being successful in life requires lots of effort."Giselle Bertolacini is scheduled to deliver a baby by c-section on Tuesday. 9:59

Not alone

The executive director of the Multicultural Association of Greater Moncton says she knows of other women who find themselves in a similar position.

Myriam Mekni is worried that if the processing system continues to plod along at the current rate, other people will find themselves having to pay for medical care out of pocket.

Mekni said she also experienced "implied status" as she waited for her application to be processed.
She said the federal government, which is responsible for immigration, has left it up to provinces to decide what to do about medicare coverage during the implied status period.

Some provinces, including Alberta, have decided to extend coverage, but Mekni said New Brunswick has not.

She said her organization has been trying to convince the province to do so.

• Alberta extends health care to uninsured foreigners with lapsed work permits during pandemic

"There was a lot of conversations," she told CBC's Information Morning in Moncton on Monday.

"We haven't had a lot of response from the health department or medicare when we tried to resolve this situation and when we tried to advocate for other clients."

She said her group has only received "generic responses" from government officials.

"So I don't know if the health department, or medicare specifically, are making an effort to change this."


Attempts by CBC to clarify the situation with New Brunswick's Department of Health weren't successful.

On Friday, department spokesperson Bruce Macfarlane said, "For privacy purposes, medicare cannot comment on individual cases. Should an individual have new information on their status such as a VISA, the individual should contact medicare immediately with the most-up-to-date information."

He did not answer the question of whether medicare coverage is extended during the "implied status" period.


  



Commenting is now closed for this story.




David Amos  
Methinks the lady should count her lucky stars Higgy et all appear to enjoy keeping a "Stay" on my right to Health Care but I am saving the bills in order for me to sue them to pay me back tenfold Perhaps then they won't laugh so hard at me N'esy Pas?


Ray Oliver




















Dave Corbin
 "We haven't had a lot of response from the health department or medicare when we tried to resolve this situation and when we tried to advocate for other clients."
Even New Brunswickers often recieve a "no response" from our health department. Its the culture here to not respond.